For the past three decades, as China’s economy has developed into a global powerhouse, investment has grown reliably each year.

过去30年来，随着中国发展成全球经济强国，投资额几乎年年稳定增长。

That is about to change. This year, China’s investments in assets like new factories, public infrastructure and housing are expected to fall for the first time since the late 1980s, ushering in a more conservative era for an economy that has reshaped the global order with years of robust growth.

这种情况即将发生变化。今年，中国对新建工厂、公共基础设施和住房等资产的投资预计将出现自上世纪80年代末以来的首次下降。这标志着以多年强劲增长重塑全球秩序的中国经济将进入一个更为保守的时代。

The shift also signals that investing in China is no longer a surefire bet, even as Beijing continues to project confidence with economic growth estimates of 5 percent. But, as is often the case with the country’s economic data, the investment slump has raised more questions than answers.

这一转变也表明，对中国进行投资已不再是“稳赚不赔”的选择，尽管北京仍在以5%的经济增长预期来展现信心。不过，和中国经济数据常见的情况一样，投资下滑引发的疑问远多于答案。

A real estate crisis in China has dragged on for five years with no end in sight, sapping the strength from one of the economy’s pillars. Local governments, strapped for cash because of the property downturn, are not pouring money into infrastructure projects as they did during previous periods of economic malaise. Beijing’s crackdown on excessive competition among Chinese manufacturers has chilled the climate for capital investment to fuel expansion.

中国的房地产危机已持续五年，仍看不到尽头，这让经济的一大支柱元气大伤。由于房地产市场低迷，地方政府财政吃紧，已不像以往经济放缓时期那样大举投入基础设施建设。与此同时，中国政府打击制造业过度竞争，也让用于扩张的资本投资环境明显降温。

From January to October, a broad measure called fixed-asset investment has fallen 1.7 percent from the same period last year. The slide began in the second half of this year and accelerated with a sharp, double-digit decline in October. Analysts believe that investment dipped again in November, with that data scheduled to be released on Monday.

今年1月至10月，一项被称为“固定资产投资”的综合指标同比下降了1.7%。这一跌势始于今年下半年，并在10月出现两位数的急剧下滑。分析人士认为，11月投资可能继续下跌，相关数据预计将于周一公布。

Investment in property, infrastructure and manufacturing — the three major components that make up the figure — are all declining at the same time. In the past, a downturn in one area was offset by spending in another segment. It is rare for all three pillars of investment to fall at once. The government typically has stepped in to manage downturns by bolstering real estate or spending lavishly on infrastructure. Beijing has been reluctant to act boldly this year to help.

房地产、基础设施和制造业——构成该指标的三大板块——如今同时下行。过去，某一领域的低迷往往会被其他领域的支出所抵消，三大投资支柱同时下滑的情况十分罕见。以往，政府通常会通过托底房地产或大规模增加基础设施支出来应对下行周期，但今年北京方面一直不愿采取大胆的措施出手相助。

“This is a historically significant change,” said Dan Wang, a director on Eurasia Group’s China team. “This is a different style of managing the economy in the short term.”

“这是一次具有历史意义的变化，”欧亚集团中国团队主管王丹表示。“这是一种不同的短期经济管控方式。”

去年，中国武汉的一个建筑工地。中国房地产市场显著放缓是投资下降的一个主要因素。

Ms. Wang said that this more passive approach suggests Chinese leaders are confident in the continued strength of exports, which have fueled a record trade surplus despite rising protectionism and growing global concern about the flood of inexpensive Chinese goods.

王丹认为，这种较为被动的做法表明，中国领导层对出口持续保持强劲抱有信心。尽管保护主义抬头、全球对大量廉价中国商品的担忧加剧，但出口仍推动中国创下了贸易顺差新高。

Instead of pumping money into the economy by building more airports and high-speed railroad stations, highways and bridges, local governments are holding back. And for the property sector, there has been no industrywide bailout or comprehensive plan to spur real estate investment.

地方政府没有再通过修建机场、高铁站、公路和桥梁来向经济注入资金，而是选择按兵不动。对于房地产行业，既没有出台行业范围内的纾困措施，也没有制定刺激房地产投资的全面方案。

The investment drought is playing out urgently in the boardrooms of China Vanke, one of the country’s largest property developers, which is now teetering on the edge of possible financial collapse.

在万科的董事会议室里，投资匮乏的困境正迫切地显现出来。万科是中国最大的房地产开发商之一，如今正徘徊在可能发生财务崩溃的边缘。

Vanke, unable to pay its debts, has leaned on its top shareholder, the state-owned firm Shenzhen Metro, to cover its debt obligations. But last month it asked bondholders to delay repayment of a bond for the first time, signaling that state financial support may have reached its limit. A deadline on some of its debt looms on Monday, and Vanke may need creditors to accept a delay in getting paid.

由于无力偿还债务，万科一直依赖其第一大股东、国有企业深圳地铁来履行偿债义务。但上个月，万科首次请求债券持有人推迟还款，释放出国家金融支持可能已接近极限的信号。部分债务的最后期限将在周一到来，万科或将再次需要债权人同意延期付款。

Chinese officials have started to show some alarm at the plunge in investment, which was listed as a policy priority for 2026 in a plan announced on Thursday by Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

中国官员已开始对投资大幅下滑显露担忧。中国领导人习近平上周四公布的一项规划中，投资被列为2026年的政策重点之一。

The deep problems in the property sector — too many apartments and long-running drops in their value — have shaken business confidence.

房地产领域的深层问题——住房供应过剩以及房价长期下跌——已经动摇了企业信心。

Chien Ting-tsai, who has run a manufacturing and real estate development company in Zhuhai, a city in southern China, for more than three decades, said customers are not expanding their businesses now because the economy is weak. He said the pipeline of design contracts has thinned dramatically.

在中国南方城市珠海经营制造和房地产开发公司30多年的简廷在表示，由于经济疲软，客户目前不再扩大业务，设计合同的数量已明显减少。

“Some manufacturers have shut down factories and frozen all investment in new facilities,” said Mr. Chien, 69, who is from Taiwan and has worked in China since the 1990s. “Everyone is frantically selling off fixed assets because they’re uncertain about the future.”

“有些制造商已经关闭工厂，冻结了所有新设施的投资，”这位69岁的台商表示，他自上世纪90年代起就在中国工作。“大家都在拼命抛售固定资产，因为对未来没有信心。”

广州的一个招聘会上，纺织厂的代表正在招聘工人。

Pam Jiang, a sales assistant at Fashiontex International Limited, a textile company with roughly 150 employees in Jiangsu Province, one of China’s main fabric manufacturing hubs, said the domestic textile industry is pulling back on investments in facilities.

翀尚时代纺织科技有限公司是江苏省一家有约150名员工的纺织企业，该公司的销售助理帕姆·姜（音）说，中国国内的纺织行业正在收缩，对厂房和设备的投资明显减少。

“The textile industry in China is basically stagnant and downsizing,” she said.

“纺织业在国内基本上是按兵不动和缩减规模，”她说。

She attributed the drop in investment to rising labor costs and uncertainty about tariffs. Instead of expanding domestically, Ms. Jiang said, many Chinese textile manufacturers are investing abroad in countries such as Vietnam and Egypt.

她将投资下降归因于劳动力成本上升以及对关税的不确定性。姜女士表示，许多中国纺织企业没有选择在国内扩张，而是将投资转向越南、埃及等国家。

The slowdown in manufacturing investment has coincided with the government’s campaign against involution, a term for the ruthless competition in which Chinese companies wage profit-eroding price wars to gain market share and outlast rivals. Provincial or city governments have often fueled such races to the bottom by providing incentives and support to foster local champions. This produced an oversupply of well-funded companies, each ready to add more products than customers want to buy.

制造业投资放缓的同时，政府还在推进“反内卷”行动。“内卷”指的是中国企业为抢占市场份额、击败竞争对手展开的残酷价格战，这种价格战会严重损害利润。省级或市级政府过去往往通过提供激励措施和支持来扶持本地龙头企业，从而加剧了这种恶性竞争。这导致资金充裕的企业数量过剩，每家企业都准备推出远超消费者需求的产品。

But some economists say Beijing’s efforts to slow that process down have given local governments permission to hold back on throwing money at manufacturing.

但一些经济学家认为，北京试图缓解“内卷”的努力实际上是在允许地方政府减少对制造业的投资。

Jeremy Smith, a research analyst at Rhodium Group’s China practice, said he believes local governments might be taking Beijing’s cue. He noted that fixed-asset investment has declined in nearly all of China’s provinces and prefectural-level cities since May.

荣鼎集团中国业务研究分析师杰里米·史密斯表示，他认为地方政府可能正在顺应北京的态度。他指出，自5月以来，中国几乎所有省份和地级市的固定资产投资都出现了下降。

许多中国纺织企业正在投资海外，例如越南和埃及等国。

The downturn in investment numbers, he said, more accurately reflects what Rhodium had suspected following the collapse of the property sector.

他说，这一投资数据的下滑更真实地反映了荣鼎在房地产行业崩盘之后所作出的判断。

Rhodium has reported that China’s investment activity likely fell in 2023 and 2024, based on other economic signals, such as credit growth. Due mainly to slower investment, Rhodium estimated that China’s economic growth was between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent last year, well short of the government’s official figure of 5 percent.

荣鼎报告称，基于信贷增长等其他经济信号，中国的投资活动很可能在2023年和2024年均出现下降。主要由于投资放缓，荣鼎估计中国去年的经济增速在2.4%至2.8%之间，远低于政府公布的5%。

“Declining investment is more the norm than the exception,” Mr. Smith said.

“投资下降才是常态，而不是例外，”史密斯说。

On the one hand, he said, Beijing seeks to project an image of economic resilience. At the same time, it aims to demonstrate that it is curbing the harmful competition plaguing many of its industries.

他表示，北京一方面希望展现经济韧性的形象，另一方面也试图表明自己正在遏制困扰众多行业的有害竞争。

A slump does not bode well for China’s economic growth, as investment accounts for a significant share of gross domestic product. Yet the broader measure of investment China uses to calculate G.D.P. rose in the third quarter despite the sharp decline in fixed-asset investment, leaving economists scrambling for how to explain the discrepancy.

投资下滑对中国经济增长而言并非好兆头，因为投资在国内生产总值中占据相当大的比重。然而，用于计算GDP的更广义投资指标却在第三季度有所增长，与固定资产投资的急剧下降形成反差，这让经济学家一时难以解释其中的矛盾。

中国张家口的一座高铁站。多年来，中国一直通过投资公共基础设施来增加投资总量。

In a November report, Goldman Sachs said it does not expect fixed-asset investment to weigh on economic growth because the decline is “overstated.” The investment bank said that most of the downturn is “a statistical correction of previously overreported data” rather than a genuine slowdown.

高盛在11月的一份报告中表示，预计固定资产投资不会拖累经济增长，因为相关下降“被夸大了”。高盛认为，大部分下滑其实是“对先前高估数据的统计修正”，而非真实的经济放缓。

Last month, Fu Linghui, the spokesman and chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, attributed the decline to a “complex and severe external environment” and “fierce domestic competition” that has hurt investment returns and dragged down corporate profitability.

国家统计局新闻发言人、首席经济学家付凌晖上个月则将投资下降归因于“复杂严峻的外部环境”和“激烈的国内竞争”，认为这削弱了投资回报，拖累了企业盈利能力。

He noted, however, that investment in high-tech industries such as green energy and aerospace is growing rapidly, a sign that overall investment might be slowing but is also “optimizing.”

但他指出，新能源、航空航天等高技术产业的投资仍在快速增长，显示整体投资增速虽然放缓，但结构正在“优化”。

Economic Daily, a Chinese state-owned newspaper, said in November that the country has entered into a new, high-quality phase of development, echoing official talking points. It accused foreign media of seizing on the investment stall to sensationalize a “crisis theory” about the Chinese economy.

中国官方媒体《经济日报》11月称，中国已进入高质量发展的新阶段，呼应了官方的政策表述，并指责外国媒体借投资停滞之机渲染所谓中国经济“危机论”。