Bombs are exploding in Iran and the Middle East, but the fallout is rattling households and businesses in neighborhoods all over the globe.

炸弹在伊朗和中东地区爆炸，但其后果正冲击着全球各地的家庭和企业。

In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent this week. In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed.

在堪萨斯州，购房者看到30年期抵押贷款利率本周突破了6%。在印度西部，悼念亲人的家属发现，使用燃气焚化炉的火葬场暂时关闭。

In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted “sold out” signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. And across the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Mexico, farmers blanched at the surge in fertilizer costs.

在越南河内，加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。在肯尼亚，茶叶种植者和贸易商担心，他们出口到伊朗的货物会烂在码头上。而在美国、加拿大、欧洲、英国和墨西哥，化肥成本的飙升让农民们大惊失色。

The widening war in Iran has delivered a stunning punch to a worldwide economy that has already been walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and President Trump’s chaotic policymaking.

全球经济本已因国际贸易秩序崩溃、乌克兰战争以及特朗普总统混乱的政策制定而备受冲击，这场愈演愈烈的伊朗战争成为又一次沉重的打击。

“This really is the big one,” David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and U.S. Energy Department official, said of the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for oil. It is the emergency scenario everyone feared, he said.

“这可是个大问题了，”前美国外交官、美国能源部官员大卫·戈德温在谈到霍尔木兹海峡关闭时表示，那是全球最重要的石油输运咽喉。他说，这是每个人都担心的危急情况。

肯尼亚的茶叶种植者，那里的贸易商担心他们的出口产品无法到达目的地。

Cargo deliveries have been stranded, shipping charges have increased and insurance premiums have skyrocketed. Yes, the price of gas at the pump is affected. But so is the price of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity, cooking oil, semiconductors and more.

货物运输陷入停滞，航运费用增加，保险费也随之飙升。是的，加油站的汽油价格受到了影响，但食品、药品、飞机票、电力、食用油、半导体等等的价格同样如此。

A drawn-out war between the United States and Iran could have “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil market and the global economy, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil and gas company, warned this week.

全球最大石油和天然气公司沙特阿美的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔本周警告称，美国与伊朗之间长期的战争可能给世界石油市场和全球经济带来“灾难性后果”。

Yet even if the war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel struck Iran, wraps up relatively quickly, this latest upheaval is sending consumers, workers and employers on another unnerving and unpredictable ride.

然而，即便始于2月28日美以袭击伊朗的战争能相对较快地结束，这场最新的动荡也正将消费者、工人、雇主推入又一个令人不安且不可预测的境地。

It’s not just that small business owners and corporate executives must once again re-evaluate their supply chains, manage additional price increases and track shifting restrictions on who they can do business with. Or that the added uncertainty undermines confidence, making consumers reluctant to spend and businesses reluctant to invest.

这不仅仅是因为小企业主和企业高管必须再次重新评估其供应链，应对额外的价格上涨，并跟踪针对贸易对象不断变化的限制措施；也不仅仅是因为不确定性的增加削弱了信心，使消费者不愿支出，企业不愿投资。

It’s that this remapping of power dynamics in the Middle East could set off a string of consequences whose full force might not be known for months or years.

而是因为这种中东权力格局的重构可能会引发一系列连锁反应，其全面影响可能在数月或数年后才会显现。

Meg Jacobs, the author of “Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s,” pointed out that prices didn’t immediately go back down after the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974. They remained high for the rest of the decade.

《加油站恐慌：能源危机与20世纪70年代美国政治转型》(Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and The Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s)一书的作者梅格·雅各布斯指出，在1973年和1974年的石油禁运之后，物价并未立即回落，而是在那十年的余下时间里一直处于高位。

The supply situation is completely different today, with many more producers, Ms. Jacobs emphasized. But the crisis that the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries created with its embargo set off a chain of events that these oil producers never envisioned.

雅各布斯强调，今天的供应状况已完全不同，生产商要多得多。但阿拉伯石油输出国组织通过禁运创造的危机，引发了一系列这些石油生产商从未预料到的事件。

越南加油站老板贴出了“售罄”的告示。

The oil shock prompted other countries, most significantly the United States, to conserve energy and develop fuel-efficient cars and their own oil and natural gas industries. Ultimately, the Arab countries’ monopolistic stranglehold was broken. Oil prices ended up collapsing in 1986.

石油危机促使其他国家（最显著的是美国）节约能源，开发燃油效率高的汽车，并发展自己的石油和天然气工业。最终，阿拉伯国家的垄断性钳制被打破，石油价格最终在1986年崩盘。

Today’s actions in Iran and the surrounding region may similarly have consequences that are both unexpected and far-reaching.

今天在伊朗及周边地区的行动可能同样会产生出人意料的深远影响。

Ms. Jacobs, for example, pointed to the likelihood of an emboldened and strengthened Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. This week Mr. Trump eased some of the restrictions on Russian oil exports that had been imposed to pressure Mr. Putin over the war in Ukraine.

例如，雅各布斯指出，俄罗斯总统普京可能会因此变得更加大胆，力量也得到增强。本周，特朗普放宽了对俄罗斯石油出口的部分限制，这些限制此前是为了在乌克兰战争问题上向普京施压而实施的。

Higher oil prices will boost Russia’s beleaguered economy and war machine. And Mr. Putin has taken the opportunity to taunt European leaders who supported sanctions on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

走高的油价将提振俄罗斯陷入困境的经济和战争机器。普京也借此机会嘲讽了那些在乌克兰战争爆发后支持对俄能源制裁的欧洲领导人。

The crisis is also a potent reminder of the persistent vulnerabilities around critical supply chains. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine caused national leaders all over the world to talk about the need to prioritize resilience and security.

这场危机还敲响了警钟，提醒人们关键供应链依然存在持续的脆弱性。新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰战争曾促使世界各地的国家领导人讨论优先考虑韧性和安全的必要性。

The U.S.- Israeli war in Iran, though, once again highlights how disruptions in the global trading system can still inflict severe economic pain.

然而，美以在伊朗进行的战争再次凸显了全球贸易体系的紊乱仍能造成严重的经济创伤。

西班牙和其他国家的农民正努力应对化肥成本的飙升。

Europeans only recently dug out of their deep dependency on Russian gas and oil. For them, the timing of this energy squeeze could hardly be worse. Producers, still reeling from the impact of the tariffs, must now contend with higher energy costs. That will be a blow to countries like Germany with large, energy-hungry chemical, pharmaceutical and auto industries.

欧洲人直到最近才摆脱对俄罗斯天然气和石油的深度依赖。对他们来说，这次能源紧缩正值一个不能更糟的时刻。仍在承受关税冲击的生产商现在必须应对更高的能源成本。这对德国等拥有大型、高能耗化工、制药和汽车行业的国家将是一个打击。

With gas storage at low levels, there’s also likely to be some “panic refilling” in Europe that could push against price drops over the next six months or so, Mr. Goldwyn, the former energy department official, said.

前能源部官员戈德温表示，由于天然气储量处于低水平，欧洲可能会出现某种“恐慌性补库存”，这可能会阻碍未来六个月左右的价格下跌。

Rising oil prices do have the potential to increase interest in alternative energy sources like solar, wind and nuclear power, Mr. Goldwyn added.

戈德温还说，油价上涨确实有可能增加人们对太阳能、风能和核能等替代能源的兴趣。

Political support, though, is critical to developing any of these resources. And at least in the United States, Mr. Trump’s hostility to renewable energy remains fierce.

然而，政治支持对于开发任何此类资源都至关重要。至少在美国，特朗普对可再生能源的敌意依然强烈。

Asian economies are even more exposed. They, too, are dependent on energy imports. In addition, poor and middle-income countries are subject to the vagaries of currency exchange rates. And when the dollar or euro strengthens, all their imports suddenly become more expensive.

亚洲经济体面临的风险甚至更大。他们同样依赖能源进口。此外，贫困和中等收入国家还受制于汇率的反复无常。当美元或欧元走强时，他们所有的进口商品突然间都会变得更加昂贵。

Central bankers around the world face a difficult combination of circumstances. The United States has a stronger economy than many other countries. Nonetheless, its Federal Reserve confronts the same questions that are confounding other central bankers. Do they raise interest rates to head off a revival of inflation as energy prices spike, or lower rates as labor markets are weakening and growth is slowing?

全球各地央行面临着极其复杂的处境。美国的经济比许多其他国家都要强。尽管如此，美联储也面临着令其他央行行长困惑的同样问题：是该在能源价格飙升时加息以遏制通胀复苏，还是在劳动力市场疲软、增长放缓时降息？

Elevated rates will also keep borrowing costs high at a time when rich and poor countries are facing record levels of debt. That means more money that might have been used for health care, roads, housing or education instead will go to interest payments on debt.

持续的高利率也将使借贷成本维持在高位，而此时无论贫富国家都面临着创纪录的债务水平。这意味着本可以用于医疗、道路、住房或教育的更多资金将转而用于支付债务利息。

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, noted that tech companies, especially those specializing in artificial intelligence, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. A small handful of these companies have been the main drivers of growth in the U.S. economy — not to mention lofty stock valuations. “It could lead to the sharp correction in stock markets,” he said.

荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基指出，科技公司，尤其是那些专注于人工智能的公司，对利率变化高度敏感。少数几家此类公司一直是美国经济增长的主要驱动力，更不用说高昂的股票估值了。“这可能导致股市出现剧烈调整，”他说。

Mr. Trump’s rationale for the attacks and his objectives have shifted from one day to the next. But the decision to wage war on Iran undercuts the recently popular idea that the world was neatly breaking down into great power spheres of influence.

特朗普对攻击伊朗给出的理由及其目标每天都在变化。但发动对伊战争的决定削弱了近期流行的观点——即世界正在整齐地划分为大国势力范围。

Mr. Trump’s toppling of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, seizure of its oil and declaration of a “Donroe Doctrine” staked a claim for hegemony in North and South America.

特朗普推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗、夺取该国石油并宣告“唐罗主义”的到来，体现了他在南北美洲建立霸权的野心。

But the war in Iran shows that Mr. Trump still sees the United States as a superpower with global reach and global interests. And that he is willing to use military force to achieve both political and economic aims.

但伊朗战争表明，特朗普仍将美国视为拥有全球影响力且涉及全球利益的超级大国。而且他愿意利用武力手段来达成政治和经济双重目的。

“And that matters for the economy,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, as Washington moves to increasingly direct the flow of goods, services and money around the globe.

“这对经济至关重要，”凯投宏观集团(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希尔林表示，因为华盛顿正日益加强对全球商品、服务和资金流动的直接管控。