As the United States and China barreled headfirst into full-fledged trade war this week, one of Beijing’s most fashionable shopping districts was still bustling. People browsed a high-end perfumery, lounged outside coffee shops and waited in a wraparound line for a trendy bakery.

本周，在美国和中国的贸易战全面爆发之时，北京最时尚的购物区之一仍然熙熙攘攘。人们浏览着高档香水，在咖啡店外闲逛，在网红面包店外排起长队。

That is just the type of scene the Chinese government wants to see as it steels for what could be a total breakdown of trade with the United States. As President Trump maintains tariffs of at least 125 percent on its goods, China has vowed not to back down. Besides hitting back with its own tariffs — 84 percent on all imports from the United States — the government has promised to make up for the blow to exports, on which China’s economy currently relies, by getting its people to spend more.

这正是中国政府希望看到的情景，因为它正在为中美贸易可能全面破裂做准备。由于特朗普总统对中国商品维持至少125%的关税，中国发誓不会让步。除了用自己的关税进行回击——对所有从美国进口的商品征收84%的关税——中国政府还承诺，将通过让人民增加消费来弥补对出口的打击，而出口是中国经济目前所依赖的。

“In the face of high tariffs continuing to shrink the space for trade with the United States,” read a commentary on Sunday in People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece, China will “make consumption the main driving force and ballast stone of economic growth, and deliver on the advantages of a super-large market.”

中国共产党机关报《人民日报》周日发表评论称，“面对高关税持续压缩对美贸易空间，我们更要把扩大内需作为长期战略，努力把消费打造成经济增长的主动力和压舱石，发挥超大规模市场优势。”

But that is easier said than done.

但是说来容易做来难。

Domestic consumption in China was anemic even before the tariffs. The post-pandemic economic recovery has been lackluster, factories have shuttered and youth unemployment is high. Home prices, the bedrock of many middle-class Chinese families’ wealth, have plummeted.

即使在征收关税之前，中国的国内消费也很疲软。疫情后的经济复苏乏力，工厂纷纷关闭，青年失业率居高不下。作为许多中国中产阶级家庭财富基石的房产价格暴跌。

Even the busy scene at the Beijing shopping area, Taikoo Li, was deceptive. When Chinese people do go out, they increasingly tend to look for bargains or simply browse.

就连北京购物区太古里的热闹景象也具有欺骗性。中国人外出时越来越倾向于寻找便宜货或只是随便逛逛。

Qu Nan, the 38-year-old founder of a construction company, was sitting at a Starbucks in Taikoo Li. But he wasn’t drinking anything, just meeting a friend.

38岁的曲楠是一家建筑公司的创始人，他坐在太古里的一家星巴克里，但什么东西都没喝，只是在那里见朋友。

周四，北京一家购物中心。在与美国的贸易紧张局势升级之前，有迹象表明中国购物者开始增加支出。

Before the pandemic, Mr. Qu would casually spend $25 to $40 for a meal when eating out. But his business had fallen by 20 percent since then, and now he was willing to spend that much only for high-quality food.

疫情前，瞿南外出就餐时一顿饭随便就花掉大约两三百元。但从疫情以后，他的业务减少了20%，现在只有高质量的餐食才能让他付出那样的价钱。

“For that price, I might as well cook for myself,” he said. “People’s spending habits have changed. Everyone is making targeted, cost-effective choices.”

“这个价格我还不如自己做，”他说。“现在的人消费观也改变了，你不用去说，大家也会去有一个针对性、性能性价比的选择。”

The trade war could make people even warier of spending, just as it becomes a higher priority for the government. If exports slow dramatically, it could hurt everyone from garment makers in southern China to kitchen appliance makers on the eastern seaboard. That, in turn, could lead to lower wages or higher unemployment.

贸易战可能会让人们对消费更加谨慎，而消费恰恰是政府更优先考虑的问题。如果出口大幅放缓，从中国南方的服装制造商到东部沿海的厨房电器制造商，每个人都可能受到伤害。反过来，这可能会导致工资下降或失业率上升。

“The economy is all integrated, and producers are also consumers. It’s all the same people,” said Zhou Mi, a researcher at an institute affiliated with China’s Ministry of Commerce.

“经济是一体的，生产者和消费者都是统一的，都是这些人，”中国商务部下属一家研究所的研究员周密说。

Before the trade tensions began escalating, there had been signs that Chinese people were starting to spend more.

在贸易紧张局势开始升级之前，已经有迹象显示中国人开始增加消费。

Government incentives to trade in old cars or electronics for new ones lifted sales. A quarterly survey of Chinese consumers released by Deutsche Bank in March found that 54 percent of respondents felt better off financially than a year before, and that 52 percent — the most in a year — were willing to increase their spending.

以旧换新的政府激励措施刺激了汽车或电子产品的销售。德意志银行3月份发布的一份中国消费者季度调查显示，54%的受访者认为自己的财务状况比一年前好，52%的人愿意增加支出，这是一年来最多的。

During a long holiday weekend for China’s Tomb Sweeping Festival this month, travelers crowded into tourist sites and restaurants. They made 126 million domestic trips and spent about $8 billion, according to official data. Both figures represented increases of more than 6 percent from the previous year, and they were above prepandemic levels.

在本月中国清明节长假期间，游客涌入旅游景点和餐馆。官方数据显示，国内旅行者达到1.26亿人次，消费了575.5亿元。这两个数字都比前一年增加了6%以上，超过疫情之前的水平。

But then Mr. Trump hit China with his staggering new tariffs. China responded with matching tariffs of its own.

但随后，特朗普向中国征收了惊人的新关税。中国也以相应的关税作为回应。

周三，中国东部城市南京的一个港口。特朗普总统已对中国商品征收至少125%的关税。

In some ways, Americans are more likely to be directly affected by price increases from the tariff war, because imported goods make up the texture of daily life in the United States. China’s U.S. imports are mostly intermediate products, like soybeans and farm equipment, not consumer goods. And China has worked to diversify its supply chains since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs in his first term. Brazil, not the United States, is now China’s top soybean supplier.

在某些方面，美国人更有可能直接受到关税战带来的价格上涨的影响，因为进口商品构成了美国日常生活的基本要素。中国从美国进口的大部分是中间产品，如大豆和农业设备，而不是消费品。自特朗普在第一个任期内征收关税以来，中国一直在努力使其供应链多样化。现在中国最大的大豆供应国是巴西而不是美国。

Many high-profile American brands in China, like Nike, won’t have to dramatically raise prices, because many of their products are made outside the United States. Some American electronics or cars, like Chevrolets, would see prices jump, but American automakers have been losing ground in China anyway.

在中国，耐克等许多知名美国品牌不必大幅提高价格，因为它们的许多产品都是在美国以外生产的。一些美国的电子产品或汽车，比如雪佛兰，价格会大幅上涨，但美国汽车制造商在中国的市场占有率本来就一直在下降。

耐克等一些美国品牌不必因为关税而大幅提高在中国的价格，因为它们的许多产品都是在美国以外生产的。

Ye Yi, a 42-year-old wine importer in Beijing, would be hurt by the tariffs, in theory. He sells wine from Napa Valley for about $134 a bottle.

42岁的叶毅（音）是北京的一名葡萄酒进口商，理论上他会受到关税的伤害。他销售的纳帕谷葡萄酒每瓶售价约1000元。

But he said he wasn’t worried about China’s new levies, because nobody was buying such expensive wines anyway. They were once popular with businesspeople throwing banquets, but as customers became more cost-conscious they opted for cheaper wines from Australia or Chile.

但他说他并不担心中国的新关税，因为这么贵的酒反正也没人买。这种酒一度受到商务宴会的青睐，但随着客户越来越注重成本，他们会选择来自澳大利亚或智利的更便宜的葡萄酒。

Mr. Ye said his business had dropped by 70 to 80 percent since early 2023. He does not plan to order more American wine and is looking for ways to get out of the industry altogether, he said.

叶毅说，自2023年初以来，他的业务下降了70%到80%。他说，他不打算订购更多的美国葡萄酒，正在寻找彻底退出这个行业的方法。

“We’re riding a donkey while looking for a horse,” Mr. Ye said, using a Chinese idiom about making do.

“现在基本上都是骑驴找马，”叶毅用了一个中国成语来形容目前的权宜之计。

Indeed, the bigger problem for Chinese consumption is not rising prices, but the fact that people aren’t spending much to begin with.

的确，中国消费面临的更大问题不是物价上涨，而是人们本身就不怎么消费。

Many Chinese companies have been entangled in damaging price wars as consumers demand ever-lower prices. Some of the fastest-growing brands in recent years have been ultracheap ones. Qunar, a Chinese travel company, partly attributed the uptick in travel during the Tomb Sweeping Festival to cheaper hotel rooms.

由于消费者要求更低的价格，许多中国公司陷入了破坏性的价格战。近年来增长最快的一些品牌都是超廉价品牌。中国旅游公司去哪儿网将清明节期间旅游人数的上升部分归因于酒店客房价格的降低。

Even if the tariffs hit Chinese manufacturers hard by reducing demand in the United States, or making American intermediate goods more expensive, they may try to absorb the costs themselves, to stay competitive.

即使关税减少了美国的需求，或使美国的中间产品更加昂贵，从而严重打击中国制造商，他们也可能试图自己消化成本，以保持竞争力。

Any recent small gains in consumer confidence may already be vanishing. Chinese stocks have fallen sharply this week, though government efforts to stabilize the markets have helped. In manufacturing hubs like Guangzhou, exporters have seen orders canceled.

最近消费者信心的小幅增长可能已经消失了。中国股市本周大幅下跌，尽管政府稳定市场的努力有所帮助。在广州等制造业中心，出口商的订单被取消。

广州的众多小工厂之一。这家工厂生产餐厅用具。

Many economists agree that in the long term, getting consumers to spend more will require major investments in China’s limited social safety net. Medical costs for serious illnesses can be devastating for families. People from the countryside, in particular, have almost no pensions, and they have trouble accessing education or health care in cities.

许多经济学家认为，从长远来看，要让消费者增加消费，就需要对中国有限的社会保障体系进行重大投资。重病的医疗费用对家庭来说可能是毁灭性的。尤其是来自农村的人，他们几乎没有养老金，也难以在城市获得教育或医疗保健。

“When people feel safe about their retirement life and feel safe about their financials after some major life events like illness, then I think they’re definitely going to be more willing to spend,” said Xu Tianchen, a China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

经济学人智库的中国问题分析师徐天辰表示：“如果人们对退休生活感到安全，在经历疾病等重大生活事件后对财务状况感到安全，我认为他们肯定会更愿意消费。”

Historically, Chinese leaders have been wary of expanding the safety net, citing, among other things, concern about encouraging laziness.

从历史上看，中国领导人一直对扩大社会保障网持谨慎态度，理由之一是担心会鼓励懒惰。

But Mr. Xu said he was optimistic that Beijing was now serious about reforms, to support consumption. The government said last month that it would work to increase wages, pensions and medical benefits.

但是徐天辰说他相信中国政府现在是在切实考虑进行改革，以支持消费。中国政府上个月表示，将努力提高工资、养老金和医疗福利。

“Because there’s no way back for U.S.-China trade, I would say, and especially on the China side, they have to be realistic about finding the next engine for the Chinese economy,” Mr. Xu said.

“因为美中贸易没有回头路了，我想说，特别是在中国方面，他们必须面对现实，为中国经济找到下一个引擎，”徐天辰说。

周三，上海的外滩牛雕塑。

Such substantive changes are likely to take years. In the meantime, consumers will probably remain skittish about the kind of spending that China needs.

这种实质性的变化可能需要数年时间。与此同时，消费者可能仍会对中国需要的那种消费持谨慎态度。

In Taikoo Li, the shopping district, Zhao Yong, a 42-year-old photographer, said he was hopeful that the government would issue spending vouchers and roll out other policies to blunt the effects of the trade war.

在购物区太古里，42岁的摄影师赵勇（音）说，他希望政府能发放消费券，并推出其他政策来减弱贸易战的影响。

But he was putting his own money into gold — an increasingly popular option for nervous Chinese investors.

但他把自己的钱投入了黄金——对于紧张不安的中国投资者来说，黄金是一种越来越受欢迎的选择。

“Otherwise, what can you buy? You can’t buy a house. You can’t buy stocks. You’d have to be foolish to start your own business,” Mr. Zhao said. “It’s only because our outlook on the general environment is pessimistic that we choose this.”

“不然你买什么呢？房子你不能买，股票你不能买，自己做生意那不是傻子吗，对吧？”赵勇说。“你看好这个东西还是我们对于整个环境判断是悲观的，所以我们才会选择这个东西。”