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印巴在克什米尔冲突再起,你应该知道的关键问题

ZIA ur-REHMAN, MUJIB MASHAL, ANUPREETA DAS

2025年5月9日

4月25日,印度安全部队在克什米尔的达尔湖畔巡逻。 Adnan Abidi/Reuters

The risk of all-out war between India and Pakistan rose on Thursday, despite diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries.

周四,印度和巴基斯坦之间爆发全面战争的风险上升,尽管这两个拥核国家都试图通过外交手段缓和冲突。

On Wednesday, India said it carried out strikes on Pakistan in retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in Kashmir last month. Pakistan said its forces shot down Indian aircraft. Overnight into Thursday, heavy shelling and strikes were reported on each side of the border.

印度在周三称其对巴基斯坦进行了空袭,以报复上个月在克什米尔造成26名平民死亡的恐怖袭击。巴基斯坦称其军队击落了印度飞机。据报道,从当晚到星期四,边境两侧都发生了猛烈的炮击和袭击。

The two nations have fought numerous wars, with the disputed area of Kashmir as a prime flashpoint, since 1947, when Britain divided India, its former colony, into India and Pakistan.

自1947年英国将其前殖民地印度划分为印度和巴基斯坦以来,两国之间爆发了无数场战争,有争议的克什米尔地区是主要的爆发点。

Here is what to know about attempts to resolve the conflict, Wednesday’s strikes, the attack in Kashmir, and the longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan.

以下是有关解决冲突的努力、周三的空袭、克什米尔袭击事件以及印度和巴基斯坦之间长期紧张关系的要点。

What’s the latest in the fighting?

战斗的最新情况如何?

Pakistani attempts to unleash drones and missiles at Indian military targets in more than a dozen cities and towns, many of them home to air force bases.

巴基斯坦试图向印度十几个城镇的军事目标发射无人机和导弹,其中许多是空军基地所在地。

India said it had responded by striking Pakistan’s air defense systems and radars close to the city of Lahore — the kind of blow that often causes a military conflict to intensify, analysts said.

印度表示,作为回应,该国对巴基斯坦在拉合尔市附近的防空系统和雷达进行了打击。分析人士表示,这种打击通常会导致军事冲突加剧。

Pakistan accused India of continuing what it called illegal aggression and said its forces had shot down more than two dozen Indian drones that entered Pakistan’s airspace.

巴基斯坦指责印度继续其所称的非法侵略,并表示其军队击落了20多架进入巴基斯坦领空的印度无人机。

In the rapidly developing situation, the claims from both sides could not be independently verified.On Wednesday, the Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region.

在事态迅速发展的情况下,双方的说法都无法得到独立证实。周三,印度政府表示其军队打击了巴基斯坦境内和克什米尔争议地区巴方一侧的九个地点。

Pakistani military officials said that more than 20 people had been killed and dozens injured after six places were hit on the Pakistani side of Kashmir and in Punjab Province. Residents of the Indian side of Kashmir said at least 10 people had been killed in shelling from the Pakistani side since India carried out its strikes.

巴基斯坦军方官员表示,克什米尔巴基斯坦一侧和旁遮普省的六个地点遭到袭击,造成20多人死亡,数十人受伤。克什米尔印度一侧的居民说,自印度发动袭击以来,至少有10人在巴方的炮击中丧生。

A spokesman for the Pakistani Army said that five other places had also come under attack, leaving at least eight people dead and 35 wounded.

巴基斯坦军方发言人说,另外还有五个地点遭到袭击,造成至少八人死亡,35人受伤。

The targeted locations included Bahawalpur, in Punjab Province, Pakistan, the site of a religious seminary associated with Jaish-e-Mohammad, another Pakistan-based militant group; Kotli and Bagh in Pakistan-administered Kashmir; and Shakargarh and Muridke in Punjab. Lashkar-e-Taiba is believed to have a presence in Muridke.The Pakistani military said that Indian planes did not enter Pakistan’s airspace while conducting the attacks.

遇袭地点包括巴基斯坦旁遮普省的巴哈瓦尔布尔,那里是与巴基斯坦另一激进组织穆罕默德军有关联的神学院所在地;巴控克什米尔的科特利和巴格;旁遮普的沙卡加尔和穆里德克。穆里德克据信有虔诚军力量。巴基斯坦军方说,印度飞机在进行袭击时没有进入巴基斯坦领空。

What are the efforts to stop the fighting?

各方为停止战斗做出了哪些努力?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with leaders from both countries on Thursday and emphasized the need for “immediate de-escalation,” according to State Department accounts of the calls.

国务卿鲁比奥周四与两国领导人进行了通话,根据国务院对通话内容的描述,他强调了“立即缓和紧张局势”的必要性。

There were a flurry of diplomatic meetings in New Delhi and Islamabad on Thursday. Top diplomats from Iran and Saudi Arabia, crucial regional players who have close ties to both of the warring countries, were in New Delhi for meetings.

周四,在新德里和伊斯兰堡举行了一系列外交会议。伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的高级外交官在新德里参会,这两个国家在该地区扮演着重要角色,与两个交战国都有着密切的关系。

The diplomatic push was centered around the hope that the heaviest military engagement could be contained to the actions on early Wednesday. Both sides could plausibly claim victory, as India struck deeper into Pakistan than it had at any point in recent decades, and Pakistan downed several Indian planes.

外交努力的核心是希望最激烈的交战仅限于周三早那样的行动。双方都可以看上去有理有据地宣称取得了胜利,因为印度对巴基斯坦的打击比近几十年来任何时候都要深入,而巴基斯坦则击落了数架印度飞机。

Diplomats and analysts expressed some hope that the day’s events might offer the two sides an offramp. The question now is whether Pakistan will decide that it must answer India’s strikes in Punjab, the Pakistani heartland, with an attack of its own on Indian soil.

外交和分析人士表示,希望当天的事件可能为双方提供一个退路。现在的问题是,巴基斯坦是否会决定必须以对印度领土的攻击来回应印度对巴基斯坦腹地旁遮普省的打击。

What happened in the Kashmir attack?

克什米尔袭击事件中发生了什么?

On April 22, 26 people in the Baisaran Valley in Kashmir were killed by militants who approached and shot them. Another 17 were injured.

4月22日,武装分子来到克什米尔的拜萨兰山谷,开枪打死26人。另有17人受伤。

Except for one local Kashmiri man, a government tally of the dead showed that all were Hindu tourists. Accounts from the injured and survivors suggested many were targeted after they were asked about their religion. The attack, which occurred near Pahalgam, a town in the southern part of Indian-administered Kashmir, was one of the worst on Indian civilians in decades.

政府对死者的统计显示,除了一名当地的克什米尔男子外,所有死者都是印度教游客。伤者和幸存者的说法表明,许多人在被问及宗教信仰后成为袭击目标。这次袭击发生在印控克什米尔南部城镇巴哈尔甘附近,是几十年来针对印度平民最严重的袭击之一。

A group calling itself the Resistance Front emerged on social media to take responsibility. Indian officials privately say the group is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan.

一个自称“抵抗阵线”的组织在社交媒体上出现,声称对此负责。印度官员私下说,这个组织是总部设在巴基斯坦的恐怖组织虔诚军的代理者。

In Kashmir, Indian security forces have begun a sweeping clampdown, arresting thousands of people.

在克什米尔,印度安全部队开始大规模镇压,逮捕了数以千计人

What is Operation Sindoor?

朱砂行动”是什么?

“Operation Sindoor” for its military action.

“朱砂行动”是一项军事行动。

Sindoor, or vermilion powder, is a traditional marker of the marital status of Hindu women. Married women wear it either in the parting of their hair or on their foreheads, and they wipe it off if they become widowed. During the April 22 terrorist attack, many women lost their husbands, who were targeted because they were Hindu.

朱砂是印度妇女婚姻状况的传统标志。已婚妇女将其涂在头发的分叉处或额头上,如果成为寡妇,就会把它擦掉。在4月22日的恐怖袭击中,许多女性失去了丈夫,他们因为是印度教徒而成为目标。

The Indian government’s choice of the name Operation Sindoor signaled its intention to avenge the widowed women.

印度政府选择“朱砂行动”这个名称,表明它打算为那些丧偶女性复仇。

“Operation Sindoor” also signals to right-wing Hindu groups — many of which favor more traditionally defined gender roles — that the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is listening to their demands for vengeance.

“朱砂行动”也是在向右翼印度教团体发出信号——其中许多人更倾向于传统定义的性别角色——莫迪总理领导的印度教民族主义政府正在倾听他们复仇的要求。

But some feminists have criticized the use of the word sindoor.

但是一些女权主义者批评了“朱砂”这个词的使用。

Hindu nationalism is predominantly driven by a male view of the world, said V. Geetha, a feminist historian who writes about gender, caste and class. “Women figure in it as objects to be protected or as mother figures goading their men to prove their heroism,” Ms. Geetha said.

就性别、种姓和阶级问题撰文的女权主义历史学家V·吉塔说,印度民族主义主要是由男性的世界观驱动的。“女性在其中扮演的角色是被保护的对象,或者是激励男性证明自己的英雄气概的母亲角色,”吉塔说。

What are the origins of the dispute?

争端的起源是什么?

The roots of the Kashmir conflict trace back to the 1947 partition of British India, which led to the creation of a predominantly Hindu India and a predominantly Muslim Pakistan.In October of that year, the Hindu monarch of the Muslim-majority princely state of Kashmir acceded to India, but Pakistan laid claim to the territory and sought to take it by military force. A U.N.-brokered agreement in 1949 established a cease-fire line, dividing Kashmir.

克什米尔冲突的根源可以追溯到1947年英属印度的分治,其结果是一个以印度教为主的印度和一个以穆斯林为主的巴基斯坦的建立。同年10月,穆斯林占多数的克什米尔土邦的印度教君主加入印度,但巴基斯坦声称对该领土拥有主权,并试图武力夺取。1949年在联合国斡旋下达成的一项协议划定了一条停火线,将克什米尔一分为二。

After wars in 1965 and 1971, the cease-fire line became the Line of Control, with India possessing about two-thirds of Kashmir and Pakistan the rest. But the dispute remains unresolved.

在1965年和1971年的战争之后,停火线变成了控制线,印度拥有大约三分之二的克什米尔,巴基斯坦拥有其余部分。但争端仍未解决。

Has Pakistan supported militancy in Kashmir?

巴基斯坦是否支持克什米尔的军事行动?

An insurgency in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir began in the 1980s, primarily driven by local grievances, with Pakistan eventually supporting some groups, experts say.

印控克什米尔地区的叛乱始于20世纪80年代,主要是由当地的不满情绪引起的,专家称,巴基斯坦最终支持了一些组织。

Among the Kashmir-focused insurgent groups that emerged, some supported independence for the region, while others wanted the Indian side of Kashmir to be taken over by Pakistan.

在以克什米尔为中心的叛乱组织中,一些人支持该地区独立,而另一些人则希望克什米尔的印度一侧由巴基斯坦接管。

In the 1990s, Pakistan provided training and other support to several militant groups operating in Kashmir and within Pakistan. This involvement was later acknowledged by several senior Pakistani officials, including the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The spike in insurgency in the 1990s forced an exodus of Kashmir’s minority Hindus, a large number of them leaving for New Delhi and other cities after facing targeted attacks.

20世纪90年代,巴基斯坦向在克什米尔和巴基斯坦境内活动的几个激进组织提供了训练和其他支持。后来,包括前军事统治者佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫在内的几位巴基斯坦高级官员承认了这种参与。90年代,叛乱活动激增,迫使在克什米尔占少数的印度教徒大量逃离,其中许多人在面临有针对性的袭击后前往新德里和其他城市。

The insurgency began to ease around 2002, as Pakistan banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, another major militant group, although Lashkar-e-Taiba continued to operate under aliases. A cease-fire was declared and a peace process with India was initiated, a shift that some observers linked to pressure by the United States after its post-9/11 intervention in Afghanistan.

叛乱在2002年前后开始缓和,因为巴基斯坦取缔了虔诚军和穆罕默德军(另一个主要的军事组织),但虔诚军继续打着别的旗号活动。巴基斯坦宣布停火,并启动了与印度的和平进程,一些观察人士认为,这一转变与9·11事件后出兵干预阿富汗的美国施加的压力有关。

The peace process collapsed after attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, which killed 166 people and were attributed to Lashkar-e-Taiba.

2008年,印度孟买发生袭击,造成166人死亡,和平进程随之破裂,袭击被认为是虔诚军所为。

What is Kashmir’s status now?

克什米尔现在的情况如何?

Since war last broke out in 1999, Kashmir has remained one of the most militarized places in the world. India and Pakistan have come to the brink of war several times, including in 2019, when a suicide bombing in Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian soldiers.

自1999年战争爆发以来,克什米尔一直是世界上军事化程度最高的地区之一。印度和巴基斯坦曾多次濒临战争边缘,包括2019年,克什米尔发生的一起自杀式炸弹袭击造成至少40名印度士兵死亡。

In 2019, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked a part of the Indian constitution that had given semi-autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The move, to fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir, as India’s portion of the region is known, was part of his Hindu nationalist agenda.

2019年,莫迪政府撤销了印度宪法中赋予查谟和克什米尔邦半自治权的部分内容。此举是他的印度教民族主义议程的一部分,旨在统一查谟和克什米尔。

Pakistan condemned India’s moves. But violent unrest has broken out in the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan, too. Protests there have reflected a general feeling of dissatisfaction with Pakistani rule.

巴基斯坦谴责印度的举动。但是巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区也爆发了暴力骚乱。那里的抗议活动反映了人们对巴基斯坦统治的普遍不满

Direct rule by India dampened the outbreaks of violence in the portion of Kashmir it controlled. Voting also resumed last year. But discontent with Mr. Modi’s party, particularly for how heavily it polices the lives of Kashmiris, remains.

印度的直接统治压制了其控制的克什米尔地区的动荡。投票也在去年恢复。但对莫迪领导的政党的不满情绪依然存在,尤其是针对该党对克什米尔人生活的严厉监管。

Mujib Mashal是时报南亚分社社长,负责领导印度及其周边地区的报道,包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。

Anupreeta Das为时报报道印度和南亚新闻。她常驻新德里。

Pragati K.B.是时报驻新德里记者,报道印度各地新闻。

翻译:晋其角

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