2025年6月11日
If the United States and China have succeeded at one thing this year, it is finding each other’s pain points.
若论美中两国今年最成功的一件事,那就是它们抓到了彼此的痛处。
An initial clash over tariffs has grown in recent months into a competition over which country can weaponize its control over the other’s supply chains.
最初围绕关税展开的冲突已在近几个月里演化为一场竞争,看看谁能死死卡住对方的供应链。
China has clamped down on global shipments of rare minerals that are essential to building cars, missiles and a host of electronic products. The United States has in turn paused shipments to China of chemicals, machinery and technology including software and components to produce nuclear power, airplanes and semiconductors. As the conflict has escalated in recent weeks, it has caused Ford Motor and other companies to suspend some of their operations.
中国已采取强制措施限制向全球输出稀土矿产,这些矿产对制造汽车、导弹,以及一系列电子产品至关重要。美国则暂停了向中国出口部分化学品,以及用于生产核能、航天和半导体的机械和技术(包括软件和零部件)。随着贸易冲突在最近几周升级,福特汽车等美国企业已暂停部分业务。
Both countries are now trying to find a way to defuse the situation. Top-ranking officials from the two sides are meeting on Tuesday for a second day of trade negotiations at Lancaster House in London, a historical site that has long been a stage for international treaties. They gathered just days after President Trump held a 90-minute phone call with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader — the first time the two heads of state had spoken directly since Mr. Trump returned to office in January.
两国现在都在努力寻找缓和局势的途径。双方高层官员周二继续在伦敦的兰卡斯特宫举行了第二天的贸易谈判,这座具有历史意义的建筑曾是诸多国际条约的签署地。就在两国官员举行会晤的几天前,美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平通了90分钟的电话,这是自特朗普今年1月上任以来,两国元首的首次直接通话。
The haste with which the negotiations were arranged reflects the severity of the measures that both countries have recently adopted. After Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China to a minimum of 145 percent in April, Beijing clamped down on exports of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to shut down operations by American manufacturers, defense contractors and others.
谈判安排的紧促性反映了双方近期所采取措施的严厉程度。特朗普今年4月将对华关税上调至最低145%后,中国随即实施了关键矿产和磁铁的出口管制,给美国的制造商、国防承包商以及其他企业的正常运行造成了威胁。
U.S. and Chinese officials struck a temporary truce in a meeting in Geneva last month to roll back tariffs and, Trump administration officials believed, to restart a steady flow of rare earths to American companies. But shipments of the minerals, and the magnets made with them, remain infrequent and tightly controlled. In late May, Ford temporarily closed a factory in Chicago that makes its Explorer sport utility vehicle because of a lack of magnets.
上个月,美中官员在日内瓦举行会晤时达成了暂停贸易战的协议,双方降低了关税水平,而且特朗普政府的官员还认为,中国将恢复向美国企业提供稳定的稀土供应。但中国的稀土以及相关物项的出口量仍然很小,并且受到严格管控。由于缺少磁铁,福特于5月底将芝加哥的探险者SUV工厂暂时关闭。
In response, U.S. officials have tried to squeeze China by clamping down on exports to the country, including software for making semiconductors, gases like ethane and butane, and nuclear and aerospace components, people familiar with the bans said. U.S. officials also proposed bans on Chinese students in the United States as part of a coordinated effort to ramp up pressure on China before the call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.
据知情人士透露,作为回应,美国官员试图通过限制对华出口向中国施压,受限产品包括用于半导体制造的软件、乙烷和丁烷等气体,以及核能和航空零部件。在特朗普与习近平通话前,美国官员还提出了限制中国学生来美留学的禁令,作为对华施压协同行动的一部分。
On the call, Mr. Xi warned that the leaders of the United States and China needed to “steer clear of various disturbances or even sabotage,” seemingly a reference to the idea that critics of China in Mr. Trump’s government had driven some of these efforts without his knowledge. But according to one person familiar with the efforts, the actions were done with Mr. Trump’s knowledge or at his direction.
习近平在通话中警告,双方领导人需要“排除各种干扰甚至破坏”,这似乎指的是特朗普政府内部的对华强硬派可能在其不知情的情况下推动了部分措施。但据一名知情人士表示,这些行动都是在特朗普知情或在其授意下采取的。
In addition to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the talks for the United States, and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, the American delegation includes Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who overseas the export controls. On the Chinese side, the negotiations are led by He Lifeng, the vice premier in charge of economic policy.
美国的谈判代表团除了主持谈判的财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔外,还包括负责出口管制的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克。中国方面的谈判由主管经济的国务院副总理何立峰牵头。
Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, and a former National Security Council director for China during the first Trump and Biden administrations, said China had found a pressure point over the United States in rare earths. Beijing used it to get tariffs rolled back, but that lever ultimately backfired, Ms. Tobin said.
地缘政治风险咨询公司Garnaut Global的董事总经理莉莎·托宾曾在特朗普上次执政和拜登执政期间担任国家安全委员会的中国事务主任。她说,中国已在稀土矿产上找到了对美国的施压点。中国政府在促使美国降低关税上使用了这个压迫点,但那个杠杆最终产生了事与愿违的后果,托宾说。
“Beijing squeezed harder, but Washington’s reaction was the exact opposite of what Beijing wanted: a counterstrike through more export controls,” she said.
“北京施加了更大的压力,但华盛顿的反应与北京预期的截然相反,美国使用加强出口管制的方式进行了反击,”她说。
美中贸易谈判正在伦敦具有历史意义的建筑兰开斯特宫举行。
While Mr. Trump has occasionally mused about his interest in striking a broader trade deal with China, U.S. officials seem to have little optimism that the two sides could make progress toward a comprehensive agreement, especially as the supply chain dispute has dragged on.
尽管特朗普偶尔会对与中国达成一项更广泛的贸易协议表示兴趣,但美国官员似乎对双方在达成一项全面协议上取得进展不乐观,尤其是在供应链争端持续进行的情况下。
On CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday, Kevin Hassett, a top White House economic adviser, said Mr. Trump had suggested during the call with Mr. Xi that officials from the countries meet to “clear up” any differences over rare earths and “shake hands on it.”
周日,白宫高级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面向全国》节目中说,特朗普在与习近平通话时建议,两国官员举行会晤,“扫除”在稀土问题上的所有分歧,在这个问题上“握手言和”。
“The point is we want the rare earth, the magnets that are crucial for cellphones and everything else to flow just as they did before the beginning of April,” Mr. Hassett said.
“关键是我们要让稀土像在4月初以前的供应状态,稀土磁铁对手机等产品至关重要,”哈塞特说。
The Chinese government has denied that its rare earth measures are targeted at the United States. A spokesman for the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Saturday that rare-earth-related items had both civilian and military applications, and that the export controls were in line with international practices to safeguard national security and national interests.
中国政府否认稀土出口管制措施是针对美国的。中国商务部发言人上周六说,“稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性,对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。”
Xinhua, China’s official news agency, published an editorial on Monday about the country’s rare earth regulations, noting that “viewing these measures as mere short-term bargaining tools underestimates the strategic depth of China’s policy decisions.” It would be more “constructive” for Western countries instead to “focus on understanding and adapting to China’s new measures,” it continued.
中国官方通讯社新华社周一发表时评,讨论了中国的稀土法规,指出“若将此曲解为短期博弈的‘筹码’,实则是矮化了中国政策的战略高度”。文章继续写道,西方国家应该“将更多精力投入到理解和适应中国的治理新规上来”。
Many factories in the United States, Europe and Japan are quickly running out of rare earth magnets, for which China produces 90 percent of the world’s supply. Beijing has been setting up a system to require licenses to export seven rare earth metals and magnets made from them.
美国、欧洲、日本的许多工厂很快将出现稀土磁铁库存耗尽的问题,中国生产的稀土磁铁占全球供应量的90%。中国政府一直在设立许可证制度,要求输出七种稀土金属及相关物项的实体申请出口许可证。
The Commerce Ministry has started issuing more licenses in the past two weeks. It said on Saturday that it might be willing to speed up the approval of rare earth exports to Europe, while also calling for the European Union to rescind some of its own tariffs and restrictions on trade with China.
过去两周,中国商务部已加大许可证的发放力度。商务部上周六表示,愿意加快向欧洲出口稀土的审批,同时呼吁欧盟取消部分对华贸易关税和限制措施。
A lingering question is how long it might take for China’s rare earth processing centers and magnet factories to ramp up deliveries even if a deal is concluded in London. The mineral processing centers and magnet factories in southern China, where five of the seven restricted rare earths are mined and turned into magnets, were all visibly closed during a visit in April.
一个挥之不去的问题是,即使双方在伦敦达成了协议,中国的稀土加工中心和磁铁工厂需要多长时间才能提高交货量。记者今年4月在实地走访时看到,位于中国南方的矿产加工中心和磁铁工厂处于明显停工状态(七种受出口管制限制的稀土元素中有五种在这里开采并制成磁材)。
But much more activity was apparent on Monday in Baotou, a mining hub in northern China that is the world’s dominant producer of samarium, the now-restricted rare earth that is essential for fighter jets and missiles. A strong smell of ammonia and other chemicals hung in the air outside of the city’s rare earth refineries, a sign that at least some processes were running.
但周一在包头看到的情况则更为活跃,包头是中国北方的矿业中心,是全球主要的钐产地,这种受出口管制限制的稀土元素对战斗机和导弹的制造至关重要。包头市外的稀土精炼厂上空弥漫着浓烈的氨水和其他化学物质的气味,表明至少部分生产工序仍在进行。
The United States and China also continue to spar over other issues. U.S. officials have criticized Beijing for failing to follow through on the terms of a trade deal Mr. Trump signed with Chinese officials during his first term. Last week, the Justice Department brought charges against two Chinese researchers accused of trying to smuggle into the United States a fungus that can cripple crops of wheat and other grains.
美中在其他问题上的争执也仍在继续。美国官员指责中国未能履行特朗普首个任期内签署的贸易协议。上周,美国司法部对两名中国研究人员提起诉讼,指控他们试图将一种可能损害小麦和其他谷类作物的真菌偷偷带入美国。
The Trump administration has also pressed China to do more to police exports to the United States of fentanyl and the precursor chemicals to make it, imposing a 20 percent tariff on all Chinese products in association with fentanyl. A 10 percent “universal” tariff applies to countries broadly, though courts are challenging its legitimacy.
特朗普政府还敦促中国加强对芬太尼及前体化学品出口美国的监管,并对所有与芬太尼相关的中国产品征收20%的关税。尽管法院质疑其合法性,但美国10%的“普遍性”关税仍然适用于多个藕夹。
The Trump administration also continues to focus on negotiations with more than a dozen other countries before a July 9 deadline, when higher tariffs would snap back into effect globally. As part of those negotiations, U.S. officials have pressed Europe, Vietnam, Malaysia and other governments to limit their trade with China.
特朗普政府也继续把注意力放在与其他十几个国家的贸易谈判上,7月9日是谈判的最后期限,如果无果,更高的关税将在全球范围内生效。作为这些谈判的一部分,美国官员已向欧洲、越南、马来西亚以及其他国家的政府施压,要求它们限制与中国的贸易。
Chinese officials have been trying to strengthen their trade ties elsewhere, and appear to be waiting to see the terms the Trump administration negotiates with other governments. While in London, Mr. He is also scheduled to meet with his British counterparts for trade talks.
中国官员一直在努力加强与其他国家的贸易联系,似乎在观望特朗普政府将与他国达成怎样的条款。何立峰在伦敦期间还将与英国同行举行贸易谈判。