2025年7月8日
China has long been Taiwan’s most important trading partner, the main buyer of its exports and the place where many of its companies make their products. China is also Taiwan’s greatest threat and claims that the island democracy is part of its territory.
长期以来,中国一直是台湾最重要的贸易伙伴,是台湾出口产品的主要买家,也是台湾许多企业的产品生产地。同时中国也是台湾最大的威胁,宣称这个民主岛屿是其领土的一部分。
Now, Taiwan’s ruling political party says it wants to do more to dismantle the commercial ties that for decades have propelled Taiwan’s economic growth.
现在,台湾执政党表示,希望采取更多措施来减少两者的商业联系,而正是这种联系在过去数十年助推了台湾经济的发展。
President Lai Ching-te is calling for companies that make semiconductors — Taiwan’s main industry — to stop buying from and selling to China. Mr. Lai has said Taiwanese firms, which make the majority of the world’s advanced computer chips, should instead embrace a supply chain that involves only companies from democratic countries.
台湾总统赖清德呼吁台湾主要产业——半导体制造公司停止与中国的交易往来。赖清德表示,台湾企业制造了全球大多数的先进芯片,因此应该建立一个只由民主国家企业组成的供应链。
Last month, Taiwan’s government told Taiwanese businesses that they would need licenses to sell products to two of China’s most important tech companies: the telecommunications giant Huawei and SMIC, formally the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation. Both are key to China’s drive to make its own chips.
上个月,台湾政府告诉台湾企业,它们需要获得许可才能向中国两家最重要的科技公司销售产品:电信巨头华为和中芯国际。这两者都是中国推动芯片自主生产的关键。
台湾总统赖清德加强了对中国威胁的警告。
The move aligns with Washington’s long-running goal of cutting off China’s access to advanced chips. It also underscores how Taiwan is snared between the two superpowers. President Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on Taiwan, and dozens of other U.S. trading partners, as soon as this week.
此举与华盛顿长期以来的目标一致,即切断中国获得先进芯片的渠道。这也凸显了台湾是如何卷入两个超级大国博弈困境的。美国总统特朗普威胁最快将于本周对台湾和其他数十个美国贸易伙伴征收关税。
Taiwan’s ruling party wants to be seen in Washington as a reliable friend of the United States, “even if that means paying a short-term economic cost,” said Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, a think tank at Stanford University.
台湾执政党希望被华盛顿视为美国可靠的伙伴,“即使这意味着要付出短期的经济代价,”斯坦福大学智库胡佛研究所的研究员祁凯立(Kharis Templeman)说。
But Taiwan could pay a high cost for shifting its economy away from China.
但是,台湾经济与中国脱钩可能要付出高昂代价。
For decades, almost all foreign investment by Taiwanese companies went to China. Taiwan’s biggest companies, including the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, and the electronics giant Foxconn, grew on the strength of manufacturing investments in China and sales to Chinese companies.
几十年来,台湾企业几乎所有的对外投资都流向了中国。包括台积电和电子巨头富士康在内的台湾最大企业,都是依靠在中国的制造业投资和对中国企业的销售业绩不断壮大的。
台积电首席执行官魏哲家(右)3月在白宫宣布,该公司将为在美国的业务再投入1000亿美元。
Foxconn, which makes devices for Apple and Nvidia, produces a significant share of the world’s consumer electronics at its factories in central China, where it has benefited from years of government-backed infrastructure investment. The company’s founder, Terry Gou, ran for president in Taiwan in 2024.
为苹果和英伟达代工的富士康在中国中部的工厂生产的消费电子产品占全球很大份额。多年来,它受益于中国政府支持的基础设施投资。该公司创始人郭台铭曾在2024年竞选台湾总统。
Taiwan’s richest person, Barry Lam, built his fortune making laptops in China with his company, Quanta Computer. The Taiwanese food and beverage conglomerate Want Want depends on China for the majority of its sales. Its founder, Tsai Eng-meng, is a vocal supporter of China’s claims on Taiwan and runs pro-Beijing television stations and YouTube channels.
台湾首富林百里通过其公司广达电脑在中国生产笔记本电脑而发家致富。台湾食品饮料企业集团旺旺的大部分销售来自中国市场。它的创始人蔡衍明直言不讳地支持中国对台湾的主权主张,并经营着亲北京的电视台和YouTube频道。
The close ties between the two economies have been seen in Taiwan as a deterrent against China’s aggression, and a way for China to exert its influence over the island. The coupling cuts both ways.
两岸经济的紧密联系在台湾被视为对中国侵略行为的一种威慑,也是中国对台湾施加影响的一种方式。这种联系是双向的。
Over the last decade, some Taiwanese firms have begun to reconsider their dependence on China. In 2014, when Taiwan’s leaders proposed closer economic ties to China, thousands of Taiwanese people protested over fears of becoming too dependent on Beijing. The plan was ultimately shelved.
在过去的十年里,一些台湾公司开始重新考虑他们对中国的依赖。2014年,当台湾领导人提出与中国建立更紧密的经济联系时,数以千计的台湾人因担心变得过于依赖北京而上街抗议。这个计划最终被搁置了。
富士康位于中国中部的工厂生产着全球大部分电子产品。公司创始人郭台铭是台湾最富有的人之一,曾短暂竞选过总统。
The trade tensions and Covid-19 pandemic made Taiwanese businesses pull back further. Last year, just over 7 percent of Taiwan’s new foreign investment went to China, down from over 80 percent in 2010.
贸易紧张局势和新冠疫情使台湾企业进一步减少对中国的投资。去年,台湾新增对外投资中只有略高于7%流向中国,而在2010年,这个比例曾经超过80%。
Still, analysts say completely decoupling the two economies would be difficult. China remains the largest buyer of Taiwan’s exports, especially semiconductors.
尽管如此,分析人士表示,两岸经济完全脱钩将是困难的。中国仍然是台湾出口产品的最大买家,尤其是半导体。
At the same time, Taiwan depends on political and military support from the United States to help resist pressure from Beijing. Mr. Trump has demanded that Taiwan drastically raise its own military spending and accused Taiwan of stealing the lead in semiconductor manufacturing from the United States. Officials in Taiwan have committed to a slight increase in military spending, and TSMC said it would more than double its investments in the United States to $165 billion.
同时,台湾依靠美国的政治和军事支持来抵抗来自北京的压力。特朗普要求台湾大幅提高军费开支,并指责台湾从美国窃取了半导体制造业的领先地位。台湾官员已承诺略微增加军事开支,台积电表示,将把在美国的投资增加一倍以上,达到1650亿美元。
The sale of tech equipment to China is likely to be a continuing source of friction, and negotiation, for Taiwan in its dealings with the Trump administration.
向中国出售技术设备可能会成为台湾与特朗普政府之间摩擦和谈判的持续来源。
Last year, a chip made by TSMC ended up in a Huawei device despite U.S. export controls, angering officials in Washington. Taiwan’s addition of Huawei and SMIC to its restricted trade list is a step toward cutting off the business that has continued to flow to China.
去年,尽管美国实行出口管制,但台积电制造的芯片最终被用在了华为的设备上,这激怒了华盛顿的官员。台湾将华为和中芯国际列入限制贸易清单,是朝着切断继续流向中国的业务迈出的一步。
Despite the pressures pushing Taiwan further away, there are compelling forces drawing companies to China.
尽管种种压力使得台湾与中国渐行渐远,但仍有强大的吸引力促使企业前往中国发展。
几十年来,台湾企业的大部分对外投资都流向了中国。2018年,台湾领先的芯片制造商台积电在中国南京设厂。
Howard Yuan, 36, is a manager at Superb International in Shanghai, a garment manufacturer his family founded in Taiwan and expanded to China in the 1980s. He said it would be hard to replace China’s suppliers.
36岁的袁皓天是上海山珀公司的经理。他的家族在台湾创办了这家服装制造商,并于上世纪80年代将业务扩展到中国。他说,中国的供应商难以取代。
And Ruby Chen, 32, said China was an easier place to start a business than Taiwan. For the past three years, she has run a wellness company focused on traditional Chinese medicine in Shandong, China.
32岁的陈玟婷说,在中国创业比在台湾容易。在过去的三年里,她在中国山东经营一家以中医为主的保健公司。
“It’s very suitable for beginners in entrepreneurship,” said Ms. Chen, who hosts boot camps for Taiwanese businesspeople who want to start companies in Shandong. “I was just a working-class girl from an ordinary family, with a bit of savings,” she said.
“这里很适合创业小白,”陈玟婷说,她为想在山东创业的台湾商人举办训练营。她说:“我就是一个一般的小家庭出来的小资女,身上有一点存款。”