2025年10月21日
Not long after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China became the factory floor of the United States. But free trade with China cost America jobs. Economists later termed that period the “China Shock,” lamenting how the United States had critically underestimated the scale of China’s manufacturing prowess.
2001年加入世界贸易组织后不久,中国便成为了美国的工厂。但与中国的自由贸易却让美国流失了大量就业岗位。经济学家后来将这一时期称为“中国冲击”,痛惜美国严重低估了中国制造业的实力规模。
Now President Trump wants to bring those jobs back to America. Through a series of whiplash tariffs, he has tried to shut off the U.S. market to China. But instead of slowing down, China is selling more goods than ever, this time to the rest of the world.
如今,特朗普总统希望将这些工作岗位带回美国。他通过一系列突然的关税政策,试图切断中国进入美国市场的渠道。但中国非但没有放缓步伐,反而实现了商品出口量的历史新高——只不过这一次,出口目的地转向了全球其他地区。
Is China unleashing a new shock?
中国正在引发新的“冲击”吗?
I recently traveled to China and across Southeast Asia to try to answer this question. In Indonesia, an economist told me that by lowering its trade barrier with China, the country had seen a flood of cheap goods that killed off entire industries, like the one for garments. In Malaysia, a fledgling but dynamic solar panel industry was destroyed. In other countries, like Vietnam, trade with China has been, so far, a boon.
为解答这个问题,我近期走访了中国及东南亚多国。在印度尼西亚,一位经济学家告诉我,该国降低对华贸易壁垒后,大量廉价中国商品涌入,导致服装等产业整个被摧毁;在马来西亚,新兴但充满活力的太阳能电池板产业也遭遇了灭顶之灾。而在越南等其他国家,对华贸易迄今为止带来了显著益处。
China isn’t forcing countries to buy its stuff. Beijing, like Washington before it, is making the pitch that open trade is good for peace. Its two dozen free trade agreements, mostly with developing countries that have struggled to attract American investment, come with money that can create local jobs and build critical infrastructure. But the trade is usually not even: In most cases, China sells more than it imports. Some economies have become entirely dependent on China. As that Indonesian economist put it to me: “The contribution is very, very large to our economy.”
中国并未强迫其他国家购买其商品。与此前的华盛顿一样,北京主张开放贸易有助于维护和平。中国签署了20多项自由贸易协定,合作伙伴多为难以吸引美国投资的发展中国家,协议还附带资金支持,用于创造当地就业岗位和建设关键基础设施。但这种贸易关系通常并不对等:在大多数情况下,中国的出口额远超进口额。部分经济体已完全依赖中国。正如那位印度尼西亚经济学家所说:“这对我们的经济贡献非常、非常巨大。”
Throughout, I wanted to know: Who is buying all this stuff?
在此过程中,我一直想知道:是谁在购买这么多中国商品?
On my most recent reporting trip to China, I took a train to the city of Yiwu, known for being the wholesale capital world. In one of Yiwu’s six vast international trade centers, I talked to buyers and sellers. One of them was Rhoda Nghelembi, an entrepreneur from Tanzania. She shared her story with me. It has helped to fill in the other side of the equation.
在最近一次中国采访之行中,我乘火车前往有世界批发之都之称的义乌。在义乌六大国际商贸城之一,我与众多采购商和供应商进行了交流。其中一位是来自坦桑尼亚的企业家罗达·恩格尔姆比。她分享的故事为我揭开了问题的另一面。
Ms. Nghelembi, 26, started several years ago selling home appliances and dinnerware in Dar es Salaam. She relied on middlemen to source her wares. But when she learned they were buying from China, she decided to go to China herself. I met her last week, on her seventh trip.
26岁的恩格尔姆比几年前在达累斯萨拉姆开始经营家用电器和餐具生意,她原本依赖中间商采购商品。但当得知中间商的货源来自中国后,她决定亲自前往那里。上周我见到她时,这已经是她的第七次中国之行。
Her business, Msukuma, sells handbags, clothes and jewelry to customers in Tanzania and other African countries. Our conversation has been edited for clarity and brevity.
她的公司姆苏库马向坦桑尼亚及其他非洲国家的客户销售手袋、服装和珠宝。以下是我们的对话内容,为求清晰和简洁而进行了编辑:
恩格尔姆比最初在达累斯萨拉姆销售家电和餐具。当她发现供应商从中国采购后,便开始直接从中国进货。
When did you start coming to China and why?
你从什么时候开始来中国?为什么会决定来这里?
2023. You know China is the center of everything.
2023年。要知道中国是一切的中心。
What led you to come here?
是什么促使你来中国?
Before, I was buying from my country, and I was surprised that they were buying from China. Then my agent told me, “You should go, go and you will see many, many opportunities.”
以前我在自己国家进货,后来惊讶地发现他们的货其实都来自中国。之后我的代理商建议我:“你应该自己去看看,那里有很多很多机会。”
So you were ordering from somebody in Tanzania who was ordering from China, and then you decided to come here yourself. Were you surprised when you first arrived?
也就是说,你之前通过坦桑尼亚的中间商进货,而那些中间商又从中国采购,后来你决定亲自来中国。第一次来的时候有没有感到惊讶?
I was really surprised because I saw the percent that the middleman was adding was huge. It is really a lot of money.
我非常惊讶,因为我发现中间商加价的比例高得惊人,那可是一大笔钱。
So now do you find you can make more money?
那现在你是不是能赚更多钱了?
Now, besides my own business, I also take orders from people back in my country. So I’m also like a middleman. I buy, I sell, I also do TikTok videos. People from TikTok, not just in my country, but also from Kenya, Uganda, Congo, they call me. “We need this and this,” so I will buy and send it to them.
是的。除了自己的生意,我现在还代国内的人下单,相当于也成了中间商。我自己采购、销售,还会拍TikTok视频。不仅是我们国家,肯尼亚、乌干达、刚果等国的TikTok用户都会联系我,说“我们需要这个、那个”,我就会采购好,然后寄给他们。
Can you give me a sense of how successful your business is now?
能具体说说你现在的生意做得有多成功吗?
It’s a good business. I can afford anything I want because I’m doing business, I’m gaining every day. Anything that I want, I think I can afford for now.
生意很不错。因为我做生意,我现在想买什么都买得起,每天都有盈利。现在我想要的东西基本都能负担得起。
And how does China fit into your future?
中国在你未来的规划中扮演着怎样的角色?
I see my future growing so big, and being rich because of China, because China has so many opportunities.
我觉得我的未来会因为中国变得广阔而富有,因为中国有很多很多机会。
What is the biggest opportunity you found once you got here?
来中国之后,你发现的最大机会是什么?
At first when I came I was selling home appliances and plates. But when I came, I saw jewelry, I saw handbags, I saw women’s clothes. So I started changing my business.
刚来的时候,我做的是家用电器和餐具生意。但到了这里之后,我看到了珠宝、手袋和女装,所以就转型做了现在的业务。
You must be aware of the U.S.-China trade war. Do you see any differences since then in terms of opportunities for you?
你肯定知道美中贸易战。你觉得从那以后,对你而言机遇有什么变化吗?
Yeah, I see many, many differences. This market, every day when you come you see different things. That’s how it is in China. Africa is so different, even the quality of things is quite different. Many African people, they like cheap things. And American people like quality things. Things are very cheap.
是的,我看到很多很多变化!义乌这个市场每天都有新东西。中国就是这样。非洲就太不一样了,就连商品质量也有很大差别。很多非洲人喜欢便宜的东西,而美国人更看重质量。这里的商品价格非常便宜。