2025年5月8日
As Donald J. Trump has injected chaos into the world by roiling America’s alliances and threatening economic turmoil with his wall of tariffs, China has tried to sell a consistent message: We will be a force of global stability during a turbulent time.
在特朗普动摇美国的盟友关系、筑起关税高墙引发全球经济动荡,从而给世界注入混乱之际,中国试图向世界推销一个始终如一的信息:我们将是一个动荡时期里维护全球稳定的力量。
That pitch will be more difficult to square as Xi Jinping visits Moscow this week for talks with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who will honor the Chinese leader as the “main guest” at a military parade on Friday marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
但随着习近平本周前往莫斯科与俄罗斯总统普京举行会谈,这个说教将更难让人接受。在周五举行的纪念苏联在第二次世界大战中战胜纳粹德国80周年的阅兵式上,普京将把习近平奉为“主要嘉宾”。
For Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, the visit is a chance to burnish their legitimacy as leaders of countries that defeated fascist Germany and imperial Japan. Mr. Xi wants to use the anniversary to draw parallels between fascism and what he has described as American bullying.
对习近平和普京来说,这次访问是提高他们合法性的机会,他们是战胜了法西斯德国和日本帝国的国家的领导人。习近平想利用这个周年纪念日将法西斯主义和他称之为美国霸道行径的做法相提并论。
“We must learn from history, draw wisdom and strength from the profound lessons of the Second World War and the great victory of the anti-fascist war, resolutely oppose all forms of hegemony and power politics, and jointly create a better future for mankind,” Mr. Xi said in a signed article published in Russian media on Wednesday.
“我们要以史为鉴,从第二次世界大战的深刻教训和反法西斯战争的伟大胜利中汲取智慧和力量,坚决反对一切形式的霸权主义和强权政治,共同创造人类更加美好的未来,”习近平周三在俄罗斯媒体上发布的一篇署名文章中写道。
But his presence alongside Mr. Putin at Red Square will also inevitably remind the world of China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has been grinding on for more than three years, killing hundreds of thousands and upending European security.
但他与普京一起出现在红场也将不可避免地提醒世界:中国支持俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争。这场战争已持续了三年多,造成了数十万人死亡,颠覆了欧洲的安全。
The optics of the visit could undermine China’s efforts to repair its relationship with Europe to try to offset the pain of its punishing trade war with the United States. American and Chinese officials will hold initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland, but the likelihood of a prolonged fight remains high. China needs to maintain access to, or even expand, markets like in Europe, for its exports that had previously been destined for American buyers.
为了弥补与美国打一场艰难持久的贸易战给经济带来的痛苦,中国正在试图修复与欧洲的关系。但在外界看来,习近平访问俄罗斯会削弱中国的这一努力。美国和中国的官员本周末将在瑞士举行首次贸易谈判,但持久贸易战的可能性仍很高。中国需要在欧洲这样的市场保持甚至扩大准入,为原本出口美国的商品寻找新出路。
中国领导人习近平去年曾在俄罗斯的喀山与俄罗斯总统普京见面。两名领导人在过去十年里已见了十多次面。
“Xi’s presence in Moscow, alongside Putin, will serve as a stark reminder to Europe of just how close this relationship has become, and the threat that it could one day pose to NATO’s eastern flank,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser at Rhodium Group and a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States based in Berlin.
“习近平与普京一起出现在莫斯科,这将是对欧洲的一个赤裸裸的提醒:中国与俄罗斯的关系已变得多么密切,以及这种关系可能有朝一日对北约东翼构成威胁,”荣鼎咨询公司的高级顾问诺亚·巴金说,他也是美国德国马歇尔基金会柏林分会的客座高级研究员。
That closeness may have been overshadowed recently by Mr. Trump’s attempts to strike a peace deal in Ukraine that heavily favored Russia, Mr. Barkin added, but it will come back into focus now that China is trying to court Europe.
特朗普最近曾试图为结束乌克兰战争达成一项对俄罗斯极为有利的和平协议,这也许掩盖了中俄之间的密切关系,巴金补充说,但中国现在试图取悦欧洲的做法将让中俄关系重新受到关注。
Beijing has long sought to peel the affluent nations of the European Union from Washington’s influence. Those efforts have been stymied by tensions over human rights; a yawning trade imbalance fueled by the flood of Chinese exports like electric vehicles; and most significantly, China’s continued diplomatic and economic support for Russia despite the war in Ukraine.
中国政府长期以来一直寻求将欧盟富裕国家从美国的影响下剥离出来。但一些事情一直阻挠着这些努力:人权问题引发的紧张关系,中国电动汽车等产品大量涌入欧盟导致贸易失衡加剧,尤其是中国继续向俄罗斯提供外交和经济支持,尽管俄罗斯发动了入侵乌克兰的战争。
In recent days, Beijing has been trying to initiate a thaw with Brussels, sensing an opening from the fracturing of the trans-Atlantic alliance because of the Trump administration’s antagonism toward Europe. In a statement on Tuesday, Mr. Xi called for a “healthy and stable China-E.U. relationship.”
近日,由于特朗普政府对欧洲的敌对态度已在跨大西洋联盟中引发裂痕,中国意识到了一个机会,因此一直在试图缓和与欧盟的关系。习近平已在周二的一个讲话中呼吁发展“健康稳定的中欧关系”。
On Tuesday, the Chinese foreign ministry said China and the European Parliament had agreed to remove restrictions on exchanges between their officials, and confirmed that China had lifted sanctions on members of the European Parliament. China’s moves have been seen by analysts as an attempt to persuade the Europeans to restart talks on a stalled investment agreement, though there appears to be little enthusiasm in Brussels for doing so.
中国外交部周二说,中国和欧洲议会已同意取消对双方官员往来的限制,并确认中国已解除了对欧洲议会议员的制裁。分析人士认为,中国此举意在说服欧洲人重启陷入停滞的投资协定谈判,尽管欧盟似乎对此缺乏热情。
乌克兰基辅的一栋住宅楼上个月在俄罗斯的一次袭击中受损。中国继续向俄罗斯提供外交和经济支持是莫斯科能够维持其在乌克兰战争的关键。
Mr. Xi is trying to strike a “risky diplomatic balance,” hoping that he can exploit divisions in Europe between those who view China as a threat, and those that view it as a vital business partner, said Alicja Bachulska, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
欧洲对外关系委员会中国外交政策专家阿里恰·巴丘尔斯卡说,习近平正在试图找到一种“高风险的外交平衡”,希望利用欧盟内部的分歧——欧盟中有些人将中国视为威胁,也有些人将中国视为重要的商业伙伴。
But in Beijing on Tuesday, the European Union’s ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, used a speech at a reception celebrating ties between the European Union and China to pointedly highlight how Russia’s war on Ukraine weighed heavily on the 27-nation bloc.
但周二在北京举行的庆祝欧盟与中国建交50周年的招待会上,欧盟驻中国大使豪尔赫·托莱多发表讲话时尖锐地指出,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰让欧盟27个成员国肩负了多么沉重的压力。
“The E.U. will stand with Ukraine, whatever it takes and for how long it takes,” Mr. Toledo said at an event that was attended by one of China’s most senior diplomats, Hua Chunying.
“欧盟将与乌克兰站在一起,无论付出什么代价,无论需要多长时间,”托莱多在招待会上说,中国外交部副部长华春莹出席了招待会。
To show off China’s friendship with Russia, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s honor guard will perform at Friday’s Victory Day parade in Moscow. Mr. Putin has long attached great importance to May 9, the day when Moscow celebrates its victory over the Nazis. The Soviet Union lost an estimated 27 million soldiers and civilians during the war, a staggering death toll, which many Russians view as the high cost Moscow had to bear to save the world from the fascist threat.
为彰显中俄友谊,中国人民解放军仪仗队将参加周五在莫斯科举行的胜利日阅兵式。普京素来非常重视5月9日,这是俄罗斯纪念反法西斯战争胜利的日子。据估算,苏联在卫国战争中损失了2700万军民,许多俄罗斯人将这个惊人的死亡人数视为莫斯科为拯救世界免遭法西斯威胁不得不付出的惨重代价。
The Russian leader has drawn upon that emotional history to motivate his forces fighting against Ukraine, falsely casting the Ukrainian leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, as the head of a Nazi government that once again must be defeated, regardless of the cost.
普京一直利用卫国战争的情感历史来激励在乌克兰作战的俄罗斯士兵,他把身为犹太人的乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基虚假地描述为一个必须不惜代价再次打败的纳粹政府的首脑。
Perhaps no foreign leader has been more helpful to Mr. Putin in that war than Mr. Xi. As Russia faced isolation from the West, China increased its engagement with Moscow, keeping the Russian economy afloat through purchases of oil and other natural resources and supplying Russia with critical dual-use technology and components to sustain the war effort. China also eased shocks to the Russian consumer economy, becoming a top seller of cars and other durable goods, as Western brands retreated from the Russian market.
也许没有哪个外国领导人比习近平在这场战争中为普京提供了更大帮助。在俄罗斯面临西方孤立的时候,中国加强了与俄罗斯的往来,通过购买石油和其他自然资源让俄罗斯经济得以维持,还向俄罗斯提供对维持战争至关重要的军民两用技术和零部件。随着西方品牌退出俄罗斯市场,中国把汽车和其他耐用品大量销售给俄罗斯,缓解了俄罗斯消费者受到的经济冲击。
周二的一场演出标志着俄罗斯胜利日庆祝活动的开始。普京一直非常重视5月9日,这是俄罗斯庆祝反法西斯战争胜利的日子。
As much as Mr. Xi may want to win over Europe, his relationship with Mr. Putin is paramount. He views Russia as a critical counterweight to the United States and a partner in forging an alternative world order suspicious of Western dominance.
尽管习近平想把欧洲争取过来,但他与普京的关系是首要的。他把俄罗斯视为制衡美国的关键力量,以及建立一个对西方主导地位持怀疑态度的替代世界秩序的重要伙伴。
“Standing next to Putin will signal that he has leverage, he has bet on the right horse, and the audience will be domestic and in the global south,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, referring to developing countries.
“与普京并肩而站将释放三重信号:他拥有的政治筹码,他押对了宝,他的受众将在国内和全球南方,”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说,“全球南方”指的是发展中国家。
Mr. Putin said last month that Mr. Xi would be Russia’s “main guest” at the Victory Day celebrations. Moscow will also treat the Chinese leader’s trip, stretching from May 7 to 10, as a “separate visit” complete with bilateral talks and events, Mr. Putin said. The leaders are expected to sign agreements, and, in September, Mr. Putin will visit China when Beijing marks the anniversary of the end of World War II.
普京上个月曾说,习近平将是俄罗斯胜利日庆祝活动上的“主要嘉宾”。他同时透露,除了出席胜利日庆祝活动外,中国领导人还将在5月7日至10日对俄罗斯另行国事访问,参加双边会谈和活动。预计两国领导人将签署协议,普京也将在今年9月中国纪念抗日战争胜利的时候访问中国。
Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, who have met dozens of times in the past decade, regularly speak of a stable, enduring and long-term relationship between their countries. Projecting solidarity with Russia is crucial for China at a time when President Trump has pursued an attempted rapprochement with Moscow while launching a trade war against Beijing.
在过去十年里,普京与习近平数十次举行会面,他们频繁强调两国关系稳定、持久且具有长期性。在特朗普总统试图与莫斯科和解,同时对中国发动贸易战的时候,展现与俄罗斯的团结对中国至关重要。
“The priority was to signal to the U.S. that China and Russia share an unbreakable bond. There have been some moments of doubts and suspicion in the past few months, especially given the direct engagement between the United States and Russia,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. Now with American efforts to mediate a peace deal in Ukraine at a stalemate, “there are more incentives between China and Russia to present a solid image of their alignment.”
“最重要的是向美国发出信号,表明中俄两国有牢不可破的纽带。过去几个月有过一些疑虑和猜疑,尤其是在美国与俄罗斯进行直接接触的时候,”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。现在美国为结束乌克兰战争达成和平协议的努力已陷入僵局,“有更多激励中俄展现两国结盟牢不可破形象的东西。”