2025年3月25日
President Trump says he is focused on stopping the “death march” in Ukraine “as soon as possible.”
特朗普总统说,他的重点是“尽快”结束乌克兰的“死亡行军”。
But for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, cease-fire talks with Mr. Trump are a means to much broader ends.
但对俄罗斯总统普京来说,与特朗普进行停火谈判是达到更广泛目标的手段。
Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia on Monday to deepen their negotiations about technical details of a partial cease-fire to halt attacks on energy facilities and on ships in the Black Sea. While Ukraine says it’s ready for a full truce, Mr. Putin has made it clear that he will seek a wide range of concessions first.
俄罗斯和美国官员周一在沙特阿拉伯举行会晤,就达成停止对黑海能源设施和船只袭击的部分停火协议的技术细节进行深入谈判。虽然乌克兰表示已做好全面停火的准备,但普京清楚地表明,他首先要寻求广泛的让步。
The upshot: The Kremlin appears determined to squeeze as many benefits as possible from Mr. Trump’s desire for a Ukraine peace deal, even as it slow-walks the negotiations. Viewed from Moscow, better ties with Washington are an economic and geopolitical boon — one that may be achieved even as Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine.
结果是:克里姆林宫在缓慢地推进谈判,同时似乎决心从特朗普要达成乌克兰和平协议的愿望尽量榨取利益。从莫斯科的角度来看,与华盛顿建立更好的关系在经济和地缘政治上非常有好处,即使俄罗斯导弹继续袭击乌克兰,这也有可能实现。
Interviews last week with senior Russian foreign-policy figures at a security conference in New Delhi suggested that the Kremlin saw negotiations over Ukraine and over U.S.-Russia ties as running on two separate tracks. Mr. Putin continues to seek a far-reaching victory in Ukraine but is humoring Mr. Trump’s cease-fire push to seize the benefits of a thaw with Washington.
上周在新德里举行的安全会议上对俄罗斯外交政策高层人士的采访表明,克里姆林宫认为有关乌克兰的谈判和有关俄美关系的谈判是在两个不同轨道上进行的。虽然普京继续寻求在乌克兰取得影响深远的胜利,但他也想迎合特朗普推动停火的努力,以获取同华盛顿缓和关系所带来的好处。
Vyacheslav Nikonov, a deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the lower house of the Russian Parliament, said that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were developing a “bilateral agenda” that was “not connected to Ukraine.”
俄罗斯议会下院外交事务委员会副主席维亚切斯拉夫·尼科诺夫表示,特朗普和普京正在制定“与乌克兰无关”的“双边议程”。
俄罗斯总统普京已明确表示,他要在与乌克兰达成停火协议之前寻求大范围的让步。
“Ukraine is running its course,” Mr. Nikonov said in an interview on the sidelines of the New Delhi conference, called the Raisina Dialogue. “The offensive is ongoing,” Mr. Nikonov added. “But I think that for Putin, relations with America are more important than the question of Ukraine specifically.”
“乌克兰事务正在按部就班地进行,”尼科诺夫在新德里名为“瑞辛纳对话”的会议间隙接受采访时说。“虽然攻势仍在继续,”尼科诺夫还说。“但我认为,对普京来说,与美国的关系比具体的乌克兰问题更为重要。”
Engaging with Mr. Trump, Moscow’s thinking seems to go, could unlock economic benefits as basic as spare parts for Russia’s Boeing jets and geopolitical gains as broad as a reduction in NATO’s presence in Europe. What’s less clear is whether Mr. Trump will use those hopes as leverage to get a better deal for Ukraine, and whether he will at some point lose patience with Mr. Putin.
莫斯科的想法似乎是,与特朗普建立关系可能会带来经济利益(比如为俄罗斯的波音飞机获取备件这样基本的问题)以及地缘政治利益(比如减少北约在欧洲的存在这样广泛的问题)。目前不清楚的是,特朗普是否会利用莫斯科的这些希望将其当作筹码,为乌克兰争取更好的协议,以及他是否会在某个时候对普京失去耐心。
“Mr. Trump likes quick deals,” said Aleksandr A. Dynkin, an international affairs specialist who advises the Russian Foreign Ministry. “If he sees that there are big difficulties, he may be disappointed and cast this problem aside.”
“特朗普喜欢尽快达成协议,”为俄罗斯外交部提供咨询的国际事务专家亚历山大·登金说。“如果他发现有很大的困难,他也许会失望,将这个问题抛在一边。”
As a result, Mr. Putin seems to be pulling out all the stops to hold Mr. Trump’s interest.
因此,普京似乎正在尽一切努力吸引特朗普的兴趣。
Meeting in Moscow with the White House envoy Steve Witkoff this month, Mr. Putin handed over a “beautiful portrait of President Trump” commissioned from a Russian artist, Mr. Witkoff said in an interview released on Saturday.
本月,在莫斯科与白宫特使史蒂夫·维特科夫见面时,普京向后者转交了一幅委托俄罗斯艺术家创作的“美丽的特朗普总统肖像”,维特科夫在上周六发布的采访中公开了这件事。
“It was such a gracious moment,” Mr. Witkoff told the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
“那是个非常亲切的时刻,”维特科夫对福克斯新闻前主持人塔克·卡尔森说。
俄罗斯无人机夜间袭击乌克兰东部第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区造成的破坏,摄于本月。
On Ukraine, Mr. Putin has shown no sign of budging from his far-reaching goals — a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, a rollback of the Western alliance in Central and Eastern Europe, limits on Ukraine’s military, and some level of influence over Ukraine’s domestic politics.
在乌克兰问题上,普京没有放弃自己远大目标的丝毫迹象,他希望得到乌克兰永远不加入北约的承诺,令西方联盟减少在中欧和东欧的存在,限制乌克兰的军力,并对乌克兰的国内政治保持某种程度的影响。
Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said that Russia would seek a “road map” to a broader deal before agreeing to any cease-fire.
莫斯科世界经济与国际关系研究所所长费奥多尔·沃伊托洛夫斯基称,俄罗斯在同意任何停火之前将寻找达成更广泛协议的“路线图”。
He also said that Russia could accept a United Nations peacekeeping force in Ukraine as long as it did not include troops from NATO countries.
他还表示,俄罗斯可以接受联合国向乌克兰派维和部队的做法,只要维和部队不包括来自北约国家的部队。
“For Russia, the long-term perspective is more valuable than a tactical cease-fire,” said Mr. Voitolovsky, who serves on advisory boards at the Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council. “We can emerge with a model that will allow Russia and the United States, and Russia and NATO, to coexist without interfering in each other’s spheres of interests,” he added.
“对俄罗斯来说,长远视角比战术停火更有价值,”在俄罗斯外交部和安全委员会担任顾问的沃伊托洛夫斯基说。“我们能找到一种模式,让俄罗斯与美国、俄罗斯与北约在互不干涉对方利益范围的情况下共存,”他还说。
To achieve such a deal, Russia is appealing to Mr. Trump’s business-minded focus. Mr. Voitolovsky contended that broad agreement over Ukraine was a prerequisite for U.S.-Russian cooperation, and that Mr. Trump, “as a businessman,” understood that Russian assets were currently undervalued.
为达成这种协议,俄罗斯试图打动特朗普的商业头脑。沃伊托洛夫斯基认为,就乌克兰问题达成广泛协议是俄美合作的先决条件,而“作为一名商人”,特朗普了解俄罗斯的资产目前被低估的情况。
Mr. Dynkin, the Russian international affairs specialist, said that the Kremlin could remove the United States from its list of “unfriendly countries” — a classification that restricts American companies’ ability to do business in Russia.
俄罗斯国际事务专家登金称,克里姆林宫可以把美国从其“不友好国家”名单中删除,该名单限制了美国公司在俄罗斯开展业务的能力。
He said that Moscow was particularly interested in negotiations over the aviation sector, given the challenges that Russian airlines face in servicing their American-made jets. The United States could allow the export of airplane spare parts and reinstate direct flights to Moscow, he said; Russia could let American airlines fly over Siberia, a right that Russia withdrew in 2022.
他说,考虑到俄罗斯航空公司在维修美制飞机方面的挑战,莫斯科对有关航空业务的谈判尤其感兴趣。他说,美国可以允许向俄罗斯出口飞机零部件,并且恢复直飞莫斯科的航班;俄罗斯可以允许美国航空公司飞越西伯利亚,俄罗斯在2022年停止了美国航空公司的这项权利。
Anastasia Likhacheva, dean of international affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would deliver quick and far-reaching sanctions relief.
莫斯科高等经济学院国际事务系主任阿纳斯塔西娅·利哈切娃表示,特朗普不太可能迅速提供影响深远的制裁减免。
But she said a thaw in relations with the United States could lead to reduced enforcement of sanctions and make it easier for Russian companies to operate globally by sending a signal that Russia was no longer a problematic partner.
但她说,与美国缓和关系可能会减少这些制裁的执行力度,并发出俄罗斯不再是有问题的合作伙伴这一信号,让俄罗斯公司在全球开展业务变得更容易。
“Such a detox,” she said, “could be useful and will expand our menu of possibilities.”
“这样的解毒也许有用,而且会让我们的可能性范围进一步扩大,”她说。