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报道称歼-10击落印度战机,印巴冲突助推中国军力信心

王月眉

2025年5月21日

在伊斯兰堡去年的阅兵排练期间,巴基斯坦空军飞行了中国制造的歼-10C战斗机。 Aamir Qureshi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

When Pakistan said it had shot down multiple Indian fighter jets earlier this month, ripples from that claim stretched all the way to the South China Sea, to Taiwan.

巴基斯坦本月初宣称击落了多架印度战斗机,这一说法的涟漪效应一直延伸到南海,波及台湾。

The Pakistani forces were flying Chinese-made J-10C fighters during the four-day conflict with India, and officials said Chinese missiles had brought down Indian planes.

在与印度发生的四天冲突中,巴基斯坦空军驾驶中国制造的歼-10C战斗机,而且巴方官员称,巴基斯坦用中国的导弹击落了印度战机。

The J-10 jets, which Chinese media have dubbed the “fighter of national pride,” have often been used in Chinese military exercises to menace Taiwan, the self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its own. But they had not been battle-tested, leaving open the question of how well they would perform in actual combat.

被中国媒体称为“大国重器”的歼-10战斗机经常出现在中国威胁台湾的军事演习中(中国政府称自己对这个民主自治的地区拥有主权)。但该战机此前没有经受过实战检验,它在实战中表现如何曾是个无法回答的问题。

In China, commentators declared that question now answered.

中国的军事评论员宣称,这个问题现在有了答案。

“Taiwanese experts say the Taiwanese military has no chance against the J-10C,” The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid, crowed on Monday.

“台湾专家称台军在歼-10C面前难以抗衡,”民族主义小报《环球时报》周一扬扬自得地写道。

The Chinese government has not directly confirmed the Pakistani claims, and India has not publicly confirmed losing any aircraft. But on Saturday, China’s state broadcaster declared on social media that J-10C jets had recently “achieved combat results for the first time,” with the post including a hashtag related to the India-Pakistan conflict.

中国政府尚未直接证实巴基斯坦的说法,印度也没有公开承认损失了任何战机。但中国国家电视台上周六在社交媒体上发帖称,“近期,我国外销型战机歼-10CE首次取得实战战果。”帖子还给了一个与印巴冲突有关的标签。

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese military, wrote in an op-ed article that the jets’ success would boost Chinese confidence in future territorial disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

从中国军队退役的周波大校在一篇专栏文章中写道,歼-10C战机的成功将增强中国在未来的台海、以及南海领土争端中作战的信心。

“The real effect is actually for the world, including Taiwanese authorities, to see how China’s defense industry has developed by leaps and bounds,” Mr. Zhou said in an interview. “This is for them to think about.”

“真正的效果实际上是让包括台湾当局在内的世界看到中国国防工业的突飞猛进,”周波在一次采访中说。“这是要让他们考虑的东西。”

20china pakistan weapons 02 zvtg master1050中国领导人习近平今年2月在北京与巴基斯坦总统阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里举行了会晤。

Further stoking Chinese pride were reports that some of the Indian jets that Pakistan said it had downed were manufactured by France. Some analysts have cast the conflict as a proxy showdown between Western and Chinese arms capabilities, since India has been stepping up its purchases from the West, while Pakistan has drastically increased its military purchases from China.

进一步激发中国人自豪感的是,有报道称,巴基斯坦声称击落的一些印度战机是法国制造的。有些分析人士将印巴冲突看作是西方与中国军力的代理决战,因为印度一直在增加从西方的军火采购,而巴基斯坦则极大地增加了从中国的军火采购。

In addition to jets, Pakistan also used Chinese-made air-defense systems and long-range air-to-air PL-15 missiles in the clash with India, according to security officials and Syed Muhammad Ali, a senior Pakistani defense analyst. Pakistan claimed that the PL-15 missiles hit their targets, though India has said that they did not.

除战机外,巴基斯坦在与印度的冲突中还使用了中国制造的防空系统和远程空对空霹雳-15导弹,据巴基斯坦安全官员、以及高级国防分析师赛义德·穆罕默德·阿里的说法。巴基斯坦称霹雳-15导弹击中了目标,但印度则说导弹没有击中目标。

The Chinese military’s lack of real-world combat experience — it has not fought a war in more than 40 years — is a longstanding source of concern for some in Beijing. But China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made modernizing the military a priority. China has increased its defense spending even as economic growth has slowed, and it is now the fourth-largest arms exporter globally.

中国军队缺乏实战经验,40多年来没打过仗,长期以来,这是中国政府的一项担忧。但中国领导人习近平已将军队现代化作为优先事项。即使在经济增长放缓的情况下,中国的国防开支仍在增加,中国现在已是全球第四大武器出口国。

Chinese and Taiwanese analysts alike said the recent conflict suggested that Chinese weapons were now on par with Western ones.

中国和台湾的分析人士都表示,最近这场冲突表明,中国的武器现在已和西方的不相上下。

“This is the most convincing appearance of the Chinese weapon system on the world stage ” Hu Xijin, former editor in chief of The Global Times, wrote in a blog post.

“这是中国武器系统在世界舞台最有说服力的亮相,”《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在一篇博客文章中写道

Mr. Hu added that the United States, having seen proof of China’s prowess, would be less likely to intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

胡锡进还表示,美国看到中国实力的证明后,在台海冲突中帮助台湾的可能性会减少。

Some in Taiwan have expressed similar concerns. Li Cheng-chieh, a retired major general in the Taiwanese military, said in an interview that the Pakistani air force’s experience suggested that Taiwanese planes would have “little chance of survival” against Chinese ones.

台湾也有一些人士表示了类似的担忧。从台湾军队退役的栗正杰少将在接受采访时说,巴基斯坦空军的表现说明,台军战机在中国战机面前几乎“是死路一条”。

“Whether our fighter jets would even have the opportunity to take off is a question mark,” he said.

“我们的战斗机是否甚至有机会起飞,都还是个问号,”他说。

20china pakistan weapons 03 zvtg master1050中国军用飞机在去年的中国珠海展览会上。中国战斗机在最近的印度和巴基斯坦的冲突中接受了实战检验。

Notably, amid the online nationalism, the Chinese government itself has been more reserved, focusing more on touting Chinese military advances in general. State media did not confirm the use of the Chinese jets in the conflict until more than a week after Pakistan said it had successfully deployed them.

值得注意的是,在网络民族主义情绪高涨的情况下,中国政府本身的态度一直更为谨慎,更多聚焦于宣传中国军力的整体进步。巴基斯坦宣布中国战机在冲突中取得成功一周多后,中国官媒才证实中国战机参与了冲突。

Beijing’s restraint may stem partly from wanting to avoid imperiling a recent diplomatic thaw with India. The two giants have in recent months agreed to resume direct flights and cooperate on trade issues, after their relations fell apart with a deadly clash over a disputed land border in 2020.

中国政府克制的部分原因也许是不想危及近期与印度在外交上的缓和。2020年,中印两国因陆地边界争议发生致命冲突后关系破裂,最近几个月才同意恢复直航和在贸易问题上合作。

This month’s conflict may also have raised questions about other Chinese equipment even as it seemed to show off the strength of its fighter jets. The Indian government said in a statement last week that its air force had “bypassed and jammed Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defense systems” in “just 23 minutes, demonstrating India’s technological edge.”

本月的印巴冲突在看似展示中国战机实力的同时,可能也引发了人们对其他中国装备的质疑。印度政府上周在一份声明中说,印度空军“仅用了23分钟就绕过并干扰了巴基斯坦由中国提供的防空系统,展示了印度在技术上的优势”。

On Monday, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry declined to address Indian claims that China had also provided Pakistan with active air-defense and satellite support during the clash.

印度称中国在冲突期间还向巴基斯坦提供了主动防空和卫星支持,中国外交部发言人周一拒绝对这个说法发表评论。

“Both India and Pakistan are important neighbors of China,” the spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said.

“印度和巴基斯坦都是中国的重要邻国,”发言人毛宁说。

Ou Si-fu, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that Taiwan should not overreact to the recent incident. He noted that it was not yet verified that Chinese-made PL-15 missiles had actually shot down the planes.

台湾国防安全研究院的研究员欧锡富表示,台湾不应对最近的事件反应过度。他指出,目前尚未证实大陆制造的霹雳-15导弹是否真的击落了战机。

Still, he acknowledged that the recent developments should be closely studied.

尽管如此,他承认近期的事态发展值得认真研究。

“It’s like an alarm clock, reminding everyone not to be careless,” he said. “Taiwan has no capital to be careless.”

“它像是一个警钟,提醒大家不要漫不经心,”他说。“台湾没有漫不经心的资本。”

Siyi Zhao自北京、Amy Chang Chien自台北、Salman Masood自伊斯兰堡对本文有研究贡献。 

王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者,常驻北京,撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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