It is the enduring paradox of politics in Thailand.

这是泰国政治中经久不衰的悖论。

By several measures, it appears democratic — it is a constitutional monarchy that holds regular, competitive elections with high voter turnout and a young generation that is politically active. In practice, analysts say, the country is beholden to an unelected establishment comprising the powerful military, judiciary and the royal family.

从几个方面来看，它似乎是民主的——它是一个君主立宪制国家，定期举行有激烈竞争的选举，选民投票率高，年轻一代在政治上很活跃。但分析人士指出，实际上，这个国家受制于一个不经选举产生的体制，由强大的军队、司法机构和王室组成。

Thailand has experienced more than a dozen coups since absolute monarchy ended in 1932. This constant tussle between movements to create democratic reform and the power of the old guard has created a decades-long cycle of instability.

自1932年君主专制结束以来，泰国经历了十多次政变。推动民主改革的运动与守旧势力之间不断争斗，造成了长达数十年的动荡循环。

2006年，泰国军方在他信·钦那瓦身处国外期间夺取了曼谷的控制权。

Few people know this as intimately as the Shinawatra family, which has been at the center of the most dramatic moments in Thai politics in the past 20 years. On Friday, Paetongtarn Shinawatra will be the latest prime minister to have her fate decided by the Constitutional Court.

最了解这一点的莫过于钦那瓦家族，在过去20年里，泰国政坛最动荡的时刻，他们始终处于风暴中心。星期五，佩通坦·钦那瓦将成为最新一位由宪法法院决定命运的总理。

Here’s what you need to know.

以下是你需要了解的信息。

One Powerful Court

强大的法院

The Constitutional Court has tended to deliver rulings that produce outcomes seen to be broadly aligned with the interests of the establishment, according to Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow with the Thailand Studies Program at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

根据新加坡尤索夫伊沙研究所泰国研究项目的访问学者纳蓬·贾图斯里皮塔克的说法，宪法法院的裁决往往产生与建制派利益大体一致的结果。

This stems from the court’s identity and its makeup. The court has come to be seen by conservatives as “a moral vanguard protecting Thailand’s pillar institutions against what it perceives as democratic excesses,” Mr. Napon said.

这源于法院的身份定位及其构成。纳蓬说，保守派将该法院视为“道德先锋，保护泰国的支柱机构不受其所认为的过度民主之害”。

宪法法院的裁决往往符合泰国军方和王室势力的利益。

“This identity, rather than the rule of law, has become the main foundation of the court’s legitimacy and the basis on which it justifies its interventions in Thai politics,” he said.

“这种身份，而不是法治原则，成为该法院合法性的主要基础，并成为法院干预泰国政治的理由，”他说。

Mr. Napon added that most of the current judges and past judges were appointed or had their tenure extended under military-led, conservative-leaning governments. “This means that the court’s tendency to side with establishment interests in its rulings is already baked into its DNA.”

纳蓬还表示，现任及历任法官大多由军政府主导的保守派政府任命或延长任期。“这意味着法院在裁决中倾向于维护既得利益集团，这一点早已嵌入其基因之中。”

Four Prime Ministers Ousted

四位总理被罢黜

Every prime minister brought before the Constitutional Court — except for Prayuth Chan-ocha, a general who seized power in a coup — has been removed. Since 2008, four leaders have been ousted — all of them linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, former premier and Ms. Paetongtarn’s father, and his political parties.

除了通过政变中夺权的将军巴育·占奥差之外，所有被提交宪法法院审理的总理都被免职。自2008年以来，已有四位领导人被赶下台，他们都与前总理他信·钦那瓦（佩通坦·钦那瓦的父亲）及其政党有关。

In 2008, a Thaksin ally, Samak Sundaravej, was removed after the court ruled that he violated the constitution by continuing to host a television cooking show and receiving a small payment for it while serving as prime minister. Months after, the court removed Mr. Samak’s successor, Somchai Wongsawat, and dissolved Mr. Somchai’s political party for electoral fraud.

2008年，他信的盟友沙马·顺达卫在担任总理期间继续主持一档电视烹饪节目，并因此获得少量报酬，法院裁定沙马违反宪法，他因此被免职。几个月后，法院罢免了沙马的继任者颂猜·旺沙瓦，并以选举舞弊为由解散了颂猜的政党。

前总理兼人民力量党领袖沙马·顺达卫于2008年因法院裁决被罢免职务。

In 2014, Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was removed on charges of abuse of power. The court found her guilty of unlawfully transferring the head of the National Security Council to the post of adviser to the prime minister in 2011. This ruling came just before the military coup that overthrew her government.

2014年，他信的妹妹英拉·钦那瓦因被控滥用职权而被免职。法院认定她在2011年非法将国家安全委员会主席调任为总理顾问。这项裁决是在她的政府被军事政变推翻之前做出的。

Last year, Srettha Thavisin was ousted for violating ethics rules after the court found that he had breached the constitution by appointing a cabinet minister who had previously served a jail sentence for a contempt-of-court conviction.

去年，赛塔·他威信因有违道德操守而被免职，此前法院认定他任命一名曾因藐视法庭罪入狱服刑的内阁部长，从而违反了宪法。

111 Political Parties Dissolved

111个政党遭解散

Since its establishment in 1997, Thailand’s Constitutional Court has dissolved 111 political parties — many of them popular, pro-democracy parties.

泰国宪法法院自1997年成立以来已经解散了111个政党，其中许多是受欢迎的亲民主政党。

The court has dissolved three political parties that were either founded or linked to Mr. Thaksin. It disbanded the Thai Rak Thai Party in 2007 and the People’s Power Party a year later, ruling in both instances that they committed electoral fraud.

其中三个被解散的政党要么由他信创立，要么与他信有关。2007年，泰国政府解散了泰爱泰党，一年后又解散了人民力量党，并裁定这两党在选举中存在舞弊行为。

In 2019, the Thai Raksa Chart Party, a party linked to Mr. Thaksin, was dissolved for “acting in a manner hostile to the constitutional monarchy” after it nominated a princess for prime minister.

2019年，与他信有关联的泰国爱国党在提名一名公主为总理后，因“以敌视君主立宪的方式行事”而被解散。

2023年泰国暖武里府的前进党支持者。

In 2020, the Future Forward Party, which performed surprisingly well in the 2019 election, was dissolved on charges of taking an illegal loan from its leader. The ruling led to a 10-year ban from politics for its executives.

2020年，在2019年选举中表现惊人的未来前进党因被指控从其领导人那里非法借款而解散。这一裁决导致该党高层被禁止参与政治10年。

Last year, the Move Forward Party, the successor of the Future Forward Party and the winner of the 2023 election, was disbanded for its campaign to amend the country’s harsh royal defamation law, which the court deemed as an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.

去年，未来前进党的继任者、2023年大选的赢家——前进党被解散，原因是该党试图修改该国严厉的王室诽谤法律，法院认为这是企图推翻君主立宪制。