When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, last visited Europe’s formerly communist east in 2016, the president of the Czech Republic hosted him for a flag-bedecked, three-day state visit and offered his country as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for Chinese investment.

上一次，中国领导人习近平访问曾是共产主义国家的东欧地区时还是2016年。当时，他对捷克共和国进行了为期三天的国事访问，该国总统为他举行了声势浩大的欢迎仪式，并称捷克将是中国投资“不沉的航空母舰”。

That vessel has since sunk, scuppered by China’s support for Russia in the war in Ukraine and bitter disappointment over projects that never materialized. Also capsized are many of the high hopes that took hold across Eastern and Central Europe for a bonanza of Chinese money.

由于中国在俄乌战争中支持俄罗斯，以及对从未实现的项目的极度失望，那艘航母后来还是沉了。同样泡汤的还有东欧和中欧地区对中国巨额投资的厚望。

So when Mr. Xi returns to the region this week, after a visit to France, he will travel to Serbia and Hungary, two countries whose long-serving authoritarian leaders still offer a haven for China in increasingly turbulent political and economic waters.

所以本周，习近平在访问法国后再次来到东欧时，他将前往的是塞尔维亚和匈牙利。在政治和经济越来越动荡的环境下，长期领导这两个国家的专制领导人将为中国提供一个避风港。

“The Czechs, the Poles and nearly everyone else are really pissed at China because of the war,” said Tamas Matura, a foreign relations scholar at Corvinus University of Budapest. “But in Hungary that is not a problem, at least not for the government” of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Mr. Matura said.

“捷克人、波兰人，以及几乎所有其他人都因俄乌战争对中国非常厌烦，”布达佩斯科维努斯大学的外交关系学者陶马什·毛图拉说。“但在匈牙利，这不是问题，至少对（欧尔班·维克托）政府来说不是问题，”毛图拉说。

Nor is China’s Kremlin-friendly stand on the war in Ukraine a problem for President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, who, like Mr. Orban, has maintained warm relations with Russia and China while securing billions of dollars in Chinese investment.

对塞尔维亚总统武契奇来说，中国在俄乌战争问题上亲克里姆林宫的立场也不是问题，他跟欧尔班一样，一直与俄罗斯和中国保持着友好关系，从中国获得了数十亿美元的投资。

In an interview this week with Chinese state television, Mr. Vucic gave a foretaste of the flattery that will dominate Mr. Xi’s visit: “There are thousands of things that we can and should learn from our Chinese friends,” the Serbian president said.

武契奇在本周接受中国国家电视台采访时，提前展示了该国对习近平到访的主要态度——阿谀奉承：“有成千上万的事情我们可以合作，可以向我们的中国朋友学习，”塞尔维亚总统说。

“Taiwan is China — full stop,” he added.

“台湾就是中国的，不容置疑，”他还说。

Milos Zeman, the Czech president who welcomed Mr. Xi in 2016, was replaced last year by a former senior NATO general, Petr Pavel. Mr. Pavel has angered the Chinese government by talking with the president of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory, and saying in an interview that China “is not a friendly country.” Chinese investment in the Czech Republic has slowed to a trickle.

2016年欢迎习近平来访的捷克总统米洛什·泽曼已于去年卸任，继任者是退役北约高级将领彼得·帕维尔。由于与台湾总统进行过对话，帕维尔已激怒了中国政府，他还曾在某次采访中表示中国“不是一个友好国家”。中国声称台湾是其领土的一部分。中国对捷克的投资已少到微乎其微。

习近平即将访问塞尔维亚之际，贝尔格莱德一处地标建筑上挂出了中国国旗。

Meantime, Chinese money has poured into Hungary and Serbia, cementing close ties underpinned by a shared wariness of the United States.

与此同时，中国的资金涌入匈牙利和塞尔维亚，巩固了中国与这个两个国家的密切关系，这种关系的基础是对美国的共同警惕。

China’s showcase infrastructure project in the region, a high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest, has been slowed by regulatory and other issues. Of the about 200 miles of track planned, only about 60 miles are operating after five years of work — a sluggish pace for a project that Beijing sees as a key part of the Belt and Road infrastructure program, Mr. Xi’s pet foreign policy initiative.

中国在该地区的基础设施展示项目——连接布达佩斯和贝尔格莱德的高速铁路——由于监管和其他问题而进展缓慢。这条设计全长342公里的铁路开工五年后，只有约100公里已投入运营，这对中国来说是非常慢的施工速度，它将匈塞铁路视为“一带一路”基础设施计划的一个关键组成部分，“一带一路”是深受习近平重视的外交政策倡议。

But promised Chinese investment in other projects has raced ahead, totaling nearly $20 billion in Serbia, according to its minister of construction, transport and infrastructure, and totaling nearly as much in Hungary, including loans, the terms of which are secret.

但中国承诺的其他投资项目已在突飞猛进地发展，据塞尔维亚建设、交通和基础设施部部长称，中国在当地总投资已接近200亿美元。中国在匈牙利的总投资也接近这个数额，其中包括条款保密的贷款。

Ivana Karaskova, a Czech researcher at the Association for International Affairs, an independent research group in Prague, said Hungary and Serbia look to China “not only for economic gains but also to demonstrate to their domestic electorate that they pursue an independent policy.” That demonstrates to the European Union and the United States that “they are not the only game in town,” Ms. Karaskova said.

布拉格的独立研究机构国际事务协会的捷克研究员伊万娜·卡拉斯科娃说，匈牙利和塞尔维亚依赖中国“不仅是为了经济好处，也是为了向国内选民显示它们奉行独立的政策”。同时向欧盟和美国展示，“它们不是唯一的选择，”卡拉斯科娃说。

China, she added, “understands this dynamic” and Mr. Xi will use it to try to reverse a steady souring of opinion on China in Europe, both among ordinary citizens and in institutions like the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union.

她补充说，中国“明白这种相互作用方式”，习近平将利用其来试图扭转欧洲对中国不断变坏的看法，这种看法在不仅存在于普通民众中，也存在于欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会等机构中。

A survey last year of Eastern and Central European countries by Globsec, a research group in Slovakia, found that “negative perceptions of Beijing have soared,” particularly in the Baltic States and the Czech Republic. Even in Hungary, only 26 percent of those surveyed had a positive view of Mr. Xi, compared with 39 percent with a negative view. The rest said they were undecided.

斯洛伐克研究组织Globsec去年对东欧和中欧国家进行的一项调查发现，“对中国的负面看法急剧上升”，尤其是在波罗的海国家和捷克共和国。就连在匈牙利，也只有26%的受访者对习近平持正面看法，相比之下，持负面看法的受访者比例达39%。其余的则表示尚未拿定主意。

But Hungary under Mr. Orban, no matter what the public thinks, has become a “safe political space” for Beijing, Mr. Matura said, and can be counted on to try to soften European Union policy on China and protect it from the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

但无论公众怎么想，欧尔班领导下的匈牙利已成为中国的“安全政治空间”，毛图拉说，中国能指望匈牙利来试图软化欧盟的对华政策，保护中国不受其对俄乌战争所持立场的影响。 

The merging of economic and geopolitical interests is particularly pronounced in Serbia, which aspires to join the European Union but has balked at joining the bloc in imposing sanctions on Russia and frustrated E.U. efforts to broker a settlement over Kosovo. A former Serbian territory, Kosovo declared itself an independent state after a NATO bombing campaign, a status that Serbia, supported by Russia and China, has refused to accept.

经济和地缘政治利益的合并在塞尔维亚尤为明显，该国渴望加入欧盟，但不愿加入欧盟对俄罗斯实施的制裁，该国还挫败了欧盟为解决科索沃问题所做的努力。科索沃曾是塞尔维亚的一部分，北约在科索沃战争中轰炸了南斯拉夫之后，科索沃宣布自己为独立国家，但塞尔维亚一直拒绝接受，俄罗斯和中国都支持塞尔维亚的立场。

中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆在1999年的北约轰炸行动中被炸。图为使馆被炸后前来灭火的消防队员。

Mr. Xi arrives in Serbia from France on Tuesday — the 25th anniversary of a mistaken strike by NATO warplanes on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the 1999 bombing campaign. Three Chinese journalists were killed.

习近平已在周二从法国抵达塞尔维亚，那天是北约1999年轰炸南斯拉夫时误炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆、导致三名中国记者死亡的25周年纪念日。

That incident, which many in China believe was not an accident, created a “strong emotional bond between Serbs and Chinese,” said Aleksandar Mitic of the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Belgrade.

许多中国人认为使馆被炸不是意外事故，该事件“在塞尔维亚人和中国人之间建立了强有力的情感联系”，贝尔格莱德国际政治与经济研究所的亚历山大·米蒂奇说。

As part of a series of government-sanctioned events in Belgrade ahead of Mr. Xi’s visit, Serbian communists on Monday unfurled banners reading “Welcome President” and “Kosovo is Serbia — Taiwan is China” outside the Chinese Cultural Center in Belgrade, built on the site of the bombed embassy. They demanded that the street outside the center be renamed “Chinese Victims of NATO Aggression Street.”

习近平到来前，贝尔格莱德举行了一系列得到政府批准的活动，其中包括塞尔维亚共产党人周一在贝尔格莱德中国文化中心外的活动，他们拉出了写有“欢迎国家主席”、“科索沃属于塞尔维亚，台湾属于中国”的横幅。该中心建在被炸大使馆的原址，他们要求将中心外的街道改名为“在北约侵略中遇难中国人之街”。

Hungary, too, has bristled at what it sees as bullying by Washington and Brussels, despite its membership in NATO and the European Union, from which it has received billions of euros in aid.

匈牙利也对其认为是美国和欧盟的欺凌行为感到愤怒，尽管它是北约和欧盟成员，从欧盟获得了数十亿欧元的援助。

Mr. Orban’s main interest in China, however, is money and he hopes to turn Hungary, with help from Chinese investors, into a manufacturing hub for E.V.s, batteries and other new technologies.

但欧尔班对中国的主要兴趣是钱，他希望在中国投资者的帮助下将匈牙利变成电动汽车、电池和其他新技术的制造中心。

In just the past two years, China has committed to invest more than $10 billion in Hungary, most of it in ventures related to E.V.s — at a time when the European Union, worried about China’s growing dominance of the sector, is investigating whether Chinese E.V. manufacturers are unfairly subsidized and should be penalized with high tariffs.

仅在过去两年，中国已承诺对匈牙利进行逾100亿美元的投资，其中大部分都在电动汽车相关领域，恰在这个时候，由于担心中国在电动汽车行业日益增长的主导地位，欧盟正在调查中国的电动汽车制造商是否获得了不公平的补贴，并有可能对中国的电动汽车征收惩罚性的高额关税。

匈牙利东部正在建设一家为中国电动汽车生产电池的工厂。

BYD, China’s electric-vehicle juggernaut, announced in December that it would build an assembly plant in Hungary, its first production facility in Europe. Plans for a second, even bigger Chinese electric car factory in the country with investment from Great Wall Motor are expected to be announced during Mr. Xi’s visit on Wednesday and Thursday.

中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪已在去年12月宣布将在匈牙利建一个组装厂，这将是比亚迪在欧洲的第一个生产基地。由长城汽车投资兴建的第二家规模更大的中国电动汽车工厂的计划预计将在习近平周三和周四的访问期间宣布。

Those assembly lines will take years to build but, in the long run, will help protect Chinese E.V. manufacturers from any future efforts by the European Union to prevent China from dominating the market through tariffs.

这些汽车装配线将需要数年时间才能建成，但从长远来看，它们将有助于在今后保护中国电动汽车制造商不受欧盟通过关税阻止中国主导市场的尝试。

Tariffs imposed on imported Chinese electric cars would not apply to those assembled in Hungary, which can ship goods duty-free across the E.U., though they could hit parts imported from China to Hungarian plants.

对中国进口电动汽车征收的关税将不适用于在匈牙利组装的电动汽车，因为匈牙利能把货物免税销往欧盟各国，但从中国进口到匈牙利工厂的零部件可能会受到关税的影响。

Unlike in most of Europe where governments regularly change — a democratic churn that can upset Chinese investment plans based on close ties to a particular leader — Mr. Orban and Mr. Vucic have both been in power for more than a decade and show no sign of going anywhere.

欧洲大多数国家的政府经常会进行更迭，这种民主的更替会扰乱中国基于与特定领导人的密切关系的投资计划。不同于这些国家的是，欧尔班和武契奇都已执政十多年，而且没有任何会退下来的迹象。

“The Chinese feel comfortable in Hungary,” Mr. Matura said. “The public might not be very fond of China but the government is.”

“中国人在匈牙利感觉很舒服，”毛图拉说。“虽然公众可能不太喜欢中国，但政府很喜欢。”

The start of construction last year on an enormous $7.8 billion Chinese battery factory in eastern Hungary stirred protests from local residents but applause from Mr. Orban’s government.

去年，一座耗资78亿美元的中国电池工厂在匈牙利东部动工后，引发了当地居民的抗议，但得到了欧尔班政府的称赞。

President Vucic’s government has also brushed aside public anger about a huge Chinese-owned mining venture in southern Serbia that environmental activists and residents say is poisoning the water supply.

武契奇的政府也没有理睬公众对塞尔维亚南部一家中资大型采矿企业的愤怒，环保人士和居民说该企业正在污染当地的供水系统。

塞尔维亚南部的一家中资采矿企业。该国与匈牙利一样，已从中国得到了数十亿美元的投资。

By visiting Hungary and Serbia, Mr. Xi, according to analysts, wants to show that while China may be down as an influential player in East and Central Europe, it is not yet out. And, they say, it indicates he has not given up on a Chinese diplomatic initiative known as 16+1, a grouping of China and formerly communist European countries built around Mr. Xi’s flagship Belt and Road program.

分析人士认为，通过访问匈牙利和塞尔维亚，习近平希望向世界表明，虽然中国在东欧和中欧的影响力也许在下降，但还没有消失。他们说，这表明习近平还没有放弃中国的“16+1合作”外交倡议，这个包括中国和欧洲前社会主义国家的倡议，是围绕习近平的王牌项目“一带一路”提出的。

Furious about the war in Ukraine, three Baltic States have formally quit the grouping, which dates to 2012 and has been a cornerstone of Chinese diplomacy in Europe throughout Mr. Xi’s rule. Others, like the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, technically remain as members but have largely disengaged.

由于对中国在俄乌战争中所持立场的愤怒，三个波罗的海国家已正式退出了“16+1合作”，该机制始于2012年，曾一直是习近平执政期间中国在欧洲开展外交的基石。其他国家，如捷克共和国、波兰和罗马尼亚，虽然严格来说仍是该机制的成员国，但基本上已不再参与。

“The big debate now among experts around the region is whether 16+1 is dead or just a zombie,” Mr. Matura said.

“中东欧国家的专家们现在争论最多的是‘16+1’是否已死，或只是一个僵尸，”毛图拉说。