The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies. On Monday, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel, before settling back down to around $90 after President Trump suggested the war could be over soon. Oil was about $70 a barrel before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Jet fuel rose more than 58 percent as of March 6 compared to the week before, according to the International Air Transport Association.

美以袭击伊朗引发的油价飙升正在全球经济中传导蔓延。周一，油价一度逼近每桶120美元，随后在特朗普总统表示战争可能很快结束后回落至90美元左右。2月28日冲突爆发前，油价约为每桶70美元。国际航空运输协会数据显示，截至3月6日，航空燃油价格较前一周上涨超过58%。

Market volatility only adds to the confusion around flight prices. But the last time oil rose more than 40 percent — in 2022, on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — airfares jumped 28 percent.

市场波动只会让机票价格更加混乱。而上一次油价涨幅超40%是在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，当时机票价格随之大涨28%。

So far, no American carrier has announced price hikes. But they are beginning to trickle in elsewhere: Air New Zealand and SAS, for instance, are among the international airlines that have recently announced fare increases tied to the rising price of jet fuel.

到目前为止，美国尚无航空公司宣布涨价，但其他地区已开始陆续提价：例如，新西兰航空和北欧航空等国际航司近期已宣布因航空燃油价格上涨上调票价。

For airlines today, the cost of flying has sharply increased, but will they pass those costs on to consumers and, if so, how? We asked experts to weigh in on the potential effects travelers may feel.

如今，对航空公司而言，飞行成本已大幅上升，但它们会将这些成本转嫁给乘客吗？如果会，又会以何种方式？我们请教了专家，分析旅客可能感受到的潜在影响。

How will higher oil prices affect the cost of a ticket?

油价上涨将如何影响机票价格？

Fuel is the second-largest expense, after labor, for an airline. In the United States, most carriers stopped the practice of hedging against oil spikes long ago, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations.

燃油是航空公司仅次于人力成本的第二大支出。在美国，多数航司早已停止对油价上涨进行对冲操作，这使其更容易受到市场波动影响。

Asked last week at an academic event about rising airfares linked to surging oil prices, United Airlines’ chief executive, Scott Kirby, said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would “probably start quick.” (Asked for comment, a representative for United said it had “nothing additional to add.”)

上周在一场学术活动中，美联航首席执行官斯科特·柯比被问及与油价飙升相关的机票涨价问题时表示，燃油成本上涨对机票价格的影响“可能很快就会开始显现”。（美联航发言人在被要求置评时表示“没有更多补充”。）

“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares,” said Henry H. Harteveldt, the president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

“他这话一出口，就等于给所有航空公司开了涨价的绿灯，”旧金山旅行研究咨询公司大气研究集团总裁亨利·哈特维尔特说。

But how — and how much — costs may rise is unclear. Mr. Harteveldt noted that airlines have many ways to recoup ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket increase, including charging more for tickets in business and first class, where the pinch may sting less; raising fees for ancillary services like checking bags or assigning seats; eliminating or reducing the number of seats sold for the lowest fares on certain routes; consolidating departures; or increasing fuel surcharges on international flights.

但成本会以何种方式上涨、上涨多少，目前仍不明确。哈特维尔特指出，除全面涨价外，航空公司还有多种方式弥补不断攀升的燃油成本，包括提高价格敏感度较低的商务舱、头等舱票价；提高托运行李、选座等附加服务费用；取消或减少部分航线的最低价座位；合并航班；提高国际航班燃油附加费。

“All of these are ways airlines can push travelers into paying more for flights,” he said.

“所有这些方式都可以让旅客为航班支付更多费用，”他说。

Are all airlines affected equally?

所有航空公司受到的影响都一样吗？

Wherever they fly, low-cost carriers are more likely to suffer compared with competitors.

无论航线如何，低成本航空公司受到的冲击都将大于竞争对手。

“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points. “Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don’t have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”

“精神航空、边疆航空这类廉航处境最为艰难，”旅行积分比价服务Points Path创始人兼首席执行官朱利安·基尔表示。“设有高端舱位的航司可以将部分燃油成本转嫁给商务舱和头等舱旅客，这类乘客对涨价相对不敏感。但廉航没有这种缓冲，意味着乘客将承担全部冲击。”

But that doesn’t mean major global carriers won’t have to adjust prices. The efficiency of planes, often related to their age or engineering, and the distance they fly help determine how much fuel an airline consumes.

但这并不意味着大型国际航司无需调整价格。飞机的燃油效率（通常与机龄和设计相关）以及飞行距离都会决定航空公司的燃油消耗量。

“In addition to rising jet fuel prices, the war is creating a double hit for airlines, as many international flights now also have to detour around closed airspace, which means burning even more fuel,” said Mr. Kheel.

“除了航空燃油价格上涨，战争还给航空公司带来双重打击——许多国际航班现在必须绕开关闭的空域，这意味着消耗更多燃油，”基尔说。

The disruptions, restrictions and closures in Gulf cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — critical aviation hubs for global traffic — are likely to affect pricing as well as routing. To avoid transiting through that region, international fliers are increasingly turning to Europe, which may tighten availability there and push prices higher.

迪拜、阿布扎比、多哈等海湾城市关键航空枢纽的混乱、管制与关闭也可能影响票价与航线。为避免过境该地区，国际航班正日益转向欧洲，这可能导致欧洲航线座位紧张、价格上涨。

How long will the situation last?

这种情况会持续多久？

No one knows how long the war will last, but historically, airfares have mirrored surges in the price of oil.

没人知道战争会持续多久，但从历史来看，机票价格会紧跟油价波动。

“If you look at prices in past oil crises in 2022 and 2008, you see spikes in flight prices,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.

“回顾2022年和2008年石油危机期间的价格，就能发现机票价格都出现了飙升，”廉价机票平台Going.com创始人斯科特·凯斯说。

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed up oil prices for much of the year, when the average U.S. annual inflation rate was 8 percent. In that case, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production, which helped bring prices down, said Mr. Harteveldt.

2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了全年大部分时间的油价，当年美国平均通胀率达8%。哈特维尔特表示，当时石油输出国组织增加了产量，帮助压低了价格。

“We don’t know the end game with this war,” he said.

“我们不知道当前这场战争最终会走向何方，”他说。

Postwar recovery may add to the costs.

战后恢复也可能增加成本。

“The biggest factor impacting airfares is how long this all lasts,” said Mr. Keyes, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet from the Persian Gulf, which handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil supply. “The longer the shutdown, the longer it takes to get going.”

“影响机票价格的最大因素是这一切会持续多久，”凯斯说，并提到承担全球约20%石油供应的波斯湾出口通道霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。“封锁时间越长，恢复正常就越慢。”

Should I buy an airline ticket now?

我应该现在就买机票吗？

Consumers may have to hedge their bets on upcoming summer travel. The best way to do that is to ensure you are booking a penalty-free flight that will offer a flight credit or refund if you cancel. That way, in the best-case scenario, if the airfare falls, you can cancel and use the credit to rebook at a lower airfare.

消费者可能需要为即将到来的夏季旅行做好风险对冲。最佳方式是预订可免退改手续费的机票——若取消可获得机票代金券或退款。这样一来，在最佳情况下，如果后续票价下跌，你可以取消订单，用代金券重新预订更低价格的航班。

Most legacy carriers, but not their low-cost peers, still offer tickets that, if changed, give you a credit to use on a future flight, usually within a year. This does not apply to most basic economy fares, so book carefully.

大多数传统航空公司（但不包括廉航）仍提供改签后可获未来一年内有效代金券的机票。此政策不适用于大多数基础经济舱票价，因此预订时需留意。

“If you’re concerned about the price dropping later, you’re not out of luck,” said Mr. Keyes. “All things considered, I would be booking sooner rather than later but also checking the price after booking to see if it drops.”

“如果你担心之后价格下跌，也并非毫无办法，”凯斯说。“综合考虑，我建议尽早预订，但预订后也要关注价格是否下跌。”