President-elect Donald J. Trump’s threats to impose damaging tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China may ultimately be an opening wager to try to use the power of the American market to persuade other countries to stem a flow of drugs and migrants across U.S. borders.

候任总统特朗普威胁要对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收破坏性关税，此举最终可能成为他开出的一个赌局，意在利用美国市场的力量，说服其他国家阻止毒品和移民流入美国边境。

But even if the threat to impose vast tariffs on some of the world’s largest economies is a negotiating tactic, it is also a gambit that has immediate real-world consequences.

但是，即使威胁对世界上一些最大的经济体征收巨额关税是一种谈判策略，这同时也将是一个会给现实世界造成直接后果的棋局。

Before Mr. Trump even sets foot in the Oval Office, his threat to put tariffs on America’s three largest trading partners on his first day in office was reverberating around the world, shocking international businesses, rocking diplomatic relationships and calling into question two big trade deals that Mr. Trump negotiated during his first term.

在踏入椭圆形办公室之前，特朗普威胁要在上任第一天对美国三大贸易伙伴征收关税，这在全世界引起了反响，震惊了国际企业，动摇了外交关系，并让人质疑特朗普在第一个任期内谈判达成的两项重大贸易协议。

Mr. Trump’s pronouncement late Monday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on products from China was immediately denounced by business groups, who said such a move would cause economic harm. Foreign officials rushed to reassure the incoming Trump administration that they had been working to stop drugs and migrants from coming into the United States — while warning that they were also ready to turn around and impose their own tariffs on American exports.

特朗普周一晚间宣布，他将对来自加拿大和墨西哥的所有商品征收25%的关税，并对来自中国的产品征收10%的关税。这一声明立即遭到商业团体的谴责，他们表示，此举将造成经济损害。外国官员急忙向即将上任的特朗普政府保证，他们一直在努力阻止毒品和移民进入美国，同时警告称，他们也随时准备转而对美国的出口产品征收关税。

Mr. Trump’s threats may have been intended to silence investors and economists who have recently questioned whether the president-elect would go through with imposing the big levies he promised while campaigning. In the run-up to the election, Mr. Trump pledged to put a 60 percent tariff on goods from China and a tax of at least 10 percent on all other imports. Such a move could ignite a global trade war, slowing economies around the world.

特朗普的威胁可能是为了让投资者和经济学家闭嘴，他们最近质疑候任总统是否会实施他在竞选期间承诺的高额关税。在大选前夕，特朗普承诺对来自中国的商品征收60%的关税，对所有其他进口商品征收至少10%的关税。此举可能引发全球贸易战，减缓全球经济增长。

Whether Mr. Trump’s threats ultimately show his prowess as a deal-maker or simply sow chaos, they are a reminder that the president-elect is eager to upend global relationships to try to secure points for the United States. That includes a willingness to potentially topple the trade pacts that he himself worked to put in place with Mexico, Canada and China during his first term after he used bruising tariffs to force them into making concessions.

无论特朗普的威胁最终显示了他作为交易撮合者的能力，抑或只在制造混乱，这些威胁都在提醒人们：候任总统急于颠覆全球关系，试图为美国争取利益。这包括有可能推翻他在第一个任期内努力与墨西哥、加拿大和中国达成的贸易协定，此前他用惩罚性关税迫使这些国家做出让步。

One of those deals was the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That trade pact replaced and updated the previous deal, the 30-year old North American Free Trade Agreement, which Mr. Trump called the “worst trade deal ever made.”

其中一项协定是《美国—墨西哥—加拿大协定》。该贸易协定取代并更新了之前已有30年历史的《北美自由贸易协定》，特朗普称后者是“有史以来最糟糕的贸易协议”。

Under the U.S.M.C.A., goods that meet certain requirements can move around the continent without being subject to tariffs. A 25 percent tariff on all Mexican and Canadian products would be a clear violation of that agreement, and could call into question the future of the deal itself.

根据《美墨加协定》，符合特定要求的货物可以在美国大陆各地流通而不征收关税。对所有墨西哥和加拿大产品征收25%的关税将明显违反该协议，并可能让人质疑该协议本身的未来。

Wendy Cutler, a vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former U.S. trade negotiator, said the threats put Mexico and Canada “in a tough spot” given their dependence on the U.S. market. The pressure on them to take measures to placate the president-elect would be strong, she said.

亚洲协会政策研究所副所长、前美国贸易谈判代表温迪·卡特勒表示，鉴于墨西哥和加拿大对美国市场的依赖，这些威胁使它们“处境艰难”。她说，两国将面临巨大压力，必须采取措施安抚候任总统。

“Like Trump’s first term, some of these tariff threats may never lead to the actual imposition of tariffs,” she said. “Nevertheless, our trading partners need to be prepared for additional threats, and many are developing strategies as we speak for navigating around them.”

“就像特朗普的第一任期一样，其中一些关税威胁可能永远不会导致实际征收关税，”她说。“然而，我们的贸易伙伴需要为更多的威胁做好准备，就在我们发言之际，许多贸易伙伴正在制定绕开这些威胁的策略。”

The threats offered a preview of what could be another four years of trade tumult, mirroring Mr. Trump’s first term when he scrambled the country’s economic and diplomatic relationships. The president-elect has long viewed tariffs as a powerful source of leverage that, when coupled with his unpredictable style, encourages other countries to swiftly make concessions.

这些威胁预示着可能又会出现四年的贸易动荡，这与特朗普在第一个任期内搅乱国家经济和外交关系的情形如出一辙。长期以来，候任总统一直将关税视为一种强大的筹码——有了关税，再加上他那不可预测的风格，会促使其他国家迅速做出让步。

After taking office in 2017, Mr. Trump hit a slew of countries with tariffs on steel and aluminum. He wielded those taxes as leverage against Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA. He also put significant tariffs on China in 2018, then continued to ratchet them up over the next 18 months until his administration signed a trade deal with Beijing in January 2020.

2017年上任后，特朗普对一系列国家征收钢铝关税。他把这些税收作为对加拿大和墨西哥重新谈判《北美自由贸易协定》的筹码。他还在2018年对中国征收了高额关税，然后在接下来的18个月里继续提高关税，直到2020年1月与北京签署了一项贸易协议。

This time, Mr. Trump said he would hit China for failing to prevent chemicals used in fentanyl from coming into the United States. He said he would impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada to force those countries to stem the flow of fentanyl and end illegal migrant crossings into the United States.

这一次，特朗普说，他会因为中国未能阻止芬太尼中使用的化学物质进入美国而打击中国。他说，他将对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税，迫使这些国家阻止芬太尼的流动，并结束非法移民进入美国。

In a public letter on Tuesday, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said her country had developed a comprehensive policy that had led to far fewer encounters at the U.S. border and said tariff threats would not solve the problem.

在周二的一封公开信中，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆表示，她的国家已经制定了一项全面的政策，大大减少了美墨边境的人员越境情况，并表示关税威胁无法解决问题。

The number of illegal border crossings from Mexico has fallen significantly in 2024, in part because of a Mexican crackdown on migrants crossing through their country, as well as new U.S. restrictions on asylum at the southern border.

来自墨西哥的非法越境人数在2024年大幅下降，部分原因是墨西哥对越境移民的打击，以及美国对南部边境庇护的新限制。

Ms. Sheinbaum also threatened to answer Mr. Trump’s tariffs with levies on American products, even if that harmed automakers and other businesses that trade goods along both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border.

辛鲍姆还威胁要对美国产品征收关税，以回应特朗普的关税，即使这会损害在美墨边境两边进行商品贸易的汽车制造商和其他企业。

“For every tariff, there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises,” she said.

她说：“对于每一项关税，都将有相应的回应，直到危及我们的共同企业。”

Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, said Tuesday that he would hold an emergency meeting on Mr. Trump’s tariff proposal with all of Canada’s provincial and territorial leaders. He also responded to accusations in the House of Commons that he was not acting forcefully enough by saying he was working to defuse the threats.

加拿大总理特鲁多周二表示，他将与加拿大所有省和地区领导人就特朗普的关税提案召开紧急会议。他还回应了下议院对他行动不够强硬的指责，称他正在努力化解威胁。

“Rather than panicking, we’re engaging in constructive ways to protect Canadian jobs like we have before,” Mr. Trudeau said. “The idea of going to war with the United States isn’t what anyone wants.”

“我们没有惊慌失措，而是像以前一样，以建设性的方式保护加拿大的就业，”特鲁多说。“与美国开战的想法不是任何人想要的。”

Speaking in Ottawa, Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative opposition leader, indicated that he was open to removing Mexico from the free trade agreement.

在渥太华发表讲话时，反对党保守党领袖博励治(Pierre Poilievre)表示，他愿意考虑将墨西哥从自由贸易协定中剔除。

Asked by reporters if he would exclude Mexico from any talks to prevent Mr. Trump’s proposed tariffs, Mr. Poilievre said he would put Canada first and “do what is necessary to preserve that relationship above all others.”

在被记者问及他是否会将墨西哥排除在任何谈判之外以阻止特朗普提议的关税时，博励治表示，他将把加拿大放在首位，并且“首先要采取一切必要措施来维护这一关系”。

Imposing 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico could cause significant damage to many industries that organized themselves around an integrated North American market. Since NAFTA was signed more than three decades ago, makers of cars, textiles, snack foods and other products have set up supply chains that snake between the countries, as they move from raw materials to their final consumers.

对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税可能会对围绕北美一体化市场组织起来的许多行业造成重大损害。自30多年前签署北美自由贸易协定以来，汽车、纺织品、休闲食品和其他产品的制造商已经建立了蜿蜒与三国之间的供应链，从原材料来到最终消费者。

Kim Glas, the chief executive of the National Council of Textile Organizations, which represents American textile makers, said that her industry welcomed an increase on tariffs on Chinese textiles and apparel, but that imposing tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could undermine American manufacturing.

代表美国纺织品制造商的全国纺织组织委员会首席执行官金·格拉斯表示，她所在的行业欢迎对中国纺织品和服装加征关税，但对墨西哥和加拿大商品加征关税可能会损害美国制造业。

Factories in the United States, Mexico and Canada are linked together in a co-production chain under the current trade agreement, she said. The U.S. textile industry exports 53 percent of its products to factories in Mexico and Canada, where they are turned into finished products that then come back into the United States.

她说，根据目前的贸易协定，美国、墨西哥和加拿大的工厂组成了一个联合生产链。美国纺织业将53%的产品出口到墨西哥和加拿大的工厂，在那里它们被加工成成品，然后再运回美国。

“This is a vital supply chain that sustains U.S. textile manufacturers, our regional trade partners and their workforces,” she said, adding that the arrangement “competes directly with China and Asia.”

她说：“这是一条至关重要的供应链，维系着美国纺织品制造商、我们的地区贸易伙伴及其劳动力的生计。”她还说，这种安排“直接与中国和亚洲竞争”。

David McCall, the president of the United Steelworkers, a trade union that represents metal makers and other industries in both Canada and the United States, said in a statement that tariffs on Canada would “dramatically harm workers in both our countries,” because the economies are so integrated.

美国钢铁工人联合会代表着加拿大和美国金属制造商和其他行业，其主席戴维·麦考尔在声明中表示，对加拿大征收关税将“极大地伤害我们两国的工人”，因为两国的经济高度一体化。

“There is no question that we must address the holes in our global trading system, but Canada is not the problem,” he said.

他说：“毫无疑问，我们必须解决全球贸易体系中的漏洞，但问题不在加拿大。”

Trade lawyers said Mr. Trump would have the legal authority to sign an executive order on his first day in office to issue the tariffs, though he might choose to delay the date at which the tariffs go into effect in order to force countries to the negotiating table. Mr. Trump took that approach when he first imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

贸易律师表示，特朗普拥有法律权力，在上任第一天就可以签署行政命令来征收关税，不过他可能会选择推迟关税生效的日期，迫使各国坐到谈判桌前。特朗普在首次对中国商品征收关税时就采取了这种做法。

U.S. markets shrugged off the threats on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising to offset losses in the morning.

周二，美国市场没有理会这些威胁，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，抵消了早盘的损失。

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Tuesday that they still expected it was more likely that Mexico and Canada would avoid across-the-board tariffs. If the tariffs were imposed, however, they estimated they would raise the U.S. effective tariff rate by 8.6 percentage points and push up a core inflation index closely watched by central bankers by 0.9 percent.

高盛分析师周二在一份报告中表示，他们仍预计墨西哥和加拿大更有可能避免全面的关税。然而，他们估计，如果征收关税，将使美国的实际关税税率提高8.6个百分点，并将央行密切关注的核心通胀指数推高0.9%。