For the two men at the forefront of a trade war that has begun to rupture ties between the world’s biggest economies, the question has become who will blink first.

在这场已开始破坏全球两大经济体关系的贸易战中，对于处在对峙前沿的两位来说，此刻的问题已经变成了：究竟谁会先退缩？

On one side is President Trump, who unleashed a disruptive plan to transform the modern global trading system with tariffs — only to back down hours after it took effect, pausing the import duties for every country but China.

一边是特朗普总统，他抛出一项毁灭性计划，试图用关税来改变现代全球贸易体系，却在该计划生效数小时后就做出了让步，暂停对除中国之外所有国家加征进口关税。

On the other side is Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, who has a well-earned reputation for refusing to yield. He stuck to China’s tight Covid restrictions long past the point where they were working. He pressed ahead with his goal of making China the world’s leader in electric vehicles and solar panels, despite alarm from trading partners about the flood of cheap exports.

另一边是以强硬著称的中国最高领导人习近平。他曾坚持推行早已不具实际意义的严格防疫措施，不顾贸易伙伴对廉价中国出口商品涌入的担忧，执意推动中国成为全球电动汽车和太阳能面板领域的领军者。

Now, as Mr. Xi faces what could be the biggest test of his leadership since the pandemic, he has been true to form. On Friday, his government escalated its response to Mr. Trump, raising tariffs on U.S. imports to 125 percent, despite concerns that a prolonged trade war could deepen China’s economic malaise. Before that announcement, Mr. Xi struck a confident note in his first public comments about the trade showdown.

现在，面对疫情以来对其领导能力的最大考验，习近平依然我行我素。周五，尽管人们担心长期的贸易战可能会加剧中国经济的困境，他的政府还是升级了对特朗普的回应，将美国进口商品的关税提高到125%。在宣布这一消息之前，他在就这场贸易对峙首次发表的公开言论中，显得自信满满。

“There will be no winners in a tariff war, and going against the world will only isolate oneself,” Mr. Xi said while hosting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain in Beijing, without explicitly mentioning Mr. Trump or the United States.

“打关税战没有赢家，同世界作对，将孤立自己，”习近平在北京会见西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯时表示，他没有直接点名特朗普或者美国。

“For more than 70 years, China has always relied on self-reliance and hard work for development,” Mr. Xi continued. “It has never relied on anyone’s gifts and is unafraid of any unreasonable suppression.”

“70多年来，中国发展始终靠的是自力更生、艰苦奋斗，”他继续说道。“从不靠谁的恩赐，更不畏惧任何无理打压。”

在中国的制造业中心广州，停满新车的停车场。

Mr. Xi can afford to be more stubborn than his American counterpart.

论固执，习近平可以比他的美国对手更有资本。

As the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, he has surrounded himself with loyalists, purged his opponents and imposed tight social controls to stifle dissent. He has styled himself as a strongman with a nationalistic vision of China’s rejuvenation. His officials have mobilized state funds to stabilize Chinese financial markets as stocks around the world plunged over the tariffs.

作为自毛泽东以来权力最大的中国领导人，他任用亲信、清除异己，并通过严格的社会管控压制不同声音。他以中华民族的复兴为号召，将自己塑造成一个强人。在全球股市因关税问题暴跌之际，他的官员们调动国家资金来稳定中国的金融市场。

“Xi has spent his whole career hardening the country for precisely this moment,” said Joseph Torigian, an assistant professor at American University in Washington who studies elite politics in China. “He likely believes that the Chinese political system is superior to the American one because it has greater cohesion and discipline. He probably thinks the Chinese people will sacrifice for a mission of national rejuvenation.”

“习近平整个政治生涯都在做的一件事，正是让中国能顶住现在这种局面，”华盛顿美利坚大学研究中国精英政治的助理教授约瑟夫·托里吉安说。“他很可能认为，中国的政治体制优于美国，因为它具有更强的凝聚力和纪律性。他可能认为，中国人民会为民族复兴大业做出牺牲。”

Mr. Xi can play the long game. He has no elections to consider and is empowered to rule over China indefinitely, having abolished presidential term limits in 2018. Mr. Trump has to leave office in 2029 (though he has suggested he might defy the Constitution and make a third run at the White House).

习近平可以从长计议。他无需顾虑选举压力，而且在2018年废除了国家主席的任期限制，他可以一直坐在那个位置上。特朗普则必须在2029年卸任（尽管他曾暗示自己可能会罔顾宪法，第三次入主白宫）。

Mr. Xi can also point to the trade war as vindication of his frequent warnings about Western hostility toward China — his stated reason for taking an all-encompassing approach to national security and investing in a world-class military at the expense of other needs. Mr. Trump’s decision to give every country but China a reprieve from his tariffs reinforces that narrative.

习近平还可以指出，贸易战证明了他的警告是正确的，他常说西方对中国充满敌意——这也正是他推行全方位国家安全战略、不惜牺牲其他需求来打造世界一流军队的原因。特朗普决定让除中国以外的所有国家暂缓征收关税，更是强化了他的这一说法。

“This will actually save Xi Jinping from having to take responsibility for the lack of economic growth in China. It is a ‘get out of jail free’ card for him,” said Jessica Teets, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont and an expert on Chinese politics. “Chinese citizens and business leaders will view this as outside of his control.”

“这实际上将使习近平不必为中国经济增长乏力承担责任。这对他来说是一张‘免罪金牌’，”佛蒙特州明德学院政治学家、中国政治专家赵娜(Jessica Teets)说。“中国的民众和商界领袖会将此归咎于不可控的外部因素。”

China’s propaganda organs have been rallying the country for a protracted fight.

中国的宣传机构一直在动员全国人民应对一场持久战。

People’s Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece, published an editorial likening Washington to a band of pirates. Chinese diplomats are closing ranks, People’s Daily reported, with one official calling for a “diplomatic iron army” that is “loyal to the Party, courageous in taking responsibility, daring to fight and strictly disciplined.”

中共机关报《人民日报》在一篇社论中将华盛顿比作一伙海盗。据《人民日报》报道，中国的外交人员正在加强队伍建设，一位官员呼吁打造一支“对党忠诚、勇于担当、敢斗善斗、纪律严明”的“外交铁军”。

广州的一家奥特莱斯购物者寥寥无几。摄于本周。

Mao Ning, a senior Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, posted on X a video of a speech that Mao Zedong made during the Korean War — known in China as the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea — in which he declared, “No matter how long this war is going to last, we’ll never yield.”

中国外交部高级发言人毛宁在X上发布了一段毛泽东在朝鲜战争（中国称之为抗美援朝）期间发表的讲话，毛泽东说：“他们要打多久，就打多久，一直打到完全胜利。”

“We are Chinese. We are not afraid of provocations. We don’t back down,” Ms. Mao wrote in her post.

毛宁附上了一句话：“我们是中国人。我们不怕挑衅。我们不会退缩。”

Dali Yang, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies Chinese politics, said that such messaging was sure to continue.

芝加哥大学研究中国政治的教授杨大利说，这类舆论导向必将持续下去。

“There will undoubtedly be a sustained effort to put the blame on the United States and especially Trump and his rapid moves and reversals,” Professor Yang said, adding that the party “has strong capabilities to effectively reach ordinary people.”

“无疑会继续归咎于美国，尤其是特朗普及其朝令夕改的作风，”杨大利分析道。他还说，中共“有很强的能力去有效地影响普通民众”。

For all his power, Mr. Xi is not immune to popular discontent, analysts say. China is sure to feel pain from Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which have reached at least 145 percent — a staggering figure that imperils the country’s $400 billion in annual exports to the United States, its biggest market.

分析人士指出，尽管习近平权力滔天，但他也无法避免民众的不满。中国肯定会因特朗普的关税而感到痛苦，税率至少已达到145%——这一惊人的数字危及中国每年对美国4000亿美元的出口，后者是它最大的市场。

Already, factories near the manufacturing hub of Guangzhou that supply garments to American consumers have closed until there is more clarity on the tariffs. If such closures spread, they could exacerbate China’s unemployment problem, making it even harder for policymakers to revitalize an economy battered by a property crisis and sagging confidence.

目前，位于制造业中心广州附近为美国消费者供应服装的工厂已经纷纷停工，都在等待关税的前景明朗起来。此类停产现象若持续蔓延，恐怕将加剧中国的失业问题，使决策者更难重振受房地产危机和信心下滑打击的经济。

广州的一家制衣厂，摄于周三。这里的许多工厂已经关闭，至少是暂时关闭。

For Mr. Xi, the test is likely to be whether the party can keep ordinary Chinese people on its side and help them endure any economic pain from the trade war.

对于习近平来说，考验可能在于中共能否赢得普通老百姓的支持，并帮助他们承受贸易战带来的任何经济痛苦。

When Mr. Xi last faced a challenge on this scale — the coronavirus pandemic — his response was initially a point of pride for many Chinese. For more than two years, it kept China’s Covid numbers enviably low with mass testing and snap lockdowns.

习近平上一次面对如此规模的挑战，也就是新冠疫情时，他的反应最初令许多中国人感到骄傲。在两年多的时间里，通过大规模检测和快速实施的封控措施，中国将新冠病毒感染人数保持在令人羡慕的低水平。

But he held firm to that strict policy well into 2022, as the rest of the world was learning to live with the virus. Anger over mass lockdowns led to some of the biggest protests across China in decades. Disillusionment with the country’s direction led to an exodus of wealthy Chinese and members of the professional class.

到了2022年，当世界上其他国家都在学习如何与病毒共存时，他仍坚持推行严格的防疫政策。大规模封控引发的民怨，最终酿成了中国数十年来最大规模的抗议活动。对国家发展方向的失望导致中国的富人和专业人士纷纷移民。

“The Chinese population may not be in a sacrificial mood after Covid,” Mr. Torigian said. “The economy has struggled to rebound. I doubt very much that Xi Jinping is blind to that problem.”

托里吉安说，“后疫情时代的中国民众，恐怕已无多少牺牲奉献的意愿。经济复苏步履维艰。我不太相信这个问题习近平会看不到。”

“Even if you think you have a strong repressive capacity to hurt doubters and a jingoistic story to rally supporters, economic dislocations are still dangerous because you never know how bad they will get and whether they will turn into something worse,” Mr. Torigian said.

“即使你认为自己拥有强大的镇压能力来打击持怀疑态度的人，并且有一套极端民族主义的说辞来鼓动支持者，但经济动荡始终是危险的，因为你永远无法预知危机会恶化到何种程度，也不知道这是否会演变成更糟糕的局面，”托里吉安说。

That economic reality suggests that Mr. Xi will probably accept an off-ramp from the tariff showdown if Mr. Trump offers one, analysts said. China has said it does not want a trade war, but its officials have insisted that any deal will depend on the United States treating China as an equal.

分析人士表示，这一经济现实表明，如果特朗普提出关税摊牌的解决方案，习近平很可能会接受。中国表示并不希望打贸易战，但中国官员坚称，任何协议都将取决于美国是否平等对待中国。

周四，特朗普总统与内阁成员在白宫。

On Thursday, Mr. Trump took a softer tone on China, saying that Mr. Xi “has been a friend of mine for a long period of time.”

周四，特朗普对中国采取了较为温和的语气，称习近平“是我的老朋友”。

“We’ll see what happens with China,” Mr. Trump said. “We would love to be able to work a deal.”

“我们且看中国如何应对，”特朗普表示。“我们很希望能够达成一笔交易。”