Despite being swatted about like a tetherball by ever-shifting trade wars, shortages of critical minerals and tense standoffs between the United States and China, the global economy has turned out to be more resilient than predicted.

尽管在变幻莫测的贸易战、关键矿产短缺以及中美之间紧张对峙之下，全球经济像梨球一样不断被打来打去，但表现出的韧性却超出了预期。

But don’t think that it’s time to take a breath. The whirligig shows no sign of stopping.

不过，现在还不是松口气的时候。经济漩涡并没有停下来的迹象。

“We are living through a singularly turbulent time,” said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at M.I.T. who won the Nobel in economic science last year.

“我们正经历一个极其动荡的时代，”麻省理工学院经济学家、去年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的达龙·阿西莫格鲁说。

Transformational changes continue to rattle the global economy, including the revolution in artificial intelligence, rapidly aging populations, climate change, and a worldwide turn against liberal democracy and a rules-based international order.

变革性的变化仍在持续撼动全球经济，包括人工智能革命、人口迅速老龄化、气候变化，以及全球范围内对自由民主和基于规则的国际秩序的普遍背离。

All of which are poised to remake jobs, politics and lives.

所有这些势必重塑就业、政治和生活。

The transition has been complicated by chaotic economic policymaking around the world this year.

今年的全球经济政策制定一片混乱，使得这一转型过程更加复杂。

In the United States, contradictory pronouncements are regularly issued from the Oval Office, as tariffs are enacted and retracted without warning. Last month, for instance, President Trump lifted tariffs on beef, tomatoes, bananas, coffee and other groceries, while last week, he threatened to raise them on rice from India and China.

在美国，白宫经常发出前后矛盾的政策声明，关税时而实施时而撤销，毫无预警。例如，上个月特朗普总统取消了对牛肉、西红柿、香蕉、咖啡等食品的关税，而上周他又威胁要对来自印度和中国的稻米加征关税。

Delayed price increases from tariffs are still working their way through the American economy like a mouse being digested by a snake.

就像蛇在消化老鼠一样，关税带来的延迟性价格上涨缓慢地在美国经济中传导。

麻省理工学院的达龙·阿西莫格鲁9月在联合国表示，欧洲科技产业“存在巨大的创新问题”。

At the same time, the future of a large chunk of the president’s tariff policies remains unclear until the Supreme Court rules on their constitutionality.

与此同时，总统的大规模关税政策未来走向仍不明朗，要等到最高法院就其合宪性作出裁决。

On the spending side, Mr. Trump has vowed to use a $250 billion pot of money generated by tariffs to pay out trillions of dollars to farmers, taxpayers and creditors. Public debt has shot up to record levels, reaching 125 percent of the country’s total output.

在支出方面，特朗普承诺用关税产生的2500亿美元资金向农民、纳税人和债权人支付数万亿美元。公共债务已飙升至创纪录水平，达到全国总产出的125%。

And the dizzying rise in the stock market, pumped by artificial intelligence companies, is fueling both fortunes and fears of a future crash.

人工智能公司推动的股市狂飙既造就了巨额财富，也引发了对未来崩盘的恐惧。

In Europe, most countries continue to be plagued by slower growth more than other advanced economies. For several years now, the European Union’s share of the global economy has been shrinking amid sharper competition from the United States and China.

在欧洲，大多数国家仍深陷增长乏力的困境，增速仍然低于其他发达经济体。多年来，欧盟在全球经济中的份额一直在萎缩，面临来自美国和中国的更激烈竞争。

Investment in artificial intelligence has also fallen far behind.

在人工智能领域的投资也远远落后。

“Europe has a huge innovation problem in the tech sector,” said Mr. Acemoglu, who won his Nobel for research on how institutions shape national prosperity.

“欧洲在科技领域的创新存在巨大问题，”因研究制度如何塑造国家繁荣获诺贝尔奖的阿西莫格鲁说。

With 27 members that have varying priorities and domestic pressures, the European Union has enormous difficulty carrying out critical policy recommendations like strengthening its single market for trade and capital, streamlining regulations and signing on to new trade pacts. This week, for example, the bloc delayed a vote on whether to approve a trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay that has been in the works for decades.

欧盟的27个成员国各有各的优先事项以及各不相同的国内压力，很难落实关键政策建议，例如加强单一市场在贸易和资本方面的整合、精简监管、签署新的贸易协定。比如在本周，欧盟就推迟了一项已酝酿数十年的与阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭贸易协定的表决。

Producers and manufacturers are held back by high energy prices and face growing competition from cheap Chinese exports that before Mr. Trump’s tariffs would have been directed to the United States.

高能源价格拖累了生产商和制造商，同时他们还面临来自中国廉价出口品日益激烈的竞争——这些商品原本在特朗普加征关税前会主要流向美国。

中国经济正因房地产市场崩盘遭受重创，为此中国大幅增加出口，今年贸易顺差已超过1万亿美元。

Security threats are pushing European governments to further strain budgets and dig deeper into debt as they devote substantially more resources to military spending.

安全威胁迫使欧洲各国政府进一步压缩预算，增加债务，因为他们不得不将更多资源投入军费开支。

The war in Ukraine grinds on, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has shown little sign of curbing his aggressive stance. Mr. Trump continues to enfeeble America’s commitment to the Atlantic alliance. A recent Danish intelligence analysis warned that the United States “no longer rules out the use of military force, even against allies.”

乌克兰战争仍在持续，俄罗斯总统普京几乎没有表现出任何收敛其强硬姿态的迹象。特朗普继续削弱美国对北大西洋联盟的承诺。丹麦情报机构最近的一份分析警告称，美国“不再排除对盟友使用武力”。

On the other side of the globe, China is still suffering from a collapse in its real estate market and a pullback in property, infrastructure and manufacturing investments.

在地球另一端，中国仍在遭受房地产市场崩盘以及房地产、基础设施和制造业投资大幅回落的痛苦。

China’s economic influence, though, is building. A record $1 trillion global trade surplus shows that Mr. Trump’s tariffs have done little to dampen the country’s trade domination or its reliance on exports to propel its economy. The International Monetary Fund recently revised the country’s annual growth forecast up to 5 percent.

然而，中国的经济影响力仍在增强。创纪录的1万亿美元全球贸易顺差表明，特朗普的关税几乎未能削弱中国的贸易主导地位或其依赖出口拉动经济的模式。国际货币基金组织最近上调了中国年度经济增长预期至5%。

“These imbalances are becoming unbearable,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said during a visit to China this month.

“这些失衡正变得令人难以忍受，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙本月访华期间表示。

Europe is not the only destination for the growing flood of Chinese exports. Southeast Asia is among the regions that have seen the sharpest increases.

欧洲并非中国出口激增的唯一目的地。东南亚是中国出口增长最迅猛的地区之一。

Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard, said the West’s “response to China’s manufacturing onslaught has been misguided and ineffective.” Chinese innovation has produced significant climate and energy-related advancements, which benefit the entire globe, he said, adding that “instead of blanket condemnation of Chinese mercantilism, the West needs a more differentiated strategy.”

哈佛大学经济学家丹尼·罗德里克认为，西方“对中国制造业攻势的应对是失当的，也是无效的”。他说，中国创新在气候和能源领域取得了重大进展，惠及全球，他还补充说，“西方不应一味谴责中国重商主义，而需要采取更有区分度的战略。”

He suggested focusing on the next generation of technology rather than trying to ape what China had already done.

他建议应聚焦下一代技术，而不是试图模仿中国已经做的事情。

巴黎的一家咖啡馆。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙本月访华时表示，全球贸易失衡“正变得令人难以忍受”。

In terms of artificial intelligence, China offers the United States significant competition. Mr. Acemoglu at M.I.T. said China had an advantage over the United States when it came to the number of well-trained engineers.

在人工智能领域，中国对美国构成了重大威胁。麻省理工学院的阿西莫格鲁表示，中国在高素质工程师的数量上拥有优势。

The unseating of the longstanding trading order, with the United States clearly on top and leading the way, is also creating new uncertainties and costs for the world economy.

长期以来以美国居首、引领全球的贸易秩序被打破，也为世界经济带来了新的不确定性和成本。

“We’re certainly in this limbo where there’s no hegemon, and countries are feeling more entitled to go their own way,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“我们现在确实处于一种没有霸权的状态，各国愈发觉得自己有权走自己的路，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员莫里斯·奥布斯特菲尔德说。

As ad hoc bilateral trade deals proliferate, businesses also have to worry more about the source of their materials and rising compliance costs with added demands for documentation. “It’s a much creakier trade system than the one we’ve been used to,” Mr. Obstfeld said.

随着临时双边贸易协定激增，企业还必须更加关注原材料来源以及因额外手续要求而增加的合规成本。“现在的贸易体系比我们习惯的那个要脆弱得多，运转起来也更费力，”奥布斯特菲尔德说。

Diane Coyle, an economist at the University of Cambridge, noted how the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath had revealed unforeseen vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. “I think we still don’t have a detailed insight into global and national production networks and where those bottlenecks are,” or where they will show up when a new crisis hits, she said.

剑桥大学经济学家黛安·科伊尔指出，新冠疫情及其后果暴露了全球供应链中意想不到的脆弱性。“我们仍然缺乏对全球和国家生产网络的详细洞察，不知道瓶颈在哪里，”她说。“也不知道下一次危机来临时，瓶颈会在哪里出现。”

Political currents could bring further instability to the world economy.

政治浪潮可能给世界经济带来进一步的不稳定。

“A lot of people in a lot of countries feel that their lives are going backward,” Ms. Coyle said, and distrust in government is increasing.

“很多国家、很多人感觉自己的生活正在倒退，”科伊尔说，对政府的信任也在下降。

Elections in several nations next year could shift policy. Midterm congressional elections in the United States, which may serve as a referendum on Mr. Trump’s economic agenda, are likely to prompt the administration to pump up government spending — and the deficit — to spur the economy.

明年多个国家的大选或将引发政策转向。美国中期国会选举很可能成为对特朗普经济议程的一次公投，政府可能因此加大支出、扩大赤字以刺激经济。

生产瓶颈的薄弱环节在新冠疫情期间已暴露无遗，但其深层机理至今仍未得到充分认知。

Sweden’s general elections will show how some of Europe’s far-right populist parties are faring and test the electoral system’s susceptibility to foreign disinformation campaigns. In Latin America’s largest economy, Brazil, where Mr. Trump has used tariffs to try to influence domestic politics and judicial rulings, the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face off against a far-right populist challenger.

瑞典大选将显示欧洲极右翼民粹主义政党表现如何，并考验选举系统对外国虚假信息运动的抵抗力。在拉美最大经济体巴西——特朗普曾利用关税试图影响其国内政治和司法裁决——现任总统卢拉将面对极右翼民粹主义挑战者。

A group of external advisers to the twin stewards of the global financial system, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, captured this sense of dislocation — and perhaps even dread — in a new analysis of the future of the world economy and the institutions’ roles in it.

在一份关于世界经济未来及机构角色的新分析报告中，全球金融体系双巨头——世界银行和国际货币基金组织——的一个外部顾问团队捕捉到了这种失序感——甚至可能是恐惧感。

They introduced the report with a quote based on the 1929 writings of the political philosopher Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters.”

他们在报告开头引用了政治哲学家安东尼奥·葛兰西在1929年写下的文字：“旧世界正在死去，新世界挣扎着诞生；现在是怪兽的时代。”