In recent years, one of China’s biggest requests of American officials has been that the United States relax its strict controls on advanced artificial intelligence chips, measures that were put in place to slow Beijing’s technological and military gains.

近年来，中国对美国官员提出的一个主要要求就是希望能够放宽对先进人工智能芯片的严格管控，这些限制措施旨在延缓北京在科技和军事上的发展。

Last week, the Trump administration did just that, as it allowed the world’s leader in A.I. chips, the U.S.-based Nvidia, to begin selling a lower-level but still coveted chip known as H20 to China.

上周，特朗普政府真的这么做了，它允许全球人工智能芯片的主导企业——总部位于美国的英伟达——开始向中国销售一款性能较低但仍令人垂涎的H20芯片。

The move was a dramatic reversal from three months ago, when President Trump himself banned China from accessing the H20, while also imposing triple-digit tariffs on Beijing. That set off an economically perilous trade clash, as China retaliated by clamping down on exports of minerals and magnets that are critical to American factories, including automakers and defense manufacturers.

此举是对三个月前的政策的戏剧性逆转，当时特朗普总统本人力主禁止向中国出售H20芯片，同时还对北京加征三位数的关税。由此引发了一场危及经济的贸易冲突——中国采取反制措施，限制了对美国工厂（包括车企和国防制造商）至关重要的矿物及磁体的出口。

China’s decision to cut off access to those materials upended the dynamic between the world’s largest economies. The Trump administration, which came into office determined to bully China into changing its trade behavior with punishing tariffs, appeared to realize the perils of that approach. Now, the administration has resorted to trying to woo China instead.

中国切断这些材料供应的决定颠覆了全球两大经济体之间的博弈态势。在上任的时候曾经决心通过惩罚性关税逼迫中国改变贸易行为的特朗普政府似乎意识到了这种策略的危险性。现在，它转而试图拉近与中国的关系。

Officials throughout the government say the Trump administration is putting more aggressive actions on China on hold, while pushing forward with moves that the Chinese will perceive positively. That includes the reversal on the H20 chip.

美国政府各部门官员表示，特朗普政府正在暂停对华采取更激进行动，同时推动会给中国留下好印象的举措，其中就包括H20芯片的政策逆转。

The H20 decision was primarily motivated by top Trump officials who agreed with Nvidia’s arguments that selling the chip would be better for American technology leadership than withholding it, people familiar with the move say.

据知情人士透露，H20芯片的解禁决策主要由特朗普政府高层推动，他们认同英伟达的观点：相比禁止出口，销售这款芯片更有利于保持美国的技术领导地位。

But Trump officials have also claimed that it was part of the trade talks. After telling Congress in June that there was “no quid pro quo in terms of chips for rare earths,” Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, reversed those comments on July 15, saying that the H20 move was “all part of a mosaic” of talks with China. “They had things we wanted, we had things they wanted, and we’re in a very good place,” he said.

但特朗普官员也声称，这是贸易谈判的一部分。6月向国会表示“不存在芯片换稀土的交换条件”后，财政部长斯科特·贝森特在7月15日又改口称，H20解禁是与中国谈判的“整体框架的一部分”。他说：“他们有我们想要的东西，我们有他们想要的东西，我们目前形势非常好。”

英伟达的一款芯片。该公司首席执行官黄仁勋近期在华盛顿展开了一系列游说活动，敦促政界人士开放对华人工智能芯片的销售。

A Chinese Ministry of Commerce official seemed to reject that on Friday, saying that the United States had “taken the initiative” to approve the H20 sales. China believes the U.S. should continue to remove its trade and economic restrictions, the official said.

中国商务部官员上周五似乎否认了这种说法，称美国“主动批准了”H20的销售。这位官员强调，中方认为美方应继续取消经贸限制。

A person familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that the H20 chip was not specifically discussed in meetings between Chinese and American officials in Geneva and London this spring. But the reversal was part of a more recent cadence of warmer actions the United States and China have taken toward each other. For instance, Beijing agreed in recent weeks to block the export of several chemicals used to make fentanyl, an issue Mr. Trump has been concerned about.

据一名知情人士透露，今春在日内瓦和伦敦的中美官员会谈中并未具体讨论H20芯片，由于未获授权公开谈论此事，此人要求匿名。但此次政策逆转是近期两国相互采取的缓和行动的一部分。例如，中国最近几周同意对几种芬太尼前体进行出口管制——这恰是特朗普长期关注的问题。

Recent events have underscored the influence that China has over the U.S. economy. When Mr. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese exports in April, some top Trump officials thought Beijing would quickly fold, given its recent economic weakness. Instead, Beijing called Mr. Trump’s bluff by restricting rare earths needed by American makers of cars, military equipment, medical devices and electronics.

近期的事态凸显了中国对美国经济的影响力。当特朗普4月提高中国出口商品的关税时，部分政府高层认为北京会因经济疲软迅速妥协。但中方认定特朗普在虚张声势，对美国汽车、军工装备、医疗设备和电子产业制造商所需的稀土采取出口限制。

As the flow of those materials stopped, Mr. Trump and other officials began receiving calls from chief executives saying their factories would soon shut down. Ford, Suzuki and other companies shuttered factories because of the lack of supply.

随着这些原材料的供应中断，特朗普和其他官员开始接到首席执行官们的电话，称工厂很快就要停产。福特、铃木等企业的工厂因供应链中断而停产。

Mr. Trump and his top advisers were surprised by the threat that Beijing’s countermove posed, people familiar with the matter say. That brought the United States back to the negotiating table this spring to strike a fragile trade truce, which Trump officials are now wary of upsetting. That agreement dropped tariffs from a minimum 145 percent to 30 percent, with the Chinese agreeing to allow rare earths to flow as freely as before.

据知情人士透露，北京的反制措施所构成的威胁令特朗普及其高级幕僚始料未及。这促使美方今春重返谈判桌，达成了脆弱的贸易休战——特朗普政府官员现在生怕打破这一局面。根据协议，关税从最低145%降至30%，而中方则同意恢复稀土的正常供应。

The administration’s caution when it comes to China has been amplified by Mr. Trump’s desire for an invitation to Beijing later this year. The president, who has been feted on other foreign trips, wants to engage in face-to-face trade negotiations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has begun recruiting chief executives for a potential delegation, setting off a competition over who will get to ride in Air Force One, according to people familiar with the plans.

特朗普渴望获邀于今年晚些时候访华，这进一步强化了政府对华政策的谨慎态度。这位在其他外访中备受礼遇的总统希望与中国领导人习近平进行面对面的贸易谈判。据知情人士透露，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克已开始为这一可能的行程物色企业高管代表，由此引发众人对随总统专机出访的机会展开争夺。

Craig Allen, a retired diplomat, said both countries were “clearly preparing for a summit meeting,” adding, “that’s bringing forth measures that the other side wants and it’s also holding back measures that the other side doesn’t want.”

退休外交官克雷格·艾伦表示，两国“显然正在为峰会做准备”，并说“这促使双方做出一些迎合彼此的举措，停止一些会让对方反感的动作”。

“It’s like a dance,” Mr. Allen said. “One side makes a move, the other side makes a move to correspond to that.”

“这就像跳舞，”艾伦说，“一方做出一个动作，另一方做出相应的动作。”

The Commerce Department declined to comment. The White House, the Treasury Department and the Office of the United States Trade Representative did not respond to a request for comment.

商务部拒绝置评。白宫、财政部和美国贸易代表办公室均未回应置评请求。

“The government understands that forcing the world to use foreign competition would only hurt America’s economic and national security,” John Rizzo, a spokesman for Nvidia, said.

英伟达发言人约翰·里佐表示：“政府明白，强迫全球使用外国竞争对手的产品，只会损害美国的经济与国家安全。”

A Chinese bargaining chip

中国的谈判筹码

Opposition to China has fueled bipartisan action for the last decade. Now, Mr. Trump’s more hawkish supporters are quietly watching as the president remakes the party’s China strategy.

过去十年来，对中国的强硬立场一直推动着两党在该议题上的共同行动。现在，随着特朗普重新塑造共和党的对华战略，他那些立场更为鹰派的支持者正悄然观望。

Though few are willing to speak out publicly, officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have privately expressed concern that the trade war has given China an opening to finally bring U.S. technology controls onto the negotiating table.

尽管鲜少有人公开表态，但特朗普政府及国会成员在私下里担忧，这场贸易战为中国创造了契机，终将使美国技术管制措施被纳入谈判框架。

Christopher Padilla, a former export control official in the George W. Bush administration, said the fact that the United States was now negotiating over what were supposed to be security restrictions was “a significant accomplishment for the Chinese.”

乔治·W·布什政府时期的出口管制官员克里斯托弗·帕迪拉指出，美国正在就本属安全领域的限制措施进行谈判，这“可说是中国取得的一个重大突破。”

“They’ve been after this for decades, and now they’ve succeeded,” he said. “I assume the Chinese are going to demand more concessions on export controls in return for whatever we want next.”

他说：“他们为此努力了几十年，现在他们如愿以偿。我猜中国人会要求在出口管制方面做出更多让步，以换取我们接下来想要的东西。”

Mr. Trump was the first to harness the power of U.S. export controls, by targeting Chinese tech giant Huawei and putting global restrictions on American technology in his first term. But the Biden administration expanded those rules. Concerned that China’s growing A.I. capacity would advance its military, Biden officials cracked down on exports of Nvidia chips, seeing them as the most effective choke point over Chinese A.I. capabilities.

特朗普是首个利用美国出口管制力量的总统，在其第一任期内，他将矛头对准中国科技巨头华为，并对美国技术实施了全球限制。但拜登政府进一步扩大了这些规定的范围。由于担心中国不断增强的人工智能能力会提升军事实力，拜登政府官员对英伟达芯片的出口进行了限制，认为这是遏制中国人工智能发展的最有效卡点。

特朗普总统与黄仁勋4月在白宫举行了会晤。黄仁勋指出，美国对华技术封锁反而加剧了中国自主技术研发的紧迫性。

Since then, when Chinese officials raised their objections to U.S. technology controls in meetings, U.S. officials had responded by insisting that the measures were national security matters and not up for debate.

从那以后，当中国官员在会议中对美国的技术管制提出异议时，美国官员都坚称这些措施关乎国家安全，不容讨论。

But in the meeting in Geneva in May, China finally had a powerful counterargument. Beijing insisted that its minerals and magnets, some of which go to fighter jets, drones and weaponry, were a “dual-use” technology that could be used for the military as well as civilian industries, just like A.I. and chips. It demanded reciprocity: If the United States wanted a steady flow of rare earths, Washington should also be ready to lessen its technology controls.

但在5月的内瓦会议上，中国终于拿出了有力的反驳。中国坚称，其生产的矿产和磁体（其中一些用于战斗机、无人机和武器装备）属于“军民两用”技术，既可用于军事领域，也可用于民用工业，这一点与人工智能和芯片并无二致。中国要求对等对待：如果美国希望能够得到稀土的稳定供应，那么华盛顿就应准备放宽技术管制。

It’s not clear exactly what the United States agreed to in Geneva: The White House released a joint statement about the meeting, though more detailed text has not been made public. But when the United States put out an unrelated export control announcement the day after the Geneva summit concluded, China responded angrily, saying the statement “undermined the consensus” the countries had reached.

目前尚不清楚美国在日内瓦究竟承诺了什么：白宫发布了一份关于此次会议的联合声明，但详细内容并未公开。然而，在日内瓦峰会结束后的第二天，美国发布了一项与会议无关的出口管制公告，中国对此作出愤怒回应，称该声明“破坏了两国达成的共识”。

In a notice on May 13, the Commerce Department said that using Huawei’s A.I. chips “anywhere in the world” was an export control violation. The notice was directed at other nations considering purchasing Huawei chips, people familiar with the move said, not the Chinese. The announcement appeared to take other parts of the Trump administration by surprise, and within hours, the language in the release was walked back, though no policy changes were made.

在5月13日发布的公告中，美国商务部称，“在全球任何地方”使用华为的人工智能芯片都违反出口管制规定。知情人士表示，该公告针对的是其他考虑购买华为芯片的国家，而非中国。这一公告的发布似乎让特朗普政府的其他部门感到意外，几小时后，公告中的措辞被撤回，但政策并未改变。

Mr. Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the trade representative, expressed concerns that such moves could damage trade talks with China, people familiar with the incident said.

知情人士称，贝森特和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔曾对此类举措表示担忧，认为这可能会破坏与中国的贸易谈判。

China once again clamped down on rare earth exports. Trying to find its own leverage, the United States responded by restricting exports of semiconductor design software, airplane parts and ethane.

中国再次收紧了稀土出口管制。美国为寻找筹码，随即限制了半导体设计软件、飞机零部件和乙烷的出口。

The two sides restored their truce in a meeting in London in June. Since then, trade in those products has restarted. But U.S. companies complain that Chinese licenses for rare earth magnets are limited to six months, and that the Chinese government is requesting proprietary information to obtain those shipments.

6月，双方在伦敦举行的会议上恢复了休战状态。从那以后，这些产品的贸易重新启动。但美国企业抱怨称，中国对稀土磁体的许可证有效期仅为六个月，而且中国政府要求提供专有信息才能获得这些货物的出口许可。

Beijing has also continued to build out its export controls. On July 15, the day after Nvidia said it would be permitted to sell the H20 in China, Chinese officials announced new restrictions on exports of battery technology.

中国还在继续强化出口管制措施。7月15日，也就是英伟达表示获准向中国销售H20芯片的第二天，中国官员宣布了对电池技术出口的新限制。

The United States has been trying to decrease its dependence on China for rare earths, but there is no quick solution. China has a powerful hold over numerous industries, ranging from pharmaceuticals to solar panels to drones.

美国一直试图减少对中国稀土的依赖，但这并不能一蹴而就。从制药、太阳能电池板到无人机等，中国在众多行业都占据着举足轻重的地位。

“The challenge for the Trump administration is, how do they get out of this quagmire?” said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior adviser for technology analysis to the RAND Corporation. “It appears some competitive U.S. actions are now at the whims of Beijing, who can now determine the time, place and nature of U.S. tech and trade policy toward China.”

“特朗普政府面临的挑战是，如何摆脱这一困境？”兰德公司负责技术分析的高级顾问吉米·古德里奇表示。“看来美国的一些竞争性行动现在要受制于中国，中国现在可以决定美国对中国的科技和贸易政策的时机、地点和性质。”

Deal makers in the White House

白宫里的交易者

The change in the relationship with China has coincided with a separate shift in the administration, in which officials who favor technology controls on China have been sidelined in favor of those who support the tech industry’s ambitions to sell abroad.

对华关系的这一变化同特朗普政府内部的另一个转变相吻合：那些倾向于对中国实施技术管制的官员遭到边缘化，而支持科技行业拓展海外销售野心的官员则受到青睐。

Mr. Lutnick and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state who has long been an ardent China critic, have hewed closely to the position of the president, who is more of a deal maker than a national security hawk. And hawkish members of the National Security Council have been fired in recent months, after being accused of insufficient loyalty.

卢特尼克和长期以来对中国持强烈批评态度的国务卿鲁比奥始终紧跟总统的立场——总统更像是一个交易者，而非国家安全鹰派。近几个月来，国家安全委员会中那些持鹰派立场的成员因被指忠诚不够而遭到解职。

Their absence has paved the way for officials like David Sacks, the White House A.I. czar, who has criticized export controls, to push for tech companies to have freer rein. Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, has gone on a lobbying blitz in Washington, pushing politicians to open China for A.I. chip sales.

他们的离职为白宫人工智能沙皇戴维·萨克斯这样的官员铺平了道路，萨克斯曾对出口管制提出批评，现在他正推动科技公司更自由地发展。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在华盛顿展开了密集的游说活动，推动政界人士开放人工智能芯片的对华销售。

Mr. Huang has contended that blocking U.S. technology from China has backfired by creating more urgency for China to develop its own technology. He has argued that the Chinese military won’t use Nvidia chips, and pushed back against Washington’s consensus that China is an adversary, describing it a “competitor” but “not our enemy.”

黄仁勋认为，阻止美国技术进入中国产生了适得其反的效果，反而让中国更加迫切地想要自主研发技术。他坚称，中国军方不会使用英伟达芯片，并且反驳了华盛顿关于中国是敌手的共识，称中国是“竞争对手”而非“敌人”。

美国对华关系转变与特朗普政府内部的另一项变化相吻合，即那些主张对华实施技术管控的官员已遭边缘化。

Others have challenged those assertions, pointing to past research that the Chinese military has placed orders for Nvidia chips. Scientific papers published earlier this year also showed Chinese researchers with ties to military universities and a top nuclear weapons lab using Nvidia chips for general research.

也有人对这些说法提出了质疑，指出以往的研究显示，中国军方曾订购过英伟达芯片。今年早些时候发表的科学论文也表明，与军事院校和顶尖核武器实验室有关联的中国研究人员曾将英伟达芯片用于一般性研究。

Mr. Rizzo, the Nvidia spokesman, said in a statement that “non-military papers describing new and beneficial ways to use U.S. technology promote America.”

英伟达发言人里佐在一份声明中表示，“那些描述美国技术新的有益用途的非军事类论文实则推动了美国利益。”

In a letter on Friday, John Moolenaar, the Republican chairman of the House Select Committee on China, said the H20 chip had aided the rise of the Chinese A.I. model DeepSeek and would help China develop A.I. models to compete with American ones.

周五，众议院中国问题特别委员会主席、共和党人约翰·穆勒纳尔在一封信中表示，H20芯片助推了中国人工智能模型DeepSeek的崛起，并将帮助中国开发能够与美国相抗衡的人工智能模型。

These arguments do not appear to have persuaded the president. In an Oval Office meeting with Mr. Huang in July, Mr. Trump agreed with Nvidia that keeping American chips out of China would only help Huawei, and decided to reverse the H20 ban.

这些论点似乎并未说服总统。7月，在椭圆形办公室与黄仁勋的会面中，特朗普认同英伟达的观点——不让美国芯片进入中国只会让华为受益，于是决定撤销对H20芯片的禁令。

People familiar with Mr. Trump’s views say he has always viewed export controls more transactionally. In his first term, Mr. Trump agreed to roll back U.S. restrictions on ZTE at the urging of Mr. Xi. In this term, Mr. Trump and his advisers have begun using America’s control over A.I. chips as a source of leverage in negotiations with governments from the Middle East to Asia.

了解特朗普观点的人士表示，他一直以来都更倾向于从交易的角度看待出口管制。在其第一任期内，特朗普曾在习近平的敦促下，同意放宽对中兴通讯的限制。在本届任期内，特朗普及其顾问已开始利用美国对人工智能芯片的控制权，作为与中东和亚洲各国政府谈判的筹码。

With China, Mr. Trump has his own longstanding aspirations. He believes that U.S. businesses have been getting ripped off for decades, and that he can be the one to fix it, particularly if he negotiates directly with Mr. Xi. His advisers have begun strategizing toward a more substantial trade negotiation with China focused on market opening, as well as the potential visit this fall.

对于中国，特朗普有着自己长期的期望。他认为，几十年来，美国企业一直遭受剥削，而他能够解决这个问题，尤其是如果他能与习近平直接谈判的话。他的顾问们已开始制定策略，旨在与中国开展更实质性的贸易谈判，重点是市场开放，同时也在为今年秋天可能的访华行程做准备。