
President Trump said on Tuesday that he found a last-minute offramp allowing him to delay his threat to obliterate Iran’s power grid and bridges, seizing on a proposal from Pakistan for a 14-day cease-fire that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz while Washington and Tehran tried to negotiate a peace deal.
特朗普总统周二表示,他找到了一个最后关头的退路,得以推迟摧毁伊朗电网和桥梁的威胁。他采纳了巴基斯坦提出的一项14天停火提议,内容包括在华盛顿和德黑兰试图谈判达成和平协议期间开放霍尔木兹海峡。
In a statement, Mr. Trump declared that at the request of Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, he decided to “hold off the destructive force being sent to Iran tonight.”
特朗普在声明中宣布,应巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫的请求,他决定“暂缓今晚向伊朗发动的毁灭性打击力量”。
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a veteran of past nuclear negotiations with the United States, said in a statement that if Israel and the United States halt their attacks, Iran will also suspend its “defensive operation” for two weeks. But he said “Iran’s Armed Forces” would retain control of the waterway. That would leave Iran in fundamental control of the passageway, and over the pace at which a huge backup of tankers would be allowed to deliver oil to Europe and Asia, helium to semiconductor plants around the world and fertilizer to farmers from Africa to Asia.
曾参与此前与美国核谈判的资深人士、伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在声明中表示,如果以色列和美国停止攻击,伊朗也将暂停其“防御行动”两周。但他称,“伊朗武装部队”将继续控制该水道。这意味着伊朗将从根本上掌握该通道,大量积压的油轮以什么样的速度向欧洲和亚洲输送石油、向全球半导体工厂输送氦气、向非洲及亚洲农户输送化肥,都将取决于伊朗。
For his part, Mr. Trump said the accord was “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” That suggested that Mr. Trump backed down before he heard from the leadership in Tehran, which until now has insisted it would open the waterway only if it had in hand a complete peace deal. Iran insisted that final agreement must include reparations for war damages and a complete lifting of Western sanctions on its economy.
特朗普则表示,该协议“以伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即、安全开放霍尔木兹海峡为前提”。这表明特朗普在收到德黑兰领导层回应之前就已做出让步,而伊朗此前一直坚持,只有拿到完整的和平协议才会开放水道。伊朗坚持,最终协议必须包括战争损失赔偿,以及全面解除西方对伊朗的经济制裁。
Left unresolved, at least for now, is the fate of 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium buried primarily at a site in Isfahan, or Mr. Trump’s demand that Iran limit the size and range of its now-depleted arsenal of missiles. And by reaching even a temporary cease-fire with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, he is essentially endorsing the legitimacy of its new government, five weeks after urging the Iranian people to overthrow it.
至少在目前,仍未解决的问题包括埋藏在伊朗伊斯法罕某处约440公斤的近武器级铀将如何处置,以及特朗普对伊朗导弹库规模与射程的限制要求(这个导弹库现已耗尽)。此外,哪怕与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队及其新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊只是达成临时停火,特朗普也等于在实际上承认了伊朗新政府的合法性——而就在五周前,他还在敦促伊朗民众推翻该政权。
Almost immediately the Iranians made claims that seemed to go far beyond anything the president said. Iran’s national security council, in a statement, said the country had been victorious over Israel and the United States, and maintained that the United States had accepted all of Iran’s peace plan, including guarantees not to attack Iran, and Iran’s control over the strait.
伊朗方面几乎立即发表了声明,其内容似乎远超总统所言。伊朗国家安全委员会在一份声明中称,伊朗已战胜以色列和美国,并坚称美国接受了伊朗的全部和平方案,包括不攻击伊朗的保证以及伊朗对海峡的控制权。
Mr. Trump had been under increasing pressure to find a way out of a confrontation after setting an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for the strait to open, and after declaring on social media early Tuesday that if he is defied, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” It was a classic example of Mr. Trump’s chaotic, high-pressure negotiating style, where he creates a crisis and then uses his leverage to strike a deal.
特朗普此前设定了美国东部时间晚8点为海峡开放最后期限,并于周二早些时候在社交媒体上宣称,他的要求若遭违抗,“今晚,整个文明将消亡,永不复返”。此后他面临越来越大的压力,需要找到化解对抗的出路。这是特朗普混乱、高压式谈判风格的典型例证——先制造危机,再利用自身筹码达成协议。
In this case Mr. Trump appeared desperate for a way to escape his own threats and rhetoric, and to engineer a Pakistani proposal that he would then sign on to. Just two days after calling the Iranian leadership “crazy bastards” and telling them they would soon be “living in hell,” he praised them on Tuesday as “a different, smarter, and less radicalized” class of leaders, predicting “something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
这一次,特朗普似乎急于摆脱自己放出的威胁和言论,促成一项由巴基斯坦提出、随后由他本人背书的方案。他曾说伊朗领导层是“疯狂的混蛋”,扬言他们很快将会“生活在地狱里”;两天后的周二,他却称赞对方是“不一样、更聪明、不那么激进”的领导层,并预测“可能会发生什么革命性的好事,谁知道呢?”
The temporary cease-fire does nothing to address the fundamental issues that led to the outbreak of the war on Feb. 28: Iran’s refusal to give up its stockpile of nuclear fuel; American and Israeli demands that it limit the size and range of its missile arsenal; and Iranian demands that it retain the right to enrich uranium and, more recently, for war reparations.
此次临时停火并未解决导致2月28日战争爆发的根本问题:伊朗拒绝放弃核燃料储备;美以要求伊朗限制导弹库规模与射程;伊朗则要求保留铀浓缩权利,且近期还提出战争赔偿要求。
But for the first time in nearly six weeks of intense fighting, it offers the possibility of resumed negotiations, and some respite for Iranians whose homes, factories and schools have been bombed and for Israelis who found their missile defenses could not guarantee their safety.
但这是近六周激烈冲突以来,双方首次有望重启谈判,也为家园、工厂和学校遭轰炸的伊朗民众,以及发现导弹防御系统无法保障自身安全的以色列民众带来了喘息空间。
The last-minute agreement was bound to relieve investors, and ease a growing crisis in Asia, where some nations are reliant on oil coming through the strait for 80 percent of their supplies. Once a cease-fire is in place, it would put an added burden on Mr. Trump to break it again, or allow Israel to do so.
这份最后时刻的协议势必会缓解投资者焦虑,并缓和亚洲日益加剧的危机——部分亚洲国家80%的石油供应依赖经霍尔木兹海峡运输。停火一旦生效,特朗普若再次破坏协议或默许以色列破坏协议,将面临更大压力。
But it also raises the possibility that the war will end — or at least come to an uneasy truce — without Mr. Trump having accomplished many of the goals he laid out.
但这也带来一种可能:这场战争或将结束——或至少达成不稳定的停火——而特朗普也并未实现他此前提出的诸多目标。