2025年7月31日
For more than a decade, Rudi Hendri sold locally made clothes from a stall inside Jakarta’s labyrinthine Tanah Abang market. Then three years ago, a businessman from China and his translator showed up with a proposition and changed everything.
十多年来,鲁迪·亨德里一直在雅加达迷宫般的塔纳阿邦市场里摆摊,售卖当地制作的服装。直到三年前,一位中国商人带着翻译找上门来,提出了一个合作提议,一切从此改变。
They brought samples of sportswear, made in Chinese factories, that were well made and cheaper than the Indonesian-made wares Mr. Rudi had always sold. Mr. Rudi, 55, felt he couldn’t say no. Now he runs three stalls and has a partnership with multiple Chinese factories.
他们带来了中国工厂生产的运动服装样品,这些样品做工精良,而且比鲁迪一直售卖的印尼产服装更便宜。55岁的鲁迪觉得自己无法拒绝。如今,他经营着三个摊位,还与多家中国工厂建立了合作关系。
“If the product quality is good and the price is right for me, I’ll take that,” Mr. Rudi said last week at Tanah Abang. Nearby, his workers sifted through a mountain of Chinese-made clothes.
“要是产品质量好,价格又适合我,我就会进货,”鲁迪上周在塔纳阿邦市场说道。在他旁边,工人们正从堆积如山的中国产服装中仔细挑选。
When President Trump complains that trade with China is killing jobs, it resonates in Indonesia. But it is Indonesian jobs that cannot compete: The country has been dealing with China’s outsize influence on every aspect of its economy for more than a decade.
特朗普总统称与中国的贸易在扼杀就业机会,这样的控诉在印度尼西亚引起了共鸣。但实际上,是印尼的就业岗位缺乏竞争力:十多年来,印尼一直在应对中国对其经济各个方面产生的巨大影响。
“The worst-case scenario is not that we can’t export,” said Redma Gita Wirawasta, the chairman of the Indonesian Fiber and Filament Yarn Producers Association, referring to Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Indonesian goods. “The worst-case scenario is that more and more Chinese goods will come to Indonesia.”
“最糟糕的情况并非我们无法出口,”印尼纤维和长丝纱线生产商协会主席雷德马·吉塔·维拉瓦斯塔在谈及特朗普对印尼商品加征关税时说道,“最糟糕的情况是,越来越多的中国商品会涌入印尼。”
在印度尼西亚雅加达的塔纳阿邦市场,一位服装商人称赞中国运动服装的质量与价格。
塔纳阿邦市场出售的裤子上贴有中国品牌的标签。
The garment industry has felt it acutely over the past two years, as China has inundated Indonesian consumers with its clothes and taken over local factories. Ruthless competition from cheap Chinese goods has wiped out local factories and mills. The entire domestic supply chain is being dismantled. By Mr. Redma’s estimate, 300,000 people have lost their jobs since 2023.
过去两年,服装行业深切感受到了这一点。中国向印尼消费者大量倾销服装,并接管了当地的工厂。来自廉价中国商品的残酷竞争已经击垮了当地的工厂和作坊,整个国内供应链正在遭到摧毁。据雷德马估计,2023年以来已有30万人失去了工作。
At another clothing stall near Mr. Rudi’s at Tanah Abang, Samuel Lie, 48, counts himself lucky if he can make $4,000 a month these days, less than half of what he used to make. Most of his clients stopped buying from him a few years ago. They tell him that it is cheaper to buy from China.
在塔纳阿邦市场,鲁迪摊位附近的另一个服装摊位上,48岁的塞缪尔·利表示,如今他一个月能挣4000美元(约合2.8万元人民币)就算幸运了,这还不到他过去收入的一半。他的大多数客户几年前就不再从他这里进货了,他们告诉塞缪尔,从中国进货更便宜。
“We can’t compete on quality,” he said.
“我们在质量上无法与之竞争,”他说。
The pressure has become so severe that Indonesia’s last president threatened tariffs of up to 200 percent on Chinese goods. The current president, Prabowo Subianto, even called for the sinking of ships smuggling in textiles, the majority of them arriving from China.
这种压力已经变得非常严峻,印尼上一任总统曾威胁要对中国商品加征高达200%的关税。现任总统普拉博沃·苏比安托甚至呼吁击沉走私纺织品的船只,这些纺织品大多来自中国。
塞缪尔·利说,他在塔纳阿邦市场的多数客户转向了更便宜的中国进口货。
印尼从中国进口的商品在4月增长了51%。
The urgency has coincided with an acceleration of China’s exports as its economic growth slows. With consumption at home weak, Chinese factories, fueled by government loans and support, have turned to Southeast Asia because of its proximity and market potential. Indonesia alone has a population of 284 million. The pace of exports from China to Southeast Asia has only picked up since Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese goods, which have effectively shut off China’s biggest market: the United States.
与此同时,随着经济增速放缓,中国出口加速,使得问题更加紧迫。由于国内消费疲软,在中国政府的贷款和扶持下,中国工厂纷纷将目光转向东南亚,因为这里地理位置邻近,且市场潜力巨大。仅印尼就有2.84亿人口。自从特朗普最近对中国商品加征关税——相当于关闭了美国这个中国最大的出口市场——中国对东南亚的出口进一步加码。
For months, China’s exports to Southeast Asia have surged — last month by 17.5 percent from a year earlier. Indonesia’s monthly imports of Chinese goods spiked 51 percent in April, the most recent data.
数月来,中国对东南亚的出口激增——上个月同比增长17.5%。最新数据显示,4月印尼从中国进口的商品激增了51%。
The surge in Chinese exports to the region has animated Mr. Trump’s ire that China is doing more to reroute its goods through other countries to avoid his new taxes on American importers. Indonesia and the United States agreed this week on a trade deal that places a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian goods in the United States, or an ever steeper levy if goods were found to be rerouted through Indonesia from a country with a higher tariff rate.
中国对该地区出口的激增激起了特朗普的愤怒,他认为中国在通过更多途径将商品经其他国家转运,以规避他对美国进口商征收的新关税。本月,印尼和美国达成了一项贸易协议,对出口到美国的印尼商品征收19%的关税,而如果发现商品是从关税税率更高的国家经印尼转运的,税率还会更高。
But economists said the phenomenon angering Mr. Trump, known as transshipment, is not as big a factor in Indonesia as it is in countries like Vietnam. Most of the Chinese goods going into Indonesia are being bought up by Indonesian consumers, said Euben Paracuelles, chief economist for the region at Nomura, the Japanese bank.
但经济学家表示,这种让特朗普不满的“转运”现象在印尼并不像在越南等国家那样严重。日本野村证券的地区首席经济学家尤本·帕拉库埃莱斯称,进入印尼的大多数中国商品都被印尼消费者买走了。
“This is not a case of goods being shipped to the U.S.,” he added.
“现在的情况并不是这些商品被运到美国去了,”他还说。
在因债务问题倒闭前,这家工厂曾支撑着当地家庭的生活和教育,如今却有1万人失业。
The solution for Indonesia, as it is for many other countries in this part of the world, is not necessarily putting up trade barriers against China.
对印尼来说,就像该地区的许多其他国家一样,解决办法未必是对中国设置贸易壁垒。
Indonesia has become dependent on China for investment to help build out its infrastructure. It’s also the biggest buyer of natural resources like palm oil and coal that drive the Indonesian economy.
印尼在基础设施建设方面依赖中国的投资,中国也是印尼棕榈油、煤炭等推动其经济发展的自然资源的最大买家。
But China’s ability to make cheap goods at enormous scale, aided by generous government subsidies to exporters, has meant that Indonesia is more often the loser when trading with China. Indonesia’s economy has become so intertwined with China’s that, by one estimate, when China’s economy slows by one percentage point, it causes a 0.3-percentage-point decrease in Indonesia’s own economic growth.
但中国大规模生产廉价商品的能力以及政府对出口商的慷慨补贴意味着,印尼在与中国的贸易中往往处于劣势。据估计,印尼经济与中国经济的联系极为紧密,中国经济增速每放缓一个百分点就会导致印尼经济增速下降0.3个百分点。
In the early 2000s, the regional trading bloc the Association of Southeast Asian Nations created a pact with China that required countries to lower their tariffs. Indonesia, which is a member, has lowered nearly all of its barriers to Chinese goods.
21世纪初,东南亚国家联盟这个地区性贸易集团与中国达成了一项协议,要求各国降低关税。成员国之一的印尼几乎拆除了所有针对中国商品的贸易壁垒。
“This has been the main reason for why China sees ASEAN as a market where they can diversify their exports,” Mr. Paracuelles said.
“这就是中国将东盟视为其出口多元化市场的主要原因,”帕拉库埃莱斯说。
China helped to build the high-speed train that starts in the heart of Jakarta and barrels east at 200 miles an hour along the verdant countryside to the city of Bandung, where warehouses and stalls have sold fabrics from nearby mills for decades. Known as the Whoosh, its upholstery and signage is identical to the high-speed trains that connect vast swaths of China.
中国帮助建造了一条高铁,从雅加达市中心出发,向东疾驰穿过郁郁葱葱的乡村,直达万隆市,时速达321公里。几十年来,万隆的仓库和摊位一直售卖附近工厂生产的布料。这条高铁被称为“Whoosh”(有速度飞快的意思。——译注),其内饰和标识与连接中国广大地区的高铁一模一样。
In a nearby market on the outskirts of Bandung, salespeople hawk Chinese fabrics, which have largely replaced locally made ones, except for batik, traditional dyed fabric.
在万隆郊区附近的一个市场里,销售人员兜售着中国布料,除了传统蜡染布之外,中国布料已在很大程度上取代了当地生产的布料。
雅加达哈利姆车站的一列由中国制造的 “Whoosh” 高铁列车。
埃里克·库尼亚万在印度尼西亚万隆的纺织品店直播。
“We feel it, too, here,” said Erik Kurniawan, 25, who took a break from selling the fabrics in his stall on a TikTok livestream. He said that before 2021, the market was focused on selling leftover fabrics from nearby textile factories. Now it sells more fabrics imported from China.
“我们在这里也感受到了这种影响,”25岁的埃里克·库尼亚万说,他刚刚结束在自己摊位上的TikTok直播卖布。他说,2021年以前,这个市场主要售卖附近纺织厂的剩余布料,而现在,这里售卖的更多是从中国进口的布料。
Li Jialun, 73, recalled a time starting in the late 1970s when he was running factories in Bandung making jeans to export to the United States. He has retired from manufacturing — he owns a local Chinese restaurant, Ya Xiu — but said his friends had shut their factories because they could not compete with China.
73岁的李家伦(音)回忆起上世纪70年代末开始的那段时光,当时他在万隆经营工厂,生产牛仔裤出口到美国。如今他已从制造业退休,在当地开了一家名叫“雅秀”(音)的中餐馆,但他说,他的朋友们都关闭了工厂,因为无法与中国竞争。
The effect of those closures ripples through the local economy, costing jobs and hurting businesses that worked for them, said Mr. Li, who was born in Jakarta.
出生于雅加达的李家伦表示,这些工厂的关闭对当地经济产生了连锁反应,导致大量就业岗位流失,也让为这些工厂供货的企业受到了冲击。
“Factories don’t stand alone; there are suppliers,” he said. “Those suppliers are far more numerous. So it affected many people. We can no longer compete with China.”
“工厂并非孤立的存在,它们有供应商,”他说,“这些供应商的数量要多得多,所以这影响到了很多人。我们再也无法与中国竞争了。”
Three-quarters of his customers at the Ya Xiu restaurant are Chinese, he said. During the Covid-19 pandemic, when China closed its borders, his restaurant became a gathering point for some of the 3,000 homesick Chinese workers building the Whoosh train who got stuck in Indonesia.
他说,自己的“雅秀”餐馆有四分之三的顾客是中国人。在新冠疫情期间,中国关闭了边境,那些参与“Whoosh”高铁建设、被困在印尼的3000名思乡的中国工人把他的餐馆当成了一个聚集地。
More than 200 miles east of Bandung, in the city of Solo, one of the country’s biggest textile factories shuttered in March, sending shock waves through the economy.
在万隆以东约322公里的梭罗市,该国最大的纺织厂之一于3月倒闭,对当地经济造成了巨大冲击。
It is still reverberating across Java, Indonesia’s most populous and commercially vibrant island. The factory, owned by Sritex, attracted nearby workers and helped many families send their children to school before it collapsed under its debts, putting 10,000 people out of a job.
这种冲击仍在印尼人口最多、商业最活跃的爪哇岛蔓延。这家名为Sritex的工厂曾吸引了周边的工人前来就业,帮助许多家庭供孩子上学,但最终因债务问题倒闭,导致1万人失业。
图米在Sritex纺织厂工作了30年,她和丈夫就是在那里相识的。
斯里·莱斯塔里也曾是Sritex纺织厂的员工,被裁员后如今在一家炸鸡摊工作。
Tumi, 53, started working in the factory’s yarn spinning department 30 years ago. She met her husband there.
53岁的图米30年前开始在这家工厂的纺纱部门工作,她和丈夫就是在那里相识的。
Standing in her living room, where photos of her colleagues are interspersed with family portraits, she gestured. “This was all built with my salary from Sritex,” said Ms. Tumi, who like many Indonesians goes by one name.
图米和许多印尼人一样,只有一个名字。她站在客厅里,在那里摆放着的家人照片中,还能看到一些同事的照片。她比划着说:“这一切都是靠我在Sritex的工资建起来的。”
She and her friend Sri Lestari, who worked at Sritex for 24 years, teared up when talking about the day in February when management told all the workers that they could go home for the last time.
谈到2月管理层让所有工人最后一次下班回家的那一天时,图米和她在Sritex工作了24年的朋友斯里·莱斯塔里都流下了眼泪。
Both women are unsure how to keep paying for tuition for their children still in school. They are making ends meet by operating spicy chicken and coconut stalls outside Ms. Tumi’s house. But the money is not nearly enough.
两位女士都不知道该如何继续支付仍在上学的孩子的学费。她们现在靠在图米家外面摆摊卖香辣鸡肉和椰子制品勉强维持生计,但赚的钱远远不够。