China has rare earth metals. The United States and Brazil have soybeans.

中国有稀土金属。美国和巴西有大豆。

For all the chokeholds China maintains on global supply chains, it is overwhelmingly dependent on soybeans from other parts of the world. China imports three-fifths of all the soybeans traded on international markets. Now with China and the United States locked in a tense standoff over tariffs, soybeans have emerged as a central dispute between the trading partners.

尽管中国在全球供应链中占有诸多重要位置，但它对来自世界其他地区的大豆依赖程度极高。中国进口的大豆占国际市场贸易总量的五分之三。现在，随着中国和美国在关税问题上陷入紧张的对峙，大豆已成为这两个贸易伙伴之间的核心争端。

China has been boycotting purchases of U.S. soybeans since late May to show displeasure with President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from China. The pain is being felt in Midwest states, especially Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana. For the first time in many years, American farmers are preparing to harvest their crop this fall with no purchase orders from China.

自5月下旬以来，中国一直抵制购买美国大豆，以表达对特朗普总统对中国进口产品征收关税的不满。中西部各州感受到了痛苦，尤其是伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州。美国农民正面临多年未有的情况——今年秋收时，中国尚未下达任何采购订单。

“The further into the autumn we get without reaching an agreement with China on soybeans, the worse the impacts will be on U.S. soybean farmers,” the American Soybean Association warned in a letter to Mr. Trump on Aug. 19.

8月19日，美国大豆协会致信特朗普警告称，“入秋后如果我们还不能与中国就大豆问题达成协议，对美国大豆种植者的影响将更加严重。”

But China also faces risks in the standoff. Brazil, which will harvest its crop early next year, is the only other country with enough soybeans to meet Chinese demand and enough trains and port capacity to move those soybeans to China.

但中国在这场对峙中也面临风险。巴西将于明年年初收获大豆，它是唯一一个产量能满足中国需求，并有足够的火车和港口运力将这些大豆运往中国的国家。

“I think they could probably go without American soybeans this autumn, but if Brazil has some drought or flood that affects their crops next year, it would put China in a difficult position,” said Darin Friedrichs, the managing director of Sitonia Consulting, a research firm specializing in Chinese agriculture.

专门研究中国农业的研究公司西托尼亚咨询的董事总经理达林·弗里德里希斯说，“我认为今年秋天他们可能不会购入美国大豆，但如果明年巴西发生干旱或洪水影响作物，那将使中国陷入困境。”

哈尔滨附近某村庄工厂的大豆压榨设备。工厂内的双城区地图，双城是哈尔滨市管辖的农村区域。

In China, a record soybean crop is expected this year and farmers like Zhou Ping are thriving. With demand strong, prices are rising, and this summer brought an almost perfect balance of sunshine and rain.

在中国，预计今年大豆的收成将创历史新高，像周平（音）这样的农民日子过得很好。由于需求强劲，价格也在上涨，今年夏天，阳光和雨水几乎达到了完美的平衡。

“This year’s is the best soybean crop I’ve seen in years,” he said, standing at the edge of his dark green field of thigh-high plants.

“今年的豆长得最好，”他站在过膝高的深绿色大豆田边说。

Yet even with a likely harvest of 21 million tons this year, China will need to import another 100 to 105 million tons.

然而，即使今年国内产量可能达到2100万吨，中国还需要再进口1亿至1.05亿吨大豆。

China’s immense need for imported soybeans — enough each year to fill the Superdome in New Orleans more than 30 times — reflects a shift toward protein-rich diets as living standards have soared over the past 30 years. China now raises vast numbers of pigs and chickens.

中国对进口大豆的需求极为巨大，每年的进口量足以填满新奥尔良的超级巨蛋体育场超过30次。如此大的需求也反映出过去30年，随着生活水平的提高，中国向高蛋白质结构饮食的转变。中国现在饲养了大量的猪和鸡。

China imports genetically modified soybeans to feed these animals. Genetic modifications are almost completely banned in China, and the soybeans grown in China are mainly used for human consumption, notably in tofu and soy milk.

中国进口转基因大豆用于饲喂这些动物。中国几乎完全禁止转基因大豆，本土种植的大豆主要用于人类食用，尤其是豆腐和豆浆。

Before Mr. Trump’s first trade war with Beijing in 2018, China bought a quarter to a third of the American crop. China has since tried to develop alternatives. But only Brazil has really managed to increase supplies significantly to the Chinese market.

在2018年特朗普首次对华发动贸易战之前，中国采购了美国大豆总产量的四分之一至三分之一。此后，中国一直试图开发替代来源。但只有巴西真正成功地大幅增加了对中国市场的供应。

China bought 71 percent of its soybean imports last year from Brazil, when near-perfect weather led to a record crop.

去年，中国71%的大豆进口来自巴西，当时该国近乎完美的天气带来了创纪录的收成。

The United States supplied 21 percent of China’s total imported soybeans last year. The crop is nonetheless the largest remaining export from the United States to China. Beijing has systematically replaced imports of farm equipment and other advanced manufactured goods from the United States through a program, Made in China 2025, intended to boost the country’s self-reliance.

去年，美国大豆占中国大豆进口总量的21%。尽管如此，这种作物仍然是美国对中国最大的出口产品。北京通过旨在自力更生的《中国制造2025》计划系统地取代了从美国进口的农业设备和其他先进制成品。

顾客在双城区一个乡村的大豆压榨厂购买大豆食用油。中国种植的大豆主要用于人类食用，进口的转基因大豆则用于动物饲料。

China has made a concerted effort to grow more soybeans, deploying extensive government subsidies. Despite this year’s successful harvest, the results of that effort have been mixed.

中国通过统一行动来种植更多大豆，并且部署了大量的政府补贴。尽管今年获得了丰收，但这一努力成效不一。

The country’s main growers are in Heilongjiang Province, in northeastern China next to Russia’s Siberia. But they have been slow to increase output.

中国的主要大豆产区在黑龙江，位于中国东北部，毗邻俄罗斯的西伯利亚。但这里在增加产量方面进展缓慢。

The government pays farmers in much of Heilongjiang a subsidy equivalent to about $17 an acre to grow corn and about $300 to grow soybeans. Yet in villages near Harbin, the provincial capital, and near Heihe, on the Amur River border with Russia, most fields are still covered with corn.

在黑龙江的大部分地区，政府给农民的补贴是种植玉米每亩20元左右，种植大豆每亩350元左右。然而，在省会哈尔滨附近的村庄，以及与俄罗斯接壤的黑龙江边的黑河市附近，大多数田地仍然长满了玉米。

Farmers who planted soy said their neighbors were reluctant to switch crops.

种植大豆的农民说，他们的邻居不愿意更换作物。

The rule of thumb in Heilongjiang is that corn sells for half as much per ton as soybeans. But an acre of farmland planted with corn typically produces three times as much food. So farmers can earn more money from corn than from soybeans, even when the subsidies are factored in.

根据黑龙江的经验，每吨玉米的价格通常是大豆的一半。但一亩玉米田的产量通常是大豆田的三倍。因此，即使把补贴考虑在内，种植玉米的农民收入仍高于种植大豆的农民。

Heilongjiang, like most of rural China, has a severe labor shortage, as young people leave for cities. They earn soaring wages in the country’s factories, which are also short of labor but pay much more than farming.

与中国大部分农村地区一样，黑龙江也面临着严重的劳动力短缺问题。年轻人纷纷涌入城市，他们在这个国家的工厂里获得高薪，这些同样缺工的工厂支付的工资远高于农业收入。

“Corn is easy to grow because it’s less hassle — soybeans require more care and maintenance, and if they’re not managed properly, they’ll become weed-ridden,” said Jia Yinghai, a farmer in Dawusili, a village near Heihe.

黑河附近大乌斯力村的农民贾英海（音）说：“玉米容易种，因为啥比较省心。大豆涉及到后期管理这块，如果说管理不好的话，会草荒。”

哈尔滨双城区某农庄外的玉米地。哈尔滨附近一个村庄里，工人正往卡车上装玉米。

During the first Trump administration, when Beijing briefly halted purchases of American soybeans, many people thought Russia could help China reduce its dependency on American imports.

特朗普首个任期内，北京曾短暂停止购买美国大豆，许多人认为俄罗斯可以帮助中国减少对美国进口的依赖。

Some Chinese businesses already operate soybean farms across the Amur River in Siberia. But their efforts to expand have run into trouble.

一些中国企业已经在黑龙江对岸的西伯利亚经营大豆农场。但它们的扩张努力遇到了麻烦。

For one, the Chinese rail line that runs south from the Russian border at Heihe charges higher freight rates than China’s national system, said Zhou Rui, the general manager of the Heihe Beifeng Yuandong Agricultural Development Company, a Heihe enterprise with soybean farms in Russia. The company has soybean crushing mills in Heihe that squeeze out the soybean oil, used in cooking, and leave behind soybean meal, used as animal feed.

黑河北丰远东农业开发有限公司的总经理周锐说，首先，从俄罗斯边境往南的黑河铁路收取的运费高于中国的国家铁路系统。黑河北丰远东农业开发有限公司是一家在俄罗斯拥有大豆农场的黑河企业。该公司在黑河拥有大豆压榨厂，压榨用于烹饪的大豆油，并留下副产品豆粕用作动物饲料。

Trucks send Heihe Beifeng’s high-value soybean oil south. But the company has found it hard to persuade big chicken- and pig-rearing companies 1,500 miles away in central China to buy its soybean meal, said Mr. Zhou, who is not related to the farmer with the same family name.

卡车将黑河北丰的高价值大豆油运往南方。但周锐说，公司难以说服约2400公里外中国中部的大型养鸡和养猪公司购买其豆粕。周锐与农民周平没有亲戚关系。

To make matters worse, Russia changed its soybean policies after invading Ukraine in 2022. Russia introduced a tax of roughly 20 percent on exports of uncrushed soybeans. The tax discouraged farmers from sending their crops to China.

更糟糕的是，俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰后改变了其大豆政策，对未压榨的大豆出口征收大约20%的税。这项税收使农民不愿把作物出口到中国。

Russia’s rail system is also providing free shipment of soybean meal to livestock farms in western Russia, which supply meat to its soldiers at the front lines. That is another incentive for soybeans grown in Russia’s Siberia to be moved west, not south into China.

俄罗斯的铁路系统还向俄罗斯西部的畜牧场提供免费的豆粕运输服务，这些牧场为前线的士兵提供肉类。这同样促使俄罗斯西伯利亚种植的大豆向西转移、而不是向南转到中国。

Last year, Russia’s soybean exports to China fell by half, and made up only 0.6 percent of China’s total soybean imports.

去年，俄罗斯对中国的大豆出口减少了一半，仅占中国大豆进口总量的0.6%。

Overall, China sells three to four times more in goods to the United States than it buys, an imbalance that President Trump is trying to address. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders,” he wrote on social media last month.

总体而言，中国向美国出口的商品是其进口的三到四倍，这种失衡正是特朗普总统试图解决的问题。他上个月在社交媒体上写道：“我希望中国的大豆订单能迅速增加三倍。”

China may yet have another trump card as it jockeys with the United States over soybeans, however: strategic stockpiles of soybeans to use during war, agricultural disaster or other crises. While the precise size of the stockpiles is a state secret, the U.S. government recently estimated that Beijing may hold 45 million tons of soybeans, or two years’ worth of imports from the United States.

然而，在与美国就大豆问题进行博弈的过程中，中国可能还有另一张王牌：用于战争、农业灾害或其他危机的战略大豆储备。虽然储备确切规模是国家机密，但美国政府最近估计，北京可能持有4500万吨大豆，相当于从美国进口的两年总量。

Less clear, however, is how much of that emergency reserve China is willing to tap for a trade war.

然而，中国愿意动用多少应急储备来打贸易战，目前尚不明确。

黑河渔民在与俄罗斯接壤的黑龙江畔作业。每年10月河面结冰前，俄罗斯的大豆通过船运跨越黑龙江运抵黑河。