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印度积极经济援助邻国,对抗中国影响力

MUJIB MASHAL

2024年10月11日

印度资助的马尔代夫住房项目。印度在经济上的成功使其在该地区有更大的影响力。 Elke Scholiers for The New York Times

As political turmoil churns India’s immediate neighborhood, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been using a relatively new asset to compete with China for influence: the financial wherewithal that comes with a fast-growing economy.

随着印度的近邻们政治动荡不断,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政府已在使用一种相对较新的财产——国内经济快速增长带来的资金——来与中国竞争影响力。

When Sri Lanka suffered economic catastrophe in 2022, India stepped in with over $4 billion in aid. In tiny neighboring Bhutan, which has boundary disputes with China, Mr. Modi this year doubled India’s assistance, to $1 billion over five years. In Bangladesh, he provided billions for infrastructure projects to back that country’s autocratic leader, who promoted India’s interests until she was ousted in August.

斯里兰卡2022年遭受经济灾难后,印度施以援手,为该国提供了逾40亿美元的援助。在与中国存在边界争端的小邻国不丹,莫迪今年将印度的援助增加了一倍,五年内将达到10亿美元。他为孟加拉国的基础设施项目提供了数十亿美元的资金,以支持该国的独裁领导人,这位领导人在今年8月被赶下台前曾一直推动印度的利益。

The latest beneficiary is the Maldives. Its new president, Mohamed Muizzu, campaigned last year on an “India Out” platform, demanding that Mr. Modi withdraw a small military contingent from the archipelago nation. But that seemed forgotten on Monday, when Mr. Muizzu arrived in New Delhi for a state dinner, a photo opportunity at the Taj Mahal with his wife, and over $750 million in Indian aid to bail his government out of extreme fiscal stress.

最新的受益者是马尔代夫。该国新任总统穆罕默德·穆伊兹去年曾打着“印度滚出去”的旗号参加竞选,要求莫迪从这个岛国撤出一支小的军事特遣队。但本周一,这一切似乎已被遗忘,穆伊兹往新德里出席国宴,并与妻子一起在泰姬陵让记者拍照,还接受了印度一笔逾7.5亿美元的援助,以帮助其政府摆脱极端的财政困境。

“India is a key partner in the socioeconomic and infrastructure development of the Maldives and has stood by the Maldives during our times of need,” said Mr. Muizzu, standing next to Mr. Modi.

“印度是马尔代夫社会经济和基础设施发展的重要合作伙伴,在马尔代夫需要的时候一直支持我们,”穆伊兹站在莫迪身边说了这番话。

09India cash 05 bmzg master1050印度资助的马尔代夫住房项目。印度在经济上的成功使其在该地区有更大的影响力。

India’s economy is growing at about 7 percent while China and its other neighbors struggle to return to prepandemic growth levels, according to the World Bank. Political and business leaders increasingly see India, despite frustrations with its bureaucracy, as an exciting partner for deals and trade agreements, with an economy that has yet to reach its full potential.

据世界银行统计,印度经济正在以约7%的速度增长,而中国和其他邻国则在让增长恢复到疫情前的水平上面临重重困难。政治和商业领袖们尽管对印度的官僚机构不满,但正越来越多地将印度视为做生意和签贸易协定的令人兴奋的合作伙伴,该国的经济仍有很大的发展空间。

Many poorer Indians have seen little benefit from that growth, as the country still struggles to generate enough employment. But it has provided the government with much-needed cash to grease diplomatic wheels, while China’s economic struggles have forced it to somewhat reduce its regional largess.

许多穷困的印度人并没有从这种增长中得到多少利益,因为印度在创造足够多的就业机会上仍面临困难。但这种增长为政府提供了推动其外交进程急需的资金,而中国在经济上面临困境,迫使它在一定程度上减少了对该地区的慷慨解囊。

The newfound leverage is coming in handy for India. It has faced repeated diplomatic setbacks in the region, where its traditional influence had been waning in the face of China’s aggressive push. Over the past year, India-friendly leaders in at least three countries were either voted out or toppled in protests.

印度将新获得的影响力派上了用场。在中国咄咄逼人地向印度周边国家推进影响力的时候,印度在该地区的传统影响力已经减弱,一再在外交上遇到挫折。在过去一年里,至少有三个国家的亲印领导人要么在选举中被淘汰,要么在抗议中下台。

“India is able to deploy much more power now in the neighborhood, and the economic clout is far stronger than it was — there’s no doubt about it,” said Nirupama Menon Rao, who was once India’s foreign secretary. “But the political interests that bind us to the neighborhood, I think they are constant.”

“印度现在能在周边地区行使更大的影响力,印度的经济影响力也比过去大得多——这是毫无疑问的,”曾任印度外长的尼鲁帕玛·梅农·拉奥琪说。“但是我认为,将我们与周边地区联系在一起的政治利益是不变的。”

Even leaders in the region who are “traditionally labeled or stereotyped as anti-India” have little choice but to work with New Delhi, Ms. Rao said. That is not just for immediate financial help, but to align themselves with India in the longer term, in the hope that its economic potential can bring them future windfalls.

就连该地区那些“传统上被认为是反印度或给人留下了这种刻板印象”的领导人,除了与新德里合作外也别无选择,拉奥琪说。这不仅仅是为了获得即时的经济援助,也是为了与印度建立长期的盟友关系,希望印度的经济潜力能在未来给它们带来好处。

Regional leaders are showing a “high seriousness in understanding the growing economic clout and the place that India is taking on the global stage,” Ms. Rao said. India, in turn, is taking a more pragmatic approach to some of its neighbors than it once did, avoiding “histrionics” and “diplomatic theater,” she said.

区域领导人正在“对了解印度日益增长的经济影响力以及它在全球舞台上的地位表现出高度认真的态度”,拉奥琪说。反过来,印度也正在对一些邻国采取比以前更务实的态度,避免“装腔作势”和“外交表演”,她说。

A hard lesson came this year from Bangladesh, the country of 170 million people that shares a 2,000-mile border with India.

今年,孟加拉国提供了一个惨痛的教训,这个有1.7亿人口的邻国与印度有长达3200公里的边界。

India was seen as a staunch protector, financially and diplomatically, of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s increasingly autocratic prime minister. As Ms. Hasina persecuted critics and opponents, India used its diplomatic leverage to urge her Western critics to back off. In Bangladesh, anger against her began to translate into anger against India.

印度曾被视为孟加拉国越来越专制的总理谢赫·哈西娜在经济和外交上的的坚定保护者。随着哈西娜迫害批评人士和反对者,印度曾利用自己的外交影响力来劝说西方批评者闭嘴。孟加拉国人对总理的愤怒已开始转化为对印度的愤怒。

When she was driven out of office in August — toppled by huge protests, which surged drastically after her security forces killed hundreds of demonstrators — Ms. Hasina fled to India. Her continuing presence there has created a dilemma: On the one hand, India wants to signal that it will stand by its friends. But sheltering Ms. Hasina will cause problems as India tries to regain ground with Bangladesh’s new political powers.

哈西娜今年8月被赶下台——导致其下台的大规模抗议活动在安全部队打死了数百名示威者后急剧升温——她逃往印度。哈西娜继续留在印度制造了一个困境:一方面,印度想表明自己忠于朋友。但随着印度试图博得孟加拉国新政治力量的青睐,为哈西娜提供庇护将带来问题。

09India cash 04 bmzg master1050谢赫·哈西娜今年8月辞去孟加拉国总理职务并逃离后,抗议者冲进了她位于达卡的住宅。

But Paul Staniland, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace whose research focuses on South Asia, called that a more “mundane” challenge than it might once have been, and said India’s growing economic might was an important reason for that.

但以南亚为研究重点的芝加哥大学和卡内基国际和平基金会的政治学家保罗·斯坦尼兰德说,这是一个比以往可能更加“平常”的挑战,并表示,印度不断增长的经济实力是其中的一个重要原因。

“India’s neighbors are certainly interested in autonomy from India and having the option to engage with China and other outside states. But India is a massive economic and political presence that all governments have to at least do business with,” Mr. Staniland said.

“印度的邻国们当然对不受印度影响的自治感兴趣,想有与中国和其他外部国家接触的选择。但印度是一个庞大的经济和政治存在,所有国家的政府都必须至少与其打交道,”斯坦尼兰德说。

He added that some of India’s regional relationships were now characterized by “a restrained and respectful posture from Delhi combined with tangible efforts to cooperate,” echoing a point made by Ms. Rao. That approach, he said, “limits nationalist backlash in these neighboring states while creating incentives to work together.”

他还表示,印度在一些区域关系上的做法现在带有“德里采取克制和尊重的态度,在合作上做出切实努力”的特点,这与拉奥琪的观点相呼应。斯坦尼兰德说,这种做法“降低了这些邻国的民族主义抵制情绪,同时制造了合作的动力”。

India’s current relationship with Sri Lanka is one example.

印度与斯里兰卡目前的关系就是一个例子。

After the island nation’s civil war ended in 2009, China established a huge presence there, bankrolling the lavish development projects of a populist president. Officials in Colombo, even ones sympathetic to India, complained that New Delhi’s outreach was slow and bureaucratic by comparison.

斯里兰卡的内战于2009年结束后,中国曾在那里建立了巨大的影响力,为该国民粹主义总统耗资巨大的发展项目提供资金。科伦坡的官员,甚至是同情印度的官员也都抱怨说,相比之下,新德里在扩大与斯里兰卡的关系上行动缓慢,官僚作风严重。

Sri Lanka’s economic collapse two years ago, largely caused by mismanagement and reckless spending, changed that perspective. China was seen as conspicuously absent, and it was hesitant about renegotiating the terms of Sri Lanka’s debt. India seized the opportunity, stepping in with $4 billion in various forms of support.

两年前,主要是因为管理不善和不计后果的支出,斯里兰卡的经济崩溃了,这让人们的看法发生了改变。在大家眼里,中国明显缺席,而且不愿意与斯里兰卡重新谈判债务条款。印度抓住了这个机会,以各种形式为斯里兰卡提供了40亿美元的支持。

09India cash 02 bmzg master1050印度向斯里兰卡科伦坡运送的一批援助物资,摄于2022年。斯里兰卡经济崩溃后,印度已提供了40亿美元的援助。

Its change of approach was even more visible on the political front. Once it became clear that Sri Lanka’s old guard, including politicians close to India, had been discredited by the economic collapse, Mr. Modi’s government began warming up to other players.

印度做法的改变在政治方面更为明显。斯里兰卡的元老派(包括与印度关系密切的政客)因经济崩溃在国内失去信誉后,莫迪政府开始向其他政客示好。

Months before the September presidential election, it hosted Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of a small leftist party with an anti-India past. He seemed best positioned to ride the public’s anger into office, and both sides clearly wanted to overcome that history. When Mr. Dissanayke won a comfortable victory last month, India’s top diplomat in Colombo was there within hours to congratulate him.

在斯里兰卡9月举行总统大选数月之前,印度曾接待阿努拉·库马拉·迪萨纳亚克,此人领导的小政党有反印度的历史。他似乎最有可能被公众的愤怒情绪推上台,而且,双方显然都想克服那段历史。上个月,迪萨纳亚克在选举中轻松获胜后,印度驻科伦坡的最高级别外交官在几个小时里就到场向他表示了祝贺。

Ms. Rao said India’s traditional ties with its neighbors, combined with its growing financial resources, would serve it well in its competition with China.

拉奥琪说,印度与邻国的传统关系和不断增长的财政资源将有利于印度与中国的竞争。

“China continues to flex a lot of economic muscle, there’s no doubt,” Ms. Rao said. “But China, I think, has not really demonstrated its capacity to be the kind of first responder that India is when it comes to crisis situations that face our neighbors. And that, I think, is a very critical factor.”

“中国继续显示强大的经济实力,这毫无疑问,”拉奥琪说。 “但我认为,在我们的邻国遇到危机时,中国没有真正像印度那样以第一反应者的姿态出现。而那是我认为的一个非常关键的因素。”

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