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习近平与特朗普打交道的艺术:精准施压、争取回旋时间

DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG

2025年6月13日

王文涛(右)周二来到伦敦兰卡斯特宫,与美国进行贸易谈判。 Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

If China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, wrote a book titled “The Art of Dealing With Trump,” it would most likely call for exploiting the American president’s greatest weaknesses to exert maximal pressure, and then using the time gained to strengthen one’s position.

如果中国最高领导人习近平写一本名为《与特朗普打交道的艺术》的书的话,里面很可能会提到为了施加最大的压力,要利用这位美国总统的最大弱点,然后用争取来的时间巩固自身优势。

That appears to be the strategy Beijing has adopted since President Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods in April in a bid to get China to import more American goods and export fewer of its own. Rather than yield, China has leaned on a trump card, its control of critical minerals — which the United States depends on — while steering the focus to protracted talks instead of concrete results.

自特朗普总统在4月宣布提高对中国商品征收的关税,试图迫使它进口更多美国商品,减少对美出口以来,这似乎是中国政府一直采取的策略。中国没有屈服,反而动用了一个杀手锏——控制美国依赖的关键矿产,把美国的注意力转移到没完没了的谈判而非具体结果上。

Meetings like the ones that just concluded in London and that took place last month in Geneva, analysts say, keep the United States mired in negotiations over vague procedural steps — such as, in London, setting a “framework” for future talks. That allows China to avoid addressing the thornier disputes such as Washington’s accusations that China subsidizes industries unfairly, dumps goods overseas, and limits foreign companies’ ability to do business in China.

分析人士称,刚在伦敦结束的谈判以及上个月在日内瓦的谈判上,中国都让美国陷入了围绕模糊程序议程的谈判——例如伦敦谈判的结果是为未来的谈判制定了“框架协议”。这让中国得以避开解决一些更棘手的争端,例如美国政府指责中国不公平地补贴产业、向海外倾销商品,以及限制外国公司在华经营能力的问题。

“I think China is very comfortable with this cycle of economic skirmishing with the United States followed by episodes of diplomacy that merely return to the status quo ante,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously worked in the Central Intelligence Agency analyzing Chinese politics.

“我认为,中国非常乐于这种跟美国发生经济冲突后,搞几轮外交再回到原状的循环,”布鲁金斯学会研究员席恩(Jonathan Czin)说,他曾在中央情报局分析中国政治。

“This cat-and-mouse game keeps the United States from making any headway toward addressing any of the underlying U.S. concerns about China’s unfair nonmarket policies,” Mr. Czin added.

“这种猫捉老鼠的游戏使美国始终无法在解决根本问题——即中国非市场政策的不公平性——上取得任何实质性进展,”席恩补充道。

China has a long history of frustrating the United States in economic dialogues that often lead nowhere. Such engagement, critics say, allows Beijing to deflect pressure from the United States while continuing to build up its economy and manufacturing prowess as it sees fit.

中国在与美国的经济对话中长期以来常让美国感到挫败,这些对话往往无果而终。批评人士认为,这种接触形式让中国政府能转移来自美国的压力,同时继续按照自身规划发展本国经济和制造业。

12int china us diplo wmcp master1050美国总统特朗普和中国领导人习近平2017年在北京。

Rare earths are a case in point. China dominates the world’s supply of such minerals and the magnets made from them that are used in cars, airplanes, robots and semiconductors. In retaliation for the Trump administration’s tariffs, Beijing halted shipments. And even as the two countries negotiated a resumption of such exports, China was cracking down on the smuggling of rare earths out of the country to further tighten its grip.

稀土就是一个很好的例子。中国主导着全球稀土以及相关物项磁铁的供应,这些磁铁用于汽车、飞机、机器人和半导体等产品。为报复特朗普政府的关税,中国政府暂停了稀土出口。就在两国就恢复稀土出口进行谈判的同时,中国也在打击稀土走私出境,以进一步加强对稀土的控制。

“We can see the increasing measures China has been taking behind the scenes to get a firm central hold on strategic materials exports,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former intelligence adviser at the U.S. Department of Defense who now heads a China-focused consultancy firm, Asdal Advisory.

“我们可以看到中国正在幕后采取越来越多的措施,以牢牢控制战略物资的出口,”曾在美国国防部担任情报顾问的克尔斯滕·阿斯达尔说,她现在是专门提供中国事务咨询的阿斯达尔顾问公司的主管。

That way, “Beijing can tighten or loosen with great precision and responsiveness to political conditions, signs it’s being readied to be used as repeated leverage for a long time to come,” she added.

这样“北京可以根据政治条件非常精确和及时地收紧或放松出口控制,这表明在未来很长一段时间里,它将反复拿其作为筹码,”她补充道。

It is unclear what exactly the two countries agreed to after the talks in London, which were described as tense.

目前尚不清楚中美两国在伦敦举行会谈后究竟达成了哪些协议,据说会谈气氛相当紧张。

Mr. Trump said in a post on his social media page on Wednesday, in all uppercase, that “full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China.”

特朗普周三在自己的社交媒体网页上用全大写字母发帖称,“大量磁铁以及所有必要的稀土都将预先由中国提供。”

But China has not said explicitly that shipments of rare earths are flowing back to the United States as before. Asked about it during a news briefing on Thursday, He Yadong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said only that China had “approved a certain number of compliant applications” for rare earths shipments, and would continue to “strengthen” such approvals.

但中国并未明确表示稀土货物会像以前那样发往美国。商务部发言人何亚东在周四的新闻发布会上被问及此事时只是说,中国“已依法批准一定数量的合规申请,并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作”。

China is probably being ambiguous to maintain the threat of export restrictions as leverage, said Wang Yuesheng, director of the Institute of International Economics of Peking University.

中国可能正在采取模棱两可的政策,已保持出口限制的威胁,将其作为筹码,北京大学国际经济研究所所长王跃生说。

12int china us diplo 02 wkgq master1050中国最著名的稀土磁铁工厂由金力永磁运营。

It is “not a complete loosening, but also not a complete ban like before,” he said. “This intermediate state allows China to be relatively more proactive” if the United States “suppresses China.”

这“不是完全放宽,也不是像以前那样完全禁止,”他说。“这是一个中间态,让中国能相对来说更主动地采取行动”,如果美国“压制中国”的话。

Mr. Xi’s strategy is not without risk, even with his advantage over rare earths. Mr. Trump, as unpredictable as he is, could decide to resort to tariffs again or impose other punitive measures against Beijing if he grows frustrated with negotiations or determines Chinese exports of rare earths are still being delayed.

尽管中国在稀土方面拥有优势,但习近平的策略并非没有风险。特朗普是个难以预测的人,如果他对谈判越来越不满,或认定中国仍在拖延稀土出口的话,他可能会决定再次动用关税,或对中国采取其他惩罚性措施。

China’s economy is not as strong as it was in the first trade war. Exports, China’s chief economic engine, have slowed and tariffs on Chinese goods of 55 percent, the rate Mr. Trump has cited, would still hurt. The country’s property market is still digging out of a crisis. And one of the country’s most promising industries, electric vehicles, has been hit by overcapacity and a punishing price war.

中国的经济不如第一次贸易战时那么强劲。作为主要经济引擎的出口已经放缓,而即便是特朗普提到的对中国产品征收55%的关税仍将造成打击。中国的房地产市场仍在努力摆脱危机。而中国最有前景的产业之一——电动汽车也已受到产能过剩和惨烈价格战的打击。

In a potential sign that the government is concerned about the toll China’s sluggish economy is having on ordinary citizens, it announced guidelines on Monday aimed at “addressing the people’s urgent, difficult and pressing needs” in accessing education, elder and child care services and social insurance, though it offered few specifics.

中国政府周一公布了指导意见,要求在教育、养老、托育以及社会保障等方面“解决群众急难愁盼”的问题,虽然没有多少具体细节,但这是政府担心中国经济低迷正在给普通民众造成影响的可能迹象。

Still, Mr. Xi is betting he can outlast Mr. Trump in an extended trade war, because Mr. Trump is vulnerable to public discontent in the United States, Chinese analysts say.

尽管如此,习近平押注的是自己在一场旷日持久的贸易战中能比特朗普撑更长时间,因为特朗普易受美国民众的不满情绪影响,中国的分析人士说。

“Domestic politics is the soft underbelly” of the United States, said Shen Dingli, a scholar of international relations in Shanghai.

“国内政治是美国的‘软肋’,”上海的国际关系学者沈丁立说。

Joy Dong自香港对本文有研究贡献。

David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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