Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany has spent the opening months of this year sketching out a new vision for Europe in a world increasingly shaped by the bullying behavior of superpowers.

在今年开年数月间，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨勾勒出了一个在超级大国霸凌行为日益主导的世界中欧洲的新愿景。

His idea is roughly this: Europe should cut its dependence on China and the United States to avoid being pushed around on the global stage — but it should not cut them off entirely.

他的核心主张大致如下：欧洲应减少对中美两国的依赖，避免在全球舞台上受制于人——但不应完全切断与中国和美国的联系。

This week, Mr. Merz will road-test that idea on a trip to Beijing and Hangzhou, China. It will be his first visit to the country since he became chancellor last year, challenging his ability to address tensions between Berlin and Beijing — on trade, Taiwan, Ukraine and a host of other issues — without further inflaming them.

本周，默茨将前往中国北京和杭州，对这一想法进行实地考察。这是他去年就任总理后首次访华，将考验他能否应对柏林与北京之间在贸易、台湾、乌克兰等诸多议题上的紧张关系，同时避免进一步激化矛盾。

German officials suggest Mr. Merz will seek to minimize conflict with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. But they also say he will push Mr. Xi on sore spots in the countries’ relationship, including Chinese economic policies that hurt German manufacturers and Beijing’s backing for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia four years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

德国官员透露，默茨将力求避免与中国最高领导人习近平发生冲突。但他们同时表示，默茨将就两国关系中的敏感议题向习近平施压，包括损害德国制造商利益的中国经济政策，以及在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰四年后北京仍支持俄罗斯总统普京等问题。

Mr. Merz is expected to stress that Germany and Europe are strengthening their military defense capability and economic competitiveness — effectively, a vision for how Europe can build its own power to rival China and America.

默茨预计将强调德国和欧洲正在增强军事防御能力和经济竞争力——实质上是在阐述欧洲如何建立自身实力以与中美抗衡的愿景。

And while Mr. Merz will emphasize the need for improved ties with China, he has made clear that he still sees the United States as Germany’s more natural ally.

虽然默茨将强调改善与中国关系的必要性，但他已明确表示，相比之下美国仍是德国更天然的盟友。

At a conference of his center-right Christian Democrats last weekend, the chancellor said China was “claiming the right to define a new multilateral order according to its own rules. Freedom of expression, freedom of religion and freedom of the press are not part of this understanding.”

在上周末举行的中右翼政党基督教民主党会议上，这位德国总理说，中国“声称有权按照自己的规则定义新的多边秩序。表达自由、宗教自由和新闻自由都不在这一范畴之列”。

Given that, Mr. Merz added, “wouldn’t it be right that we Europeans, together with the Americans, have something better to offer in response to our shared understanding of freedom, indeed our shared image of humanity?”

有鉴于此，默茨补充说，“我们欧洲人和美国人一起，难道不应该提供一些更好的东西，来呼应我们对自由的共同理解，乃至我们对人类共同形象的理解？”

The chancellor’s trip will be the fifth to China by the leader of a U.S. ally since December. Chinese officials appear eager to cast the visit as yet another important country turning toward Beijing for stability amid the uncertainty unleashed by President Trump. His administration has disrupted global trade with a flurry of tariffs, while pulling back on America’s longstanding security guarantees for Europe.

这是自12月以来第五位美国盟国领导人访华。中国官员似乎急于将此次访问描绘成又一个重要国家在特朗普总统带来的不确定性中转向北京寻求稳定。特朗普政府通过一系列关税措施扰乱了全球贸易，同时收回了美国对欧洲的长期安全保证。

2022年，梅赛德斯-奔驰在中国的生产线。尽管面临中国竞争对手日益增长的威胁，默茨仍将中国视为德国工业的关键市场。

In seeking closer ties with Germany, the world’s third-largest economy and the industrial heart of Europe, Mr. Xi is attempting to further splinter the United States from its historical allies. Mr. Xi has already reset ties with Canada and Britain during their leaders’ visits to Beijing this year.

在寻求与德国——世界第三大经济体和欧洲的工业中心——建立更密切的关系时，习近平正试图进一步分裂美国与其历史盟友的关系。在加拿大和英国领导人今年访问北京期间，习近平与这两个国家重新建立了纽带。

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, recently signaled at the Munich Security Conference that Beijing wanted to draw Berlin closer, and called on the two countries to upgrade bilateral ties to a “new level.” Mr. Wang also said China supported Berlin’s “strategic autonomy,” which Beijing understands to mean the weakening of American influence over Germany.

中国最高外交官员王毅近日在慕尼黑安全会议上表示，北京希望拉近与柏林的关系，并呼吁两国将双边关系“迈上新水平”。王毅还表示中国支持柏林的“战略自主”，北京将其理解为削弱美国对德国的影响力。

“The aim of China’s leadership is quite simple,” said Noah Barkin, an expert on European-Chinese relations at Rhodium Group, a research firm. “It wants to present itself as a guarantor of stability in a world rocked by U.S. unilateralism and aggression. The sequence of European visits are meant to underline this message and reinforce a narrative of trans-Atlantic division.”

“中国领导层的目标很简单，”研究机构荣鼎咨询的欧中关系专家诺亚·巴尔金表示，“在一个被美国单边主义和侵略所震撼的世界中，中国希望将自己塑造成一个稳定的保障者。一连串的欧洲领导人访问旨在强调这一信息，并强化跨大西洋关系的分裂叙事。”

But there is still plenty of division between Germany and China, particularly on economic issues. After decades of courtship by German industry and chancellors, including Angela Merkel, the country’s former leader and Mr. Merz’s longtime intraparty rival, China was Germany’s top trading partner last year.

但德中之间仍存在诸多分歧，尤其在经济领域。经过德国工业界及历任总理（包括默茨在党内的老对手、前总理默克尔）数十年的拉拢，中国去年已成为德国最大贸易伙伴。

Mr. Merz still sees China as a crucial export market and an incubator of innovation for German companies with significant operations there. He will visit two of those companies’ operations — Mercedes-Benz and Siemens, as well as China’s Unitree Robotics — on his trip, along with a delegation of 30 German business leaders.

默茨依然视中国为德国企业的关键出口市场和创新孵化器，这些企业在华业务规模可观。他此行将率领30位德国商界领袖组成的代表团，并将考察梅赛德斯-奔驰和西门子两家企业，以及中国的宇树科技。

But he appears more candid than Ms. Merkel was a decade ago about the need to protect German industry from Chinese competition, and he is already eyeing alternative sources of consumer demand for German products. Notably, Mr. Merz visited India before he visited China as chancellor.

但他似乎比十年前的默克尔更加坦率地表示，需要保护德国工业免受中国竞争的冲击，并已着手开拓德国产品的替代消费市场。值得注意的是，默茨在以总理身份访华之前，先访问了印度。

In Beijing, Mr. Merz is expected to raise concerns with Chinese officials over their subsidies for domestic manufacturing and the artificially low value of its currency, the renminbi. Both are being used to help China flood European markets with low-cost products that Mr. Barkin estimates are contributing to the loss of nearly 10,000 German industrial jobs a month.

在北京，预计默茨将向中国官员提出的关切包括中国对国内制造业的补贴，以及人为压低人民币币值问题。这两项措施都在助推中国向欧洲市场倾销低价产品，据巴尔金估计，这导致德国每月损失近万工业就业机会。

Officials from both sides have expressed hope that the discussions could yield modest agreements, perhaps in opening some trade in agriculture. But many analysts say Mr. Merz’s primary goal should be striking a new tone with Mr. Xi.

双方官员都表示希望讨论能达成一些小的协议，例如在农产品贸易领域实现部分开放。但许多分析人士表示，默茨的首要目标应该是与习近平达成新的对话基调。

“There is very little to be secured from the Chinese side right now,” said Thorsten Benner, co-founder and director of the Global Public Policy Institute, a Berlin-based think tank. “The most important thing is that he sends a clear message about defending Germany’s economic interests.”

柏林智库全球公共政策研究所联合创始人兼所长托尔斯滕·本纳表示：“目前中方能提供的保障寥寥无几。最重要的是，他要发出明确信号，表明将捍卫德国的经济利益。”

Beijing has urged Mr. Merz to further open Germany’s and Europe’s market to Chinese exports. That includes for Chinese electric vehicles, which pose a direct threat to Germany’s legacy auto industry.

北京敦促默茨进一步向中国出口产品开放德国及欧洲市场，包括对德国传统汽车工业构成直接威胁的中国电动汽车。

Mr. Xi has some leverage in the discussions. Germany’s 40 leading blue-chip companies rely on China for more than 10 percent of their revenues, according to research from Deutsche Bank. Many German manufacturers would grind to a halt without vital Chinese industrial inputs like rare earth minerals. Mr. Xi has already demonstrated he is willing to throttle supplies when Chinese interests are threatened.

习近平在讨论中有一定的筹码。据德意志银行研究，德国40家蓝筹企业逾10%营收依赖中国市场。若失去稀土等关键工业原料供应，众多德国制造商将陷入停滞。习近平已表明，当中国利益受损时，他会毫不犹豫地实施供应限制。

Chinese officials are likely to push Mr. Merz to support Beijing’s claim to the self-governed island of Taiwan. Germany does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country, but it maintains diplomatic relations with the territory. China rebuked Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, last year after he criticized Beijing for its “increasingly aggressive behavior” in the Taiwan Strait.

中方官员可能敦促默茨支持北京对自治岛屿台湾的主权主张。德国虽不承认台湾主权国家地位，但与该地区保持外交关系。去年德国外交部长瓦德普尔批评北京在台湾海峡采取“日益咄咄逼人的行为”，后遭到中方斥责。

Mr. Merz, in turn, is likely to push Mr. Xi to pressure Mr. Putin to end the war in Ukraine, though in careful language. Mr. Merz sometimes says there are three men who could force the war to an immediate end: Mr. Putin, Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump.

反过来，默茨也可能推动习近平向普京施压，迫使普京结束乌克兰战争，尽管默茨的措辞会很谨慎。默茨曾说，有三个人可以迫使战争立即结束：普京、习近平和特朗普。

The chancellor will see two of the three in the span of a week. A few days after returning to Berlin from China, he is scheduled to fly to Washington to visit Mr. Trump.

这位总理将在一周内见到这三个人中的两个。从中国返回柏林几天后，他将飞往华盛顿拜访特朗普。