President Trump has said his policies will revive auto manufacturing in the United States. But Republican attacks on electric vehicles could do just the opposite, some industry experts say, by surrendering leadership in an emerging technology.

特朗普总统曾表示，他的政策将重振美国的汽车制造业。但一些行业专家表示，共和党对电动汽车的攻击可能会适得其反，让美国放弃在新兴技术领域的领先地位。

China already has a formidable head start in electric vehicles and the batteries and minerals needed to produce them. Companies like BYD, SAIC and Geely produced 70 percent of the electric cars sold globally in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Automakers in the United States produced just 5 percent.

中国在电动汽车以及生产电动汽车所需的电池和矿物方面已经有了巨大的领先优势。根据国际能源机构的数据，在2024年，比亚迪、上汽和吉利等公司生产的电动汽车占全球销量的70%。美国汽车制造商的产品只占5%。

Tesla is the only American company that ranks among the world’s 10 largest electric vehicle makers. General Motors and Ford Motor are minor players. Even Tesla, which made electric cars mainstream and held the No. 1 spot for several years, has been overtaken by BYD and Geely, according to SNE Research, a South Korean research firm.

特斯拉是唯一一家跻身全球十大电动汽车制造商之列的美国公司。通用汽车和福特汽车只是配角。根据韩国研究公司SNE Research的数据，即使是让电动汽车成为主流并连年占据第一位的特斯拉也已被比亚迪和吉利超越。

The more electric vehicles that Chinese companies make, the more difficult it will be for U.S. carmakers to catch up. The Chinese companies can spread the costs of developing new technology across more vehicles. They can buy parts at more favorable prices and reap other benefits of the economies of scale that are critical to success in the auto industry.

中国公司生产的电动汽车越多，美国汽车制造商就越难赶上。中国公司可以将开发新技术的成本分摊到更多的汽车上。他们可以以更优惠的价格购买零部件，并从规模经济中获得其他好处，这对汽车行业的成功至关重要。

One in five new cars sold worldwide is electric, and the percentage is increasing. That is one of the reasons that U.S. automakers have steadily lost ground in Asia, Europe and Latin America in recent years. Many consumers in those countries are instead buying cars from Chinese companies that offer a wide array of affordable electric and hybrid vehicles.

在全球，每售出五辆新车就有一辆是电动汽车，而且这个比例还在上升。这也是近年来美国汽车制造商在亚洲、欧洲和拉丁美洲节节败退的原因之一。这些国家的许多消费者转而从中国公司购买汽车，这些公司提供各种价格适宜的电动汽车和混合动力汽车。

G.M. and Ford now earn a large majority of their profits in the United States. Analysts say their sales in the rest of the world could be reduced to rounding errors in the coming years based on current trends.

通用和福特目前在美国赚取大部分利润。分析师表示，根据目前的趋势，未来几年它们在世界其他地区的销售额可能会减少到可以忽略不计的程度。

“The United States needs to decide if they want an auto industry that can compete globally,” said Greg Dotson, an associate professor at the University of Oregon School of Law and former Democratic chief counsel for the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. “It’s just clear that’s the way the world is moving.”

“美国需要决定，他们是否想要一个能够在全球竞争的汽车工业，”俄勒冈大学法学院副教授、参议院环境与公共工程委员会前民主党首席法律顾问格雷格·多森说。“很明显，这就是世界发展的方向。”

The budget and policy bill passed by the Senate Tuesday would slash Biden-era measures designed to give G.M., Ford and other domestic manufacturers a fighting chance of surviving Chinese competition.

参议院周二通过的预算和政策法案将削减拜登时代的措施，这些措施旨在给通用、福特和其他国内制造商创造一个在中国竞争中生存下来的反击机会。

The bill eliminates tax credits of up to $7,500 for electric vehicle buyers, claws back money for fast chargers and phases out subsidies for companies that set up battery factories and lithium mines.

法案取消了对电动汽车购买者高达7500美元的税收抵免，收回了用于快速充电技术的资金，并逐步取消了对建立电池厂和锂矿的公司的补贴。

Killing those programs would endanger more than $200 billion that auto companies, battery makers, mining companies and others have invested to create a U.S. electric vehicle supply chain not dependent on China, according to data compiled by Jay Turner, a professor of environmental studies at Wellesley College, and his students.

根据韦尔斯利学院环境研究教授杰·特纳和他的学生汇编的数据，取消这些项目将危及汽车公司、电池制造商、矿业公司和其他公司为建立一个不依赖中国的美国电动汽车供应链而投资的逾2000亿美元。

“The government doesn’t seem to be interested in the competitiveness of the auto industry,” said Jody Freeman, director of the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard Law School. “Who’s going to buy our cars?”

“政府似乎对汽车工业的竞争力不感兴趣，”哈佛法学院环境与能源法项目主任乔迪·弗里曼说。“谁会买我们的车？”

Already some manufacturing projects have slowed. AESC, a Chinese-owned battery maker, has paused construction of a factory in South Carolina that was expected to supply BMW and other carmakers. The delay will make it harder for electric vehicle makers to buy batteries made by American workers. Just two Chinese companies, CATL and BYD, account for more than half of global battery production, and China is the main source of battery materials like refined graphite and lithium.

一些制造项目已经放慢了速度。中国电池制造商远景动力已暂停在南卡罗来纳州建设一家工厂，该工厂原计划为宝马和其他汽车制造商供货。这一延迟将使电动汽车制造商更难购买美国工人生产的电池。仅宁德时代和比亚迪两家中国公司就占据了全球电池产量的一半以上，而且中国是精炼石墨和锂等电池材料的主要来源。

Republicans argue that Democratic efforts to subsidize electric vehicles mainly helped affluent car buyers. They also argue the cars are inferior to gasoline models. It’s true that U.S. electric vehicle sales have been modest compared with sales elsewhere. Including Canada and Mexico, they grew 3 percent this year through May, compared with the same period in 2024, according to Rho Motion, a research firm. Growth was 33 percent in China and 27 percent in Europe.

共和党人认为，民主党补贴电动汽车的努力主要帮助了富裕的购车者。他们还认为电动车不如汽油车。的确，与其他地区相比，美国的电动汽车销量并不算高。根据研究公司Rho Motion的数据，与2024年同期相比，包括加拿大和墨西哥在内，今年截至5月的销量与2024年同期相比增长了3%。中国和欧洲的增长率分别为33%和27%。

“No president has taken a greater interest in restoring the dominance of the American auto industry than President Trump,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in an email. “Instead of doling out inefficient subsidies, the Trump administration is deploying a multifaceted approach of rapid deregulation, tariffs and other pro-growth policies.”

“没有哪位总统比特朗普总统更关心恢复美国汽车工业的主导地位，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在电子邮件中表示。“特朗普政府没有发放效率低下的补贴，而是采取了多方面的措施，包括快速放松管制、征收关税和其他促增长政策。”

特斯拉曾连续数年稳居电动汽车销量榜首，如今已被中国汽车制造商比亚迪和吉利超越。

Electric vehicles remain more expensive than gas and hybrid cars in the United States. Despite improvements, the fast charging network remains spotty. China has a much denser charging network, and many electric vehicles cost less than comparable gasoline-powered cars because of intense competition and more efficient manufacturing.

在美国，电动汽车仍然比汽油和混合动力汽车贵。快速充电网络尽管有所改进，但仍然不完善。中国的充电网络要密集得多，而且由于竞争激烈和生产效率更高，许多电动汽车的成本低于同等汽油动力汽车。

But auto executives are nearly unanimous that, even in the United States, electric and hybrid vehicles will eventually displace gasoline-powered vehicles. Sales of cars that run solely on fossil fuels have been declining for a decade, accounting for less than 74 percent of the U.S. market in the first quarter of this year, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the main lobbying group for most major carmakers.

但汽车行业的高管们几乎一致认为，即使在美国，电动和混合动力汽车最终也将取代汽油动力汽车。根据汽车创新联盟的数据，纯化石燃料汽车的销量十年来一直在下降，今年第一季度占美国市场的份额不到74%。该联盟是大多数主要汽车制造商的主要游说团体。

Consumers are increasingly choosing hybrids, which have electric motors and gasoline engines, or pure electric vehicles. In hybrid technology, U.S. automakers are behind the Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda. Many auto experts believe that prices for fully electric vehicles will fall as the technology improves and that, within a few years, they will be cheaper than cars that run on gasoline.

越来越多的消费者选择有电动机和汽油发动机的混合动力车或纯电动汽车。在混合动力技术方面，美国汽车制造商落后于日本汽车制造商丰田和本田。许多汽车专家认为，随着技术的进步，全电动汽车的价格将会下降，在几年内，它们将比汽油车便宜。

Automakers say they remain committed to electric vehicles. “We have some of the best and most successful E.V.s on the market today,” Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, told investors and analysts in May. She cited the Chevrolet Equinox EV, which dealers are offering for lease at less than $400 a month. The Equinox can travel more than 300 miles between charges.

汽车制造商表示，他们仍然致力于电动汽车的发展。“我们拥有当今市场上最好、最成功的一些电动汽车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉今年5月对投资者和分析师说。她以雪佛兰Equinox EV为例，经销商提供的租赁价格不到每月400美元。Equinox每次充电可以行驶约500公里。

But Ms. Barra added, “To protect our brands, we have moderated E.V. production to ensure that we stay aligned with the consumer demand to avoid the heavy discounts our competitors offer.”

但巴拉补充说，“为了保护我们的品牌，我们已经放缓了电动汽车的生产，以确保我们与消费者的需求保持一致，避免我们的竞争对手提供的大幅折扣。”

Ford continues to work on manufacturing complexes in Tennessee and Michigan that will produce electric vehicles and batteries. The company is “deep into the development of our future electric vehicles, which we expect to be profitable, affordable and high-volume,” William C. Ford Jr., the chair of the company, and Jim Farley, the chief executive, said in a report on the company’s sustainability programs this month.

福特公司继续在田纳西州和密歇根州建设生产电动汽车和电池的工厂。福特董事长小威廉·福特和首席执行官吉姆·法利本月在一份关于该公司可持续发展计划的报告中表示，该公司“正在深入开发未来的电动汽车，我们预计这种汽车将实现盈利、价格合理、产量高。”

Mr. Farley and other top executives at Ford regularly visit China, he said at the Aspen Ideas Festival last week. They test drive vehicles and fly some of the most interesting ones back to Detroit for closer study.

法利上周在阿斯彭创意节上表示，他和福特的其他高管频频访问中国。他们试驾汽车，并将一些最有趣的车空运回底特律进行更深入的研究。

He praised Chinese quality, calling it “the most humbling thing I’ve ever seen.”

他称赞中国的质量，称其为“我见过的最让人敬畏的东西”。

Ford has a team of former Tesla engineers in California working on electric vehicles that the company says will be able to compete with Chinese cars on price while being more appealing.

福特在加州有一支由前特斯拉工程师组成的团队，致力于电动汽车的研发。福特表示，这些电动汽车将能够在价格上与中国汽车竞争，同时更具吸引力。

For now, Chinese carmakers are effectively frozen out of the United States by 100 percent tariffs. But BYD and others are already selling cars in many other countries, including Brazil, Britain, Mexico and Thailand, where they will be seen and driven by American tourists and business travelers. In years to come, political leaders in the United States may find it difficult to explain to consumers why they cannot buy cheap, capable electric vehicles that are available in other countries.

目前，由于100%的关税，中国汽车制造商实际上被挡在了美国门外。但比亚迪和其他公司已经在许多其他国家销售汽车，包括巴西、英国、墨西哥和泰国，在那里，前来旅游和出差的美国人将看到并驾驶它们。在未来的几年里，美国的政治领导人可能会发现很难向消费者解释，为什么他们不能购买在其他国家可以买到的价格便宜、性能优秀的电动汽车。

Protectionist policies may also encourage complacency by U.S. automakers. If they don’t need to worry about Chinese rivals and don’t have to meet tougher fuel economy standards, they might delay investing in the latest technology and keep making large pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles that guzzle gasoline.

保护主义政策也可能助长美国汽车制造商的自满情绪。如果它们不需要担心中国的竞争对手，也不需要达到更严格的燃油经济性标准，它们可能会推迟对最新技术的投资，继续生产耗油的大型皮卡和运动型多功能车。

“We should be viewing this as a question of national competitiveness,” said Michael Lenox, a professor of business administration at the University of Virginia. “How long can you keep those cars from the U.S. market through trade restrictions?”

“我们应该把这看作是国家竞争力的问题，”弗吉尼亚大学工商管理教授迈克尔·莱诺克斯说。“你还能用贸易限制把这些汽车挡在美国市场之外多久？”