When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, sits down with President Trump to address their worsening trade tensions, he will also be pursuing another, longer goal: persuading the American president to soften U.S. support for Taiwan.

当中国领导人习近平与特朗普总统坐下来商讨不断恶化的贸易紧张局势时，他还将追求一个更长远的目标：说服美国总统软化美国对台湾的支持。

Mr. Trump has said that he wants to focus on trade when he meets Mr. Xi in South Korea, even if the Chinese leader presses him on Taiwan, the democratically governed island roughly 100 miles off China’s coast that Beijing claims as its own.

特朗普曾表示，即使习近平在韩国会晤时就台湾问题施压，他也仍将重点放在贸易议题上。台湾这个民主治理的岛屿距中国海岸约160公里，北京宣称对其拥有主权。

But the diplomatic maneuvering raises a crucial question: how negotiable is American support for Taiwan, especially given Mr. Trump’s sometimes dismissive comments about the island? Chinese officials, analysts said, may seek at this and other meetings to draw Mr. Trump out on the issue, to have him clarify his position on Taiwan.

但这一外交博弈引出了一个关键问题：美国对台湾的支持有多大的谈判空间，尤其是考虑到特朗普有时对台湾发表轻蔑的言论？分析人士称，中方官员可能借此会晤及其他场合引导特朗普就台湾问题表态，迫使其阐明立场。

Mr. Xi probably wants Mr. Trump to state that the United States does not support independence for Taiwan, experts said. Saying that would echo what previous U.S. administrations have said, but a clear statement of it by the U.S. president would be welcomed by Beijing, which has for years accused Washington of, in effect, encouraging Taiwan toward independence. Earlier this year, the State Department altered a web page about Taiwan, removing the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence,” drawing loud complaints from China.

专家指出，习近平很可能希望特朗普明确表态美国不支持台湾独立。这样的表态虽与历届美国政府立场一致，但若由美国总统明确宣示，将受到北京的欢迎——多年来中国一直指责华盛顿实质上在鼓励台湾走向独立。今年早些时候，国务院修改了关于台湾的网页内容，删除了“我们不支持台湾独立”的表述，引发中国强烈抗议。

Taiwan relies on American political and military support, so any language from an American president that is seen as diluting Washington’s support for the island could be used by Beijing to try to set the terms for future discussions. If Mr. Trump said that the United States “opposes” Taiwan independence, that would be a bigger win for Beijing.

台湾依赖美国的政治和军事支持，因此美国总统任何被视为削弱华盛顿对该岛支持的言论，都可能被北京用来试图设定未来讨论的条件。如果特朗普表示美国“反对”台湾独立，对北京来说是一个更大的胜利。

“Once something is said that helps China’s case, it treats that as the new base line,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, who co-wrote an assessment of how Taiwan may figure in talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi. “They would try to lock in all successors to that precedent.”

“一旦出现有利于中国的表态，中方便将其视为新的基准线，”纽约外交关系委员会亚洲研究专家戴维·萨克斯指出，他曾参与撰写了一份评估报告，分析特朗普和中国领导人的会谈中可能会如何提及台湾。“中方将试图让所有继任者遵循这一先例。”

本月，台湾士兵驻守在金门岛——这座距中国海岸仅数公里的小岛由台湾控制。

For China, the meeting in South Korea on Thursday appears to lay the groundwork for a full summit between the leaders. Mr. Trump has said that he intends to travel to China early next year and that he also wants to host Mr. Xi in the United States.

对中国而言，周四在韩国举行的会晤似乎为两国领导人之间的全面峰会奠定了基础。特朗普曾表示计划明年初访华，并希望邀请习近平访美。

“The Chinese probably do see a sequencing: that they want some kind of cease-fire in the trade war and a de-escalation to start, and then they want to open up the larger geostrategic issues,” Mr. Sacks said. “I think Taiwan is the center of that.”

“中国人可能确实看到了一个行动顺序：他们希望在贸易战中实现某种停火，开始缓和局势，然后他们希望开始讨论更大的地缘战略问题，”萨克斯说。“我认为台湾问题是其核心。”

Since Mr. Trump took office this year, his administration has scaled back some dealings with Taiwan, the kinds of exchanges to which China vehemently objects. Washington refused to let Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, make a stopover visit in New York. It downgraded talks between Taiwanese and U.S. defense officials and moved the meeting from Washington to Alaska, the Financial Times reported.

自特朗普今年上任以来，其政府已经减少了与台湾的一些往来，此类往来正是中国强烈反对的。据《金融时报》报道，华盛顿拒绝让台湾总统赖清德在纽约进行过境访问，同时降低了台美防务官员会谈的级别，并将会议地点从华盛顿改至阿拉斯加。

China thinks U.S. policy on Taiwan will evolve in its favor, said Amanda Hsiao, a director for China at the Eurasia Group. “What they see is the potential for U.S. commitments to Taiwan to weaken over time because of the shift in balance of power that they believe increasingly advantages China.”

中国认为美国的对台政策将朝着有利于自己的方向发展，欧亚集团中国事务主管萧嫣然说。“他们看到的是，随着时间的推移，美国对台湾的承诺可能会减弱，因为他们认为力量平衡的转变越来越有利于中国。”

Mr. Trump has complained that Taiwan spends too little on its military and unfairly dominates semiconductor production. (Taiwan has already promised to spend more than 3 percent of its economic output on defense by next year; Mr. Trump and his officials have said that number should reach 5 or even 10 percent.)

特朗普抱怨台湾在军事开支过低，在半导体生产方面占据不公平的优势。（台湾已经承诺到明年将其经济产出的3%以上用于国防；特朗普及其官员表示，这个数字应该达到5%甚至10%。）

Mr. Trump has swung between questioning Taiwan’s ability to withstand threats from China and boasting about U.S. power to deter Beijing. Asked last week about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Mr. Trump again emphasized American military dominance.

特朗普时而质疑台湾抵御中国威胁的能力，时而又夸耀美国遏制北京的实力。上周被问及中国可能入侵台湾时，特朗普再次强调了美国的军事优势。

特朗普总统周日在马来西亚吉隆坡。

“The United States is the strongest military power in the world by far, it’s not even close,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference. “Nobody’s going to mess with that.”

“到目前为止，美国是世界上最强大的军事强国，而且是遥遥领先。没有人敢挑战这一点，”特朗普在新闻发布会上说。

Still, Mr. Trump may calculate that adopting some language similar to President Clinton’s during a visit to China in 1998 — that the United States does not support independence for Taiwan — could make Beijing more amenable in trade negotiations, such as over its new controls on rare earth exports.

不过，特朗普或许盘算着，如果效仿克林顿总统1998年访华时的表态——即美国不支持台湾独立，或许能让北京在贸易谈判中更为配合，比如针对其新出台的稀土出口管制措施。

“For Xi, it’s critically important that Donald Trump at least communicates that he understands the Chinese position” on Taiwan, said Rorry Daniels, the managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute. “He needs to understand that Donald Trump is not going to surprise him on Taiwan.”

亚洲协会政策研究所董事总经理但若云(Rorry Daniels)指出：“对习近平而言，关键在于特朗普至少要表明理解中方（在台湾问题）的立场。他需要确信特朗普不会在台湾问题上制造意外。”

Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, however, downplayed concerns about what Mr. Trump might say about Taiwan when meeting Mr. Xi. “We are in close communication with the U.S. side, and their interactions with China won’t harm Taiwan,” Mr. Lin told Taiwanese legislators last week.

不过，台湾外交部长林佳龙淡化了外界对特朗普会晤习近平时涉台言论的担忧。林佳龙上周向台湾立法委员表示：“我们跟美方都保持密切的沟通，他们跟中国之间的互动，不会去伤害到台湾。”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the idea that Mr. Trump would make concessions on Taiwan in exchange for “favorable treatment” from China on trade issues. “No one is contemplating that,” Mr. Rubio told reporters on Saturday while in the Middle East.

国务卿马可·鲁比奥驳斥了特朗普会就台湾问题作出让步以换取中国在贸易问题上给予“优惠待遇”的说法。鲁比奥上周六在中东向记者表示：“没有人考虑过这种可能性。”