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比特币价格突破10万美元:20年来最成功的投资产品?

DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY

2024年12月6日

Haley Jiang

In May 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz, an early cryptocurrency enthusiast, used Bitcoin to buy two pizzas from Papa John’s. He spent 10,000 Bitcoins, or roughly $40 at the time, in one of the first purchases ever made with the digital currency.

2010年5月,早期的加密货币爱好者拉斯洛·汉耶奇用比特币从“棒!约翰”买了两个披萨。他花了一万个比特币,当时约合40美元,这是用数字货币做的首笔买卖之一。

It has turned out to be the most expensive dinner in history.

结果它成了历史上最昂贵的晚餐。

On Wednesday, the price of a single Bitcoin rose to more than $100,000, a remarkable milestone for an experimental financial asset that had once been mocked as a sideshow and a fad. The total cost of those pizzas today: $1 billion.

单个比特币的价格已在周三突破10万美元,对这个实验性金融产品来说是一个引人注目的里程碑,它曾被嘲笑为小打小闹和一时的时髦。那两个披萨用今天的价格计算值10亿美元。

Bitcoin now stands as arguably the most successful investment product of the last 20 years. The value of all the coins in circulation is $2 trillion, more than the combined worth of Mastercard, Walmart and JPMorgan Chase. The motley assortment of hackers and political radicals who embraced Bitcoin when it was created by an anonymous coder in 2008 have become millionaires many times over. And the invention has spawned an entire industry anchored by publicly traded companies like Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange, and promoted by celebrities, athletes and Elon Musk.

比特币现在可以说是过去20年里最成功的投资产品。流通的比特币总量目前已达2万亿美元,超过了万事达卡、沃尔玛和摩根大通的市值总额。一个不知姓名的程序员在2008年创建了比特币,那些当时就接受了它的形形色色的黑客和政治激进分子现在已是超级富翁了。这项发明还催生了一个完整行业,它由Coinbase加密货币交易所等上市公司支撑,其推销员包括名人、运动员,以及埃隆·马斯克。

Even the president-elect says he is a believer. During the campaign, Donald J. Trump marketed himself as a Bitcoin enthusiast, vowing to create a federal stockpile that could push its price even higher.

就连候任总统也表示极力推崇比特币。特朗普在总统大选期间把自己标榜为比特币爱好者,誓言要建立一个比特币联邦储备,这会进一步推高其价格。

Bitcoin began as “essentially an experimental hobbyist project,” said Finn Brunton, the author of a 2019 book about the history of cryptocurrency. “To see where it is now is to see a really impressive feat.”

比特币刚开始时“本质上是一个业余爱好者的实验项目”,芬恩·布鲁顿说,他曾在2019年出版了一本关于加密货币历史的。“它今天的样子让人看到一个真令人折服的成就。”

Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 signals its now-undeniable status in the global economic system. The virtual currency has become a staple of financial markets, embraced by Wall Street giants and amateur investors alike. Its surge also caps an astonishing turnaround after its price dropped below $17,000 in 2022, as the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange sent the industry into a tailspin.

比特币升值到10万美元标志着它在全球经济体系中不可否认的地位。这种虚拟货币已成为金融市场的主要产品,受到华尔街巨头和业余投资者的青睐。2022年,FTX加密货币交易所的崩盘曾导致该行业失控,使比特币的价格跌破1.7万美元,这次巨幅升值是比特币价格的惊人回转。

This year, Bitcoin has come roaring back. Federal regulators allowed Wall Street firms to offer a popular financial product tied to the coin, attracting billions of dollars in fresh investment. Then, Mr. Trump’s election victory sent its price even higher, as crypto enthusiasts branded him the first “Bitcoin president.”

今年,比特币价格出现强劲反弹。联邦监管机构允许华尔街的公司推出与比特币挂钩的热门金融产品,吸引了数十亿美元的新投资。特朗普后来的胜选进一步推高了比特币的价格,加密货币爱好者已给他贴上了首位“比特币总统”的标签。

In a matter of months, Bitcoin investors went from bemoaning tough regulation under the Biden administration to shopping for Lamborghinis and gloating on social media. Top crypto executives spent about $135 million to influence the U.S. election, and they are now enjoying the spoils.

比特币投资者几个月前还在抱怨拜登政府的严厉监管,如今在购买兰博基尼并在社交媒体上炫富。最有钱的加密货币高管们在影响美国大选上总共花了约1.35亿美元,现在,他们正在享受成功所带来的好处。

Last month, Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and a crypto critic who had led a crackdown on the industry, said he would step down on Jan. 20. A few hours before Bitcoin hit its milestone, Mr. Trump picked Paul Atkins, a former regulator and founder of a financial consulting firm, as the next S.E.C. leader. Mr. Atkins has advised a crypto industry group, and is viewed as an advocate for digital assets.

上个月,美国证券交易委员会主席加里·根斯勒说,他将于明年1月20日辞职,他是加密货币的批评者,曾领导打击该行业的行动。在比特币的价格升到里程碑水平的几小时前,特朗普提名保罗·阿特金斯为美国证券交易委员会的下任领导人,阿特金斯曾是一名监管者,也是一家金融咨询公司的创始人,他曾为一个加密货币行业组织做过咨询,被视为数字资产的倡导者。

“There’s an enormous amount of excitement in the industry right now,” said Jeremy Allaire, the chief executive of Circle, an influential U.S. crypto company. “A lot of positive energy.”

“这个行业现在充满了巨大的兴奋,”杰里米·阿莱尔说,他是美国一家颇具影响力的加密货币公司Circle的首席执行官。“有很多正能量。”

Still, Bitcoin remains prone to extreme volatility. Its price sometimes drops when the global economy struggles. Environmental groups have raised concerns that the energy required to run Bitcoin’s software contributes to climate change, and the technology has long been used by scammers and thieves.

尽管如此,比特币仍易受极度波动的影响。全球经济陷入困境时,比特币的价格有时会跌。环保组织对运行比特币软件所需的能源对气候变化的影响表示担忧,而且,这项技术长期以来一直为骗子和盗贼所用。

While some of that illicit activity has fallen off, cybercriminals used digital currencies to facilitate about $500 million in ransom payments over the first six months of the year, according to the crypto forensics firm Chainalysis.

尽管这种非法活动已在数量上有所减少,但据加密货币取证公司Chainalysis的数据,网络犯罪分子在今年前六个月用数字货币促成了约5亿美元的赎金支付。

Before it became a cultural and financial phenomenon, Bitcoin was just an idea sketched out in a nine-page white paper posted on an internet mailing list on Halloween in 2008. The author was a mysterious coder who used the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. At its most basic, Satoshi’s vision was a type of digital money that people could exchange without relying on banks to process the transfers. Every transaction would be recorded on a publicly visible ledger known as a blockchain.

在成为一种文化和金融现象之前,比特币只是个想法,一个在2008年万圣节发到一个互联网邮寄名单九页白皮书中勾勒出来的想法。白皮书的作者是一个化名中本聪(Satoshi Nakamoto)的神秘程序员。从最基本的意义上讲,中本聪的愿景是一种人们不需要依赖银行来处理转账就可交换的数字货币。每笔交易都将记录在一个公开可见的、被称为“区块链”的账本上。

Early enthusiasts envisioned Bitcoin as the foundation for a new kind of financial system that would be governed by code and exist outside the supervision of Wall Street firms and government regulators. They also viewed Bitcoin as a long-term store of value — it was programmed to have a fixed supply, so it would be resistant to inflation.

早期的爱好者们将比特币设想为一种新型金融系统的基础,这种金融系统将由代码管理,存在于华尔街的公司之外,不受政府监管机构的监管。他们还将比特币视为一种长期的保值手段——比特币的供应量在程序中被固定下来,因此它有抵制通货膨胀的能力。

The Wall Street establishment dismissed Bitcoin as a passing trend and a tool for criminals. Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, called Bitcoin “a fraud” and a “Ponzi scheme.” Mr. Trump once decried it as “a scam” devised to undermine the U.S. dollar.

当时,华尔街的主流机构对比特币不屑一顾,认为这只是一时潮流,是犯罪分子的工具。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙称比特币是“欺诈”和“庞氏骗局”。特朗普曾谴责比特币是“骗局”,是被设计出来破坏美元的。

00bitcoin 100k hf0 master10502022年5月,瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛前夕,在比特币披萨日上,为人们免费提供的披萨。

But believers thought Bitcoin might someday facilitate real-world transactions. On May 18, 2010, Mr. Hanyecz posted in a popular Bitcoin forum, offering to send 10,000 Bitcoins to anyone who ordered him pizza from Papa John’s. “Like maybe 2 large ones so I have some left over for the next day,” he wrote.

但支持者们认为比特币有朝一日可能会促进现实世界的交易。2010年5月18日,汉耶奇在一个受欢迎的比特币论坛上发帖,表示如果有人从“棒!约翰”给他订披萨,他就给那个人一万比特币。“可能订两个个大号披萨吧,这样我还能剩下一些留到明天吃,”他写道

A deal was struck, and the event became known as Bitcoin Pizza Day. Over the next decade, Bitcoin inspired thousands of other digital currencies with names like Ether, Solana and Dogecoin, some of which also became enormously valuable.

有人与他达成了协议,而这一事件也被称为比特币披萨日。在接下来的十年里,比特币激发了数以千计其他数字货币的诞生,其中包括以太币、索拉纳币和狗狗币,其中一些也变得价值连城。

In November 2021, Bitcoin’s price soared to nearly $70,000, setting a record. The crypto world was ascendant. Kim Kardashian encouraged her Instagram followers to buy the coins, and athletes like Tom Brady and Steph Curry promoted crypto companies in splashy television commercials.

2021年11月,比特币的价格飙升至近七万美元,创下纪录。当时,加密货币世界开始日益壮大。金·卡戴珊鼓励她的Instagram粉丝购买这些代币,汤姆·布雷迪和斯蒂芬·库里等运动员在引人注目的电视广告中宣传加密货币公司。

Then the bubble burst. In 2022, FTX and other prominent crypto firms filed for bankruptcy, causing the prices of Bitcoin and other digital assets to plummet by as much as 96 percent. Amateur investors who had poured money into crypto saw their savings vanish. In Washington, Mr. Gensler of the S.E.C. embarked on a wide-ranging clampdown.

然后泡沫破灭了。2022年,FTX等知名加密货币公司申请破产,导致比特币和其他数字资产的价格暴跌96%。那些将资金投入加密货币的业余投资者眼睁睁地看着他们的积蓄化为乌有。在华盛顿,美国证券交易委员会的根斯勒开始了一场广泛的打击行动。

But the industry’s fortunes changed again this year, after the S.E.C. lost a court battle to block a new financial product tied to Bitcoin. In January, major Wall Street firms, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Fidelity, started offering exchange-traded funds linked to Bitcoin, attracting a wave of investment. Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed to another record in March.

但今年,在一场阻止与比特币相关的新金融产品的诉讼中,美国证券交易委员会败诉,比特币行业的命运也再次发生改变。今年1月,包括贝莱德、富兰克林邓普顿和富达在内的大型华尔街公司开始提供与比特币挂钩的交易所交易基金,吸引了一波投资浪潮。3月份,比特币的价格飙升至另一个创纪录水平

Wealthy investors who had held onto their Bitcoin became even richer. Michael Saylor, the chief executive of the software firm MicroStrategy, had been widely mocked for borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars to buy Bitcoin for his company. Now his stash is worth more than $30 billion.

持有比特币的富有投资者变得更加富有。软件公司“微策略”的首席执行官迈克尔·塞勒曾因借款数亿美元为公司购买比特币而受到外界嘲笑。现在他的比特币储备价值超过300亿美元。

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump proclaimed himself a Bitcoin enthusiast, promising to fire Mr. Gensler and end the S.E.C.’s crackdown. A few weeks before the election, Mr. Trump and his sons started their own crypto business, World Liberty Financial, putting the family in a position to benefit personally from softer regulations.

在竞选期间,特朗普宣称自己是比特币爱好者,并承诺解雇根斯勒并结束美国证券交易委员会的打击行动。选举前几周,特朗普与儿子们创办了自己的加密货币公司World Liberty Financial,让特朗普家族能够从更宽松的监管中获益。

Suddenly, a financial asset designed to circumvent the U.S. government was surging in value because a U.S. presidential candidate had embraced it.

突然之间,一项原本旨在规避美国政府的金融资产市值飙升,而这都是因为美国总统候选人对它的接纳。

Bitcoin has risen in “exactly the opposite way that it was intended,” said Mr. Brunton, the crypto author. “By being something where its real value comes from its association with a politician and a state actor.”

此次比特币的市值上涨“违背了它原本的目的”,加密货币作者布鲁顿说。“因为其真实价值来自于与一名政治人物和国家行为者的联系。”

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