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北约会成为伊朗战争的另一个牺牲品吗?

ANTON TROIANOVSKI

特朗普总统与北约秘书长马克·吕特去年6月在荷兰会面。本周两人在华盛顿再次会晤,此时伊朗战争已加深了特朗普与北约之间的裂痕。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, described his tense meeting with President Trump this week as a “conversation” that “was really between friends.”

北约秘书长马克·吕特将他本周与特朗普总统之间那场气氛紧张的会面描述为一场“对话”,“实际上是朋友之间的交流”。

Mr. Trump, in a social media post on Thursday, put it slightly differently: “our own, very disappointing, NATO” does not understand “anything unless they have pressure placed upon them!!!”

特朗普在周四的一条社交媒体帖子中的表述则略有不同:“我们这个让人非常失望的北约——除非对他们施加压力,否则他们什么都不懂!!!”

Even as it has violently upended the Middle East and put intense strains on the global economy, the war in Iran has deepened the gulf between Mr. Trump and America’s NATO allies. That is after those countries spent more than a year buffeted by the president’s threats, begun in his first term, to abandon the alliance.

伊朗战争不仅已经彻底搅乱了中东并给全球经济带来巨大压力,也进一步加深了特朗普与美国的北约盟友之间的裂痕。在此之前的这一年多时间里,这些国家已经因总统从第一任期就开始发出的要抛弃北约的威胁而备受冲击。

Mr. Trump is training his anger at NATO as his cease-fire with Iran hangs in the balance and even some of his supporters question whether the United States really achieved its objectives. He is airing his discontent over his inability to take over Greenland, despite behind-the-scenes talks over the Danish island that the White House says are going well. And he is forcing European leaders yet again to try to keep him from abandoning them, even as their countries struggle to shoulder the economic costs of the U.S. war with Iran.

在与伊朗的停火前景仍不明朗、甚至连他的部分支持者都开始质疑美国是否真正实现目标之际,特朗普正将怒火对准北约。他还表达了对未能接管格陵兰岛的不满,尽管白宫称有关这座丹麦岛屿的幕后谈判进展顺利。同时,他再次迫使欧洲领导人竭力挽留,唯恐被其抛弃,尽管这些国家正艰难承受美国与伊朗的战争带来的经济成本。

“We have, sometimes, the political home front to take care of,” Mr. Rutte said onstage at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington on Thursday, in a diplomatically phrased reminder that the war was deeply unpopular in Europe. “NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans, but also to protect the United States.”

“我们有时也需要顾及国内政治局势,”吕特周四在华盛顿罗纳德·里根研究所的一场活动上表示,这是一种外交措辞,提醒人们这场战争在欧洲极不受欢迎。“北约当然是为了保护欧洲,但同时也是为了保护美国。”

Mr. Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, was making the point that the U.S. military benefits from its bases in Europe and, despite the tensions, has used them as staging sites for the war on Iran. But widening cracks in the alliance show that even if negotiators succeed in making a deal in the talks that start Saturday for a more permanent end to the war, the scars are likely to be lasting.

这位荷兰前首相意在指出,美国军方从其欧洲基地中受益,并且尽管存在紧张关系,仍将其用作对伊朗战争的集结地。然而,联盟内部不断扩大的裂痕表明,即使谈判代表能在周六开始的旨在达成更持久停火的会谈中成功达成协议,这些裂痕也很可能留下长期影响。

The Iran war “has become a trans-Atlantic stress test,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said on Thursday, after acknowledging that his country was “massively suffering” from the energy market disruptions caused by the war. “We do not want — I do not want — a split within NATO.”

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周四表示,伊朗战争“已经成为跨大西洋关系的一次压力测试”。此前他承认,德国正“深受”这场战争对能源市场造成冲击的影响。“我们不希望——我本人也不希望——北约内部出现分裂。”

Mr. Trump’s disdain for the alliance dates back decades, underpinned by his conviction that Europeans have been freeloading off the American security umbrella. His latest fury stems from U.S. allies’ refusal to embrace his decision to join Israel in assaulting Iran, with Britain and Spain setting limits on the United States’ ability to use bases on their territory.

特朗普对北约的轻视可以追溯到数十年前,其根源在于他认为欧洲长期搭便车,依赖美国的安全保护。他最近的愤怒则源于美国盟友拒绝支持他与以色列一道对伊朗发动攻击的决定,其中英国和西班牙对美军使用境内基地设置了限制

Mr. Trump escalated his threats against NATO even as he prepared to wind down the war — and despite the fact that he did not try to build a coalition with European countries before the bombing started. He told The Telegraph last week that he may pull out of the alliance entirely. In a news conference on Monday, a day before the cease-fire, Mr. Trump volunteered that he still sought control of Greenland, the semiautonomous Danish territory in the North Atlantic.

即使已经准备逐步结束战争,特朗普仍加大了对北约的威胁——尽管在发动空袭前,他并未尝试与欧洲国家建立行动同盟。他上周在接受《每日电讯报》采访时表示,可能会完全退出北约。在周一的新闻发布会上——也就是停火前一天——特朗普还主动表示,他仍寻求控制位于北大西洋的丹麦半自治领地格陵兰岛。

“It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump said after voicing his dissatisfaction with Europe’s lack of support for the Iran war. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us.”

“说实话,这一切都始于格陵兰,”特朗普在表达对欧洲未支持伊朗战争的不满后说道,“我们想要格陵兰,他们却不愿意给我们。”

He reinforced the point Wednesday, posting on social media in all capitals that “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them” and that Greenland was a “big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”

他在周三再次强化了这一点,在社交媒体上用全大写字母发文称“我们需要北约时他们不在”,并称格陵兰是一块“庞大、管理不善的冰块!!!”。

Mr. Trump’s pivot back to Greenland was striking given that he said in January that he and Mr. Rutte had formed a “great” framework for a future deal over the island. Three-way talks between officials from Greenland, Denmark and the United States have continued since. There is no indication that those talks would grant control of Greenland to the United States, but a White House official said the administration was optimistic about the course of the talks.

特朗普将注意力重新转向格陵兰,这一点颇为引人注目,因为他在今年1月曾表示,他与马克·吕特已经就该岛未来协议达成了一个“很棒”的框架。此后,来自格陵兰、丹麦和美国的官员一直在进行三方会谈。目前没有迹象表明这些谈判会将格陵兰的控制权交给美国,但一名白宫官员表示,政府对谈判进展持乐观态度。

In years past, many of Mr. Trump’s allies in Washington tried to rein in his attacks on NATO, seeking to remind him of the power that the United States gains from being able to base troops and warplanes in Europe. But in recent weeks, many of the war’s supporters in the United States have joined Mr. Trump in piling on against NATO, especially given the president’s frustration over Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

过去几年里,特朗普在华盛顿的许多盟友曾试图约束他对北约的攻击,提醒他美国可以通过在欧洲驻军和部署战机而获得战略优势。但最近几周,美国国内许多战争的支持者加入了对北约的批评行列,尤其是在特朗普对伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡感到不满的背景下。

Sean Hannity, the Fox News host close to the president, said on his show Wednesday night that Europe was “a dying continent” and mused that “I’m not sure it’s worth going forward with NATO as we go on.”

与总统关系密切的福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提周三晚在节目中表示,欧洲是“一个垂死的大陆”,并感叹道,“我不确定随着事态发展,继续维持北约是否还有意义。”

Jack Keane, a retired general whom Mr. Trump awarded a Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2020, told Mr. Hannity that he did not think the president would pull out of NATO because “there is still value” in the alliance, but he predicted there would be consequences.

2020年被特朗普授予总统自由勋章的退役将军杰克·基恩告诉汉尼提,他认为总统不会退出北约,因为这个联盟“仍然有价值”,但他预测会出现一些后果。

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t decide to move some of our troops out of Western European countries and move them into Eastern Europe countries,” General Keane said. “I think we’ll likely do something.”

“如果我们决定将部分驻军从西欧国家撤到东欧国家,我不会感到惊讶,”基恩将军说。“我想我们很可能会有所行动。”

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump was considering moving U.S. troops stationed in Europe from countries seen as unhelpful in the war effort to ones seen as supportive, like Poland and Romania. The White House did not comment on the report, but a senior U.S. military official in Europe said that options were being reviewed.

《华尔街日报》周三报道,特朗普正在考虑将驻欧美军从那些被认为在这场战争中不够配合的国家,转移到波兰和罗马尼亚等被视为态度更为支持的国家。白宫未对该报道发表评论,但一名驻欧洲的美军高级官员表示,相关选项正在评估中。

Mr. Trump has threatened NATO many times, only to largely preserve the status quo. In the president’s latest outburst, some analysts also see a familiar inclination to attack a weaker party, especially given Mr. Trump’s inability to compel Iran to surrender after five weeks of bombardment.

特朗普曾多次威胁北约,但最终大体维持现状。在一些分析人士看来,总统最近的这次爆发也体现了一种熟悉的倾向——攻击相对弱势的一方,尤其是在经过五周轰炸后仍未能迫使伊朗屈服的背景下。

“Beating up on Europe and NATO has really no domestic cost,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s quite typical for Trump: When things are going wrong, he finds the weakest person in the room and blames them.”

“对欧洲和北约发难在国内几乎没有成本,”曾任美国国务院官员、现任欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任的杰里米·夏皮罗表示,“这很符合特朗普的一贯风格:当事情进展不顺时,他会找房间里最弱的那个人来指责。”

Eric Schmitt自华盛顿、Christopher F. Schuetze自柏林对本文有报道贡献。

Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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