When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.

新冠疫情暴发时，中国的工厂纷纷停工，全球航运放缓。短短数周时间，美国的商店开始断货，那些依赖外国原材料的美国公司接连倒闭。

A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.

如今类似的趋势正在重演，但这次的导火索是特朗普总统将中国进口商品关税上调至最低145%的决定，这一惊人税率直接导致中美贸易几近瘫痪：往来两国港口的大型集装箱货轮数量锐减，未来数周抵达美国口岸的中国商品将呈断崖式下跌。

While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.

虽然自4月初以来对中国产品的高关税就已实施，但中国产品的供应以及消费者购买这些产品所支付的价格并没有发生太大变化。不过，一些公司现在已经开始提高价格。专家表示，在接下来的几周里，随着中国工厂取消订单所引发的连锁反应将席卷世界各地，最终抵达美国，影响会越来越明显。

The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States plummeted by about a third in April.

4月，中国发往美国的满载玩具、家具等商品的巨型集装箱货轮骤减约三分之一。

The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.

消费者尚未明显感受到关税影响，是因为集装箱船需要20到40天才能穿越太平洋。阿波罗全球管理公司的经济学家在最近的一份报告中指出，然后，中国商品通过铁路或公路运至美国各地还需1至10天不等。这意味着，4月初生效的对华高关税现在才开始导致抵达美国港口的货轮数量减少，而这一趋势应该还会加剧。

By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.

到5月底或6月初，消费者可能会开始看到一些货架空空如也，零售商和物流行业可能会出现裁员。阿波罗公司的经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛科表示，停止与中国的贸易对美国经济的重大影响将在2025年夏天开始显现，届时美国经济可能会陷入经济衰退。

“U.S. consumers will within a few weeks see empty shelves in clothing stores, toy stores, hardware stores and retail drugstores, and higher prices of the goods that still are on the shelves,” he said.

他说：“美国消费者将在几周内看到服装店、玩具店、五金店和零售药店出现缺货的情况，而货架上仍有的商品价格也将上涨。”

Molson Hart, the chief executive of Viahart, a toy company, wrote on X: “It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.”

玩具公司Viahart的首席执行官莫尔森·哈特在X上写道：“这就像我们正加速冲向一堵砖墙，但司机却浑然不觉。等他发现时，踩刹车为时已晚。”

The decline in Chinese imports will be amplified on Friday, when the United States eliminates so-called de minimis treatment for Chinese goods. The rule has allowed products up to $800 to avoid tariffs as long as they are shipped directly to consumers. It has boosted the business model of companies like Temu and Shein, and it has resulted in a surge of individually addressed packages to the United States, many of which are shipped by air.

中国进口商品的下降趋势在上周五进一步加剧——美国取消了针对中国商品的所谓小额关税豁免政策。该政策允许价值800美元以下的商品免关税直邮消费者，这不仅助推了Temu和希音(Shein)等企业的商业模式，更导致发往美国的个人包裹激增，其中许多是走空运。

Supporters of the change say that this tariff loophole has given Chinese shippers an unfair advantage and hurt American businesses. But the decision to get rid of it is already resulting in higher prices for U.S. consumers. And the change is expected to weigh on airlines and private carriers like FedEx, which have steady business delivering small-dollar goods.

支持这项政策改变的人表示，这个关税漏洞让中国的出口商获得了不公平的优势，损害了美国企业的利益。但取消这一政策已经导致美国消费者面临更高的价格。而且预计这一变化会给航空公司以及联邦快递等私营承运商带来压力，小额商品运输曾是这些承运商的稳定业务。

Port workers and logistics companies have been expecting their own disruptions. At the Port of Los Angeles, the main entry point for Chinese products arriving in the United States, imports surged in recent months as businesses and consumers tried to stock up on goods in advance of the tariffs coming into effect. But that activity has now started to decline.

港口工人和物流公司早已预见到行业将受冲击。洛杉矶港是中国商品运抵美国的主要入境点，近几个月来，由于企业和消费者试图在关税生效前囤积货物，该港的进口量激增。但现在进口潮已开始消退。

The number of containers arriving at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop more than 35 percent next week compared with the same period last year, port data shows. Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, said that a quarter of the ships that had been scheduled for May had canceled because of light volume.

港口数据显示，与去年同期相比，下周抵达洛杉矶港的集装箱数量预计将下降超过35%。该港口的执行董事吉恩·塞罗卡表示，由于运量不足，原计划5月靠港船舶有四分之一已经取消了行程。

As of about two weeks ago, goods coming into the port from China have been “very few and far between,” Mr. Seroka said.

塞罗卡表示，大约在两周前开始，从中国抵达该港口的货物变得“寥寥无几”。

洛杉矶港用于卸货的起重机，摄于4月。未来几周，随着抵达美国港口的船只减少，美国关税的影响将更加明显。

Data shows that sales of heavy trucks have fallen sharply, too, suggesting that companies in the logistics space expect to be moving fewer goods in the future.

数据显示，重型卡车的销量也大幅下降，这表明物流企业预计未来货运量将持续减少。

Trade experts say that companies have stockpiled enough inventory in recent months that, if the White House reverses course soon and significantly drops tariffs on China, much of the pain for the U.S. economy and consumers can be avoided. Data from the Institute for Supply Management shows that U.S. inventories are at their highest level in more than two years.

贸易专家指出，由于企业近几个月来大量囤积库存，若白宫能尽快大幅下调对华关税，美国经济和消费者或将避免最严重的冲击。美国供应管理学会数据显示，当前美国的库存已达到两年多来的最高水平。

Gabriel Wildau, a managing director at Teneo, who advises companies on doing business with China, said that the Chinese goods that U.S. retailers had stockpiled in the first three months of the year would give stores some time before they would need to raise prices. But if the situation is not changed quickly, American consumers will feel the impact of trade changes unfold over the next three to six months, he said.

为企业提供对华业务咨询的Teneo公司董事总经理吴佳柏(Gabriel Wildau)说，美国零售商在今年前三个月囤积的中国商品，将留出一段涨价的缓冲期。但他说，如果情况不能迅速改变，美国消费者将在未来三到六个月内感受到贸易变化带来的影响。

“We’re going to have higher prices and, in some cases, empty shelves,” he said.

他警告道：“我们将面临物价上涨，某些商品甚至会出现断供情况。”

Trump officials have admitted that there could be some disruptions for consumers. The president seemed to acknowledge on Wednesday that his trade changes could lead to fewer goods and higher prices.

特朗普政府的官员们已经承认，这可能会给消费者带来一些不便。总统在上周三似乎也承认，他的贸易政策调整可能会导致商品供应的减少和价格上涨。

“You know, somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves are going to be open,’” Mr. Trump said from the White House. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

特朗普在白宫回应称：“你知道，有人说，‘哦，货架会空空如也’，嗯，也许孩子们就只有两个而不是30个玩具娃娃了，而这两个娃娃可能比平时要贵几块钱。"

But administration officials have said any pain will be minimal. At a White House briefing on Tuesday, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that he did not expect to see supply chain shocks from U.S. tariffs on China. “I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this,” he said.

但政府官员坚称影响将极为有限。上周二的白宫简报会上，财长斯科特·贝森特表示，预计美国对华关税不会对供应链造成冲击。他说：“我认为零售商在此之前已经做好库存准备。”

Some firms that are in a more fragile financial position have not been able to stockpile and are rapidly being forced out of business. Even if the Trump administration finds a way to reduce its tariffs on China, it’s not clear that the levies will fall enough to meaningfully restart trade.

一些财务状况较为脆弱的企业无力囤货，正迅速陷入倒闭危机。即使特朗普政府找到了降低对华关税的办法，但目前还不清楚关税的下降幅度是否足以让贸易真正重启。

Many companies say that tariffs above 50 percent on Chinese imports are enough to stop trade entirely. With tariffs now at a minimum of 145 percent, and in some cases much higher, that would mean that the Trump administration may have to drop its China tariffs by at least 100 percentage points to meaningfully restart the flow of goods.

许多公司表示，对中国商品征收超过50%的关税就足以让贸易完全停止。现在的关税最低已有145%，部分品类甚至更高，这意味着特朗普政府可能必须将对华关税至少降低100个百分点，才能让商品贸易真正重启。

Ryan Petersen, the chief executive of Flexport, a supply chain company, said that, even before the president hiked tariffs on China to 145 percent in April, the tariffs the Trump administration had put on China were high, at a minimum of 54 percent.

供应链公司飞协博的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森表示，早在总统4月份将对华关税提高到145%之前，特朗普政府对中国征收的关税就已经很高了，最低为54%。

“The reality is that 54 percent was already an incredibly high tariff rate,” Mr. Petersen said. “It depends on how far they walk it back. If they walk it back to 25 percent, maybe this all becomes a non-event.”

“现实情况是，54%的税率已经高得令人难以置信了，”彼得森说。“这取决于他们能把关税降回到什么水平。如果他们把关税降到25%，那这一切也许就是虚惊一场。”