
China should allow its currency to strengthen and rely more on domestic consumer spending instead of ever-rising exports, International Monetary Fund officials said on Wednesday in Beijing at the end of a 10-day visit to China.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)官员周三在北京结束为期十天的访华行程时表示,中国应允许人民币升值,并更多地依赖国内消费者支出,而不是不断增长的出口。
The cautiously worded suggestion that a stronger currency may be needed represents a subtle shift for the fund. The I.M.F. has previously suggested that China should allow more flexibility in the value of the currency, the renminbi, while staying mostly silent on whether it believes the currency should strengthen or weaken against the dollar and other currencies.
基金组织以谨慎措辞提出“可能需要更强势货币”的建议,代表着这一机构立场的微妙转变。此前,IMF建议中国应允许人民币汇率有更大的灵活性,但基本未明确表态是否认为人民币应对美元及其他货币升值或贬值。
The visit to China by the I.M.F., the first of its kind in 18 months, came as the Washington-based multilateral institution finds itself increasingly caught between the Trump administration and the Chinese government.
这是18个月来IMF首次访问中国,而此行正值这一总部设在华盛顿的多边机构日益发现,自己正夹在特朗普政府与中国政府之间。
Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the fund, said at a news conference that the I.M.F. was not asking the Chinese government to intervene in markets to make sure the currency strengthens.
该机构总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在新闻发布会上表示,IMF并未要求中国政府干预市场以确保人民币升值。
Ms. Georgieva did not detail how she expected the renminbi to appreciate without government action, and she repeated previous calls for the currency to be flexible. The Chinese government had no immediate response to the I.M.F.’s assessment, although its response will be included when the fund issues a full report in a couple months.
她未详细说明在政府不采取行动的情况下如何实现人民币升值,并重申了此前关于增强汇率灵活性的呼吁。中国政府未立即对IMF的评估作出回应,但其回应将出现在IMF几个月后发布的完整报告中。
American and European officials hold considerable sway over the governance of the I.M.F., which was established at the end of World War II to police stability in currencies and international finance. Today 191 nations are members.
美国和欧洲官员对IMF的治理拥有相当大的影响力。该组织成立于二战结束之际,旨在维持货币和国际金融的稳定,目前拥有191个成员国。
The Trump administration has pressured the I.M.F. to shift from its recent focus on climate change to return to its original mission. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent installed his former chief of staff, Dan Katz, as Ms. Georgieva’s top deputy in October.
特朗普政府已向国际货币基金组织施压,要求其从近年来对气候变化的关注中抽身,回归其最初使命。美国财长斯科特·贝森特10月任命自己的前幕僚长丹·卡茨为格奥尔基耶娃的第一副手。
“In line with its core mandate, the I.M.F. needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distortive policies and opaque currency practices for many decades,” Mr. Bessent said in a speech in April.
贝森特在4月的一次演讲中说,“根据其核心使命,IMF需要点名批评像中国这样几十年来推行全球扭曲性政策、实行不透明货币做法的国家。”
Mr. Katz’s new role as first deputy managing director gives him responsibility for the fund’s inspection visits to member countries like the one to China.
卡茨出任第一副总裁后,负责IMF对成员国的例行评估访问,比如此次中国之行。
But China also has considerable leverage at the fund. The I.M.F. needs Beijing’s help in coping with severe debt problems in dozens of developing countries that have borrowed heavily from China and cannot afford repayments.
但中国在该机构中同样拥有相当大的影响力。IMF需要北京的帮助,以应对数十个发展中国家严重的债务问题——这些国家从中国大量借款,却无力偿还。
Ms. Georgieva said that the renminbi could appreciate in “real” terms, which means adjusted for inflation. With producer prices falling 2 percent a year in China and rising several percent a year elsewhere, the value of each renminbi may need to rise 5 percent or more a year against other currencies just to stay even in inflation-adjusted terms.
格奥尔基耶娃表示,人民币可以在“实际”意义上升值,也就是经通胀调整后的升值。由于中国的生产者价格每年下降约2%,而其他地区每年上涨几个百分点,人民币对其他货币每年可能需要升值5%或更多,才能在通胀调整后保持基本持平。
China’s weak currency has helped fuel the flood of its cheap exports globally, drawing criticism and tariffs by the United States, the European Union and other trading partners trying to protect their own industries. China reported on Monday that its trade surplus with the rest of the world had climbed past $1 trillion in the first 11 months of this year.
人民币疲软助推了中国廉价商品席卷全球市场,引发美国、欧盟等试图保护本国产业的贸易伙伴的批评与关税措施。中国本周一公布的数据显示,今年前11个月其全球贸易顺差已突破1万亿美元。
A stronger Chinese currency would make the country’s exports costlier and less competitive in foreign markets, while making imports more affordable for domestic consumers. But more expensive Chinese exports could push up prices for consumers in the United States and elsewhere.
人民币走强将推高中国出口产品的价格,削弱其在海外市场的竞争力,同时会让国内消费者更容易负担进口商品。但中国出口商品涨价也可能推高美国及其他国家的消费者物价。
Ms. Georgieva also called for the Chinese government, heavily indebted and facing shrinking tax revenues, to spend more money to help China’s consumers and to stabilize the country’s real estate sector.
格奥尔基耶娃还呼吁背负沉重债务、税收收入下降的中国政府增加支出,以扶持国内消费并稳定房地产行业。
“It’s an unexpected role reversal that the I.M.F. — patron saint of fiscal restraint — is nudging China toward a debt-fueled stimulus,” said Han Lin, the China country director for the Asia Group, a Washington consulting firm.
“IMF作为财政紧缩政策的守护者,却在推动中国通过举债刺激经济,这种角色反转出人意料,”华盛顿咨询公司亚洲集团中国区负责人林汉昇说。
A research paper last month by Brad Setser and Mark Sobel, two former U.S. Treasury officials, has drawn more attention to China’s currency from business leaders and economists outside the country. The pair pointed out that the I.M.F.’s own formula for currency valuation suggested that the renminbi was undervalued by at least 18 percent.
上月由前美国财政部官员布拉德·塞瑟和马克·索贝尔联合撰写的研究报告进一步引发了国际商界领袖和经济学家对中国汇率问题的关注。两人指出,按照国际货币基金组织自己的汇率估值公式,人民币至少被低估了18%。
Mr. Setser wrote in an email Wednesday that official Chinese data indicated that the country’s central bank and state-controlled commercial banks are on track to buy another $250 billion worth of foreign assets this year, effectively limiting the appreciation of the renminbi.
塞瑟周三在邮件中写道,中国官方数据显示,中国央行和国有商业银行今年预计将再购入2500亿美元外国资产,从而实质上限制了人民币的升值幅度。