President Trump made a lot of promises on the campaign trail last year. Investors and business leaders enthusiastically cheered some, like lower taxes and relaxed regulation, and expressed wariness about others, like tariffs and reduced immigration.

特朗普总统在去年的竞选活动中做出了很多承诺。投资者和商界领袖对减税和放松监管等措施表示热烈欢迎，同时对关税和减少移民等其他措施表示谨慎。

But when Mr. Trump won the election, there was little sign of that ambivalence: Stock prices soared, as did measures of business optimism.

但当特朗普赢得大选时，几乎看不到这种矛盾的迹象：股价飙升，衡量商业乐观程度的指标也在飙升。

Investors at the time offered a simple explanation: They believed Mr. Trump, backed by a Republican-controlled Congress, would follow through on the parts of his agenda that they liked and scale back the more disruptive policies like tariffs if financial markets started to get spooked.

当时的投资者给出了一个简单的解释：他们相信，在共和党控制的国会的支持下，特朗普会落实其议程中他们喜欢的部分，如果金融市场开始受到惊吓，它就会缩减关税等更具破坏性的政策。

It is increasingly clear they were wrong.

越来越明显的是，他们错了。

In his first weeks in office, Mr. Trump has made tariffs the central focus of his economic policy, promising, and at times imposing, steep penalties on allies as well as adversaries. He has threatened to curb subsidies that businesses had come to rely on. And he has empowered Elon Musk’s efforts to slash the federal bureaucracy, potentially putting tens of thousands of federal workers out of jobs and cutting off billions of dollars in government grants and contracts.

在上任前几周，特朗普将关税作为其经济政策的中心焦点，承诺对盟友和对手实施严厉的惩罚，有时还会实施。他威胁要限制企业已经开始依赖的补贴。他还授权埃隆·马斯克削减联邦官僚机构，这可能会导致数万名联邦工作人员失业，并削减数十亿美元的政府拨款和合同。

Most surprising, at least to the optimists on Wall Street: Mr. Trump has so far been undeterred by signs of cracks in the economy or by plunging stock prices.

最令人惊讶的是——至少对华尔街的乐观主义者来说是这样：迄今为止，特朗普没有被经济出现裂缝的迹象或股价暴跌吓倒。

“The idea that the administration is going to be held back by a self-imposed market constraint should be discounted,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM.

会计师事务所RSM的首席经济学家乔·布鲁塞拉斯表示：“对于政府会被自我施加的市场约束所限制的想法，不可尽信。”

Sure enough, on Tuesday, as financial markets seemed to be settling down after days of steep losses, Mr. Trump hit them with another shock, escalating his trade war with Canada. Major stock indexes immediately fell sharply on the news, with the S&P 500 ending the day down almost 1 percent. Mr. Trump ultimately reversed his decision after Canada said it would remove an electricity surcharge that had prompted the president’s threats.

果然，周二，在金融市场在经历了几天的大幅下跌后似乎正在企稳之际，特朗普又给了他们一个冲击，他升级了与加拿大的贸易战。消息传出后，主要股指立即大幅下跌，标准普尔500指数收盘下跌近1%。在加拿大表示将取消引发总统威胁的电费附加费后，特朗普最终改变了决定。

Far from being deterred by warnings that his policies are creating economic damage, Mr. Trump in recent days has embraced it, telling a Fox News interviewer on Sunday that the economic turmoil reflected a necessary “period of transition” and refusing to rule out a recession.

特朗普非但没有被有关他的政策正在造成经济损害的警告吓住，近几天还显得引以为荣。他在周日接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，经济动荡反映了一个必要的“过渡期”，他还拒绝排除经济衰退的可能性。

Asked about whipsawing financial markets on Tuesday, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country.”

周二，当被问及起伏不定的金融市场时，特朗普告诉记者：“市场有涨有跌，但是，你知道吗，我们必须重建我们的国家。”

Other members of his administration have echoed that message, describing tariff-induced price increases and cuts in government spending as a harsh but necessary medicine to restore the economy to health.

特朗普政府的其他成员也赞同这一观点，称关税引发的价格上涨和政府支出削减是恢复经济健康的一剂凶猛但必要的药。

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, told CNBC last week that the economy needed a “detox period” after becoming “addicted to this government spending.”

财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周告诉CNBC，在“对政府支出上瘾”之后，美国经济需要一个“戒瘾期”。

Most economists, however, dismiss the idea that the economy was in need of such shock therapy, or that Mr. Trump’s policies would be helpful if it did.

然而，大多数经济学家不认为美国经济需要这种休克疗法，也不认为就算需要这种疗法，特朗普的政策会有所帮助。

“It’s an effort to give the pain and the uncertainty that we’re going through at the moment some broader meaning and encourage us that we’re going to get to a better place,” said Nathan Sheets, a former Treasury official who is now global chief economist at Citigroup, of the administration’s new message. “But the bigger question is, are we really going to get to a better place?”

“这是在试图赋予我们目前正在经历的痛苦和不确定性更广泛的含义，并鼓励我们相信我们将走向一个更好的地方，”前财政部官员、现花旗集团全球首席经济学家内森·希茨在谈到政府的新信息时说。“但更大的问题是，我们真的会有一个更好的处境吗？”

The answer, according to Mr. Sheets and others, is “no.” Tariffs are likely to drive up prices and slow down growth. Tighter immigration policy could do the same. Government layoffs could drive up unemployment, while cuts to federal investments in research and development could leave the U.S. economy less productive in the long term.

在谢茨和其他人看来，答案是“不会”。关税可能会推高价格，减缓增长。收紧移民政策也能起到同样的作用。政府裁员可能会推高失业率，而削减联邦研发投资可能会导致美国经济长期生产力下降。

“It seems we are going to create pain, see what doesn’t heal, and then treat the injury,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.

乔治·华盛顿大学经济学家塔拉·辛克莱说：“看来，我们是要制造痛苦，看看有什么是不能愈合的，然后再治疗伤口。”

A ‘shock factor’ for businesses

对企业的“冲击因素”

Economists disagree about how much damage the new administration’s policies have done. The economy entered the year with significant momentum, and most forecasters believe there is enough of a cushion to avoid a recession, if Mr. Trump doesn’t further escalate his trade wars.

经济学家对新政府的政策造成了多大的破坏意见不一。今年经济增长势头强劲，大多数预测者认为，如果特朗普不进一步升级贸易战，就有足够的缓冲来避免经济衰退。

But the uncertainty of the past six weeks has been enough to cloud what had until recently looked like a sunny economic outlook. In surveys, consumers say they have become less optimistic about their finances and more worried about higher prices. Businesses, too, have become less confident and are delaying investment decisions.

但是，过去六周的不确定性已经足以给直到最近看起来还很光明的经济前景蒙上阴影。在调查中，消费者表示，他们对自己的财务状况不那么乐观，更担心物价上涨。企业也失去了信心，推迟了投资决定。

“There is a shock factor in the business community that we are seeing right now,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at the investment banking firm Jefferies. Businesses are slowing hiring and putting off buying products and equipment, Mr. Simons said. “It certainly seems like right now, you’d want to take a breath and let some of the dust settle before you make that decision.”

“我们现在看到的是，企业界需要考虑一个冲击因素，”投资银行杰富瑞的首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯说。西蒙斯说，企业正在放慢招聘速度，推迟购买产品和设备。“现在看来，你肯定想先喘口气，等尘埃落定后再做决定。”

Cautioning short-term pain

关于短痛的警告

The idea that Americans must endure short-term pain for long-term gain is not entirely new for Mr. Trump. In his first term, he praised farmers who were the collateral damage in his trade war with China, describing them as “patriots” making a sacrifice for the greater good.

美国人必须忍受短痛才能获得长期利益，这种想法对特朗普来说并不新鲜。在第一个任期内，他赞扬了在与中国的贸易战中受到附带损害的农民，称他们是为更大利益做出牺牲的“爱国者”。

But Mr. Trump, in his first term, also tried to offset that damage with billions of dollars in aid for farmers.

但特朗普在第一个任期内也试图通过向农民提供数十亿美元的援助来抵消这种损失。

如果消费者开始预期通胀加快，美联储的决策者就很难通过降低利率来应对经济放缓。

This time, the costs associated with Mr. Trump’s policies are potentially much broader, and they are coming in a much different economic context, when Americans have been scarred by years of high prices and elevated borrowing costs.

这一次，与特朗普的政策相关的成本可能要大得多，而且是在一个非常不同的经济背景下出现的，美国人多年来一直受到高物价和借贷成本上升的伤害。

Consumer surveys show that Americans have begun to anticipate higher prices as a result of tariffs. That could pose a political problem for Mr. Trump, and also an economic one: If consumers come to expect faster inflation, it could make it more difficult for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to counteract a slowdown in the economy through lower interest rates.

消费者调查显示，美国人已经开始预期关税会导致物价上涨。这可能会给特朗普带来一个政治问题，同时也是一个经济问题：如果消费者预期通胀会加快，美联储的政策制定者可能更难通过降低利率来抵消经济放缓的影响。

Some Fed officials are expressing concern that the combination of slowing growth and stubborn price pressures could put the central bank in a bind.

一些美联储官员担心，经济增长放缓和顽固的价格压力可能会让美联储陷入困境。

“That’s a stagflationary impulse,” Austan D. Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview last week. “There isn’t a generic answer to what you’re supposed to do.”

“这是一种滞胀冲动，”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周在接受采访时说。“至于对此应该做什么，没有一个一般性的答案。”

Mr. Bessent and other members of the Trump administration have argued that the economy they inherited was not as strong as it appeared. In a speech in Washington last month, he argued that growth was being effectively propped up by government spending, and that the economy needed to be weaned off that support.

贝森特和特朗普政府的其他成员认为，他们接手的经济并不像看上去那么强劲。上个月在华盛顿的一次演讲中，他认为增长实际上是由政府支出支撑的，经济需要摆脱这种支持。

“The previous administration’s overreliance on excessive government spending and overbearing regulation left us with an economy that may have exhibited some reasonable metrics but ultimately was brittle underneath, and heading for an unstable equilibrium” he said, according to Reuters.

据路透社报道，他表示：“上届政府过度依赖政府支出和专横的监管，给我们留下的经济可能表现出一些合理的指标，但归根结底是脆弱的，正在走向不稳定的平衡。”

But Jared Bernstein, who served as chairman of former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Mr. Bessent and other members of the Trump administration were simply looking for someone to blame now that economic data has begun to worsen.

但曾担任前总统拜登经济顾问委员会主席的贾里德·伯恩斯坦说，贝森特和特朗普政府的其他成员只是因为现在经济数据开始恶化了，要找替罪羊。

“They inherited an economy that was and remains the strongest among all the advanced economies, and they squandered their inheritance in a mere six weeks with policy chaos that’s tanking business and consumer confidence along with markets,” Mr. Bernstein said.

“他们继承了一个过去是、现在仍然是所有发达经济体中最强大的经济体，但他们在短短六周内就把继承的遗产挥霍一空，政策混乱导致企业、消费者信心和市场都受到重创，”伯恩斯坦说。

Government statistics support the notion that the economy was solid when Mr. Trump took office, even excluding the role of government. Government spending played a key role in propping up the economy during the Covid pandemic, both at the end of Mr. Trump’s first term and early in the Biden administration. But it fell later in Mr. Biden’s term, while private-sector hiring, investment and spending remained healthy.

政府统计数据支持特朗普上任时经济稳健的观点，即使不考虑政府的作用也是如此。在新冠疫情期间，政府支出在支撑经济方面发挥了关键作用，无论是在特朗普第一任期结束时还是在拜登政府初期。但在拜登任期后期，政府支出有所下降，而私营部门的招聘、投资和支出仍保持健康。