2025年9月2日
Fighter jets will roar over Beijing and tanks will rumble past Tiananmen Square on Wednesday when China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, presides over an elaborate military parade designed to stoke national pride and show off China’s diplomatic heft.
周三,战斗机将在北京上空呼啸,坦克隆隆驶过天安门广场,中国最高领导人习近平将主持一场精心设计、旨在激发民族自豪感并展示外交影响力的阅兵式。
More than two dozen leaders, mostly authoritarian, are expected to attend. Joining Mr. Xi are President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran — the first time that the leaders of the four countries will gather in the same place.
预计将有20多位领导人观礼阅兵式,其中大部分是威权国家的领导人。与习近平一同出席的包括俄罗斯总统普京、朝鲜独裁者金正恩和伊朗总统佩泽什基安——这是这四个国家的领导人首次齐聚一堂。
China is using the parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The event is designed to showcase some of the nation’s newest weapons and draw attention to what the ruling Communist Party asserts are China’s unrecognized contributions to the defeat of Imperial Japan.
中国利用此次阅兵来纪念“二战”结束80周年。此次活动除了用于展示一些最新武器,还将突出中国为打败日本帝国所做出的贡献,执政的共产党认为这种贡献没有得到充分认识。
Security has been tightened across Beijing in preparation for the parade. Rehearsals have involved more than 40,000 soldiers, civilians and staff. The parade route will proceed along Chang’an Avenue, a central thoroughfare that passes Tiananmen Square and the entrance to the Forbidden City.
为了这次阅兵式,北京的安保措施已全面升级。彩排动员了逾4万人参加,包括士兵、平民和工作人员。阅兵队伍将沿长安街行进,这是一条经过天安门广场和故宫入口的中央干道。
Dictators, Neighbors, and One NATO State
独裁者、邻国和一个北约国家
Other guests who are expected to attend include Min Aung Hlaing, the chief of Myanmar’s junta and President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo, leaders who hail from countries with abysmal human rights records. Only seven of the 25 countries whose leaders are attending are considered free or partly-free by Freedom House, a Washington-based advocacy group.
预计出席的其他嘉宾包括缅甸军政府首脑敏昂莱和刚果共和国总统萨苏——两个人权记录极糟糕的国家。根据总部位于华盛顿的倡导团体“自由之家”的评估,25个有领导人出席的国家中,只有七个国家被认为是自由或部分自由的。
There is one notable outlier, Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, a NATO member state considered one of the freest countries in Central Europe. Mr. Fico, a longtime critic of Western support for Ukraine, has worked hard to forge better diplomatic and economic ties with Beijing.
有一个引人注目的例外,那就是斯洛伐克总理菲佐。作为北约成员国,斯洛伐克被视为中欧最自由的国家之一。长期批评西方支持乌克兰的菲佐一直努力与中国建立更紧密的外交和经济联系。
Still, the convergence of so many decidedly undemocratic leaders “underscores China’s pull with autocrats as the world’s leading authoritarian power,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis.
尽管如此,如此多明显的非民主国家领导人的聚集“凸显了中国作为世界领先的威权国家对专制统治者的吸引力”,亚洲协会中国分析中心研究员牛犇(Neil Thomas)说。
Also telling, Mr. Thomas said, was that leaders from 11 of the 14 countries bordering China were represented, including Mongolia, Laos and Nepal, offering “a vivid demonstration that China is already a regional superpower.”
牛犇还指出,引人注目的是,与中国接壤的14个国家中有11个国家的领导人出席,包括蒙古、老挝和尼泊尔,“直观地表明中国已经是地区超级大国。”
What to Expect
预期看点
If the last victory parade commemorating World War II in Beijing 2015 is any guide, viewers can expect a heavily choreographed show with goose-stepping soldiers, bands playing stirring martial music and military aircraft flying overhead in tight formation releasing plumes of colorful smoke.
如果以2015年北京纪念“二战”胜利的阅兵式为参考,那么观众可以期待一场精心编排的表演,包括正步行进的士兵、演奏激昂军乐的乐队,以及紧密编队从空中飞过并喷出彩色烟雾的军机。
上个月在北京举行的阅兵式彩排。
Mr. Xi will likely review the assembled troops through the sunroof of a Chinese-made Red Flag limousine affixed with microphones which he will use to periodically belt, “Greetings, Comrades!”
习近平很可能会乘坐一辆安装麦克风的中国造红旗轿车,通过天窗检阅列队的部队,并不时高声喊出:“同志们好!”
Mr. Xi will then join the visiting world leaders to watch the rest of the parade. In 2015, World War II veterans were included in the event, waving from roofless buses.
随后,习近平将与来访的各国领导人一同观礼阅兵的其余部分。2015年的阅兵安排了“二战”老兵参加,他们从没有顶棚的巴士上向人群挥手致意。
Nationalism and a Recasting of the War
民族主义与战争叙事的重塑
The parade is the centerpiece of a broader campaign by the Communist Party to fan nationalistic and anti-Japanese sentiment. The party has promoted movies that focused on the brutality of the Japanese Imperial Army, packing movie theaters across the country, priming audiences for Mr. Xi’s message.
这次阅兵是共产党更大范围宣传运动的核心,这场运动旨在煽动民族主义和反日情绪。共产党大力宣传反映日军暴行的电影在全国各地吸引了大量的观众,为习近平所传递的信息提前营造氛围。
That fervor is politically useful to the party. By reviving memories of wartime trauma, the party has a way to rally domestic support in the face of a prolonged economic slump, youth unemployment and tensions with the United States. The campaign has also raised frictions with Japan. Last week, Beijing lodged a protest with Tokyo over reports that Japan had asked European and Asian governments not to attend the parade.
这种热情对中共来说在政治上极为有用。面对长期经济低迷、青年失业以及与美国关系紧张,中共通过唤起人们对战时创伤的记忆找到了一种凝聚国内支持的方式。这场宣传运动也加剧了与日本的摩擦。上周,北京向东京提出了抗议,因为有报道称日本要求欧洲和亚洲各国政府不要参加阅兵。
中国借助这次纪念活动来激发爱国情绪,并把中共塑造成民族的救星。
Mr. Xi is expected to highlight the larger role China played in World War II, something that is not typically recognized in the West. The recasting of the war serves two purposes: to cast the party as the nation’s savior, even though historians say the Nationalists did most of the fighting, and to buttress Beijing’s claims to territory — especially Taiwan — that it says Western nations have denied in the war’s aftermath.
预计习近平将着重强调中国在“二战”中发挥了更大作用——这是西方通常没有给予充分认可的说法。对战争的重新诠释有两个目的:一是将共产党塑造成民族的救星,尽管历史学家称大部分战斗是国民党进行的;二是为了强化北京的领土主张——特别是对台湾的主张,北京声称西方国家在战后否认了这些主张。
Modern Firepower for a ‘World-Class’ Military
“建成世界一流军队”的现代武器展示
The parade is expected to showcase some of China’s newest weapons that will help the country achieve its goal of building a “world-class” military.
此次阅兵预计将展示中国的一些最新型的武器装备,这些武器将帮助中国实现建成世界一流军队的目标。
That includes nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, next generation tanks and a host of uncrewed weapon systems. China says it needs a top notch army to maintain peace and to defend itself from outside aggressors such as the United States.
其中包括具备核打击能力的洲际弹道导弹、新一代坦克,以及大量无人武器系统。中国表示,它需要一支顶尖军队来维护和平,并抵御美国等外部侵略者。
Many of the new weapons expected to be unveiled at the parade appear designed to advance China’s capabilities for an invasion of Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing. Those include hypersonic anti-ship missiles that could potentially thwart the U.S. Navy coming to Taiwan’s defense, and combat drones that can help China’s military better navigate Taiwan’s mountainous terrain.
预计在阅兵中亮相的许多新武器似乎是为了提升中国武装侵台的能力——中国声称这个自治岛屿是其领土的一部分。这些装备包括可用于阻止美国海军驰援台湾的高超音速反舰导弹,以及能帮助中国军队在台湾多山地形中更好作战的无人机。
While the show of force is meant to highlight China’s might, it also comes at a time when the country’s military leadership is in disarray from a crackdown on corruption. Three of the seven seats on the Central Military Commission, the Communist Party’s oversight council that controls the armed forces, appear to be empty after members were arrested or disappeared.
虽然此次武力展示旨在彰显中国的实力,但也发生在该国军事领导层因反腐打击而陷入混乱之际。中共的最高军事领导机构中央军事委员会的七个席位中,似乎已有三个因成员被捕或失踪而空缺。