China’s coast guard ships have swarmed and collided with Philippine boats. They have doused Philippine vessels with powerful water cannons. Chinese crew members have slashed inflatable crafts, blared sirens and flashed high-powered lasers at Filipino troops.

中国的海警船蜂拥而至，与菲律宾船只相撞。他们用威力强大的水炮向菲律宾船只发射。中国船员刺破菲方的充气艇，鸣响警笛，并向菲律宾军队发射高功率激光。

As China pushes to dominate the South China Sea, it is increasingly willing to use force to drive out the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States. In recent months, China’s tactics have damaged Philippine boats and injured personnel, and raised fears of a superpower showdown in the strategic waterway.

随着中国努力在南海占据主导地位，它越来越愿意使用武力驱逐美国的条约盟友菲律宾。近几个月来，中国的战术已经对菲律宾船只造成了破坏，并造成人员受伤，同时也引发了对超级大国在这个战略水道上对抗的担忧。

A New Flashpoint

一个新爆发点

For months, the latest target of China’s power play was a Philippine coast guard ship, the Teresa Magbanua. The video above was taken by the crew of that ship, as a Chinese coast guard vessel collided into it late last month.

几个月来，中国权力博弈的最新目标是菲律宾海岸警卫队的“特雷莎·马格巴努亚”号巡逻舰。上方的视频是上月底一艘中国海警船与该船相撞时该船的船员拍摄的。

The episode was one of four confrontations between the two countries’ vessels, in just two weeks. The encounters were not only becoming more frequent, but they were also taking place in a new location — Sabina Shoal, a resource-rich atoll close to the Philippine mainland.

这是两国船只在短短两周内发生的四次对峙之一。这种情况不仅变得越来越频繁，而且发生在一个新的地点——萨比纳浅滩（中国称仙宾礁。——译注），一个靠近菲律宾大陆的资源丰富的环礁。

The two countries had in earlier months been facing off near another atoll in the disputed Spratly Islands, the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese ships regularly harass Philippine boats trying to resupply sailors stationed on a beached warship. Now, their feud has expanded.

前几个月，两国一直在另一个有争议的南沙群岛环礁——第二托马斯浅滩（中国称仁爱礁。——译注）附近对峙，中国船只经常在那里骚扰菲律宾船只，后者试图为搁浅在此处的一艘军舰上的水手提供补给。现在，他们的争端范围已扩大了。

注：事件发生地点是根据菲律宾和中国海警船只播报的位置估算得出。其他工具包括激光、道具、斧头和石头。

The Philippines wants to control Sabina Shoal, an unoccupied atoll inside its exclusive economic zone. Sabina Shoal, which lies just 86 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan and over 600 miles from China, is near an area rich in oil deposits, and on routes Manila considers crucial for trade and security.

菲律宾希望控制萨比纳浅滩，这是其专属经济区内一个无人居住的环礁。萨比纳浅滩距菲律宾巴拉望省仅138公里，距离中国超过805公里，靠近一个石油储量丰富的地区，并且处于马尼拉认为对贸易和安全至关重要的航道上。

“A hostile China would be able to strangle our maritime trade with the rest of Asia and most of the world from Sabina Shoal,” said Jay Batongbacal, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines. Sabina Shoal would make “a good staging ground for vessels that will interfere with Philippine maritime activities,” he said.

“一个怀有敌意的中国能够通过萨比纳浅滩扼杀我们与亚洲其他地区以及世界大部分地区的海上贸易，”菲律宾大学的海洋安全专家杰伊·巴通巴卡尔说。萨比纳浅滩将成为“干扰菲律宾海上活动的船只的一个良好集结地”。

Manila anchored the Teresa Magbanua, one of its largest coast guard ships, at the Sabina Shoal in April to try to stop China from what the Philippines sees as efforts to try to build an island there.

今年4月，菲律宾将其最大的海岸警卫队船只之一“特雷莎·马格巴努亚”号停泊在萨比纳浅滩，试图阻止中国的行动，菲律宾认为中国要在那里造岛。

The Philippine Coast Guard has pointed to piles of crushed and dead corals apparently dumped on the shoal as signs of Chinese land reclamation under way. China has denied the accusation. But the building and fortifying of artificial islands is a key part of how China has asserted its claims over contested waters hundreds of miles from its coast.

菲律宾海岸警卫队指出，可以看到成堆的碎珊瑚和死珊瑚被倾倒在浅滩上，这是中国正在填海造地的迹象。中国否认了这一指控。但是，建造和加固人工岛屿是中国对距其海岸数百上千公里的争议水域提出主权主张的一个关键部分。

China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, says its tactics are needed to defend its sovereignty. Beijing has rejected a ruling by an international tribunal in 2016 that China’s sweeping claim to the waters had no legal basis.

中国对几乎整个南海都提出了主权主张，并称其采取的手段是捍卫主权所必需的。北京拒绝接受一个国际法庭在2016年做出的裁决，即中国对该海域的全面主权主张没有法律依据。

China accused the Philippines of trying to permanently occupy Sabina Shoal by parking the coast guard vessel on it, just as it had grounded the warship at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing even sent tugboats to Sabina Shoal, which some read as a threat to tow the Philippine ship away.

中国指责菲律宾试图将海岸警卫船停泊在萨比纳浅滩，以达到永久占领该地区的目的，就像它在第二托马斯浅滩上搁浅军艇一样。北京甚至派遣拖船前往萨比纳浅滩，有人认为这是在威胁将菲律宾船只拖走。

China has not resorted to guns. Rather, it is using what military theorists call gray zone tactics, aggressive moves that fall short of inciting all-out war. That includes imposing blockades, blasting water cannons and sailing dangerously close.

中国目前没有诉诸武力。它正在使用军事理论家所说的灰色地带战术，即不足以引发全面战争的咄咄逼人的举动。这包括实施封锁、发射高压水炮和危险的接近航行。

But the moves can still cause damage: The recent collision between Chinese and Philippine boats, for instance, left a three-foot hole on the Teresa Magbanua, as well as another Philippine vessel.

但这些举动仍然会造成损害：例如，最近发生的中国和菲律宾船只相撞，给“特雷莎·马格巴努亚”号和另一艘菲律宾船只上留下了一个约90厘米的洞。

“If the Philippines insists on occupying more shoals, China will have no choice but to use all available measures,” said Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based research group. “There is no limit.”

“如果菲律宾执意要去占新的无人岛礁，那中方没有选择，会采取一切可以采取的手段，”北京的研究团体“南海战略态势感知计划”主任胡波说。“这个上不封顶。”

On Sunday, after months of pressure from China, the Philippines said that the Teresa Magbanua had returned to port in Palawan. The Philippine statement sought to cast the move as following the accomplishment of the boat’s mission.

周日，在中国几个月的施压后，菲律宾表示，“特雷莎·马格巴努亚”号已返回巴拉望港。菲律宾的声明试图将这一举动描述为这艘船完成了任务。

But it nodded to the challenges of remaining in the face of a Chinese blockade that prevented the ship from being resupplied, saying the crew had been “surviving on diminished daily provisions” and that some needed medical care.

但它也承认面对中国封锁的挑战，这艘船无法获得补给，称船员“依靠匮乏的日常补给生存”，有些人需要医疗护理。

The Philippines said the vessel had suffered structural damage from being rammed by the Chinese coast guard, but indicated that the boat would return after undergoing repairs.

菲律宾表示，该船因被中国海警船撞击出现了结构性损坏，但将在维修后返回。

Tensions on the Rise

紧张局势升级

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has taken on a more muscular approach against China than his predecessor did. He has beefed up the country’s alliance with the United States and invited journalists to join resupply missions at sea to highlight China’s actions.

菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯对中国采取了比前任更强硬的态度。他加强了与美国的联盟，并邀请记者参加海上补给任务，以强调中国的行动。

China has called the United States “the biggest troublemaker stirring up unrest in the South China Sea.” Mr. Hu, the expert in Beijing, said that China has been compelled to use heavier-handed tactics because diplomacy with the Marcos administration has failed.

中国称美国是“南海稳定的最大破坏者”。北京的专家胡波表示，由于北京对马科斯政府的外交努力失败，中国被迫采取了强硬的策略。

With both sides digging in, they are tangling with each other more often and more aggressively.

随着双方僵持不下，它们之间的冲突变得越来越频繁和激进。

In one confrontation in June, China’s coast guard used axes, tear gas and knives to harass Philippine troops on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese sailors punctured Philippine military boats and seized their equipment, including guns.

在今年6月的一次对峙中，中国海警使用斧头、催泪瓦斯和刀具，骚扰前往仁爱礁执行补给任务的菲律宾军队。中国船员扎破菲律宾的军用船只，收走了包括枪支在内的装备。

Eight Filipino soldiers were hurt, including one who lost a finger. The Philippine military called it the “most aggressive” Chinese action in recent history.

八名菲律宾士兵受伤，其中一人失去了一根手指。菲律宾军方称这是中国近年来“最具侵略性”的行动。

That episode on June 17 made clear that tensions needed to be dialed down. The two sides briefly came to a “provisional agreement” on the Second Thomas Shoal, and the Philippines was able to conduct a resupply mission at the end of July. But officials from both countries have disputed the details of the agreement, raising questions about how long it will last.

6月17日的事件清楚地表明，需要缓和紧张局势。双方就第二托马斯浅滩短暂达成“临时协议”，菲律宾得以在7月底执行补给任务。但两国官员都对协议的细节提出了质疑，这让人怀疑协议能持续多久。

“China’s overarching strategy is to dominate the South China Sea. We should not expect the de-escalation to last,” said Rommel Ong, a professor at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila and a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy. “Unless they attain that objective, their coercive actions will wax and wane depending on the situation.”

“中国的总体战略是主导南海。我们不应指望局势的缓和会持续下去，”马尼拉雅典耀政大学教授、菲律宾海军退役海军少将隆美尔·翁说。“除非他们达到这一目标，否则他们的胁迫行动将随着局势的变化而时好时坏。”

Since October, the Chinese coast guard has used water cannons against Philippine ships more regularly than it likely ever has in the long-running dispute. Collisions have also become more common.

在这场旷日持久的争端中，自去年10月以来，中国海警对菲律宾船只使用水炮的频率可能比任何时候都要高。碰撞也变得更加常见。

Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines via Facebook

Whenever the Philippines has attempted to sail to disputed atolls, ships from the Chinese coast guard, maritime militia, and navy have rapidly confronted them.