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习近平的外交博弈:试图拉拢美国向日本施压

KEITH BRADSHER, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS

2025年11月26日

特朗普总统与习近平主席于10月在韩国釜山会面。随着中日两国紧张局势升级,两国领导人于周一进行了通话。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

If anyone needed evidence that a critical moment is developing in Asia-Pacific diplomacy, look no further than the phone call on Monday between Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and President Trump.

若需证据证明亚太外交正迎来关键时刻,只需看看周一中国最高领导人习近平与特朗普总统的通话。

Mr. Xi reached out to Mr. Trump because a Japanese leader is taking her country’s strongest stance since World War II to assert that Taiwan’s security is also Japan’s security. While that has long been apparent to military planners, given Taiwan’s proximity to southern Japan — and also to U.S. bases there — Japan’s new strategic posture has alarmed Beijing’s leaders.

习近平主动致电特朗普,是由于日本领导人正以二战以来最强硬姿态宣称台湾有事即日本有事。尽管对军事规划者而言,鉴于台湾毗邻日本南部及美军基地,这一关联早已不言自明,但日本的新战略姿态仍令北京高层警觉。

China has been doing everything possible in recent years to isolate Taiwan, an island democracy, and persuade other countries to accept Beijing’s claim to sovereignty there. Most countries have switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving Taiwan increasingly friendless. Countries like Lithuania and the Czech Republic that dare to contact Taiwan informally face swift retribution from Beijing. Chinese air and naval patrols circumnavigate Taiwan with increasing frequency.

近年来,中国竭尽全力孤立台湾这个民主岛屿,并试图说服其他国承认北京对台湾的主权主张。多数国家已将外交承认从台北转向北京,使台湾在国际上日益孤立。立陶宛、捷克等敢于非正式接触台湾的国家均迅速遭到北京的报复。中国环绕台湾的海空巡逻频率日益增加。

So few observers expected Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, to immediately take a tough stand toward China. But on Nov. 7, she told Parliament that an effort by China to blockade or invade Taiwan would be a “survival” issue for Japan, a term that has legal implications in Japan by permitting an overseas deployment of its military Self-Defense Forces.

几乎没有多少观察人士预料到日本新上任的首相高市早苗会立即对华强硬表态。但11月7日她在国会称,中国若封锁或入侵台湾,将成为日本的“存亡危机”问题——该表述在日本具有法律效力,意味着可授权自卫队海外部署。

25int China Japan 05 hmbq master1050日本首相高市早苗周二在东京官邸与特朗普总统通电话后向媒体发表讲话。

Ms. Takaichi’s comments were among the strongest ever by a Japanese leader about helping to defend Taiwan, although former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made similar remarks four times while in office.

高市早苗的言论是日本领导人迄今为止关于协防台湾的最强硬表态之一,尽管美国前总统拜登在任期间曾四次发表类似言论。

China responded with a series of economic, military and diplomatic measures against Japan. But Japanese officials are not backing down. During a trip on Sunday to a military base on the southern Japanese island of Yonaguni, located about 70 miles east of Taiwan, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi confirmed his country’s intention to proceed with plans to deploy medium-range antiaircraft missiles at the outpost.

中国对日本采取了一系列经济、军事和外交措施作为回应。但日本官员并没有退让。日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎周日视察了与那国岛军事基地,证实了日本打算在该前沿阵地部署中程防空导弹的计划。与那国岛位于日本南部,距离台湾以东约110公里。

The call on Monday by Mr. Xi to President Trump “comes amidst arguably the most serious crisis in China-Japan relations in over a decade — China is exerting an enormous amount of pressure on Japan, likely out of a belief that Tokyo will blink,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

习近平周一与特朗普的通话“正值中日关系遭遇十余年来最严峻危机——中国正对日本施加巨大压力,可能是认为东京会服软”,美国外交关系委员会亚洲研究学者戴维·萨克斯指出。

President Trump, apparently relishing his role being sought after by Japan and China, had a phone call with Ms. Takaichi hours after his conversation with Mr. Xi. Mr. Trump avoided tipping his hand publicly on whether he would yield to Chinese pressure to shift decades of American support for Taiwan, saying only that he planned to travel to Beijing next April.

特朗普总统显然乐于扮演被中日两国争相拉拢的角色,在与习近平通话数小时后又与高市早苗通话,特朗普没有公开透露他是否会屈服于中国的压力,改变美国数十年来对台湾的支持,只是说他计划明年4月访问北京。

25int China Japan 04 hmbq master1050日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎周日视察了位于日本南部石垣岛的军事基地。同日,他还访问了位于日本另一座岛屿与那国岛的军事基地。

Mr. Xi and his foreign minister, Wang Yi, have swiftly ratcheted up the diplomatic stakes by presenting China as the guarantor of the post-World War II global order — and by portraying Taiwan and its defenders as challengers to that order.

习近平主席及其外交部长王毅迅速加码外交博弈,将中国塑造成二战后全球秩序的守护者,并将台湾及其捍卫者描绘成该秩序的挑战者。

“It is shocking that Japan’s current leaders have publicly sent the wrong signal of attempting military intervention in the Taiwan issue, said things they shouldn’t have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched,” Mr. Wang said on Sunday.

“令人震惊的是,日本现职领导人竟然公开发出试图武力介入台湾问题的错误信号,讲了不该讲的话,越了不应碰的红线,”王毅周日表示。

According to a statement from Beijing, Mr. Xi emphasized to Mr. Trump that “China and the U.S. fought side by side against fascism and militarism; now, they should work together to safeguard the achievements of the victory in World War II.”

根据北京的声明,习近平向特朗普强调:“中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主义,当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。”

John Delury, an historian of Northeast Asia who is a senior fellow in Seoul for the Asia Society, said that Mr. Xi “is trying to get out a big narrative of Beijing as the guardian of the postwar international order.”

东北亚历史学家、亚洲协会驻首尔高级研究员鲁乐汉(John Delury)说,习近平“正着力塑造北京作为战后国际秩序守护者的宏大叙事”。

After months of feuding with the United States over President Trump’s tariffs, China and Japan now both want American support for their respective positions on Taiwan. That has strengthened the bargaining position of President Trump, who has sought Beijing’s help this autumn to buy American soybeans, supply rare earth metals and limit China’s financial and industrial support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

​在因特朗普总统的关税政策与美国争执数月后,中日两国如今都希望美国支持其各自在台湾问题上的立场。这加强了特朗普总统的谈判筹码。他在今秋一直寻求北京的帮助,购买美国大豆,供应稀土金属,并限制中国对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中提供金融和工业支持。

Beijing has halted seafood imports from Japan, canceled concerts in China by Japanese performers, halted many flights to Japan and discouraged Chinese tourists and students from visiting Japan. Three Chinese warships sailed past a Japanese island four days after Ms. Takaichi’s remark, and four Chinese armed coast guard ships have since passed close to Japanese-administered islands north of Taiwan. And China has asked the United Nations to distribute a strong criticism of Ms. Takaichi’s remark to member countries.

北京已经停止从日本进口海产品,取消了日本艺人在中国的演出,暂停了许多飞往日本的航班,并劝阻中国游客和学生前往日本。在高市早苗发表上述言论四天后,三艘中国军舰驶过一个日本岛屿,四艘中国武装海警船此后驶过了台湾以北日本管辖岛屿附近。中国还要求联合国向成员国分发一份强烈谴责高市早苗言论的文件。

25int China Japan 03 hmbq master1050上周,北京的一家日本超市。北京已暂停从日本进口海产品。

Japan has pushed back. It has submitted a written riposte to the U.N. and insisted that its planned missile deployment — which Japanese officials say is for the country’s own defense rather than projecting force — will proceed on Yonaguni Island, east of Taiwan. Public sentiment in Japan seems to support the country’s leader.

日本进行了反击。日本向联合国提交了一份书面回应,并坚持计划在台湾以东的与那国岛进行的导弹部署。日本官员说,导弹部署是为了日本自身的防御,而不是投射军力。日本的国内民意似乎也支持该国领导人。

“The more pressure China exerts on Japan, the more Japan feels compelled to prepare, recognizing the growing danger — Prime Minister Takaichi’s approval ratings are rising, and the Japanese people’s sense of crisis is also increasing,” said Ichiro Korogi, a professor of international studies at Kanda University of International Studies.

“中国对日本施加的压力越大,日本就越觉得有必要做好准备,意识到日益增长的危险——高市早苗首相的支持率正在上升,日本民众的危机意识也在增强,”神田外语大学的国际研究教授兴梠一郎说。

The tensions come as China has taken a long series of measures to strengthen its strategic position not just against Taiwan but also toward Japan and South Korea. China has built the world’s largest navy, part of a rapid military buildup that also includes intercontinental ballistic missiles and advanced airborne and underwater drones. China sent two aircraft carrier task forces last summer through part of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

在紧张局势出现之际,中国采取了一系列措施来加强其战略地位,不仅针对台湾,还针对日本和韩国。中国已经建立了世界上规模最大的海军,这是其快速军事建设的一部分,其中还包括洲际弹道导弹和先进的机载和水下无人机。去年夏天,中国派出了两艘航空母舰编队,穿越日本部分专属经济区。

Mr. Xi welcomed the leaders of Russia and North Korea to a military parade in Tiananmen Square in early September, then sent his premier, Li Qiang, to a military parade six weeks later in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. Both events showcased that three countries with nuclear weapons — China, Russia and North Korea — were united as they face Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — none of which, at the insistence of the United States, has developed its own nuclear weapons.

习近平主席于9月初在天安门广场阅兵式上欢迎俄罗斯和朝鲜领导人,六周后又派遣总理李强出席朝鲜首都平壤的阅兵仪式。这两场活动彰显出,面对在美国的坚持下均未发展核武器的日本、韩国和台湾,拥有核武器的中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜三国正在联合起来。

25int China Japan 02 hmbq master1050习近平(中)、金正恩(右)与普京共同出席9月在北京天安门广场举行的阅兵式。

Chinese naval vessels have been operating with increasing frequency around the circumference of Taiwan in the past several years. The Japanese antiaircraft missiles have less than half the range to reach Taiwan, much less mainland China. But they could be a concern for China in providing air cover for activities east of Taiwan.

在过去的几年里,中国海军舰艇越来越频繁地在台湾周边活动。日本的防空导弹射程不足抵达台湾的一半,更不用说中国大陆。但在为台湾以东的活动提供空中掩护时,它们可能会成为中国的一个担忧。

On Monday, Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, criticized Japan’s missile-deployment plans.

周一,中国外交部发言人毛宁批评了日本的导弹部署计划。

“Japan’s deployment of offensive weapons in southwest islands close to China’s Taiwan region is a deliberate move that breeds regional tensions and stokes military confrontation,” she said. “Given Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, this move is extremely dangerous and should put Japan’s neighboring countries and the international community on high alert.”

她说:“日方在与中国台湾邻近的西南诸岛部署进攻性武器,刻意制造地区紧张、挑动军事对立。联系到日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论,这一动向极其危险,需引起周边国家及国际社会高度警惕。”

Her comments, along with Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Wang’s evocation of Japan’s World War II sins, seemed to be another open effort to persuade Mr. Trump to start looking at security questions from China’s perspective.

她的言论,加上习近平主席和王毅外长对日本二战罪行的重提,似乎是又一次公开努力,试图说服特朗普开始从中国的角度看待安全问题。

In fact, China’s leaders are now presenting themselves so strongly as guardians of the existing international order that they sometimes sound like former President Biden, Mr. Delury, the Northeast Asia scholar, said. And in the phone call on Monday, he added, Mr. Xi was “using Biden’s language in appealing to Trump for some level of support.”

东北亚问题学者鲁乐汉说,事实上,中国领导人现在以现有国际秩序捍卫者的姿态表现得如此强烈,以至于有时听起来很像前总统拜登。他还说,在周一的通话中,习近平“运用拜登式的措辞向特朗普寻求某种程度的支持”。

储百亮(Chris Buckley)、Li You和Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道和研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。

River Akira Davis常驻东京,报道日本经济和商业新闻。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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