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伊朗新最高领袖:哈梅内伊之子延续强硬神权统治

FARNAZ FASSIHI

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊2019年在德黑兰。 Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto, via Associated Press

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the recently killed supreme leader, as his father’s successor, according to a statement from top clerics published on state media early Monday local time, signaling the continuity of hard-line theocratic rule as Israeli and U.S. airstrikes pound the country.

当地时间周一凌晨,伊朗通过官方媒体发布高级教士声明,宣布任命前不久被杀的最高领袖之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊为其父继任者。美以空袭持续轰炸伊朗之际,此举标志着强硬派神权统治的延续。

Mr. Khamenei himself, though, is something of a mystery even within Iran.

但穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊本人即使在伊朗国内也颇具神秘色彩。

He is a son of the recently killed supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has been an influential figure in the shadows of power, coordinating military and intelligence operations at his father’s office. He is known to have very close ties to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and was considered their favored candidate.

他是不久前遇袭身亡的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊之子,长期作为权力幕后的重要人物,在父亲办公室协调军事与情报行动。他与权势强大的伊斯兰革命卫队关系极为密切,被视为卫队属意的候选人。

Unlike his father, Mr. Khamenei, 56, carries the full religious credentials as an ayatollah at the moment of his ascension. He was known for teaching popular Shiite seminary classes.

与父亲不同,现年56岁的哈梅内伊在接任时已拥有完整的阿亚图拉宗教资质,曾以在什叶派神学院开设广受欢迎的课程而闻名。

But his personality or politics outside of his father’s tight inner circle are not known. He seldom speaks or appears in public. And now he will take the helm not just as Iran’s new religious and political authority, but also as the commander in chief of its armed forces.

但在父亲严密的核心小圈子之外,他的个人性格与政治立场鲜为人知。他极少公开发言或露面。如今,他不仅即将掌管伊朗新的宗教与政治最高权力,还将担任武装部队总司令。

Vali R. Nasr, an expert on Iran and Shiite Islam at Johns Hopkins University, said that Mr. Khamenei would be a surprising choice, but a telling one.

约翰斯·霍普金斯大学伊朗与什叶派问题专家瓦利·纳赛尔表示,穆杰塔巴的继任出人意料,却很能说明问题。

“The choice of Mojtaba is choice of continuity with his father, and also he is more ready than other candidates to quickly consolidate power and assert control over the system,” said Mr. Nasr. He added that Mr. Khamenei had been considered a successor for a long time; but for the past two years, he had seemed to have dropped off the radar.

“选择穆杰塔巴是选择延续他父亲的路线,而且相比其他候选人,他更有能力迅速巩固权力、掌控整个体系,”纳赛尔说。他还说,穆杰塔巴很早便被视为接班人,但过去两年似乎淡出了公众视野。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had indicated to close advisers that he did not want his son to succeed him because he did not want the role to become hereditary, according to three senior Iranian officials familiar with Mr. Khamenei and the selection process. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal issues.

据三位熟悉穆杰塔巴及继任流程的伊朗高级官员透露,已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊曾向亲信顾问表示,不希望儿子接班,以免最高领袖一职变成世袭。这些官员因讨论敏感内部事务要求匿名。

After all, the Islamic revolution in 1979 had toppled a monarchy with the promise to end the hereditary transfer of power and return it to the people.

毕竟,1979年伊斯兰革命正是推翻了君主制,承诺终结权力世袭、将权力归还人民。

But Mr. Khamenei’s ascension suggests that those in Iran’s circles of power — the senior clerics, the Guards and influential politicians, such as the head of the National Security Council, Ali Larijani — had closed ranks at a time of acute crisis and war.

但穆杰塔巴的接任表明,在这场严重危机与战争时刻,伊朗权力核心圈——包括高级教士、革命卫队,以及包括国家安全委员会主席阿里·拉里贾尼在内的实权政治人物——已经团结一致。

Mr. Larijani, a pragmatic veteran politician who has taken center stage in running the country, and Mr. Khamenei are old allies and friends. Both men are also influential within Iran’s armed forces.

在国家运转中站到前台的务实派资深政治人物拉里贾尼与穆杰塔巴是多年盟友与好友,两人在伊朗武装部队内部均拥有深厚影响力。

The Revolutionary Guards were founded as an ideological force charged with defending the Islamic republic and its borders, and to provide a buffer layer of security in case of defections and coups in the army. The Guards have since turned into a political, military and economic powerhouse. They are directing the waves of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel, Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and U.S. bases and embassies in the region, as massive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue.

伊斯兰革命卫队最初作为意识形态武装力量成立,职责是捍卫伊斯兰共和国及其边境,并在军队出现叛逃或政变时提供安全缓冲。如今,卫队已成为集政治、军事、经济于一体的庞大势力。美以持续大规模空袭之际,他们正指挥一波波弹道导弹与无人机攻击以色列、波斯湾阿拉伯国家以及该地区的美军基地和美国使馆。

Mr. Khamenei was selected by a group known as the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior Shiite clerics. Even as the assembly was debating its choice on Tuesday, Israel struck a building in Qum, one of Shiite Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly would traditionally meet to vote on a new leader. But the building was empty, according to the Fars News agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerics were meeting virtually for security.

穆杰塔巴由名为“专家会议”的机构选出,该机构由88名什叶派高级教士组成。就在该机构周二商议人选时,以色列空袭了库姆一座建筑,这里是什叶派主要权力中心之一,也是专家会议传统上投票选举新领袖的场所。但据隶属革命卫队的法尔斯通讯社称,当时建筑内无人,教士们出于安全考虑转为线上开会。

During the deliberations, the majority of the senior clerics in the assembly pushed for Mr. Khamenei’s appointment, arguing that he had the qualifications needed to steer Iran in this moment, according to the three Iranian officials. Some clerics said that after the Ayatollah had been killed by America and Israel, choosing his son would honor his legacy.

三位伊朗官员表示,商议期间,专家会议中多数高级教士支持任命穆杰塔巴,认为他具备在当前时刻领导伊朗所需的资质。部分教士称,在阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遭美以刺杀后,选择他的儿子是对其遗志的致敬。

“Mojtaba is the wisest pick right now because he is intimately familiar with running and coordinating security and military apparatuses,” Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran, said in an interview. “He was in charge of this already.”

“穆杰塔巴是目前最明智的人选,因为他对安全与军事机构的运作和协调极为熟悉,”现居德黑兰的分析人士迈赫迪·拉赫马蒂在采访中表示。“这些工作他本来就在负责。”

03int Iran successor 02 jtvh master1050周日,伊朗民众在德黑兰哀悼最高领袖逝世。

But Mr. Rahmati acknowledged that the appointment carries the risk of further polarizing a population that is deeply divided, with many Iranians deeply opposed to the Islamic republic’s rule.

但拉赫马蒂也承认,这一任命可能让本就严重分裂的伊朗社会进一步两极分化,许多伊朗民众强烈反对伊斯兰共和国统治。

“A portion of the public will react negatively and forcefully to this decision, and it will have a backlash,” he said.

“部分民众会对这一决定做出强烈负面反应,会引发反弹,”他说。

The late Ayatollah Khamenei had the final say on all main state matters. He showed little flexibility on domestic reforms, and offered few concessions in nuclear negotiations with the United States. He ordered the lethal crackdown on nationwide protests in January that were calling for the end to his rule. Security forces killed at least 7,000 people during that crackdown, according to rights groups that say the numbers could rise significantly when verification is completed.

已故阿亚图拉哈梅内伊对国家所有重大事务拥有最终决定权。他在国内改革上态度强硬,在与美国的核谈判中极少让步。他曾下令镇压今年1月呼吁终结其统治的全国性抗议活动。人权组织称,安全部队在镇压中杀害了至少7000人,核实工作完成后这一数字还可能大幅上升。

Since the war began, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have killed not just Mr. Khamenei’s father, but also his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son; the Iranian government said.

伊朗政府表示,战争爆发以来,美以空袭不仅导致穆杰塔巴的父亲身亡,他的妻子扎赫拉·阿德尔、母亲曼苏雷·霍贾斯泰·巴格赫扎德以及他的一个儿子也被杀害。

Other candidates who were considered to be finalists for the supreme leader role were Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist who was part of the three-person transition council of leadership named after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic revolution’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

此前进入最高领袖最终候选名单的还有阿里礼萨·阿拉菲与赛义德·哈桑·霍梅尼。阿拉菲是教士兼法学家,也是阿亚图拉哈梅内伊遇袭后成立的三人权力过渡委员会成员;霍梅尼则是伊斯兰革命奠基人阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼的孙子。

Both Mr. Arafi and Mr. Khomeini are viewed as moderates, with the latter being close to the sidelined reformist political faction in Iran.

阿拉菲与霍梅尼均被视为温和派,后者与伊朗遭边缘化的改革派政治派系关系密切。

Some analysts hold that Mr. Khamenei might yet lean toward reform, despite his father’s style. They argue that he is of a younger, more pragmatic generation of clerics and because of his lineage would face less resistance from the hard-line and conservative factions.

部分分析人士认为,尽管其父风格强硬,穆杰塔巴仍有可能倾向改革。他们认为,他属于更年轻、更务实的一代教士,且凭借家族背景,他面临的强硬派与保守派系阻力更小。

Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mr. Khamenei, said in a phone interview from Tehran that if Mr. Khamenei did succeed his father, he might emerge as a figure in the style of the Saudi Arabian leader Mohammed bin Salman, who has brought some liberalization to his society.

与穆杰塔巴关系密切的政界人士阿卜杜勒雷扎·达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示,如果穆杰塔巴继任,其执政风格或将类似沙特阿拉伯领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼——后者已为本国社会带来一定程度的自由化改革。

“If there is anyone who could move toward some sort of de-escalation with the United States, it is him — any other person would face backlash from the ruling class and conservatives,” said Mr. Davari. “He intends to bring structural change.”

“如果说有谁能推动与美国的某种缓和,那就是他——换作其他人,都会遭到统治阶层与保守派的强烈反弹,”达瓦里说。“他有意推动结构性变革。”

How Washington would view him is uncertain. On Tuesday, at a news conference in Washington, President Trump said that many of the people his government had viewed as potential leaders of Iran had been killed since the fighting began. “Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody,” he said.

华盛顿方面将如何看待他仍不明确。周二,特朗普总统在华盛顿新闻发布会上表示,自冲突开始以来,他的政府认为可能成为伊朗领导人的不少人物已被击毙。“很快我们就谁都不认识了,”他说。

Asked about a worst-case scenario in Iran, he said: “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person. Right, that could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”

当被问及伊朗可能发生的最坏局面时,他表示:“我想最糟糕的情况就是,我们采取这个行动,结果上台的人和前任一样坏。没错,这有可能发生。我们不希望出现这种情况。”

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