On a windy September morning, Josh and Jordan Gackle huddled to discuss the looming crisis facing their North Dakota soybean farm.

在9月一个刮着大风的早晨，乔希和乔丹·加克尔兄弟碰头，讨论他们位于北达科他州的大豆农场正面临的迫在眉睫的危机。

For the first time in the history of their 76-year-old operation, their biggest customer — China — had stopped buying soybeans. Their 2,300-acre soybean farm is projected to lose $400,000 in 2025. Soybeans that would normally be harvested and exported to Asia are now set to pile up in large steel bins.

在他们农场76年的历史中，这是最大客户中国首次停止采购大豆。这个面积达930公顷的大豆农场在2025年预计将亏损40万美元。原本应该收获并出口亚洲的大豆如今只能堆积在巨大的钢铁谷仓中。

Since President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in February, Beijing has retaliated by halting all purchases of American soybeans.

自从特朗普总统在2月对中国商品加征关税以来，北京方面采取报复措施，全面停止购买美国大豆。

That decision has had devastating repercussions for farmers in North Dakota, which exported more than 70 percent of its soybeans to China before Trump unveiled the new tariffs this year. Unless China agrees to restart its purchases as part of a trade deal, farmers that depend on the Chinese market will be facing steep losses that could fuel farm bankruptcies and farm foreclosures around the United States.

这个决定给北达科他州的农民带来了毁灭性打击。在此之前，该州超过70%的大豆都出口到中国。除非中国同意在贸易协议中恢复采购，否则依赖中国市场的农民将面临惨重损失，这可能引发全美范围内的农场破产与止赎。

China’s reluctance to purchase American soybeans and other agricultural products is expected to be a central topic as top officials from the United States and China meet for another round of economic negotiations in Spain this week.

本周中美高层官员在西班牙举行新一轮经济谈判时，中国拒绝采购美国大豆及其他农产品的问题预计将成为核心议题。

Those talks are being anchored by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Mr. Trump has put in charge of negotiating and securing a favorable trade deal with China. A win would undoubtedly curry favor with Mr. Trump. But in a strange twist, it could also help Mr. Bessent financially.

主持这轮谈判的是财长斯科特·贝森特，特朗普任命他负责与中国谈判并确保达成对美有利的贸易协议。一旦成功，这无疑会让他在特朗普面前大大加分。但讽刺的是，这也可能在经济上让贝森特本人受益。

The Treasury Secretary owns thousands of acres of North Dakota farmland, worth up to $25 million. The properties grow soybeans and corn in a state that exports most of its agricultural products to China. The investments have earned Mr. Bessent as much as $1 million in rental income annually, according to his financial disclosure filings.

这位财长在北达科他州拥有数以千计英亩的农田，价值高达2500万美元。这些土地主要种植大豆和玉米，而该州的大部分农产品都出口到中国。根据他的财务披露文件，这些投资每年为贝森特带来高达100万美元的租金收入。

But the fortunes of Mr. Bessent, a multimillionaire former hedge fund manager, are not nearly as exposed to China’s whims as are those of the family farmers struggling to figure out how to sell their soybeans and keep their finances from falling apart.

不过，对于这位身家上亿的前对冲基金经理来说，他的财富远不像那些家庭农场主那样容易受制于中国的反复无常。农场主们正苦苦挣扎，不知要如何卖掉手中的大豆，并设法避免财务崩溃。

To farmers in North Dakota, the forces of high interest rates, high input costs and falling prices are reminiscent of the 1980s farm crisis, which hobbled U.S. agriculture for nearly a decade and hollowed out much of rural America.

对北达科他州的农民而言，高利率、高投入成本和价格下跌的多重压力让人联想起上世纪80年代的农场危机——那场危机曾让美国农业在近十年里举步维艰，并掏空了美国大部分农村地区。

“The stress level is much higher now than it was then,” Jordan Gackle, 44, said in an interview. “If we keep this going for very long, then we are going to see the kind of foreclosures that were happening.”

“现在的压力比当年要大得多，”44岁的乔丹·加克尔在接受采访时表示。“如果这种情况再持续下去，我们将看到和当年一样的止赎情况。”

Standing before a field of soybeans a few weeks away from harvest, he added: “All of it is unnecessary. The U.S. was not forced into this by anybody.”

站在一片数周后即将收割的大豆田前，他补充道：“这一切完全没有必要。美国不是被任何人逼到这般田地的。”

An American soybean slump

美国大豆产业陷入萧条

In a typical year, more than half the soybeans grown in the United States are sold to China. That includes around 70 percent of North Dakota’s soybeans, which are routed by train to ports in the Pacific Northwest and then shipped to Asia.

在通常情况下，美国每年种植的大豆有超过半数销往中国。其中北达科他州约70%的大豆通过铁路运往太平洋西北地区的港口，再转运至亚洲。

But Mr. Trump’s trade war with China has changed that dynamic. After the president imposed tariffs on the goods of that country on the grounds that its economic practices threaten U.S. national security, Beijing retaliated with tariffs of its own. The total duties that China imposed on American soybeans are now up to 34 percent, according to the American Soybean Association, making them more expensive than what China can buy from Brazil. U.S. farmers also believe that China is snubbing American beans to put pressure on the Trump administration.

但特朗普与中国的贸易战改变了这一格局。总统以中国的经济行为威胁美国国家安全为由对该国商品加征关税后，北京实施了报复性关税措施。根据美国大豆协会数据，中国对美国大豆征收的关税税率目前高达34%，这使得美国大豆价格比中国从巴西购买的贵。美国农民还认为，中国抵制美国大豆是为了向特朗普政府施压。

Promises broken

未兑现的承诺

In Mr. Trump’s first term, Beijing drastically scaled back purchases of American agricultural products to gain leverage in trade negotiations after the president slapped tariffs on Chinese goods. The decision was politically calculated: Farmers tend to live in Republican states that voted for Mr. Trump, so harming them economically threatened a core constituency.

在特朗普首个任期里，当他对中国商品加征关税后，北京通过大幅削减美国农产品采购来获取贸易谈判筹码。这一决定背后有政治算计：农场主多集中于支持特朗普的共和党州，因此经济上损害他们的利益将冲击其核心选民群体。

The United States and China ultimately reached a trade deal toward the end of Mr. Trump’s first term, which included a commitment from Beijing to purchase large amounts of American farm products. But it failed to live up to those commitments after the pandemic frayed its relations with the United States.

最终，在特朗普第一任期的尾声，美中达成了一项贸易协议，其中包括北京承诺购买大量美国农产品。但在疫情冲击两国关系后，中国没有兑现这些承诺。

When Mr. Trump started his second term, his top economic officials promised to protect America’s farming industry as they embarked on tariff fights with China and other nations.

当特朗普开启第二任期时，其主要的经济官员在与中国及其他国家展开关税战之际，曾承诺保护美国的农业产业。

In August, Mr. Trump called publicly for China to step up its purchases of American soybeans in a direct plea to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

8月，特朗普曾经向中国最高领导人直接喊话，要求中国加大采购美国大豆的力度。

“Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social, urging China to quadruple its orders.

“我们伟大的农民生产出最优质的大豆，”特朗普在Truth Social平台上写道，敦促中国将订单增加四倍。

The attention from the White House raised hopes among North Dakota farmers that a deal might be near. But no progress has been made. With soybean harvest season just weeks away, they warn that the situation is getting dire.

白宫的关注让北达科他州的农民们燃起了希望，觉得协议可能即将达成。但至今没有任何进展。随着大豆收获季仅剩几周就要到来，他们警告形势正日趋严峻。

“I feel like we’re out of time,” said Justin Sherlock, 37, a farmer from Dazey, N.D.

“我感觉我们已经没有时间了，”37岁的北达科他州戴齐镇农民贾斯廷·夏洛克说。

Mr. Sherlock said the standoff was particularly upsetting given that the United States spent 40 years building its soybean industry around China as its largest customer. “Are we going to lose a generation of farmers because of the trade war? I think that’s what we’re fast approaching.”

夏洛克表示，考虑到美国花费40年时间将中国作为最大客户来打造大豆产业，当前的僵局尤其令人沮丧。“难道我们要因为这场贸易战而失去整整一代农民吗？我觉得这一幕很快就要到来了。”

White House officials have been considering rolling out federal aid to keep farmers afloat like they did during the 2019 trade war.

白宫官员正在考虑推出联邦援助计划维持农民生计，就像他们在2019年贸易战期间所做的那样。

Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators have been meeting regularly this year after Mr. Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent. An agreement in May reduced those to 30 percent, but the two sides remain far apart on other areas such as intellectual property theft, export controls on sensitive American products such as microchips and access to the Chinese market.

自特朗普将中国进口商品关税提高至145%后，中美高层谈判代表今年一直开展定期会晤。5月达成的一项协议将关税降至30%，但双方在知识产权盗窃、芯片等敏感美国产品的出口管制以及中国市场准入等领域仍存在巨大分歧。

“What you’re seeing with China is them obviously trying to flex their muscles in a way which will back us down,” said Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser. “We understand what they’re doing. Negotiations with them are ongoing.”

“你们看到的就是中国显然正试图展示实力，逼迫我们退让，”白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗说。“我们清楚他们的意图。与他们的谈判仍在持续进行中。”

Struggling to sell the farm

农场出售遇困

The role Mr. Bessent is playing poses a potential conflict of interest given that he owns thousands of acres of farmland in North Dakota.

考虑到贝森特在北达科他州拥有数以千计公顷农田，他目前所扮演的角色存在潜在利益冲突。

At his confirmation hearing in January, Mr. Bessent said that he would personally push his Chinese counterparts to purchase the farm products that they had promised to buy in the trade deal Mr. Trump signed with China in 2020.

1月的提名确认听证会上，贝森特表示，他将亲自推动中方官员购买特朗普2020年与中国签署的贸易协议中承诺采购的农产品。

The Treasury secretary, who noted that he listened to farm radio on weekends, promised lawmakers that he would back farmers if America’s trading partners retaliated against them.

这位财政部长说自己周末会收听农业电台，他向议员们承诺，若美国的贸易伙伴对美国农民采取报复措施，他将为农民提供支持。

Mr. Bessent was supposed to sell his farmland this year as part of a government ethics agreement that requires top officials to divest from assets if their federal work could directly influence the assets’ value.

按照政府操守规则要求，若高级官员的联邦职务可能直接影响其资产价值，需剥离相关资产。贝森特本应在今年出售其农田。

The Office of Government Ethics said last month that Mr. Bessent failed to fully comply with an agreement that required him to divest his financial assets. In a letter to the Senate Finance Committee, Dale Christopher, the ethics office’s deputy director of compliance, added that it was Mr. Bessent’s “personal responsibility to avoid taking any action that could create a real or apparent conflict of interest with regard to his holdings.”

政府操守办公室上月表示，贝森特未能完全遵守要求其剥离金融资产的协议。该办公室合规副主任戴尔·克里斯托弗在致参议院财政委员会的信中补充称，贝森特“个人有责任避免采取任何可能使其所持资产面临实际或表面利益冲突的行动”。

After receiving the warning, Mr. Bessent pledged to fully comply with his ethics agreement by Dec. 15.

收到警告后，贝森特承诺将在12月15日前完全符合操守规则的要求。

The Treasury Department had no comment on whether Mr. Bessent was recusing himself from certain aspects of the China trade talks. A spokesman said that he was in the final stages of selling the farmland in question.

对于贝森特是否会回避中美贸易谈判中的某些环节，美国财政部未予置评。一位发言人表示，贝森特正处于出售相关农田的最后阶段。

Land brokers and auctioneers in North Dakota said they were unaware that Mr. Bessent was trying to sell his property, although it is possible that he is trying to do so privately.

北达科他州的土地经纪人和拍卖商称，他们并未得知贝森特在出售农田，但不排除他正试图私下交易的可能。

The feasibility of selling that much land in a short time can depend on various factors, including the type of rental contracts Mr. Bessent has on his farms, who operates the land, the labor market and whether family farmers can afford to buy.

短期内出售如此大面积的土地能否实现，取决于多个因素，包括贝森特的农田的租赁合约类型、土地运营方、劳动力市场，以及家庭农场主是否有购买能力。

China’s shunning of American soybeans is most likely making it harder for Mr. Bessent to unload his farms. Although farmland prices in North Dakota have been rising by more than 10 percent annually this decade, high interest rates and falling soybean and corn prices mean that land values are expected to flatten or fall.

中国拒绝采购美国大豆，很可能让贝森特的农场出售难度加大。尽管在这个十年间，北达科他州的农田价格年均涨幅超过10%，但高利率以及大豆、玉米价格下跌意味着，土地价值预计将趋于平稳甚至下跌。

“If I were a seller, I would want to get it on the market sooner rather than later,” said Steve Johnson, owner of Johnson Auction and Realty in Fargo. “The Chinese aren’t buying the soybeans.”

“如果我是卖家，我会希望尽快将土地挂牌，而不是拖延，”法戈市约翰逊拍卖与房地产公司老板史蒂夫·约翰逊表示。“中国人现在不买大豆了。”

通常情况下，美国每年种植的大豆有超过一半销往中国。

A snarled soybean supply chain

陷入混乱的大豆供应链

The loss of business from China is creating disruptions across the soybean supply chain, which includes grain elevators, crushers and trains that transport them across the country.

中国市场业务的流失正导致大豆供应链各环节陷入混乱，包括粮库、压榨厂以及在全国范围内运输它们的铁路系统。

Unless a deal is reached, American soybean farmers will be forced to store the soybeans that they harvest to avoid having to sell them at a huge loss. They are already scrambling to find extra storage such as white plastic bags or spare bins where the soybeans can be preserved until the market corrects itself.

除非达成相关协议，否则美国豆农将被迫储存收获的大豆，以避免被迫大幅折价出售。他们已在紧急寻找额外的储存空间——无论是白色塑料袋还是闲置储粮仓——以便将大豆储存至市场行情好转。

At Arthur Companies, which operates large grain elevators in North Dakota, Kevin Karel is working quickly to build more temporary storage to hold up to seven million bushels of soybeans that will sit on asphalt pads and be protected by tarps.

亚瑟公司在北达科他州运营大型粮库，该公司的凯文·卡雷尔正加急建造更多临时储存设施，以容纳多达700万蒲式耳大豆，它们将建在沥青地面上，用防水油布遮盖。

He also expects to accelerate exporting corn to other countries to make more storage space for soybeans. If no deal is reached with China, U.S. soybean exporters will have to lower prices and hope that other countries will be enticed to buy them.

他还计划加快向其他国家出口玉米，为大豆腾出更多储存空间。若未能与中国达成协议，美国大豆出口商将不得不降价，寄望于吸引其他国家采购。

“There’s no replacement in the market for China,” Mr. Karel said.

“市场上没有任何买家能替代中国，”卡雷尔表示。

China has not closed the door to buying American soybeans. In recent weeks, Chinese officials have visited Washington and North Dakota to discuss the possibility of future purchases.

中国并未完全关闭采购美国大豆的大门。近几周，中国官员已到访华盛顿和北达科他州，探讨未来采购的可能性。

Bill Wilson, a professor of agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University, said that China would prefer that agricultural trade with the United States be as unrestricted as possible so that it can have access to American soybeans in the event of a dockworker strike or other disruption that interferes with its supplies in Brazil.

北达科他州立大学农业综合企业与应用经济学教授比尔·威尔逊表示，中国希望与美国的农产品贸易尽可能不受限制，这样一来，若出现码头工人罢工或其他影响巴西大豆供应的突发情况，中国仍能获取美国大豆。

But China appears unlikely to let go of its leverage over American farmers, and it may not be easy for them to recover.

但中国似乎不愿放弃对美国农民的制衡手段，而美国农民要恢复往日的市场地位，可能并非易事。

“I have never seen as monumental a disruption in agriculture as we’re experiencing now,” said Mr. Wilson, who has been teaching at the university for 43 years. “These are turbulent, turbulent times.”

“我从未见过如此严重的农业动荡，”在该校执教43年的威尔逊表示。“这真是个动荡不安的时代。”