As wars rage and American alliances look less certain, China’s leader Xi Jinping is making a renewed case to Taiwan: Its future lies not with Washington, but with Beijing.

在战火肆虐、美国的盟友关系显得越来越不确定之际，中国领导人习近平正在向台湾重新传递一个信息：台湾的未来取决于北京而不是华盛顿。

Mr. Xi delivered that message implicitly in a rare meeting in Beijing on Friday with Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the Nationalist Party, Taiwan’s main opposition party.

习近平周五在北京与台湾主要反对党国民党主席郑丽文举行了一次罕见的会晤，含蓄地传达了这一信息。

The meeting underscored how Beijing is trying to shape Taiwan’s politics by courting parties more open to its stance and spurning those that are not. Beijing shuns Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is its territory. But China maintains ties with the Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing.

此次会晤凸显出，北京正试图通过拉拢对其立场持相对开放态度的政党、冷落那些抗拒的政党来塑造台湾的政治格局。北京拒绝与台湾执政的民进党打交道，因为后者不接受北京关于台湾是中国领土的主张。但中国与国民党保持着联系，国民党主张与北京进行更密切的接触。

“The world today is far from tranquil, and peace is all the more precious,” Mr. Xi told Ms. Cheng at the opening of their talks, according to a Taiwanese television broadcast of the meeting. “Compatriots on both sides of the strait are Chinese, one family, and the desire for peace, development, exchanges and cooperation is a shared aspiration.”

根据台湾电视节目中的会晤画面，习近平在会谈开始时对郑丽文说：“今天的世界并不太平，和平弥足珍贵。两岸同胞都是中国人、一家人。要和平、要发展、要交流、要合作是共同心声。”

In her response, Ms. Cheng cited Mr. Xi’s slogan for his program of national revival, saying that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the shared rejuvenation of people on both sides of the strait.”

郑丽文在回应中引用了习近平的民族复兴口号，表示“中华民族伟大复兴是两岸人民的共同复兴”。

Ms. Cheng is the first sitting Nationalist leader in a decade to hold talks with Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi’s outreach appears aimed at increasing pressure on Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, who wants Taiwan to forge a future separate from China. The meeting elevates a rival of Lai’s and potentially undercuts his argument that Taiwan must rely on Washington to deter threats from Beijing.

郑丽文是十年来首位与习近平举行会谈的现任国民党领导人。习近平此次伸出橄榄枝似乎旨在加大对台湾总统、民进党的赖清德的压力。赖清德希望台湾走出一条与中国分离的路。此次会晤提升了赖清德政敌的地位，并可能削弱他关于台湾必须依靠华盛顿来威慑北京威胁的论点。

Mr. Lai has proposed increasing Taiwan’s military spending through a $40 billion package to be spent across eight years, on top of the regular budget outlays.

赖清德提议，在常规预算支出之外，通过一项为期八年的400亿美元一揽子计划来增加台湾的军事开支。

“Xi wants to cast doubt in Taiwan over the Lai Ching-te administration’s focus on self-defense by showing the benefits of a more conciliatory stance toward China,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director on China policy in the Eurasia Group, a consultancy firm.

“习近平希望表明，采取倾向于和解的对华立场是有好处的，从而让台湾民众对赖清德政府专注于自我防卫的做法产生怀疑，”咨询公司欧亚集团中国政策主任萧嫣然(Amanda Hsiao)说。

The talks with Ms. Cheng could also serve a tactical purpose for Mr. Xi as he prepares for a summit with President Trump in China next month. “This narrative of China as peacemaker could also help Xi make a more convincing argument to Trump for why the U.S. president should, for example, hold off on arms sales to Taiwan,” Ms. Hsiao said.

与郑丽文的会谈对习近平来说也可能具有战术意义，因为他正准备下个月在中国与特朗普总统举行峰会。“中国作为和平缔造者的这一叙事，也能帮助习近平向特朗普提出更有说服力的理由，例如为什么美国总统应该暂缓对台军售，”萧嫣然说。

But Mr. Xi’s message may struggle to gain traction with Taiwanese voters. Even as Mr. Trump’s tariffs have dented Taiwanese public confidence in the United States, confidence in China remains even lower. Thirty-four percent of Taiwanese said the United States was a “credible country,” according to a survey in January by Academia Sinica, a research academy in Taiwan, compared with 17 percent who said the same about China.

但习近平传递的信息可能难以在台湾选民中获得共鸣。尽管特朗普的关税削弱了台湾民众对美国的信心，但台湾人对中国的信心仍然更低。根据台湾中央研究院1月份的一项调查，34%的台湾人认为美国是“可信赖的国家”，认为中国可信赖的比例仅为17%。

China may offer trade and other economic incentives to entice Taiwan to grow closer to Beijing. But that inducement is undercut by Beijing’s sustained military pressure on Taiwan, including in recent years exercises that simulate blockades and amphibious assaults.

中国可能会提供贸易和其他经济诱因来吸引台湾与北京走得更近。但这一诱惑却被北京对台湾持续的军事压力所削弱，包括近年来模拟封锁和两栖攻击的军演。

“If Cheng Li-wun wants Taiwanese people to clearly feel she has accomplished something in her trip, the fastest way would be reducing Chinese military activity against Taiwan,” said Wei-feng Tzeng, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies cross-strait relations. “But that is unlikely because she doesn’t have the chips to negotiate this with Xi Jinping. She’s an opposition leader after all.”

“如果郑丽文希望台湾民众清楚地感觉到她此行有所收获，最快的方式就是减少中国针对台湾的军事活动，”台北国立政治大学研究两岸关系的曾伟峰教授说，“但这不太可能，因为她没有资本去与习近平谈这个问题。她毕竟只是反对党领导人。”

Still, Mr. Xi and Ms. Cheng appear to be betting that Taiwan’s voters will be drawn to a message of rapprochement with Beijing, especially in a more turbulent world.

尽管如此，习近平和郑丽文指望的似乎是，在一个更加动荡的世界中，台湾选民会被与北京的和解信息所吸引。

“The flames of war are spreading and people are fearful,” Ms. Cheng said at a Nationalist Party meeting in Taipei before departing for China on Tuesday. “In Taiwan, we must exhaust every effort to avoid war breaking out.”

“不可讳言，现在整体的国际环境动荡不安、战火蔓延、人心惶惶，”郑丽文周二启程前往中国前，在台北的一次国民党会议上表示，“在台湾，我们要竭尽一切的努力避免战争的发生。”

In her youth, Ms. Cheng was a fiery proponent of independence for Taiwan. But now she says she is proudly Chinese, as well as Taiwanese, and argues that a shared culture can heal divisions.

年轻时代的郑丽文曾强烈支持台湾独立。但现在她说，自己既是一个自豪的台湾人，也是一个中国人，并认为共同的文化可以弥合分歧。

She has cast the visit as a “journey of peace,” invoking a 2005 trip by a previous Nationalist leader that reopened talks with the Chinese Communist Party after decades of hostility.

她将此次访问定位为“和平之旅”，呼应了2005年国民党前领导人的一次大陆访问，那次访问在数十年的敌对之后重新开启了与中国共产党之间的对话。