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从华为Mate 70看中国芯片发展的停滞

MEAGHAN TOBIN

2024年12月18日

华为Mate 70智能手机于11月发布后,北京的购物者正在试用产品。 Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

In the tense geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States for control of advanced technology, Huawei is often in the middle.

在中美两国争夺先进技术控制权的紧张地缘政治竞争中,华为经常处于中心位置。

The Chinese telecommunications giant is a main target of a U.S. trade blacklist and other controls intended to keep Chinese companies from buying or making advanced computer chips. Officials in Washington say these tiny chips, used to power chatbots and smartphones, are also essential for China’s efforts to build its military might.

这家中国电信巨头是美国贸易黑名单和其他管制措施的主要目标,这些措施旨在阻止中国公司购买或制造先进的计算机芯片。华盛顿的官员们表示,这些用于为聊天机器人和智能手机提供动力的微小芯片对中国的军事力量建设也至关重要。

Huawei is determined to prove that Washington’s trade barriers cannot hold it back. Last year, the company released a line of smartphones, the Mate 60, with chips more advanced than any previously made in China.

华为决心证明,华盛顿的贸易壁垒阻挡不了它。去年,该公司发布了一系列智能手机Mate 60,其芯片比中国之前制造的任何一款都要先进

But Huawei’s new series of phones, the Mate 70, released last month, indicates that the company has made little progress toward more advanced chips in the past year, according to a new analysis. The chips inside Huawei’s latest devices appear to have been made using the same manufacturing processes as the ones in last year’s phones, said Alexandra Noguera, an analyst at TechInsights, a Canadian research firm.

但根据一项新的分析,华为上个月发布的新系列手机Mate 70表明,该公司在过去一年里在采用更先进芯片方面进展甚微。加拿大研究公司TechInsights的分析师亚历山德拉·诺格拉称,华为最新设备中的芯片似乎采用了与去年的系列相同的制程。

Ms. Noguera and her colleagues examined the chips inside two models of the Mate 70 series and concluded that they were made by China’s top chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, known as SMIC.

诺吉拉和她的同事检查了两款Mate 70系列手机的芯片,结论是这些芯片由中国顶级芯片制造商中芯国际集成电路制造有限公司(简称中芯国际)制造。

The analysts compared the chips with others made by SMIC, including those in Huawei’s breakthrough Mate 60 phone. “Every dimension fits exactly what we have seen for the past two years,” Ms. Noguera said.

分析师将这些芯片与中芯国际生产的其他芯片进行了比较,包括华为突破性的Mate 60手机中的芯片。诺吉拉说:“每个维度都与我们过去两年所看到的完全吻合。”

That is not a surprise: SMIC is the only company in China that can make such chips. The finding is notable, however, because it suggests that U.S. restrictions are at least stalling the country’s advances in chip technology.

这并不奇怪:中芯国际是中国唯一能生产这种芯片的公司。但这一发现值得注意,因为它表明美国的限制至少阻碍了中国芯片技术的进步。

“The primary impact of the export controls has not been reversing China’s progress, it has been making it very difficult for SMIC to increase production capacity,” said Gregory C. Allen, a technology expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

“出口管制的主要影响不是扭转中国的进步,而是使中芯国际很难提高产能,”华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的技术专家格雷戈里艾伦表示。

SMIC did not respond to a request for comment. Huawei declined to comment.

中芯国际没有回应置评请求。华为拒绝置评。

The Chinese government has made the manufacturing of computer chips and other advanced technology a major policy priority. China has poured billions of dollars into its chip industry, helping to fund a major expansion of factories.

中国政府已将计算机芯片和其他先进技术的制造作为政策重点。中国向芯片行业已经投入了数十亿美元,为工厂的大规模扩张提供资金支持。

SMIC, which has close ties to the government, has built factories at a blistering pace. It has grown into one of the largest contract chipmakers in the world, making products that are designed by its clients, including Huawei.

中芯国际与政府关系密切,建厂速度惊人。它已发展成为全球最大的合约芯片制造商之一,生产由华为等客户设计的产品。

U.S. officials have progressively tightened restrictions to slow SMIC’s progress by limiting the kinds of chip-making tools it can buy from other countries. They have pushed Dutch and Japanese officials to stop their companies from supplying crucial machinery and equipment to SMIC’s most advanced factories.

美国官员通过限制中芯国际可以从其他国家购买的芯片制造工具的种类,逐步收紧限制,从而减缓了中芯国际的发展速度。他们促使荷兰和日本官员阻止本国公司向中芯国际最先进的工厂提供关键的机械设备。

That means SMIC depends on dated machinery. It is making even its most advanced chips using a manufacturing process that the world’s leading chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, had perfected by 2018.

这意味着中芯国际依赖于过时的机器。即使是在制造最先进的芯片时,中芯国际使用的还是世界领先的芯片制造商台积电在2018年之前完善的制造工艺。

The latest Huawei devices do not contain more advanced chips because SMIC is probably unable to make them at a large enough scale, Ms. Noguera said.

诺吉拉称,华为最新设备不含更先进的芯片,因为中芯国际可能无法大规模生产这些芯片。

“If they could, they would have,” she said.

她说:“如果可以,他们早就这么做了。”

Huawei’s devices are hugely popular in China. Its sales have grown faster than any other brand in China during the past year, according to Counterpoint Research, which analyzes the smartphone market.

华为手机在中国大受欢迎。据分析智能手机市场的Counterpoint Research公司称,过去一年,华为在中国的销售增长速度超过了任何其他品牌。

00China Chip 02 fhqt master1050去年,人们在北京一家华为专卖店外排队购买Mate 60。能买到一款采用中国制造的最先进部件的手机,购物者都很兴奋。

But widespread commercial success for Huawei’s latest devices will depend in part on its ability to secure a steady supply of chips from SMIC.

但是,华为最新设备能否取得广泛的商业成功,部分取决于它能否从中芯国际获得稳定的芯片供应。

And experts say SMIC is already pushing the limits of its outdated tools and factory processes to make enough chips for Huawei’s existing phones — a costly strategy that results in a high number of faulty chips.

专家称,中芯国际已经在挑战其过时工具和工厂工艺的极限,以便为华为现有手机生产足够的芯片——这种策略成本高昂,导致芯片良率不高。

In part to further slow SMIC’s advances, the Biden administration this month announced broader restrictions on advanced technology that can be sent to China. The updated rules add more than 100 Chinese companies, many of which make the tools and machinery needed to manufacture chips, to a restricted trade list.

为了进一步放慢中芯国际的发展步伐,拜登政府本月宣布对输往中国的先进技术实施更广泛的限制。更新后的规定将100多家中国公司列入限制贸易名单,其中许多公司生产制造芯片所需的工具和机械。

Since the Mate 60 Pro was launched last year, Huawei has been eating into Apple’s yearslong dominance in China. In 2022, three-quarters of high-end smartphones sold in China were iPhones. This year, the portion was about half, as Huawei’s share more than doubled, according to Canalys, a market research firm.

自去年推出Mate 60 Pro以来,华为一直在蚕食苹果多年来在中国市场的主导地位。2022年,在中国销售的高端智能手机中有四分之三是苹果手机。根据市场研究公司Canalys的数据,今年,这一比例约为一半,华为的份额增长了一倍多。

“SMIC, like Huawei, has obviously suffered from U.S. restrictions,” said Dan Wang, a fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. “But what matters for Beijing is not its yield rate or profitability as much as whether it is able to deliver the technology that China needs.”

“中芯国际和华为一样,显然受到了美国限制的影响,”耶鲁大学法学院蔡中曾中国中心研究员王丹说。“但对中国政府来说,重要的不是它的良率或利润率,而是它是否能提供中国需要的技术。”

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