For months, companies and officials throughout Asia have been waiting for President Trump to address a question that cuts to the heart of his disruptive plans for global trade.

数月来，亚洲各地的企业和官员一直在等待特朗普总统解答一个问题——这个问题关乎他对全球贸易所提出的颠覆性计划的核心。

How will he decide the origin of goods in a world where virtually all the things we buy, from computers and phones to sofas and cars, contain parts that come from different countries?

在当今世界，我们购买的几乎所有商品——从电脑、手机到沙发、汽车——都包含来自不同国家的零部件，特朗普将如何判定这些商品的原产地？

The answer is central to Mr. Trump’s aim to reduce China’s dominant role as the starting point for many of the world’s manufactured goods.

这个问题的答案对特朗普至关重要，因为他的目标之一是削弱中国作为全球众多制成品起点的主导地位。

“It’s a sleeper issue,” said Wendy Cutler, a senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank. “People are trying to convince themselves that it is just technical, but if you take a step back, it’s all going to rest on this.”

“这是一个潜伏的问题，”智库亚洲协会政策研究所高级副总裁温迪·卡特勒表示。“人们试图说服自己这只是技术层面的问题，但退一步看，所有事情最终都将取决于此。”

No other region is more exposed to Mr. Trump’s crackdown than Southeast Asia. Billions of dollars a year in raw materials, machinery and finished goods flow from China through Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries across the region.

在特朗普的贸易打击行动中，没有哪个地区比东南亚面临的风险更大。每年，数以十亿计美元的原材料、机械设备和制成品从中国流向越南、泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家。

In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sunday, at the start of his nearly weeklong trip to Asia, Mr. Trump announced trade agreements with several Southeast Asian countries. The documents, to varying degrees, acknowledged pass-through trade and tariff evasion, but the announcements did not contain details addressing how he wants to define the nationality of goods.

周日，特朗普来到马来西亚吉隆坡，开启了为期近一周的亚洲之行，并与多个东南亚国家签署了贸易协议。这些文件在不同程度上承认了转口贸易和关税规避现象的存在，但并未详细说明他计划如何定义商品的国籍。

The determination that the Trump administration makes on the so-called rule of origin could blow up laboriously negotiated agreements. That is because if a product is shipped from one country but does not meet the origin criteria, it will be hit with a hefty special tariff, which Mr. Trump has warned will be 40 percent.

特朗普政府对所谓原产地规则的判定可能会让各方辛苦谈判达成的协议化为泡影。原因在于，若某件商品从一国出口，但未达到原产地标准，就将面临高额特别关税——特朗普此前已警告，这一税率可能高达40%。

This summer, Mr. Trump, pulling back on his opening salvo of sky-high tariffs in Asia, announced frameworks for most Southeast Asia countries with across-the-board tariffs that settled at 19 or 20 percent.

今年夏天，特朗普调整了最初在亚洲推出的高额关税政策，宣布对多数东南亚国家实施统一关税框架，将全面关税稳定在19%或20%。

曼谷一家宠物食品工厂。每年有价值数十亿美元的中国产品通过泰国及该地区其他国家流通。

Mr. Trump’s trade legacy in his first term was to force companies to set up factories outside China. Now, he is trying to cut China out of supply chains. China has moved goods through Southeast Asia to circumvent American tariffs and has been the source of a swell of exports to the region, much of those in machinery and raw materials that regional factories depend on.

特朗普第一任期内的贸易遗产是迫使企业将工厂迁出中国；如今，他正试图将中国彻底排除在供应链之外。此前，中国一直通过东南亚转运商品以规避美国关税，同时也向东南亚大量出口，其中大部分是该地区工厂依赖的机械设备和原材料。

Many of the components in the things that are made around the world come from China, from the screws and glue that hold metal and wood together to the minerals in smartphone batteries.

如今全球生产的商品中，许多零部件都来自中国，从连接金属与木材的螺丝和胶水，到智能手机电池中的矿物。

Yet even in Malaysia, where signing a deal with Mr. Trump would be seen as a positive development, there is some hesitancy about the unilateral way that the United States is going about setting new rules for global trade.

即便在马来西亚——该国与特朗普签署协议本应被视为积极进展——当地对美国单方面制定全球贸易新规则的做法也存在顾虑。

Malaysia’s biggest trading partner is China, but one of its biggest industries, semiconductors, depends heavily on the American market, and its exports are at risk with the possibility of separate sector tariffs.

中国是马来西亚最大的贸易伙伴，但马来西亚的重要产业——半导体行业——又高度依赖美国市场，若美国对该行业单独加征关税，其出口将面临风险。。

“All we can do is express our concerns — hopefully, they are listening to the confusion,” said Siobhan Das, chief executive of AmCham Malaysia, which represents American companies in Malaysia. “With this trade agreement, what we’re hoping for is that there is clarity and a guideline for how supply chains need to move.”

“我们能做的只有表达担忧，希望美方能倾听这些困惑，”马来西亚美国商会首席执行官西沃恩·达斯表示，该机构代表在马来西亚的美资企业。“我们期待这项贸易协定能为供应链运作提供明确指引。”

Trump administration officials have been vocal about setting one rule-of-origin target for the region. They have focused on 30 percent: Any product containing more than that level of foreign parts or content sent to the United States would face the special transshipment tariff. While discussions are fluid, one thing is clear: For much of Southeast Asia, such a low figure would be difficult to meet.

特朗普政府官员多次公开表示，计划为东南亚地区设定统一的原产地规则标准。他们将重点放在30%这一比例上：任何出口到美国的商品，若外国零部件或成分占比超过30%，就将面临特别转运关税。尽管相关讨论仍在推进，但有一点很明确：对大多数东南亚国家而言，这样低的比例也很难达到。

Even if the administration clarifies a final number, for many companies and governments there are many more questions. What counts as foreign content? Does it include foreign investment in a factory? A foreign-branded machine? Foreign workers? In recent years, many factories from China have moved some of their operations to countries like Vietnam but have created local supply chains and employ local workers.

即便政府明确了最终比例，企业和各国政府仍有诸多疑问：哪些内容算作“外国成分”？是否包括对工厂的外国投资？外国品牌的设备算不算？外籍员工的贡献算不算？近年来，许多中国工厂已将部分业务转移到越南等国，但同时也在当地建立了供应链，并雇佣了本地员工。

台湾某工厂的螺钉紧固件。

And whose role will it be to police this new content rule?

此外，谁将负责监管这项新的成分规则？

“You’re talking about creating an entire new policing agency for exports to the U.S.,” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm.

“这相当于要针对向美国的出口物创建一个全新的监管机构，”地缘政治咨询公司亚太顾问公司首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯表示。

Governments in Southeast Asia are facing a dilemma. Getting clarity on the rule-of-origin number is crucial before signing broader trade agreements. Many of the products they export may not be able to meet the new definition for a local product.

东南亚各国政府正面临两难困境：在签署更广泛的贸易协议前，明确原产地比例标准至关重要，但他们出口的许多商品可能无法满足本地产品的新定义。

But if they don’t sign something more concrete than the initial trade agreements with the United States soon, they face the threat of the original steep tariffs that Mr. Trump threatened in the spring.

可如果不尽快与美国签署比初步协议更具体的文件，他们又将面临特朗普今年春季威胁实施的初始高额关税。

“It’s deeply unsettling from an economic point of view, because if tariffs were to snap back to those original levels, that would be devastating,” said Daniel Kritenbrink, a longtime American diplomatic official in Asia and former ambassador to Vietnam now at the Asia Group, a think tank. “From a broader strategic point of view, these are countries that look to the U.S. as a balance or guarantor for strategic stability in the region.”

“从经济角度来看，这极其令人不安——若关税恢复到最初水平，后果将是毁灭性的，”长期在亚洲任职的美国外交官、前美国驻越南大使、现任职于智库亚洲集团的丹尼尔·克里滕布林克表示。“从更广泛的战略角度看，这些国家将美国视为地区战略稳定的平衡者和保障者。”

The countries will also have to negotiate with Mr. Trump over various sector tariffs under a legal provision in the United States known as Section 232, covering products ranging from semiconductors to machinery, furniture and pharmaceuticals.

根据美国的一项称为“232条款”的法律规定，这些国家还需就涵盖半导体、机械、家具及药品等各类产品的行业关税与特朗普展开谈判。

All of this will come as Mr. Trump is expected to meet with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in South Korea at the end of the week to talk about a host of economic and political issues dividing the world’s superpowers.

与此同时，特朗普预计将于本周末在韩国同中国国家领导人习近平会晤，两人将讨论全球两大超级大国的一系列经济和政治分歧。

“If you’re heavily dependent on China, then you are between a rock and a hard place,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade.

“如果一个国家高度依赖中国，那它就会陷入左右为难的境地，”专注于贸易领域的亨里希基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯表示。

“No matter how much leverage you have, you’re still a lot smaller than the U.S. or China,” she said.

“无论你拥有多少影响力，与美国或中国相比，规模都小得多。”