When Air Force One lands on Sunday in Malaysia, President Trump will begin a tour that will bring him face to face with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, as well as a region that has been increasingly reshaped by the competition between Beijing and Washington.

上周日，“空军一号”在马来西亚降落，特朗普的亚洲之行由此开启。此行他将与中国最高领导人会晤，并访问一个因中美竞争而经历深刻重塑的地区。

In this new kind of superpower rivalry, he and Mr. Xi are offering contrasting visions for how the world should be ordered, with consequences for chip factories in South Korea, factory floors in Vietnam, the contested waters of the South China Sea and the status of the self-governed island of Taiwan.

在这种新型的超级大国竞争下，他和习近平就世界秩序问题提出了截然不同的愿景，而这些愿景将影响到韩国的芯片工厂、越南的生产线、南海的争议水域，以及台湾这个自治岛屿的地位。

Unlike the Cold War, the battlegrounds for power and influence are centered not only on troops and warships, but also on supply chains, ports and data centers. Governments across Asia are increasingly being pressured to pick sides. Countries caught in the middle, like Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia, must weigh how to benefit from the competition without being held hostage to it.

与冷战不同的是，争夺权力和影响力的“战场”不仅聚焦于军队和舰艇，还包括供应链、港口和数据中心。亚洲各国政府正日益面临选边站队的压力。泰国、新加坡和印度尼西亚等夹在中间的国家必须权衡如何从竞争中获益，而不被竞争所挟持。

“Countries in the region don’t want to be seen as just pawns that the U.S. and P.R.C. can pass over as the two cut deals above their heads,” said Ja Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China.

新加坡国立大学政治学教授庄嘉颖说：“该地区的国家不希望被视为只是美国和中国在它们头上谈判、随意摆弄的棋子。”

“They want agency and would much rather have Washington and Beijing woo them so that they can play both powers off one another,” he added.

“他们希望拥有自主权，更愿意华盛顿和北京争相来拉拢，以便能在两大强权之间取得平衡，”他补充道。

That might have been easier in the past when the United States was more engaged with Asia. When an American president visited, it would often be a way to reassure the United States’ friends in the region that Washington had their backs when it came to an increasingly assertive China.

过去这可能更容易实现——那时美国与亚洲的互动更为积极。在以前，美国总统的到访往往被视为一种保证，表明在日益强硬的中国面前，华盛顿会支持该地区的盟友。

But as Mr. Trump arrives on Sunday, America’s commitments to its allies and partners remain an open question, strained by resentment over tariffs and uncertainty over the future of U.S. troop deployments.

然而，当特朗普周上日抵达时，美国对其盟友和伙伴的承诺仍是一个悬而未决的问题——关税引发的不满以及美军部署前景的不确定性，令盟友关系备受压力。

Beijing has sought to take advantage of that uncertainty by offering trade deals and investments to its neighbors, while staking a wider claim to the region as the only superpower willing and able to confront the Trump administration. It has warned the region of the consequences of joining Washington in restricting trade with China.

通过向周边国家提供贸易协议和投资机会，北京方面正试图利用这种不确定性，同时北京也在更广泛地宣示其作为唯一有意愿、有能力抗衡特朗普政府的超级大国地位。中国已警告周边国家，若与华盛顿联手限制对华贸易，将面临严重后果。

“To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to ask a tiger for its skin,” the Commerce Ministry in Beijing said this year, using an idiomatic expression to imply that trying to appease the Trump administration was both dangerous and futile.

“为一己一时私利，以损害别人利益来换取所谓豁免是与虎谋皮，”中国商务部今年曾经用成语暗示，试图讨好特朗普政府既危险又徒劳。

It will be difficult for Asian governments — even U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan — not to feel like bystanders when Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi meet next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. The global economy hangs in the balance as the two leaders hold talks that could either prompt or prevent another full-blown trade war.

当特朗普与习近平在韩国举行的亚太经合组织峰会上会晤时，亚洲各国政府——即便是韩日等美国盟友——难免会产生被晾在一边的感觉。两国元首的会谈将左右全球经济的天平，对话可能引发或者避免又一场全面的贸易战。

Mr. Trump wants Mr. Xi to roll back China’s new export controls on rare earths, restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and do more to crack down on Chinese-made chemicals used to make the highly addictive opioid fentanyl. Most important, experts say, he wants to come away looking like he scored a deal with Mr. Xi, bolstering his image as a strongman.

特朗普希望习近平取消对稀土出口的新管制、恢复对美国大豆的采购，并加大力度管控用于制造高度成瘾性阿片类药物芬太尼的中国化工原料。专家指出，最重要的是他需要营造出与习近平达成协议的观感，以此强化其强人形象。

On the other side is Mr. Xi, who wants Mr. Trump to drop his tariffs on Chinese goods, ease access to U.S. technology like semiconductors and loosen restrictions on Chinese investments in the United States, analysts said. The icing on the cake for Mr. Xi would be if Mr. Trump signaled he was open to reducing Washington’s support for Taiwan.

分析人士表示，中国领导人则希望特朗普取消对华关税，放宽对半导体等美国技术对华出口的限制，以及放松对中国在美投资的限制。若特朗普释放出愿意减少对台支持的信号，对习近平而言将是锦上添花。

Mr. Xi is likely going into the talks feeling that China has the stronger hand. New export rules on rare earths, which are needed for virtually every modern-day technology, have given him powerful leverage. America is still years away from finding suitable alternatives.

习近平很可能带着一种中国占据上风的心态进行这场会谈。中国对几乎所有现代科技产品都必需的稀土元素实施了新的出口管制，这为他提供了强有力的谈判杠杆。而美国要找到合适的替代供应仍需数年时间。

今年，在美国北达科他州罗杰斯的粮仓。特朗普希望习近平能恢复采购美国大豆。

But the export controls also threaten to undermine Beijing’s bid to court other countries, which has included pledging to do more to reduce emissions, and promises to upgrade a free-trade agreement with Southeast Asian nations.

不过，这些出口限制也可能削弱北京在国际舞台上拉拢他国的努力，包括此前曾承诺要在减排方面采取更多行动，并升级与东南亚国家的自由贸易协定。

“They defend multilateralism. They say they are not a hegemon, that they’re not a bully,” said David Meale, the head of Eurasia Group’s China practice and former U.S. deputy chief of mission in Beijing. “I don’t think they quite understand what they did to the world,” he said, referring to the rare earth rules.

“他们捍卫多边主义，声称自己不称霸，不胁迫他国，”欧亚集团中国事务负责人、前美国驻华使团副团长米德伟(David Meale)说。“但我认为他们并没有完全意识到，这对世界造成了怎样的影响。”他指的是稀土管制措施。

When Mr. Trump arrives in Southeast Asia, however, it will also be America’s reputation that will be scrutinized. Countries are still reeling from his sweeping tariffs, which hit their export-dependent economies hard.

当特朗普抵达东南亚时，美国的声誉也同样面临审视。各国仍在努力应对他那一系列广泛关税带来的冲击——这些关税严重打击了依赖出口的经济体。

Skepticism of the United States has also grown over the Trump administration’s sudden withdrawal of foreign aid, and over Washington’s support for Israel’s assault on Gaza. Mr. Trump is so unpopular in Malaysia, a predominantly Muslim nation, that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim even felt compelled to clarify that the invitation to the American president was made on behalf of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and not a bilateral overture.

与此同时，外界对美国的不信任也因特朗普政府突然削减对外援助，以及华盛顿对以色列在加沙行动的支持而进一步加深。在以穆斯林人口为主的马来西亚，特朗普极不受欢迎，以至于首相安瓦尔·易卜拉欣不得不澄清：此次邀请这位美国总统来访是基于东盟轮值主席国身份，并非改善两国关系的主动示好。

That skepticism is compounded by unease over the growing feud between the United States and China and what it could mean for a region that has long shied away from choosing sides.

这种疑虑因中美日益加剧的摩擦及其对长期不愿选边站地区的潜在影响而加深。

Lynn Kuok, a Southeast Asia expert at the Brookings Institution, said that with the uncertainty surrounding the United States, many Southeast Asian countries were trying to deepen ties with Gulf nations and Europe.

布鲁金斯学会东南亚问题专家琳恩·郭表示，鉴于美国政策的不确定性，许多东南亚国家正尝试加深与海湾国家和欧洲的联系。

“That said, given China’s proximity and sustained engagement, the region could tilt further toward China, by design or necessity,” she said. “Beijing’s longstanding economic, strategic and diplomatic engagement with the region both bilaterally and multilaterally positions it to gain the most from any vacuum left by Washington.”

“话虽如此，考虑到中国的地理邻近以及持续的区域参与，东南亚各国可能会出于战略考量或现实需要而进一步向中国倾斜，”她说。“北京通过长期与该地区建立的双边及多边经济、战略和外交联系，已占据有利地位，足以从华盛顿留下的任何权力真空中获取最大利益。”

China will no doubt be a major topic when Mr. Trump goes to Japan, where he will meet Sanae Takaichi, who this past week was elected as the country’s prime minister, the first woman to serve in that role.

当特朗普前往日本时，中国无疑将成为重要议题。他将在那里会见高市早苗——这位刚当选的新任日本首相是日本历史上首位女性首相。

Ms. Takaichi suggested during her leadership bid that she could take a tougher approach in dealing with the Trump administration. But she has recently struck a moderate tone, pledging to work to preserve a trade agreement signed by her predecessor in July.

在竞选期间，高市早苗曾表示，可能会在对待特朗普政府的问题上采取更为强硬的立场。但她最近语气趋于温和，承诺将努力维护前任于7月签署的贸易协定。

Ms. Takaichi is expected to make building a rapport with Mr. Trump a priority, tapping into their shared admiration for Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister who was assassinated in 2022, and who was a mentor to Ms. Takaichi.

高市早苗预计将把与特朗普建立良好关系作为优先事项，借助他们对前首相安倍晋三的共同敬仰来拉近距离。于2022年遇刺身亡的安倍一直是高市在政治上的导师。

She is also likely to raise the concerns about China’s growing military and economic power in Asia.

她还可能在会谈中提出中国在亚洲日益增长的军事与经济影响力所引发的担忧。

Similar concerns are being felt in South Korea, a staunch ally of the United States that now finds itself increasingly caught between its dependence on American security and its reliance on trade with China. South Korea hopes that a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi, which is expected on Thursday, will help ease their tension so South Korea can have more breathing room.

韩国同样存在类似的忧虑。这个美国传统盟友日益陷入两难境地——它一方面依赖美国的安全保障，另一方面又离不开对华贸易往来。韩国希望预计于周四举行的特朗普与习近平的会晤能有助于缓和双方紧张关系，从而为自己赢得更多战略回旋空间。

During a visit to Washington in August, President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged that it was getting harder to strike a balance given the intensifying competition between the two giants, saying, “it’s no longer possible to maintain that kind of logic.”

在8月访问华盛顿期间，韩国总统李在明承认，随着两个大国竞争加剧，维持原有的平衡越来越困难。他表示：“如今已不可能再继续维持那种逻辑了。”