2024年12月17日
President Yoon Suk Yeol has changed the course of South Korea’s diplomacy like no leader before him. He put his country in lock step with the United States by countering North Korea with sanctions and joint military drills. He won Washington’s plaudits when he overcame a century of historical grievances Koreans held against Japan and helped lay the ground for trilateral cooperation to deter China.
尹锡悦总统以前任领导人未曾有过的方式改变了韩国的外交进程。他用制裁和联合军事演习让韩国与美国步调一致对抗朝鲜。为了达到遏制中国的目的,他走出了韩国与日本的百年历史恩怨,帮助奠定了韩日美三边合作的基础,从而赢得了华盛顿的赞誉。
He sang the praises of Western values such as freedom. He credited the alliance with Washington for making South Korea’s ascent as a global economic and cultural powerhouse possible. He moved South Korea more assertively onto the global stage, criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “a violation of international law” and selling weapons and ammunition to countries that supported Ukraine. And he stood up against China, which South Korea had long feared as a bully but needs as a trading partner, by opposing its “unlawful maritime claims” in the Indo-Pacific region.
他对自由等西方价值观赞誉有加。他认为,与美国的联盟使韩国有可能成为一个全球经济和文化强国。他让韩国更自信地走向世界舞台,批评俄罗斯入侵乌克兰“违反了国际法”,并向支持乌克兰的国家出售武器和弹药。他站出来反对中国在印度太平洋地区的“非法海事要求”,长期以来,韩国一直忌惮于中国的霸道,但也需要中国作为贸易伙伴。
Now, as he is locked out of power following his impeachment, his foreign policy — and Washington’s painstaking alliance-building in Northeast Asia — faces the prospect of unraveling. Mr. Yoon was not impeached for his foreign policy. But his diplomatic agenda — his greatest legacy — could be one of the biggest casualties of his downfall.
现在,随着弹劾让他失去权力,他的外交政策——以及美国为建立东北亚联盟所做的细心工作——面临瓦解的可能性。虽然尹锡悦遭弹劾不是因为他的外交政策,但他的外交议程(也是他最重要的政治遗产)可能会成为他垮台的最大牺牲品之一。
Mr. Yoon is suspended from office, and the Constitutional Court began preliminary deliberations on Monday as to whether to reinstate him or formally remove him. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, a nonelected official with no popular mandate, has stepped in as an interim leader as stipulated by the Constitution.
尹锡悦已被停职,韩国宪法法院周一开始对是否让他恢复原职还是正式罢免进行了初步审议。根据宪法规定,韩国国务院总理韩德洙目前代为行使总统职权。韩国总理并非选举产生,因而没有得到选民授权。
尹锡悦去年访美期间对美国参众两院发表讲话。
“Washington couldn’t have asked for a better ally and partner than the Yoon government,” said Duyeon Kim, a fellow with the Center for a New American Security. “Until we know who South Korea’s president is, the U.S. just lost a key partner at the leader level whose personal conviction aligns with Washington’s values and approach to regional and global issues, particularly when dealing with authoritarian states.”
“华盛顿不会找到比尹锡悦政府更好的盟友和伙伴了,”新美国安全中心的研究员金杜妍(音)说。“在我们知道谁将担任韩国总统之前,美国刚在领导人层次失去了一名关键合作伙伴,而且是在个人信念与华盛顿的价值观以及处理区域乃至全球问题的做法一致的合作伙伴,尤其是在与威权国家打交道方面。”
Mr. Yoon undid his own legacy when he abruptly declared martial law on Dec. 3, placing his country under military rule for the first time in 45 years. Citizens and opposition lawmakers rallied to force him to rescind it in six hours. Then they staged huge evening protests, until the Assembly impeached him on Saturday. Mr. Yoon had not responded to prosecutors’ demand that he present himself by last Saturday for questioning over whether he committed insurrection during his short-lived martial law. On Monday, they summoned him again.
12月3日,尹锡悦突然颁布戒严令,45年来第一次将韩国置于军事统治之下,从而毁掉了自己的政治遗产。韩国人民和反对派议员集体表示反对,迫使他在六小时后撤销了戒严令。后来人们还多次在夜晚举行大规模抗议活动,直到上周六韩国国会通过了总统弹劾案。检察官上周六要求尹锡悦出庭回答关于他在短暂的戒严令期间是否犯有叛乱罪的问询,他没有回应这一要求。检察官将周一再次传唤了他。
Decades ago, martial law in South Korea entailed arrests, torture and bloody crackdowns. This time, in a sign of how far South Korea’s democracy has matured, peaceful crowds achieved their goal without a single life being lost. Still, global powers reacted with shock and disapproval.
几十年前,韩国实行戒严令时伴随着逮捕、酷刑和血腥镇压。这次,在没有一人死亡的情况下,和平的民众就实现了他们的目标,标志着韩国的民主制度已成熟。尽管如此,世界上的主要国家对戒严令的反应都是震惊和反对。
“Yoon Suk Yeol’s surreal declaration of martial law laid bare his complete miscalculation of South Korea’s position in the world, let alone as Northeast Asia’s stabilizing force,” said Alexis Dudden, a professor of history at the University of Connecticut.
“尹锡悦匪夷所思地宣布戒严令,暴露出他完全误判了韩国在世界上的地位,更不用说韩国作为东北亚稳定力量的地位了,”康涅狄格大学历史系教授亚历克西斯·杜登说。
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin canceled a visit to Seoul in the wake of Mr. Yoon’s martial law decree. News media in Japan reported that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also shelved plans for a possible trip to Seoul in January. Mr. Ishiba’s office said the visit had never been confirmed and declined to comment further.
尹锡悦颁布戒严令后,美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀取消了对首尔的访问。日本新闻媒体报道称,石破茂首相也搁置了明年1月可能访问首尔的计划。石破茂的办公室说访问计划从未确定,并拒绝进一步置评。
尹锡悦、日本首相石破茂(右),以及出席老挝峰会的其他国家领导人,摄于今年10月。
“Ironically, Yoon was held up as a paragon of an allied democratic leader, and his ham-handed attempt to impose martial law is an egg in the face” for the outgoing Biden administration, said John Delury, a Korea expert and visiting professor at Luiss University in Rome.
“讽刺的是,尹锡悦曾被奉为民主盟友领导人的典范,他颁布戒严令的笨拙尝试让(即将离任的拜登政府)很没面子,”韩国问题专家、罗马路易斯大学客座教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。
Mr. Yoon’s undoing throws both South Korea and U.S. policy in the region into deep uncertainty, at a time when North Korea is escalating its nuclear threat and the incoming administration of the unpredictable Donald J. Trump is poised to rock the alliance with Seoul.
在朝鲜正在升级核威胁、不可预测的特朗普政府即将上任并准备动摇美韩联盟之际,尹锡悦的误判让韩国以及美国的东亚政策面临极度的不确定性。
South Koreans have traditionally been wary of great powers, reflecting their deep grievances over Japanese colonial rule and the division of the Korean Peninsula by Moscow and Washington at the end of World War II. Seoul had kept Japan at arm’s length, even though Washington urged its two key allies to work closely together to deter China and North Korea. It had also sought diplomatic balance between the United States and China. Its more progressive leaders, like Mr. Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, doggedly pursued dialogue with North Korea, even causing friction with Washington, which tended to emphasize sanctions.
传统上,韩国人对大国持谨慎态度,这反映了他们对日本殖民统治以及二战结束后莫斯科和华盛顿将朝鲜半岛一分为二的深度不满。尽管华盛顿早就敦促美国在东亚的两个关键盟友密切合作,以遏制中国和朝鲜,但韩国一直与日本存在隔阂。韩国还曾试图在美中之间走外交钢丝。韩国更进步的领导人,比如尹锡悦的前任文在寅,曾坚持不懈地与朝鲜进行对话,在这个问题上甚至与美国产生了摩擦,后者更多地强调制裁。
Mr. Yoon changed all that.
尹锡悦改变了这一切。
He has said South Korea should no longer be “ambiguous” over whose side it is on in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing. In his single most daring foreign policy initiative, he broke a logjam in relations with Japan by promising that Seoul would no longer seek compensation for victims of forced labor during Japan’s colonial rule. The move was unpopular in South Korea, with angry people pouring onto the streets to denounce him as a traitor.
他说过,韩国不应在美中较量选边站问题上再“含糊其辞”。他在外交政策上发起了一个最大胆的倡议,通过承诺韩国将不再为在日本殖民统治朝鲜半岛时代的强迫劳动受害者寻求赔偿,打破了该国与日本关系的长期僵局。这个做法在韩国不受欢迎,愤怒的民众曾走上街头谴责他是卖国贼。
尹锡悦和中国领导人习近平去年在旧金山。
“It relied most heavily on his own personal commitment, lacking broader support from the Korean public,” said Daniel Sneider, a lecturer of East Asian studies at Stanford University. Of all of Mr. Yoon’s changes, the progress made in Korea-Japan relations is most endangered, he added.
“这个倡议主要靠的是他个人的承诺,缺乏韩国公众的普遍支持,”斯坦福大学的东亚研究讲师丹尼尔·斯奈德说。在尹锡悦的所有改革中,韩日关系的改善受到的威胁最大,他补充道。
A progressive leader from the main opposition Democratic Party is likely to win the next election, and the party favors maintaining a more delicate balancing act between Washington and Beijing, as well as dialogue with North Korea.
来自主要的反对党民主党的一名进步派领导人可能会在下次总统大选中获胜,该党主张在华盛顿与北京之间保持更微妙的平衡,并主张与朝鲜进行对话。
“If, as seems likely, the Democratic Party regains power, South Korea’s foreign policy seems poised to shift toward appeasement of North Korea, deference to China, hostility toward Japan, and skepticism of the United States,” said Danny Russel, vice president of the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute.
“如果像看来可能发生的那样,韩国民主党重新掌权,韩国的外交政策似乎将转向绥靖朝鲜、顺从中国、敌视日本,以及怀疑美国,”纽约的亚洲协会政策研究所副所长丹尼·拉塞尔说。
In an interview with The New York Times last week, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party leader, tried to assuage such concerns. He called Mr. Yoon “unnecessarily submissive” toward Japan and “too antagonistic” toward China. But he said he supported trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo.
上周接受《纽约时报》采访时,韩国民主党领导人李在明试图缓解这种担忧。虽然他称尹锡悦对日本“过分顺从”、对中国“过于敌视”,但他说,他支持与美国和日本的三边合作关系。
“We fully understand the United States’ stance toward China, and we should conform to it,” Mr. Lee said. “But we need a relationship with China where we can seek practical interests to the extent that we are still in accordance with the U.S. policy on China and we do not harm our relations with Washington.”
“我们完全理解美国的对华立场,我们应该顺应这一立场,”李在明说。“但我们需要与中国有一种关系,让我们能在符合美国的对华政策、不损害我们与华盛顿的关系的条件下寻求实际利益。”
韩国民主党领导人李在明上周在首尔。
South Korea has long profited both from strong security ties with the United States, its only treaty ally, and from booming economic relations with China, its biggest trade partner. But in recent years, it has found itself increasingly squeezed between the two giants as their rivalry intensified, with Washington pressuring Seoul into joining its policy of denying China advanced semiconductors.
长期以来,韩国一直受益于与美国的牢固安全关系(美国是韩国唯一的条约盟友),以及与中国蓬勃发展的经济关系(中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴)。但近年来,随着这两大超级大国之间的竞争加剧,韩国已发现自己受到来自两边越来越大的压力,华盛顿要求首尔加入到美国拒绝向中国提供先进半导体的政策中来。
Mr. Sneider said that South Korean progressives “are first and foremost Korean nationalists — and they can be quite skeptical and even hostile regarding China.”
斯奈德说,韩国进步人士“首先是韩国民族主义者——他们在对待中国上可能持相当大的怀疑甚至是敌视态度。”
“But they are also not interested in having Korea act as an instrument of American global politics unless it fits Korea’s own national interests,” he said.
“但他们也不想让韩国成为美国全球政治的工具,除非那样做符合韩国自身的国家利益,”他说。
In his defiant speeches in the past two weeks, Mr. Yoon described South Korea as under attack by “North Korean followers and anti-state forces” at home and by threats from overseas. He cited two instances of Chinese nationals using drones for possible espionage.
过去两周里,尹锡悦多次发表挑衅性讲话,称韩国受到国内“亲朝鲜反国家势力”的攻击和来自海外的威胁。他给出了两个中国人在韩国使用无人机可能在进行间谍活动的例子。
Mr. Yoon’s comments were “deeply upsetting” and his Chinese spy allegations “unfounded,” said Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokeswoman in Beijing.
尹锡悦的言论让中国“深感意外和不满”,中国坚决反对他“炒作莫须有”的间谍指控,中国外交部发言人毛宁说。
South Korea’s interim caretaker government has little mandate or bandwidth for initiatives, pending the decision by the Constitutional Court.
在韩国宪法法院作出裁决之前,该国的看守政府几乎没有权力或精力推出任何新措施。
That leaves it in a weakened position when Mr. Trump takes office, given his threat to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea unless it pays more for them.
这让韩国的地位在特朗普上任时遭到进一步削弱,特朗普威胁要从韩国撤军,除非韩国为驻韩美军支付更多费用。
“With the incoming Trump administration’s transactional view of American alliances, Yoon’s temper tantrum may yet prove Pyongyang’s best Christmas present ever,” Ms. Dudden said.
“考虑到即将上任的特朗普政府对美国盟友采取的交易看法,尹锡悦的易怒性情也许会被证明是平壤有史以来得到的最好圣诞礼物,”杜登说。