2024年12月17日
The Biden administration is preparing a trade investigation into China’s production of older-model semiconductors, in response to fears that the United States’ growing dependence on these products could pose a national security threat, according to people familiar with the matter and government and industry documents reviewed by The New York Times.
据熟悉内情的人士以及《纽约时报》查阅的政府及行业文件,拜登政府正准备对中国生产的旧型号半导体进行贸易调查,原因是担心美国对这些产品日益增长的依赖性可能构成国家安全威胁。
The investigation could ultimately result in tariffs, import bans or other actions on certain Chinese chips and the products that contain them. But the decision about what course to take would fall to the incoming Trump administration. The Biden administration may initiate its investigation in the coming weeks, but it would most likely take at least six months to conclude.
调查最终可能导致对某些中国芯片和含有这些芯片的产品征收关税、实施进口禁令或采取其他行动。但采取何种措施将由即将上任的特朗普政府决定。拜登政府可能会在未来几周内启动调查,但很可能至少需要六个月才能做出结论。
The U.S. government has already tried to clamp down on China’s access to the most advanced types of semiconductors due to national security concerns. But it has largely left untouched China’s production of older types of chips, which are still vital for powering a huge swath of products including smartphones, cars, dishwashers, refrigerators and weaponry, along with American telecommunications networks.
出于国家安全考虑,美国政府已经试图限制中国获得最先进的半导体产品。但它基本上没有触及中国生产的老式芯片,而这些芯片仍然是智能手机、汽车、洗碗机、冰箱、武器装备等众多产品以及美国电信网络的重要动力。
But with Chinese companies and the government now investing heavily in new factories, or fabs, to make those “legacy” or “foundational” chips, U.S. officials are concerned that Chinese production could put chip factories in the United States or allied countries out of business. That could increase U.S. supply chain dependence on China and potentially pose cybersecurity threats as those chips are integrated into American infrastructure or weaponry.
但是,随着中国公司和政府现在大力投资新建晶圆厂来生产这些“传统”或“基础”芯片,美国官员担心中国的生产可能会使美国或盟国的芯片工厂倒闭。这可能会增加美国供应链对中国的依赖,并在这些芯片嵌入到美国基础设施或武器装备中时构成潜在的网络安全威胁。
“China is subsidizing those chips in these new fabs, dumping them into the global market and tanking the price,” Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, Calif., on Dec. 7. “That isn’t fair. And there may be a case for tariffs on that.”
“中国正在补贴这些新晶圆厂的芯片,将它们倾销到全球市场并压低价格,”商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多12月7日在加利福尼亚州西米谷举行的里根国防论坛上说。“这是不公平的。也许有理由对此征收关税。”
The Biden administration has been weighing whether to proceed with a trade investigation under two different laws. One is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which focuses on threats to national security and falls to the Commerce Department. The other option is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applies to acts that are “unjustifiable” or “unreasonable” and burden U.S. commerce, and is carried out by the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
拜登政府一直在权衡是否根据两项不同的法律进行贸易调查。一项是《贸易扩张法》第232条,主要针对威胁国家安全的行为,由商务部负责。另一项选择是《1974年贸易法》第301条,适用于“无正当理由”或“不合理”,对美国的贸易造成负担的行为,由美国贸易代表办公室负责执行。
The administration appears to have embraced the latter action, according to several people familiar with the plans. In a letter to its members last week, one Washington-based trade association said that the Biden administration had decided in a meeting that week to pursue the Section 301 investigation, and that the trade representative’s office could begin its preparations for initiating the investigation the next week.
据几位熟悉计划的人士透露,政府似乎已经接受了后一种行动。一家总部位于华盛顿的贸易协会在上周写给其成员的信中表示,拜登政府在当周的一次会议上决定进行第301条调查,贸易代表办公室下周就可以开始准备启动调查。
The office and the Commerce Department declined to comment. Biden officials have been considering the action for much of Mr. Biden’s term, but had been debating the best way to target these kinds of chips, which are part of opaque and complex global supply chains.
拜登办公室和商务部拒绝对此发表评论。在拜登任期内的大部分时间里,拜登的官员一直在考虑采取这一行动,但一直在争论针对这类芯片的最佳方式,它们是不透明和复杂的全球供应链的一部分。
Pressure has been growing on the U.S. government to help protect companies that make more types of semiconductors, particularly because the United States and its allies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars to try to build up domestic chip production.
要求美国政府帮助保护生产更多类型半导体的公司的压力与日俱增,特别是因为美国及其盟国正在投资数千亿美元,试图加强国内芯片生产。
There are concerns that Chinese companies could put new U.S. factories out of business. China is projected to add almost half of the world’s new factory capacity for legacy chips in the next three to five years, according to U.S. government statistics.
有人担心,中国公司可能会使美国的新工厂倒闭。根据美国政府的统计数据,预计未来三到五年全球的新增传统芯片产能中,中国将占将近一半。
That will most likely put downward pressure on global prices. U.S. companies in the solar, battery and electric vehicle industries have faced similar challenges, as Chinese factories flush with government subsidies pump out cheap but high-quality products. The Biden administration has responded by placing tariffs on those products.
这很可能会给全球芯片价格带来下行压力。太阳能、电池和电动汽车行业的美国公司也面临着类似的挑战,因为获得政府补贴的中国工厂在生产价廉物美的产品。拜登政府的对策是对这些产品征收关税。
A Nov. 21 government document reviewed by The Times showed that the Commerce Department had been briefing other agencies on China’s production of legacy chips and had proposed carrying out a national security investigation under Section 232.
时报查阅的一份今年11月21日的政府文件显示,商务部一直在向其他机构通报中国生产传统芯片的情况,并建议根据第232条开展国家安全调查。
The department proposed investigating the import “of all products containing P.R.C. chips” — a reference to the People’s Republic of China — not just the chips themselves, since most Chinese chips come into the United States contained in other products.
该部门建议调查“所有含有PRC芯片的产品”(PRC指中华人民共和国)的进口,而不仅仅是芯片本身,因为大多数中国芯片都是装在其他产品中进入美国的。
The department said the investigation could look into something called a “component tariff,” which would apply a tariff not to the whole imported product but just to the chip inside, depending on where it came from. Applying such a tariff would require gathering much more information about what kinds of chips U.S. imports contain. Such a tariff has never been attempted “at scale,” the Commerce Department said, but the investigation could give it the opportunity to assess its viability.
该部门表示,调查可能会研究某种“组件关税”,不是针对整个进口产品,而只是针对里面的芯片,具体取决于它来自哪里。要征收这种关税,就需要收集更多关于美国进口芯片种类的信息。商务部表示,这种关税从未“大规模”尝试过,但此次调查将为商务部评估其可行性提供机会。
Peter Harrell, a former White House economic official and a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the implementation challenge the government faced was that “the U.S. mostly imports semiconductors in other goods.”
前白宫经济官员、卡内基国际和平基金会非常驻研究员彼得·哈雷尔表示,政府在实施上面临的挑战是,“美国主要是进口在其他商品中的半导体。”
He added, “If the government wants to tariff the majority of Chinese semiconductors, they are going to have to figure out how to impose tariffs on a chip that is embedded in a phone, TV or other electronic device, whereas tariffs historically only applied to the finished products, not the components.”
他还表示:“如果政府想对大部分中国半导体产品征收关税,他们就必须想办法对嵌入手机、电视或其他电子设备中的芯片征收关税,而关税历来只适用于成品,而不适用于零部件。”
The Biden administration this year put tariffs on legacy chips that are directly imported into the United States from China. But analysts have said the impact of that move will be limited, since most Chinese-made chips are not directly imported into the United States.
拜登政府今年对从中国直接出口到美国的传统芯片征收关税。但分析人士认为,此举的影响有限,因为大多数中国制造的芯片并不直接出口到美国。
The Commerce Department said initiating an investigation now could come with a risk that the next administration would change direction or refuse to see the process through, according to the document. But it would allow the Biden administration to set the direction of the investigation, provide a forum for chipmakers and others to make the case for action, and hopefully result in action before U.S. companies became more dependent on Chinese chips, the document said.
文件显示,商务部表示,现在启动调查可能会面临下届政府改变方向或拒绝完成调查的风险。但该文件称,这将使拜登政府能够确定调查方向,为芯片制造商和其他企业提供平台来说明采取行动的理由,并有希望在美国公司变得更加依赖中国芯片之前采取行动。
The measure would send a strong market signal to companies that purchase chips “that cost advantages of Chinese suppliers may be short-lived,” and it could encourage allies, like the European Union, to take more aggressive steps to counter Chinese oversupply, the document said.
该文件称,这一措施将向购买芯片的公司发出一个强烈的市场信号,“即中国供应商的成本优势可能是短暂的,”并可能鼓励欧盟等盟国采取更积极的措施来应对中国的过度供应。
Citing the results of a recent survey, the Commerce Department said Chinese suppliers were offering prices 30 to 50 percent lower for chips than those in the United States, and sometimes lower than the cost of production. That was making companies hesitant to invest in new chip factories in the United States and Europe without government subsidies of more than 40 percent of their capital costs, and leading to some chip projects being stalled or canceled, the document said.
商务部援引最近的一项调查结果称,中国供应商提供的芯片价格比美国低30%至50%,有时甚至低于生产成本。该文件称,这就导致企业不愿在美国和欧洲投资新的芯片工厂,除非政府能提供超过资本成本40%的补贴,进而导致一些芯片项目停滞或取消。
The survey, which the Commerce Department released publicly this month, showed that Chinese chips were present in about two-thirds of electronic products made by U.S. companies, but still in very low quantities.
商务部本月公开发布的调查显示,美国公司生产的电子产品中约有三分之二使用了中国芯片,但整体数量仍然很少。