President Trump wants Latin American countries to shift closer into Washington’s orbit, raising echoes of the Monroe Doctrine, when the United States claimed the Western Hemisphere as its domain.

美国总统特朗普想把拉丁美洲国家更紧密地拉入华盛顿的轨道，这让人想到“门罗主义”时代，美国那时曾把西半球宣称为自己的势力范围。

This week, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is hosting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and other leading officials from Latin America and the Caribbean in Beijing to underscore that China intends to keep a firm foothold in that region. Many Latin American governments also want to keep Beijing onside — chiefly as an economic partner, but for some also as a counterweight to U.S. power, experts said.

中国国家主席习近平本周在北京接待了巴西总统卢拉以及其他来自拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的领导人，此举彰显中国有意在该地区保持稳固地位。专家们指出，许多拉美国家政府也想得到中国的支持，主要是为了将中国作为一个经济伙伴，但对某些国家来说，也是为了平衡美国的影响力。

“What the people of Latin America and the Caribbean seek are independence and self-determination, not the so-called ‘new Monroe Doctrine’,” China’s assistant foreign minister, Miao Deyu, told reporters in Beijing on Sunday, according to the People’s Daily, nodding to President James Monroe’s declaration of 1823, warning European powers not to interfere in the Americas.

据《人民日报》报道，中国外交部部长助理苗得雨周日在北京对记者表示，“拉美和加勒比地区人民追求的是独立和自决，而不是所谓的‘新门罗主义’。”他指的是美国总统詹姆斯·门罗警告欧洲列强不要干涉美洲事务的1823年宣言。

The U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said that the Trump administration will be “putting our region, the Americas, first,” and Mr. Rubio’s first overseas trip as secretary was to Panama, Guatemala and other countries in the region. But Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs and threats to take over the Panama Canal have unsettled leaders in Latin America, especially in countries already wary of Washington.

美国国务卿鲁比奥已表示，特朗普政府将“把我们的区域，也就是美洲放在首位”。鲁比奥担任国务卿后第一次出访就去了巴拿马、危地马拉，以及该地区的其他国家。但是，特朗普的全面关税和接管巴拿马运河的威胁，已令拉美各国，尤其是那些本来就对华盛顿心存戒备的国家的领导人感到不安。

Even if Mr. Trump is not singled out by name in official statements from Mr. Xi’s meetings with Mr. Lula, and possibly other Latin American officials, the implication will be clear.

就算习近平在与卢拉，以及可能还包括其他拉丁美洲官员的会谈后发表的官方声明中没有点名特朗普，其意义也是显而易见的。

“Lula sees China as a partner in rebalancing global power, not just a trade partner but a geopolitical counterweight to U.S. hegemony,” said Matias Spektor, a professor of politics and international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian university. “Lula’s strategy is clear: diversify Brazil’s alliances, reduce dependency on Washington, and assert Brazil as a mover and shaker in an increasingly multipolar world.”

“卢拉将中国视为重新平衡全球力量的合作伙伴，中国不只是一个贸易伙伴，而是一个制衡美国霸权的地缘政治力量，”巴西热图利奥·巴尔加斯基金会大学政治与国际关系教授马蒂亚斯·斯佩克托说。“卢拉的战略很清楚：将巴西的盟友多元化，减少对华盛顿的依赖，以及确立巴西在日益多极化的世界中的重要地位。”

Still, behind closed doors, China’s talks with Mr. Lula and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders are unlikely to be just about mutual admiration. Mr. Lula is the most prominent of the leaders assembling in Beijing for a meeting on Tuesday between Chinese officials and ministers from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC, a group that does not include the United States or Canada.

尽管如此，中国与卢拉以及其他拉美和加勒比地区领导人的闭门会谈不太可能只是停留在相互赞赏的层面。中国官员们周二将在北京与出席中国—拉美和加勒比国家共同体论坛（简称CELAC）的部长们举行会晤，卢拉是出席这次论坛的领导人中最引人注目的一位。CELAC​​成员国中不包括美国和加拿大。

Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, a leftist former rebel, will also attend, Chinese media reported. But it was unclear who else was attending, and such meetings with China are usually attended by foreign ministers and other government officials.

据中国媒体报道，曾是反政府左翼人士、现任哥伦比亚总统的古斯塔沃·佩特罗也将出席这次论坛。但目前不清楚还有哪些人将出席论坛，出席中国这种论坛的通常是外交部长和外国政府的其他官员。

巴西南里奥格兰德州的农场工人在收割大豆。中国可能提出购买更多巴西大豆。

Over the past two decades, China became a prodigious purchaser of minerals and other resources from Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin American customers. Chinese products including cars and appliances have filled markets in the region, and Chinese investments have funded bridges, dams and ports. Brazil and other big commodities exporters are, in part, hoping to repeat what happened in Mr. Trump’s first term, when China purchased more soybeans, iron ore and other products from Latin America in the face of U.S. tariffs.

在过去20年里，中国已成为巴西、秘鲁、智利，以及其他拉美国家的矿产和其他资源购买量惊人的客户。包括汽车和家电在内的中国产品已充斥了拉美地区的市场，中国投资更是遍布该地区的桥梁、水坝和港口建设等项目。巴西和其他主要大宗商品出口国希望在一定程度上重复特朗普上次担任总统时发生的事情，当时由于美国对中国加征关税，中国增加了从拉丁美洲购买大豆、铁矿石和其他产品的规模。

Last year, trade in goods between China and Latin America reached nearly $519 billion, about double the value of a decade ago, according to Chinese customs statistics

根据中国海关的统计数据，中国与拉丁美洲的商品贸易额去年几乎达到了5190亿美元，约为10年前的两倍。

Mr. Lula has, for all his friendliness to Beijing, increased tariffs on iron, steel and fiber optic cable, products that mostly come from China. Countries across Latin America are “hugely concerned” that Chinese exporters shut out of the U.S. market will divert cheap goods there, swamping local manufacturers, said Ryan Berg, the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

尽管卢拉对北京态度友好，但他已经提高了对进口钢铁和光纤电缆的关税，这些产品主要来自中国。拉丁美洲国家“高度担忧”中国出口商被美国市场拒之门外后，将把廉价商品转移到它们的国家，冲击当地的制造业，华盛顿战略与国际研究中心美洲项目主任瑞安·伯格说道。

“These are countries that have a history of protectionism already and are interested in protecting local jobs and local industries,” Mr. Berg said in an interview. “Even though many countries like Brazil have good relationships with China, they have nevertheless moved almost in parallel with the United States to protect certain industries out of fear that they could become dumping grounds for, say, Chinese steel and aluminum.”

“这些国家本就具有保护主义的传统，而且对保护本土就业和产业感兴趣，”伯格在接受采访时说。“即便如巴西等对华友好国家，在保护某些产业上也采取了几乎与美国同步的行动，因为它们担心自己可能成为中国钢铁和铝等产品的倾销地。”

Mexico, the second-biggest Latin American economy after Brazil, has so far taken a more cautious approach to courting China, reflecting its much larger trade ties with the United States, said Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor of economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

墨西哥国立自治大学的经济学教授恩里克·杜塞尔·彼得斯指出，作为仅次于巴西的拉美第二大经济体，墨西哥在讨好中国上采取的做法迄今为止更为谨慎，这与墨美存在更为密切的贸易关系有关。

Indeed, Mexico’s diplomatic caution belies a trade relationship in which China is making huge inroads. Fueled largely by a surge in Chinese cars on Mexico’s roads, Mexico now accounts for about 2.4 percent of China’s total exports. That places Mexico ahead of Brazil, which has a larger population and absorbs only 1.7 percent of China’s exports, as China’s most important export market in Latin America.

的确，墨西哥外交上的谨慎与中国在推动双边贸易关系上正在取得的巨大进展形成了鲜明反差。墨西哥已成为中国出口总额约2.4%的目的地，这在很大程度上是受到了墨西哥道路上中国汽车数量激增的推动。墨西哥已成为中国在拉丁美洲最重要的出口市场，其吸收的中国出口额超过了人口更多的巴西，巴西仅吸收中国1.7%的出口。

中国的汽车正越来越多地出现在墨西哥和其他拉丁美洲国家的道路上，比亚迪是这些汽车的制造商之一。

“Mexican elites and the government are torn in this new triangular relationship” with the United States and China, said Professor Dussel Peters, the author of “Latin America, China, and Great Power Competition.” “This, however, will not be sufficient for Mexico, considering China’s massive presence in Mexico.”

“墨西哥的精英和政府在（与美国和中国的）这种新三角关系中左右为难，”《拉丁美洲、中国与大国竞争》一书的作者杜塞尔·彼得斯教授说。“但考虑到中国在墨西哥的巨大存在，这种态度对墨西哥来说远远不够。”

Mr. Xi has sounded optimistic that he can keep Mr. Lula and many other major Latin American leaders onside, partly through plain persistence, and partly through continued orders of iron ore, soybeans and other commodities. Mr. Lula has also voiced hopes that China can help Brazil make gains in new technologies, including space and green energy.

习近平对能赢得卢拉和其他许多拉美国家主要领导人的支持表示乐观，这既源自持之以恒的外交努力，也得益于中国继续从巴西购买铁矿石、大豆和其他大宗商品。卢拉也表示希望中国能帮助巴西在新技术领取得进展，包括航天科技和绿色能源。

When Mr. Xi traveled to Brazil for a G20 leaders’ summit in November, he added on a state visit there. This year he may do the same when he is expected to visit Rio de Janeiro for a summit in July of the BRICS group of developing countries that was founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Mr. Biden’s only visit to Brazil as president — for the G20 summit — came only after he had lost the presidential election.

习近平去年11月前往巴西出席20国集团领导人峰会时，还对该国进行了国事访问。预计他今年7月前往里约热内卢参加金砖国家峰会时将再次对巴西进行国事访问，金砖国家峰会是由巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国共同创立。拜登总统任内唯一一次到访巴西也是为了参加20国集团峰会，但那是在他输掉美国总统大选之后。

“The fact that we are much closer, but we have had high-level visits with less frequency than Xi is a barrier to regional prioritization and a bad sign from a strategic perspective.” Mr. Berg said. “I think a lot of that is going to change with Rubio,” he said, noting that Mr. Rubio is a fluent Spanish speaker familiar with the region.

“尽管我们与拉美国家距离更近，但我们的高层出访频率不如习近平，这对区域事务优先级来说是一个障碍，从战略角度来看，也是一个不好的信号，”伯格说。“我认为鲁比奥上任后，这种情况将发生很大的变化。”他指出，鲁比奥说一口流利的西班牙语，对该地区非常熟悉。

Nearer term, China may focus on more orders of soybeans and other goods from Brazil. “There is anxiety about China crowding out Brazilian manufacturers, but the broader reality is clear,” said Professor Spektor, the Brazilian academic. “China’s demand underpins Brazil’s economic stability.”

从近期来看，中国也许会把更多的注意力放在购买巴西的大豆和其他商品上。“有一种焦虑是中国会把巴西的制造商挤出市场，但更广泛的现实很明显，”巴西学者斯佩克托说。“中国的需求构成了巴西经济稳定的基础。”