The German government collapsed on Monday as Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in Parliament, deepening a crisis of leadership across Europe at a time of mounting economic and security challenges.

周一，德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨未通过议会信任投票，德国执政联盟瓦解。在经济和安全挑战日益严峻之际，欧洲各地领导层面临的危机进一步加深。

The war in Ukraine has escalated, with Russia issuing increasing dire threats against Kyiv and its supporters. President-elect Donald J. Trump is set to take office in the United States, raising new questions over Europeans’ trade relations and military defense. The government of France — Germany’s partner in leading Europe — fell earlier this month.

随着俄罗斯对基辅及其支持者发出日益严峻的威胁，乌克兰战争已经升级。美国候任总统特朗普即将就职，欧洲的贸易关系和军事防御面临新的问题。法国政府——德国在欧洲领导地位的合作伙伴——本月初垮台。

And now, Europe’s largest economy will be in the hands of a caretaker government, ahead of elections early next year.

现在，在明年初举行选举之前，欧洲最大的经济体将由看守政府掌管。

On Monday, German lawmakers voted to dissolve the existing government by a vote of 394 to 207, with 116 abstaining.

周一，德国国会以394票对207票、116票弃权的投票结果解散了现有政府。

Coming just nine months before parliamentary elections had been scheduled to happen, the vote was an extraordinary moment for Germany. The elections, now expected on Feb. 23, will be only the fourth snap election in the 75 years since the modern state was founded. The moment reflects a new era of more fractious and unstable politics in a country long known for durable coalitions built on plodding consensus.

距离议会选举原定时间仅差九个月，这次表决对德国来说是一个非同寻常的时刻。选举预计于2月23日举行，这将是现代德国成立75年来的第四次临时选举。这一时刻反映出德国政治进入了一个更加分裂和不稳定的新时代，而长期以来，这个国家以在缓慢协商共识基础上建立持久联盟而闻名。

Mr. Scholz had little choice but to take the unusual step of calling for the confidence vote after his three-party coalition splintered in November, ending months of bitter internal squabbling and leaving him without a parliamentary majority to pass laws or a budget.

11月，朔尔茨的三党联盟分裂，他别无选择，只能采取不同寻常的措施，要求进行信任投票。此举结束了数月来激烈的内部争吵，那导致他无法获得议会多数票来通过法律或预算。

But the country’s political uncertainty is likely to last a month or more, with a new permanent government not forming until parties have agreed on a coalition, probably in April or May.

但该国的政治不确定性可能会持续一个月或更长时间，新的常任政府要等到各方就联盟达成一致后才能成立，时间可能是4月或5月。

Seven parties will go into the campaign for Parliament with a realistic chance of gaining seats, and some on the political fringes — especially on the right — are poised for strong showings, according to polls. Mr. Scholz is widely expected to be ousted as chancellor, with polls suggesting that the conservative Christian Democrats are poised to finish first, well ahead of Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats.

根据民意调查，将有七个政党参加议会竞选，并有机会获得席位，一些边缘政党——尤其是右翼政党——有望取得强劲表现。人们普遍预计朔尔茨将被迫下台，民意调查显示，保守的德国基督教民主联盟有望率先获胜，远远领先于朔尔茨的社会民主党。

The campaign is likely to be dominated by several issues that have vexed Europe in recent years. Both Germany and France are mired in debates over how best to revive their struggling economies, bridge growing social divides, ease voter anxieties over immigration and buttress national defense.

竞选活动很可能被近年来困扰欧洲的几个问题所主导。德国和法国都陷入了几个议题的争论：如何能以最佳方式重振陷入困境的经济、弥合日益扩大的社会分歧、缓解选民对移民的担忧以及加强国防。

They and their European Union partners are looking warily toward Russia, where President Vladimir V. Putin has escalated threats about the use of nuclear weapons amid Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

两国及其欧盟伙伴都对俄罗斯保持警惕，在莫斯科针对乌克兰的战争中，俄罗斯总统普京升级了使用核武器的威胁。

They are also fretting over their economic relationship with China, which has grown into a formidable competitor for many of their most important industries but has not become the booming consumer market for European products that leaders long envisioned.

两国还对与中国的经济关系感到担忧，后者已经成为两国许多最重要行业的强大竞争对手，但并未成为两国领导人长期设想的欧洲产品蓬勃发展的消费市场。

And they are bracing for the start of a new presidential term for Mr. Trump, who has threatened a trade war and the end of the United States’ commitment to NATO, which has guaranteed Europe’s security for 75 years.

两国正准备迎接特朗普新一届总统任期的开始，特朗普此前曾威胁要发动贸易战，并终止美国对北约的承诺。75年来，北约一直保证着欧洲的安全。

The combination of challenges has proved politically unsettling. President Emmanuel Macron of France on Friday named his fourth prime minister in a year and is under mounting pressure to resign. Mr. Macron says he will stay in office and try to repair the deep fissures in his government over the 2025 budget.

所有这些挑战结合在一起在政治上令人感到不安。法国总统马克龙上周五任命了一年内的第四任总理，并面临着越来越大的辞职压力。马克龙表示，他将继续留任，并努力修复政府在2025年预算问题上的严重分歧。

Mr. Scholz’s government faced similar budget challenges, along with growing concerns about how to rebuild the German military in the face of a belligerent Russia and Mr. Trump’s criticism of NATO.

朔尔茨政府也面临着类似的预算挑战，与此同时，在一个好战的俄罗斯和特朗普对北约的批评面前，如何重建德国军队也令外界愈发感到担忧。

The German economy has stagnated, narrowly avoiding recession this fall, and its parties will spend the campaign arguing over how best to revitalize it. Disagreements over how to balance the budget — and over whether to increase government borrowing or implement further austerity measures — helped to deepen the fissures in Mr. Scholz’s government before it split apart.

德国经济停滞不前，今年秋季勉强避免了衰退。在竞选期间，德国各党派将就如何最好地振兴经济展开辩论。关于如何平衡预算以及究竟是增加政府借款还是实施进一步紧缩措施的分歧，加剧了朔尔茨政府内部的裂痕，最终导致政府分裂。

11月，柏林。德法政局动荡，欧盟在关键时刻出现领导层真空。

It is an inopportune time for Germany to be plunged into a grueling winter election campaign and a political freeze that could last until a new government takes power.

德国此时陷入艰苦的冬季竞选活动，以及一场可能持续到新政府上台的政治僵局，实在是一个不合时宜的时刻。

“The timing is absolutely terrible for the E.U. — basically, these multiple crises are hitting the E.U. at the worst possible time, because the bloc’s traditional engine is busy with itself,” Jana Puglierin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, referring to Germany and France.

“对欧盟来说，时机非常糟糕——基本上，欧盟是在最糟糕的时候面临这些多重危机，因为欧盟的传统引擎正忙于自身事务，”欧洲对外关系委员会的贾娜·普格利林在谈到德国和法国时表示。

The war in Ukraine and the need to bolster Germany’s military — and what that will cost — will be among the urgent issues likely to dominate the election campaign, along with the floundering economy, failing infrastructure, immigration and the rise of the political extremes.

乌克兰战争和加强德国军事力量的必要性——以及相关的费用支出数字——将成为可能主导竞选活动的紧迫​​问题，其他问题包括经济不景气、基础设施落后、移民问题和政治极端势力的崛起。

Badly behind in the polls, Mr. Scholz is planning to highlight his caution in supplying Ukraine with weapons, especially sophisticated offensive hardware.

在民意调查中大幅落后的朔尔茨计划强调自己在向乌克兰提供武器，尤其是精密的进攻性武器方面持谨慎态度。

Under Mr. Scholz’s watch, Germany became the biggest European donor of weapons to Ukraine, according to a ranking by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. But as some voters are growing nervous about Russia’s threats, he prefers to point to his decision not to export the long-range missile system Taurus, which could have antagonized Mr. Putin.

根据德国研究机构基尔世界经济研究所的排名，在朔尔茨的领导下，德国已成为向乌克兰提供武器最多的欧洲国家。但由于一些选民对俄罗斯的威胁越来越感到不安，他更愿意指出自己不出口远程导弹系统“金牛座”的决定，因为这一举动可能会激怒普京。

Mr. Scholz, who used his address to lawmakers just before the vote on Monday as a campaign speech, said that he had promised President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine continued support, but also made clear that he remained cautious about what Germany would deliver.

在周一表决前，朔尔茨利用自己向议员发表讲话的机会开展了一番竞选演讲，他说，他曾承诺继续支持乌克兰总统泽连斯基，但也对其明确表示，他对德国能给予的实际支持持谨慎态度。

“We do nothing that jeopardizes our own security,” he said in the speech, which lasted nearly half an hour. “And that is why we do not supply cruise missiles, a long-range weapon that can reach deeply into Russia.”

“我们不会做任何危及自身安全的事情，”他在近半小时的演讲中说道。“这就是我们不提供巡航导弹的原因，这种远程武器可以深入俄罗斯。”

The strategy appears to be working. Since the end of the three-party coalition, Mr. Scholz’s personal approval ratings have risen somewhat. But his party is still polling at around 17 percent, about half of what the conservatives are projected to win.

这一战略似乎正在奏效。自三党联盟结束以来，朔尔茨的个人支持率有所上升。但他的政党在民意调查中的支持率仍然在17%左右，约为保守党预计获胜支持率的一半。

Mr. Scholz will have to fight hard to persuade voters to give him another chance. For now, it is Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union party and a longtime figure on the political stage, who is widely expected to be the next chancellor, given his party’s strong lead in polls.

朔尔茨必须努力说服选民再给他一次机会。目前，保守的基督教民主联盟党领袖、长期活跃在政坛的弗里德里希·默茨被普遍认为将成为下一任总理，因为他的政党在民意调查中遥遥领先。

Speaking to lawmakers on Wednesday, Mr. Merz accused Mr. Scholz and his government of failing on a number of fronts.

周三在对议员发表讲话时，默茨指责朔尔茨及其政府在多个方面都失败了。