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习近平利用峰会、阅兵和历史展示中国影响力

DAVID PIERSON, MUJIB MASHAL, NATALIYA VASILYEVA

2025年9月1日

周日,印度总理莫迪和中国国家主席习近平在天津出席上海合作组织峰会时的合影,照片由莫迪办公室发布。 Indian Prime Minister's Office, via Associated Press

Xi Jinping could hardly have scripted a more favorable moment. This weekend, the leaders of India and Russia joined him at a security summit in China — one leader pushed away by President Trump’s tariffs, the other brought out of isolation by his embrace.

习近平几乎不可能挑到比这更有利的时刻了。上周末,印度和俄罗斯的领导人与他一同出席了在中国举行的安全峰会——他们一位因特朗普的关税而与美国渐行渐远,另一位则因特朗普的示好而走出孤立

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have raised doubts about leaning too heavily on Washington. For President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, his red-carpet treatment in Alaska by Mr. Trump blunted Western efforts to punish him for the invasion of Ukraine.

对于印度总理莫迪来说,美国对印度商品征收的关税引发了过度依赖华盛顿的疑虑。对于俄罗斯总统普京来说,特朗普在阿拉斯加给予他的红毯礼遇削弱了西方因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而试图惩罚他的努力。

At the center is Mr. Xi, turning America’s alienation of India into an opportunity, and finding validation for his own long alignment with Mr. Putin.

处于中心位置的是习近平,他把美国对印度的疏远转化为契机,同时也证明了自己与普京的长期结盟是正确的。

The summit of more than 20 leaders, mostly from Central Asia, followed by a military parade in Beijing showcasing China’s newest missiles and warplanes, is not just pageantry. It shows how Mr. Xi is trying to turn history, diplomacy and military might into tools for reshaping a global order that has been dominated by the United States.

共有20多位领导人参加了这场峰会,其中大多来自中亚,北京随后将举行阅兵式,展示中国的最新导弹和战机,这将不仅仅是一场盛大仪式。它展示了习近平如何试图把历史、外交和军事力量转化为重塑由美国主导的全球秩序的工具。

“The success of Xi’s foreign policy strategy is reflected in the parade of leaders traveling to China,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously worked at the C.I.A. analyzing Chinese politics. “Indeed, Xi today probably feels more besieged by visiting heads of state than encircled by the United States and its allies and partners.”

“习近平外交战略的成功体现在各国领导人接连访华,”布鲁金斯学会研究员、曾在中情局负责中国政治分析的席恩(Jonathan Czin)说。“事实上,如今的习近平可能感受到的更多是被来访的国家元首‘簇拥’,而不是被美国及其盟友‘包围’。”

Mr. Xi, Mr. Putin and Mr. Modi are attending the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia, in the eastern city of Tianjin on Sunday and Monday.

习近平、普京和莫迪于周日和周一在天津出席上海合作组织峰会,这是一个由中俄主导的欧亚安全组织。

00int china putin modi blqg master10508月,中国人民解放军军乐团女兵在北京排练,为即将举行的纪念“二战”结束80周年阅兵式做准备。

On Wednesday, Mr. Xi will preside over a military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II — portraying the conflict as a triumph led by the Communist Party. (Many historians, however, believe it was the Chinese Nationalists who did most of the fighting.)

周三,习近平将在北京主持一场纪念“二战”结束80周年的阅兵式——这场战争被描绘成共产党领导的胜利。(然而许多历史学家认为,真正承担主要作战任务的是中国国民党。)

In speeches, Mr. Xi has sought to recast World War II as a struggle in which China and the Soviet Union were the decisive theaters of battle. That argument, which Mr. Putin has echoed, tries to shift claims of victory away from the West and toward China and Russia, not least because of the tens of millions of people in those countries who died. Chinese officials have also asserted that the Western allies have ignored agreements negotiated during and after the war that would have buttressed China’s territorial claim to Taiwan.

在演讲中,习近平试图将“二战”重塑为一场以中国和苏联为决定性主战场的斗争。普京对此表示赞同,试图将胜利的功劳从西方转移到中国和俄罗斯,特别是因为这两个国家有数千万民众在战争中丧生。中国官员还声称,西方盟国无视了战时及战后达成的那些协议,而它们本可以支持中国对台湾的领土主张。

That backdrop explains the importance of military parades to Beijing and Moscow.

这一背景解释了阅兵对北京和莫斯科的重要性。

“Beyond martial splendor and visual reminders of these nations’ contributions to the war effort, the parades are part of an ongoing ‘memory war,’” scholars at the Brookings Institution wrote recently. “China and Russia are offering a preferred alternative history to the Western narrative of the Allied victory.”

“除了展示军威和对两国战争贡献的视觉提醒外,阅兵还是一场持续不断的‘记忆之战’的一部分,”布鲁金斯学会的学者们最近写道。“中俄两国正在针对盟军胜利的西方叙事提供一套更符合自身立场的替代性历史版本。”

Until recently, Beijing’s closeness to Moscow had drawn pressure from Washington. But that tension appears to have eased in part because of a warming of ties between the United States and Russia. President Trump himself lavished praise on Mr. Putin in Alaska this month and later echoed the Kremlin’s position that Ukraine needed to cede land to bring an end to the war.

北京与莫斯科的亲密关系此前一直引发来自华盛顿的施压。但这种紧张局势似乎有所缓和,部分原因是美俄关系升温。特朗普本人8月在阿拉斯加对普京大加赞赏,随后还附和克里姆林宫的立场,认为乌克兰需要割让领土才能结束战争。

Mr. Xi now appears vindicated for standing by Mr. Putin, and analysts say the leaders will use the summit in Tianjin to promote a vision of a world less dominated by the United States.

习近平坚持与普京站在一起的立场如今似乎被证明是正确的,分析人士称,两位领导人将利用天津峰会推动一个不再由美国主导的世界愿景。

00int china putin modi jmvq master1050莫斯科一家纪念品商店里摆放着普京和习近平的纸板像。

Mr. Xi can also thank the Trump administration for accelerating an easing of tensions between China and India, which had seen their relations crater in 2020 after a series of bloody border skirmishes. New Delhi has been frustrated by the doubling of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to a whopping 50 percent, leading to calls for a rebalancing toward China.

习近平还要感谢特朗普政府加速了中印关缓和。中印关系在2020年一系列血腥的边境冲突后陷入低谷。美国将对印度商品的关税翻了一倍,高达50%,这让新德里感到不满,并引发了重新调整与中国的关系寻求平衡的呼声。

Mr. Modi, who had previously drawn closer to the United States during the Biden administration to counter Beijing, is visiting China for the first time in seven years by attending the summit. (He will not be present at the military parade, though, unlike Mr. Putin and the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un.)

莫迪在拜登政府时期曾向美国靠拢以抗衡北京,但如今时隔七年他再次访华,参加此次峰会。(不过他不会出席阅兵式,普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩则会出席。)

In a meeting with Mr. Modi on Sunday, Mr. Xi said that China and India should be “partners rather than rivals,” and that they should offer “opportunities for each other’s development rather than threats,” in what could be read as a subtle jab at Mr. Trump. Mr. Xi also reiterated Beijing’s stance that disputes over the shared border should not define bilateral relations.

在周日与莫迪的会晤中,习近平表示,中印应成为“合作伙伴而不是对手”,应“互为发展机遇而不是威胁”,这可以被解读为对特朗普的含蓄讽刺。习近平还重申,北京的立场是,两国不应让边界争端定义双边关系。

“Being good neighbors and friends, partners who achieve mutual success, and realizing the ‘dance of the dragon and the elephant’ should be the right choice for both China and India,” Mr. Xi said, according to Chinese state media, evoking the two nations’ symbolic creatures.

“做睦邻友好的朋友、相互成就的伙伴,实现‘龙象共舞’,应当是中印双方的正确选择,”据中国官方媒体报道,习近平这样说。他借用了象征两国的动物意象。

Mr. Modi echoed Mr. Xi, saying that the two countries should not be “rivals” and that “peace and tranquillity” in the border areas was important for bilateral relations, according to a readout from India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

据印度外交部发布的通稿,莫迪呼应了习近平的讲话,称两国不应成为“对手”,并强调边境地区的“和平与安宁”对双边关系至关重要。

The convergence of Mr. Putin and Mr. Modi in China, as well as leaders from dozens of other emerging economies, including Turkey, Egypt, Malaysia and Pakistan, contrasts with the growing discord within the U.S. alliance with European and Asian countries.

普京和莫迪访华,以及土耳其、埃及、马来西亚和巴基斯坦等数十个新兴经济体的领导人到来,与美国痛欧洲和亚洲盟友见日益加剧的不和形成了鲜明对比。

Some of those cracks were on display this month when European leaders, shut out of peace talks, felt the need to rush to Washington to persuade Mr. Trump not to cave to Russian demands over peace terms in Ukraine. Mr. Trump also ruffled feathers with an ally again this past week when he heaped praise on Mr. Kim during a meeting in the Oval Office with President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea.

本月,当欧洲领导人被排除在俄乌和谈之外,不得不匆忙飞往华盛顿,劝说特朗普不要在乌克兰和谈条件上向俄罗斯让步时,这种裂痕显露了出来。特朗普还在上周再次令一位盟友感到不安,他在白宫椭圆办公室与韩国总统李在明会晤时对金正恩大加赞扬

Many U.S. allies in Europe and Asia view China as a formidable threat to fair trade, democracy and regional stability. The last of those concerns will be underscored by the military parade that is expected to feature new anti-ship missiles which could be deployed in a war over Taiwan.

欧洲和亚洲的许多美国盟友认为,中国对公平贸易、民主和地区稳定构成严重威胁。最后一点将在阅兵中得到凸显——预计北京将在阅兵中展示可能在台海战争中部署的新型反舰导弹。

China has tried to use Washington’s disorder to persuade countries like India to reassess their relationship with the United States. At the same time, Beijing fears Washington will pressure other countries to restrict trade with China at a time when the Chinese economy has been badly weakened by a property slump and price wars.

中国试图利用华盛顿的混乱说服印度等国家重新评估与美国的关系。与此同时,北京还担心,在中国经济因房地产低迷和价格战而严重受损之际,华盛顿会向其他国家施压,限制与中国的贸易。

00int china putin modi vthf master1050北京为纪念“二战”结束和日本投降80周年而立起的雕塑。

“Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu Feihong, the Chinese ambassador to India, wrote on X about U.S. tariffs.

“给恶霸一寸,他就会要一尺。”中国驻印度大使徐飞洪在X上就美国关税问题发文称

At a recent seminar in New Delhi, Mr. Xu said India and China had a responsibility to take a bigger role in global leadership to push back against U.S. “hegemony and power politics.” He called the neighbors the “double engines” of economic growth in Asia, using a phrase that Mr. Modi often uses in domestic politics.

在最近于新德里举行的一次研讨会上,徐飞洪表示,中印有责任在全球领导力中发挥更大作用,以反击美国的“霸权与强权政治”。他称两国是亚洲经济增长的“双引擎”,用了一个莫迪在国内政治中常用的说法。

Russia, a country firmly in Beijing’s camp, needs less persuasion. Moscow has been using groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to deepen ties with China, India and other countries that have become increasingly important to its sanctions-hit economy since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in 2022.

至于俄罗斯,这个坚定站在北京阵营的国家几乎不需要说服。自2022年俄军入侵乌克兰以来,莫斯科一直利用上海合作组织等组织加深与中国、印度及其他国家的联系,这些国家对遭受制裁的俄罗斯经济变得愈发重要。

Russian oil is certain to come up in the conversations between Mr. Putin, Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi. The Trump administration’s tariffs on India for buying Russian crude has allowed China to become an even larger buyer than it was before without facing similar consequences as India, analysts’ reports show.

在普京、习近平和莫迪的会谈中,俄罗斯石油问题肯定会被提及。分析报告显示,特朗普政府对印度购买俄罗斯原油征收关税,这使得中国成为比以往更大的俄罗斯石油买家,却不面临印度那样类似的后果。

31int china putin modi gcpt master1050今年2月,莫迪和特朗普在白宫会面。

More than anything, the summit and parade will allow Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi to reaffirm their close relationship, a partnership that the West has tried and largely failed to break.

更重要的是,这次峰会和阅兵将让普京和习近平再次重申他们的亲密关系——一种西方试图打破却基本未能成功的伙伴关系。

China’s relations with Russia will most likely continue to be “excellent,” said Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army of China now at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Attempts by the West to drive a wedge, he added, were nothing but “wishful thinking.”

“中国与俄罗斯的关系很可能会继续保持‘良好’。”中国人民解放军退役上校、现就职于清华大学的周波说。他补充道,西方试图离间这种关系不过是“一厢情愿”。

Berry Wang自香港、Hari Kumar自德里对本文有报道贡献。

David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。

Mujib Mashal是《纽约时报》南亚分社社长,负责领导时报对印度及其周边不同地区的报道,包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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