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五角大楼称中国核武器数量仍在强劲增长

储百亮, JOHN ISMAY

2024年12月19日

中国青岛一个海军博物馆里的水兵。五角大楼的一份报告称,中国海军“继续发展成为一支全球力量”。 Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

China’s nuclear arsenal and other elements of its armed forces have grown robustly despite anticorruption investigations that have shaken the People’s Liberation Army at its highest levels, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

五角大楼周三表示,尽管反腐调查震动了解放军最高层,但中国的核武库及其他武装力量仍在强劲增长。

China’s navy “continues to develop into a global force, gradually extending its operational reach beyond East Asia,” the Defense Department said in an annual report assessing Beijing’s military strength. It said China also seemed to be exploring the production of conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, which would give it another option — alongside its 135 or so nuclear long-range missiles — that could be used to threaten the continental United States.

在一份评估北京方面军事实力的年度报告中,美国国防部表示,中国海军“在持续发展成为一支全球力量,逐步将其行动范围扩大到东亚以外”。报告称,中国似乎还在探索生产常规洲际弹道导弹,这将为其在已有的约135枚核远程导弹之外提供另一种可用于威胁美国本土的选项。

China does not disclose how many nuclear weapons it has. The Pentagon report estimates that it has added about 100 nuclear warheads since last year, bringing its stockpile to more than 600 by mid-2024. That is still much smaller than the arsenals of the United States and Russia, but China appears to be on track to deploy more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, the report said. Russia and the United States each deploy 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons under a treaty that could expire in 2026.

中国没有透露它拥有的核武器数量。五角大楼的报告估计,自去年以来,中国已增加了约100枚核弹头,到2024年中期,库存超过600枚。报告称,这一数字仍远低于美国和俄罗斯的核武库,但中国似乎有望在2030年前部署超过1000枚核弹头。根据一项可能于2026年到期的条约,俄罗斯和美国各自部署了1550枚战略核武器。

To counter China, the Biden administration has been expanding the United States’ security partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region, making deals that would allow U.S. forces to disperse across small islands and strike China with anti-ship weapons and cruise missiles. The Pentagon report may feed into calls for the incoming Trump administration to focus on China’s rising military strength, even as the United States grapples with Russia’s war in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East.

为了对抗中国,拜登政府一直在扩大美国在亚太地区的安全伙伴关系,并达成协议,允许美国军队分散到一些小岛上、用反舰武器和巡航导弹打击中国的协议。即便美国正在努力应对俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争和中东的动荡,此次五角大楼的报告或将促使外界呼吁即将上任的特朗普政府对中国不断增强的军事实力予以重点关注。

China’s nuclear buildup indicates that its leaders see a need to expand the range of destructive options they could deploy against the United States in a crisis or a war, the Pentagon said. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has developed the country’s arsenal more quickly than any previous leader.

五角大楼表示,中国的核武库建设显示,中国领导人认为有必要扩大他们在危机或战争中可对美国部署的破坏性选项范围。中国领导人习近平发展武器库的速度比其所有前任都要快。

18china nuclear lqpm master1050阅兵式上展示的洲际弹道导弹,2019年摄于北京。

The Pentagon said China seemed to have finished constructing three missile fields with 320 launch silos in its northern deserts and had placed missiles in some of the silos. It said China’s rocket force was building dozens more silos to house Dongfeng-5 intercontinental missiles, each of which can rain multiple warheads on an enemy.

五角大楼称,中国似乎已在北部沙漠地区建成三个拥有320个发射井的导弹发射场,并在一些发射井中部署了导弹。五角大楼表示,中国的火箭军正在建造数十个发射井,以容纳东风-5型洲际导弹,每枚该型号的导弹都可向敌方发射多枚弹头。

China’s “force modernization suggests that it seeks the ability to inflict far greater levels of overwhelming damage to an adversary in a nuclear exchange,” the report said. China’s “expanding nuclear force will enable it to target more U.S. cities, military facilities and leadership sites than ever before in a potential nuclear counterstrike,” it added.

报告称,中国的“军队现代化表明,它寻求在核交战中向对手造成更大程度压倒性破坏的能力”。报告补充说,中国“不断扩张的核力量将使其能够在潜在的核反击中比以往任何时候都能将更多的美国城市、军事设施和领导人所在的地点作为打击目标”。

The advances reported by the Pentagon came despite recent corruption scandals in the Chinese military.

尽管中国军方近期爆出腐败丑闻,但五角大楼的报告显示,中国的军力仍然取得了进展。

China’s Ministry of National Defense revealed last month that Adm. Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission — the Communist Party body that controls the armed forces — had been suspended on suspicion of “serious violations of discipline,” a phrase that usually means corruption.

中国国防部上个月透露,中央军委委员、海军上将苗华因涉嫌“严重违纪”被停职,而“严重违纪”通常意味着腐败。

In June, party leaders officially accused two recent Chinese defense ministers — Gen. Li Shangfu and Gen. Wei Fenghe — of taking bribes and selling military promotions. Last year, Mr. Xi abruptly replaced two commanders of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which controls nearly all of China’s nuclear missiles.

6月,中共领导人正式指控最近的两位中国国防部长——李尚福将军和魏凤和将军——收受贿赂和为他人谋取利益。去年,习近平突然更换了控制着中国几乎所有核导弹的解放军火箭军的两名指挥官。

Some of the corruption may have involved the silos built for ballistic missiles, but any issues with compromised silos have probably been addressed, the Pentagon report said. The report did not say how U.S. officials had reached those conclusions. The United States uses satellites and other technologies to closely monitor Chinese nuclear sites.

五角大楼的报告称,部分腐败可能涉及弹道导弹发射井,但任何与涉事发射井有关的问题可能都已被解决。报告没有说明美国官员是如何得出这些结论的。美国会使用卫星和其他技术密切监视中国核设施。

“The extent of the current wave of corruption cases, touching every service in the P.L.A., may have shaken Beijing’s confidence in high-ranking P.L.A. officials,” the report said, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.

报告指出,“当前这波腐败案件波及解放军各军种,可能已经动摇了北京对解放军高级官员的信心。”

Still, disruption to China’s military programs from the scandals seems to have been limited, said Andrew S. Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. “They are fundamentally a speed bump, not a showstopper,” he wrote in an email. “With some of the world’s greatest military resources at his command, Xi is pressing ahead with determination.”

不过,美国海军战争学院战略学教授安德鲁·S·埃里克森表示,这些丑闻对中国军事计划的干扰似乎有限。“从根本上说,这些事件只是构成了减速带的角色,而不是阻碍因素,”他在电子邮件中写道。“习近平掌握着世界上最强大的军事资源,他正在坚定地向前迈进。”

Much of China’s military planning is focused on Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. Leaders in Beijing have long said that they want to peacefully absorb Taiwan into China, but they also say they may resort to war. China has been stepping up naval and air force forays near Taiwan to increase its pressure on the island.

中国的大部分军事计划都聚焦在台湾方面,这是一个自治的民主岛屿,北京声称台湾是其领土。北京领导人长期以来一直表示,他们希望和平地将台湾纳入中国,但他们也表示可能会诉诸战争。中国一直在台湾附近加强海军、空军方面的军事行动,以增加对该岛的压力。

But the Pentagon report concluded that China remains some distance from being able to confidently consider invading Taiwan. It said China had shortcomings in urban warfare, which could be needed to seize Taiwanese cities, and in its ability to sustain supplies at long distances.

但五角大楼的报告得出的结论是,中国距离有信心考虑入侵台湾还有一段距离。报告称,中国在城市战方面存在不足,而这可能是夺取台湾城市所必需的,而且中国在远距离维持补给方面也存在不足。

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be “a significant political and military risk” for the Communist Party and Mr. Xi, “even assuming a successful landing and breakout past Taiwan beachhead defenses,” the report said.

报告称,“即使在假设能成功登陆并突破台湾滩头防御的前提下”,对共产党和习近平来说,对台湾进行水陆两栖入侵仍将构成“重大的政治和军事风险”。

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