
A summit between President Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that could extend their countries’ trade truce is less than three weeks away, yet a cloud of uncertainty hangs over it.
特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平之间可能延长两国贸易休战状态的峰会还有不到三周就要举行,但其前景仍笼罩着不确定性的阴云。
Chinese officials are frustrated by a lack of details from the White House about Mr. Trump’s agenda and what deals the two sides could agree on, Chinese analysts say. American business leaders, for their part, don’t know if they are being invited to join the U.S. president.
中国分析人士表示,白宫迟迟不提供特朗普的议程细节以及双方可能达成的协议,中国官员感到挫败。美国商界领袖则表示,他们尚不清楚是否会被邀请随同总统出行。
To some extent, that may be just what dealing with Mr. Trump looks like. He prizes being unpredictable and has said he thinks keeping the other side off balance is the secret to winning. The Chinese government, on the other hand, likes to script every detail of meetings with Mr. Xi well in advance.
在某种程度上,这或许正是与特朗普打交道的常态。他推崇不可预测性,并曾表示他认为让对方摸不着头脑是获胜的秘诀。相比之下,中国政府则习惯提前很久就为与习近平的会晤拟定每一个细节。
“Usually, planning for this kind of visit would start months ahead. But this time, it started very late and it’s still very much in progress,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who last year was among a group of Chinese scholars attending unofficial talks in the United States.
“通常情况下,这种访问的规划会在几个月前开始。但这一次启动得很晚,而且目前仍处于推进过程中,”复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。去年,他曾作为中国学者代表团的一员赴美参加非官方会谈。
“We still don’t know what this visit will achieve,” he said.
他说:“我们仍然不知道这次访问将取得什么成果。”
That includes what commercial deals may be announced during the visit and what else Mr. Trump wants to do, Mr. Wu said. Some of these questions might be ironed out when Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China meet in Paris later this week.
吴心伯表示,这包括访问期间可能宣布哪些商业交易,以及特朗普希望达成的其他事项。其中一些问题可能会在本周晚些时候美国财政部长贝森特与中国副总理何立峰在巴黎会面时得到解决。
Concerns about the summit, which the White House says will be from March 31 to April 2, are also being aired in the United States. On Tuesday, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, Sean Stein, said that the White House had yet to invite any business leaders to travel with him.
白宫称这次峰会将于3月31日至4月2日举行,而美国国内也传出了对此次峰会的担忧。周二,美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森(Sean Stein)表示,白宫尚未邀请任何商界领袖随行。
美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森今年1月在华盛顿特区出席活动。
World leaders are often accompanied by chief executives on visits to China, in a reflection of the importance of the Chinese economy. Last month, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany traveled to Beijing with roughly 30 executives; in January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain took nearly 60 businesspeople. Mr. Trump himself brought executives with him in 2017 during his first presidential term.
世界领导人访问中国时通常会有首席执行官随行,这反映了中国经济的重要性。上个月,德国总理默茨率领约30名高管访问北京;今年1月,英国首相斯塔默带去了近60名商界人士。特朗普自己在2017年首个总统任期访华时也曾带企业高管随行。
“It’s hard to imagine the president is not going to want to have a robust delegation,” Mr. Stein said. “But so far, again, invitations haven’t gone out.”
“很难想象总统会不希望带一支强大的代表团,”谭森说。“但到目前为止,邀请函确实还没有发出。”
Mr. Stein said his understanding was that the Trump administration had not yet made a decision about whether chief executives should accompany the president.
谭森表示,据他了解,特朗普政府尚未决定是否安排企业高管随行。
A White House spokesman said that the administration intended to extend invitations when appropriate. It was normal for the United States not to have extended invitations yet, he said. On the goals for the summit, the spokesman said that neither side had yet revealed specifics.
白宫发言人表示,政府打算在适当时机发出邀请。他说,美国尚未发出邀请是正常的。至于峰会的目标,该发言人表示双方目前均未透露具体细节。
The U.S.-China relationship has largely been focused on maintaining stability, after a trade clash last year sent the relationship into a free fall. Mr. Trump’s steep global tariffs prompted the Chinese to cut off purchases of U.S. soybeans and clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American factories.
在去年的贸易冲突导致两国关系直线下跌后,目前两国主要聚焦于维持稳定。特朗普征收的高额全球关税促使中方切断了对美国大豆的采购,并限制美国工厂所需的稀土矿产出口。
Mr. Trump met Mr. Xi in South Korea in October, when they agreed on a yearlong trade truce. American officials have since said that the two leaders are expected to meet as many as four times this year.
特朗普去年10月在韩国与习近平会面,当时双方达成了一项为期一年的贸易战停火协议。美国官员此后表示,预计两位领导人今年将进行多达四次的会晤。
习近平主席的专车在10月釜山与特朗普会晤期间停在空军一号附近。
U.S. business leaders have been pressing for a more ambitious agenda that would try to open Chinese markets and remove impediments to businesses seeking to operate there. That includes obtaining approvals for U.S. crops grown with genetically modified seeds, U.S. pharmaceutical exports, and pending licenses for financial services companies.
美国商界领袖一直向政府施压,要求制定更宏大的议程,推动中国市场的开放,消除企业在华经营的障碍。这包括为美国转基因种子农产品、美国药品出口,以及金融服务公司待批牌照争取到批准。
China has yet to confirm the dates of the summit, but that is in line with its standard practice. Still, the country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, struck a positive note at a news briefing last week.
中国尚未确认峰会的日期,但这符合其惯常做法。尽管如此,中国最高外交官王毅在上周的新闻发布会上表达了积极的态度。
“This year is a big year for China-U.S. relations,” Mr. Wang said. “The agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table.”
“今年是中美关系的‘大年’,高层交往的议程已经摆在我们的桌面上,”王毅说。
The comments suggested plans had not been derailed by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, one of China’s strategic partners.
这样的言论表明,中国战略伙伴之一伊朗遭美以袭击事件并未打乱中美之间的计划。
Mr. Wang hinted, though, that the Trump administration should not do anything to antagonize China that could jeopardize the meeting, saying both sides should “manage the risks that do exist and remove unnecessary disruptions.” Mr. Trump has already delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi ahead of the summit.
不过,王毅暗示,特朗普政府不应做任何可能危害会晤的挑衅中国行为,称双方应“管控存在的风险,排除不必要的干扰”。 为避免在峰会前激怒习近平,特朗普已推迟宣布向台湾(北京宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿)出售武器的计划。
Mr. Wu of Fudan University said he doubted that China would lavish Mr. Trump with as much pomp and circumstance as they had on his first trip, when Mr. Xi took him on a personal tour of the Forbidden City. Just months after that, Mr. Trump launched his first trade war with China.
复旦大学的吴心伯表示,他怀疑中国是否还会像特朗普第一次访华时那样,给予他极其隆重的礼遇,当时习近平曾亲自陪同他参观故宫。就在那次访问几个月后,特朗普发起了对华的第一场贸易战。
“I’m not sure China is going to provide this kind of treatment for him again,” Mr. Wu said. “No matter how well you treat him, you cannot prevent him from changing his mind.”
“我不确定中国是否会再一次给他这种待遇,”吴心伯说。“不管你对他多好,都无法阻止他改变主意。”