A year ago, President Trump won the White House promising to fix the economy. On Tuesday, Republican losses delivered a reminder of the high political price that the party in power pays when voters are still feeling squeezed.

一年前，特朗普总统以振兴经济的竞选承诺入主白宫。而在周二，共和党在选举中的失利提醒人们：当选民仍然感受到经济压力时，执政党要付出高昂的政治代价。

Mr. Trump himself was not on the ballot, and he never held rallies in either of the states where new governors were elected on Tuesday. But the president was still a central character in the campaigns, a mainstay of the Democrats’ advertising and their arguments on the stump.

特朗普本人不在选票上，也未在周二举行州长选举的两个州举办集会。但总统依然是选战的核心人物——既是民主党广告中的常客，也是他们在竞选演讲中反复抨击的对象。

Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia were built on promises to address the sky-high cost of living in those states while blaming Mr. Trump and his allies for all that ails those places. In New York City, the sudden rise of Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist with an ambitious agenda to lower the cost of living, put a punctuation mark on affordability as a political force in 2025.

民主党在新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的胜利建立在解决当地生活成本高企的承诺之上，同时也将这些困境归咎于特朗普及其盟友。在纽约市，候任市长、民主社会主义者佐兰·马姆达尼的迅速崛起——他提出雄心勃勃的计划以降低生活成本——更是凸显出民生关切已经成为2025年的政治核心议题。

The results on Tuesday came after a drumbeat of polls showing that Mr. Trump and the Republican Party have seen their longtime edge on management of the economy evaporate.

此次选举结果出炉前，多项民调持续显示特朗普与共和党长期以来的经济治理优势已荡然无存。

“Exactly one year ago we had that big beautiful victory, exactly one year,” Mr. Trump said on Wednesday at a breakfast with Republican senators at the White House. “And last night it was not expected to be a victory — it was very Democrat areas — but I don’t think it was good for Republicans.”

“就在一年前，我们取得了那场美丽而巨大的胜利，整整一年，”特朗普周三在白宫与共和党参议员共进早餐时说道，“而昨晚，我们本来就不被看好——那些地方非常偏向民主党——但我认为结果对共和党并不理想。”

Mr. Trump’s own meandering focus on the economy has given plenty of fodder to Democrats. He tore down the East Wing for a new ballroom, lavishly remodeled the Lincoln bathroom, paved over the Rose Garden for a patio like the one at Mar-a-Lago and threw a “Great Gatsby”-esque Halloween party with the theme “a little party never killed nobody” during a government shutdown and on the eve of cuts to food assistance.

特朗普本人对经济的漫不经心也为民主党人提供了大量攻击素材。在政府停摆期间及食物补助削减前夕，他斥资拆除白宫东翼建造新舞厅，奢华装潢林肯卫生间，将玫瑰园铺砌成马阿拉歌庄园风格的露台，还以“偶尔放纵一下没什么大不了”为主题举办了《了不起的盖茨比》式万圣节派对。

“Trump is indifferent to the pain American families are feeling,” said Representative Suzan DelBene of Washington, who is leading the campaign arm of House Democrats headed into the 2026 midterms.

来自华盛顿州的联邦众议员苏珊·德尔本表示：“美国家庭正在承受痛苦，而特朗普对此无动于衷。”她正领导众议院民主党人备战2026年中期选举的竞选工作。

Only 30 percent of voters believe Mr. Trump has lived up to their expectations for tackling inflation and the cost of living, according to a recent NBC News poll, his lowest mark for any issue asked. And a meager 27 percent of voters in a CNN poll in late October said Mr. Trump’s policies had improved the country’s economic conditions — less than half of those who thought he had made matters worse.

据美国全国广播公司最新民调显示，仅30%的选民认为特朗普在应对通胀和生活成本方面达到预期，这是他在所有议题中得分最低的一项。美国有线电视新闻网10月底民调更揭示，仅27%的选民认为特朗普的政策改善了国家经济状况——这一比例不到认为他让情况变得更糟选民人数的一半。

“Trump promised to lower costs on Day 1,” Ms. DelBene said. “It’s a big broken promise from the Republican Party.”

“特朗普曾承诺上任第一天就会降低生活成本，”德尔本说。“这是共和党最大的失信承诺之一。”

Abigail Spanberger, a Democratic former congresswoman, flipped the governorship of Virginia with a campaign highlighting the fallout for the state’s economy from Mr. Trump’s efforts to dismantle parts of the federal government. Mikie Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman, won with a platform that prominently included a Day 1 promise to declare a state of emergency on utility costs and freeze rates.

民主党前众议员阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格在弗吉尼亚州长竞选中，通过强调特朗普瓦解部分联邦政府机构对该州经济造成的冲击，成功实现政党轮替。四届众议员米基·谢里尔则以上任首日宣布公用事业成本进入紧急状态并冻结收费为核心政纲赢得选举。

Both won by double digits.

两人都以两位数的优势胜出。

阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格在弗吉尼亚州州长选举中为民主党赢得胜利，她的竞选重点之一是强调特朗普削减联邦政府员工规模如何损害了该州。新泽西州州长选举的民主党获胜者米基·谢里尔在竞选中也重点强调了生活成本和民生关切议题。

The New Jersey race was especially revealing because the Republican nominee, Jack Ciattarelli, had tried to tap into the same frustration that voters have about the economic status quo — and direct that rage at Democrats who control the state government. But ads that had attacked Ms. Sherrill as “more of the same but worse” ultimately fell flat.

新泽西州的选情尤其能说明问题——共和党候选人杰克·恰塔雷利试图利用选民对经济现状的同等不满，将矛头引向控制州政府的民主党人。但攻击谢里尔“换汤不换药，甚至更糟糕”的广告最终未能奏效。

Kiersten Pels, a Republican National Committee spokeswoman, said that “these off-year races in deep-blue states aren’t predictors of 2026.” She insisted that voters still trusted Mr. Trump and that Democrats had gone “far left.”

共和党全国委员会发言人柯尔斯滕·佩尔斯声称：“这些深蓝州的非大选年角逐并不能预示2026年的选情。”她坚称选民依然信任特朗普，并指责民主党已“走得太左了”。

Mr. Mamdani’s rise from obscurity to national stardom showed the mobilizing power of affordability for Democrats. He used a campaign centered on specific and sweeping promises to defeat a once-powerful former governor, Andrew M. Cuomo.

马姆达尼从默默无闻到全国明星的崛起展示出民生关切议题对民主党选民的动员力量。他通过以具体而全面的承诺为核心的竞选纲领，击败了曾权倾一时的前州长安德鲁·科莫。

佐兰·马姆达尼在竞选中高度聚焦生活成本议题，有效动员了纽约市选民前往投票。

And Mr. Mamdani contrasted his own economic focus with the president’s wandering eye on the topic, at times saying that Mr. Trump had won on three promises in 2024 — to punish his enemies, do mass deportations and ease the cost of living — but only followed through on the first two.

马姆达尼在竞选中将自己对经济问题的专注与总统在这一议题上的心猿意马形成对比，他不时地指出，特朗普在2024年凭借三项承诺赢得大选——惩罚敌人、大规模驱逐移民以及降低生活成本——但最终只兑现了前两项。

Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, warned his party not to dismiss Mr. Mamdani and his “laserlike focus on” affordability even as Republican strategists were eager to make the 34-year-old democratic socialist the next face of the Democratic Party.

共和党民调专家罗伯特·布利泽德警告同僚，尽管共和党策略师们急于把这位34岁的民主社会主义者塑造成民主党的新面孔，但不要轻视马姆达尼及其对民生议题“激光般的专注”。

“Don’t just chalk up a Mamdani win to a woke candidate winning a woke city,” Mr. Blizzard said. “This is the wake-up call for policymakers on both sides of the aisle about the importance of focusing your campaigns on cost and affordability.”

“不要把马姆达尼的胜利简单归结为一个觉醒派候选人赢得了一个觉醒城市，”布利泽德说，“这对两党政策制定者都是一个警钟——提醒他们必须把竞选重点放在生活成本与民生关切上。”

In Washington, congressional Democrats have opened a front in the affordability wars through a government shutdown that is now the longest in American history. Senate Democrats are so far refusing to vote to reopen the government unless Republicans and Mr. Trump agree to address health care costs that are rising as federal subsidies lapse.

在华盛顿，国会民主党人正通过创下美国史上最长纪录的政府停摆开辟出民生关切之战的新战线。参议院民主党人迄今拒绝投票让政府重新开门，除非共和党人与特朗普同意解决因联邦补贴到期而持续攀升的医疗费用。

But the political dynamics at play on Tuesday were simple and familiar.

但周二展现的政治态势其实简单而熟悉。

Voters are unhappy about the economy and are starting to blame Republicans instead of Democrats.

选民对经济感到不满，开始把责任从民主党转向共和党。

众议院少数党领袖、众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯上周在华盛顿。周二深夜他在CNN表示：“民生关切就是今天选票上的核心议题，而民主党在全美都取得了胜利。”

In some ways, Mr. Trump is in the unenviable position that Democrats were in a year ago, urging voters not to believe their own eyes — or wallets — when it comes to the economy.

在某种程度上，特朗普正陷入一年前民主党人的窘境——在经济议题上试图让选民不要相信自己的切身感受。

“We have no inflation,” Mr. Trump insisted on “60 Minutes” on Sunday. (There is inflation.)

“我们没有通货膨胀，”特朗普周日在《60分钟》节目中坚称。（实际上确实存在通胀。）

“Our groceries are down,” he said. (Grocery prices are up.)

“我们的食品杂货价格下降了，”他说。（实际上食品杂货价格上涨了。）

“No, we’re in great shape,” Mr. Trump pushed back at another point in the interview. “This country is in great shape. We’re ready to really rock.”

“不是的，我们的经济形势很好，”特朗普在采访的另一处反驳道。“这个国家状况很好，我们准备好大干一场了。”

Polls show voters feel otherwise.

但民调显示，选民并不这么认为。

“People aren’t dummy,” Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said in an interview. “They know prices aren’t going down.”

康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲在采访中直言：“民众不是傻瓜，他们清楚物价根本没有下降。”

This doesn’t mean voters suddenly trust Democrats — the party’s approval stood at 29 percent in the recent CNN survey. But it does mean that Republicans have lost the benefit of the doubt.

这并不意味着选民突然开始信任民主党——根据最近的CNN调查，该党的支持率为29%。但这确实意味着选民不再愿意姑且相信共和党是对的。

Just two years ago, in September 2023, voters gave Republicans a roughly 20-percentage-point edge on the economy in an NBC poll. Now, Democrats and Republicans are statistically tied.

就在两年前的2023年9月，NBC民调显示选民在经济议题上对共和党的信任度领先约20个百分点。如今，两党在该领域的支持率不相上下。

Mr. Trump in particular has been trusted by voters on economic matters ever since he entered the political scene, with a reputation built on a decade of hosting the popular television show “The Apprentice” and the image of a decisive businessman.

自从特朗普进入政坛以来，他在经济事务上尤其受到选民信任，这种声誉建立在他主持长达十年的热门电视节目《学徒》以及他“果断商人”的形象之上。

Democrats have been seeking to chip away at the gains that Mr. Trump made among working-class voters in 2024 ever since he was sworn in surrounded by some of the world’s richest men: Elon Musk of Tesla, Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta and Sundar Pichai of Google among them.

但自他在特斯拉的马斯克、亚马逊的贝佐斯、Meta的扎克伯格及谷歌的皮查伊等全球顶级富豪簇拥下宣誓就职起，民主党一直在削弱他在2024年从工人阶级选民那里获得的支持。

“Our focus on an economic agenda is — it’s certainly deliberate,” Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said in an interview.

民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁在采访中坦言：“我们聚焦经济议程，这无疑是经过深思熟虑的。”

Republicans are hardly ceding the affordability fight. In an election eve rally by phone, Mr. Trump had framed Mr. Ciattarelli as the “cost of living” candidate.

共和党并未退出民生关切之战。特朗普在选前的电话集会上，将恰塔雷利塑造为“生活成本”议题的代言人。

And in Washington, Mr. Trump certainly has an economic agenda.

在华盛顿，特朗普也确实推行着自己的经济议程。

He has pushed sweeping tariffs as a panacea for America’s economic troubles. While his sweeping fees on imports have not caused the market blowback that many economists had predicted, they do say that the tariffs are raising prices for American consumers. A Goldman Sachs report said consumers were bearing a majority of the costs last month.

他力主将全面关税作为解决美国经济困境的灵丹妙药。虽然这些高额进口税并未引发许多经济学家所预测的市场反弹，但他们表示，这些关税正在推高美国消费者的物价。高盛的一份报告指出，上月大部分关税成本实际由消费者承担。

Congressional Republicans also passed and Mr. Trump signed a sweeping domestic policy bill that slashed taxes and made cuts to Medicaid and other social programs.

国会的共和党人还通过并由特朗普签署了一项全面的国内政策法案，削减税收并对医疗补助计划和其他社会项目进行削减。

But after polling showed that the legislation was unpopular with voters, Republicans not-so-subtly rebranded it from the One Big Beautiful Bill to the Working Families Tax Cut Act.

但在民调显示该立法在选民中极不受欢迎后，共和党人悄然将“大而美法案”改名为“工薪家庭减税法案”。