For Travis McMaster, the general manager of Cocoon USA, an outdoor and travel brand, ordering products from his foreign suppliers this year has been a lot like gambling.

对于户外旅行品牌Cocoon USA的总经理特拉维斯·麦克马斯特而言，今年从海外供应商处采购产品的过程如同一场赌博。

After reading the news of a trade truce between the United States and China last week, Mr. McMaster was relieved to have finally gotten a win. He estimated that President Trump’s decision to lower tariffs on Chinese products would save him roughly $30,000 in tariff costs on a shipment the company has coming in from China this week — enough to perhaps hire another seasonal employee in the small Washington town where Cocoon is based.

上周看到中美达成贸易休战的新闻后，麦克马斯特终于松了口气，感觉迎来了一场胜利。他估算，特朗普总统下调中国商品关税的决定能为公司本周从中国进口的一批货物节省约3万美元关税成本——这笔钱足够在Cocoon总部所在的华盛顿州小镇再雇佣一名季节性员工。

But the tariff deal came with a downside. Cocoon had begun shifting some production to India this spring to avoid high tariffs on China. But in the past few months, Mr. Trump has raised tariffs on India by 50 percent, while dropping tariffs on Cocoon’s Chinese goods to 30 percent, scrambling the company’s plans.

但这份关税协议也带来了负面影响。为规避中国商品的高额关税，Cocoon今年春季已开始将部分生产转移至印度。然而过去几个月里，特朗普将印度进口商品关税提高了50%，同时却把Cocoon采购的中国商品关税降至30%，彻底打乱了公司的计划。

Mr. McMaster lamented the time he had spent on building up production in India. At least for the time being, he said, “I’m not going to spend any more energy trying to get out of China.”

麦克马斯特对在印度拓展生产所耗费的时间感到惋惜。他表示，至少目前来看，“我不会再花精力试图脱离中国市场了”。

After a chaotic year of tariff threats and trade deals, the United States has landed, at least temporarily, in a surprising situation. In the face of a potentially devastating trade clash with China, Mr. Trump agreed to cut in half a 20 percent tariff he had used to punish China for its role in the flow of fentanyl.

在经历了一年充满关税威胁与贸易协议的混乱局面后，美国至少暂时陷入了一种出人意料的境地。面对可能与中国爆发的毁灭性贸易冲突，特朗普同意将此前为惩罚中国在芬太尼流通中所扮演角色而征收的20%关税减半。

That has pared back U.S. tariffs on certain Chinese products to levels that are nominally near or sometimes below those he has put on products from other countries, including some allies like Switzerland, India, Brazil and Canada. According to calculations by the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff on Chinese goods has risen by 20.2 percentage points this year, compared with 17.3 percentage points for the rest of the world.

这一调整使得美国对部分中国商品的关税水平，在名义上接近甚至低于对其他国家商品的关税（包括瑞士、印度、巴西、加拿大等部分盟友）。根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的计算，今年美国对中国商品的平均有效关税提高了20.2个百分点，而对世界其他地区商品的平均有效关税仅提高了17.3个百分点。

Not every company pays the same tariff, and other calculations that include earlier tariffs on China indicate a higher overall rate. Chad P. Bown, an economist at the Peterson Institute, has calculated an average tariff rate for China of 47.6 percent, but it is not clear how that compares with U.S. tariffs on other countries.

不过，不同企业缴纳的关税并不相同，若计入前期对华关税，整体税率会更高。彼得森研究所经济学家查德·鲍恩计算得出，美国对中国商品征收的平均关税税率为47.6%，但该数据与美国对其他国家关税的对比尚不明确。

Companies that rely on doing business with China have been grateful for the tariff reduction, even as they scramble to parse what the latest deal means to them and how long it will last. Some economists and executives argue that the outcome may slow the move by companies to find alternatives to China, potentially complicating a longer-run effort by U.S. officials to reduce America’s dependence on Chinese supply chains.

依赖对中国业务的企业对关税下调表示欢迎，但同时也在紧急分析这份最新协议对自身的影响及持续时间。部分经济学家和企业高管认为，这一结果可能会减缓企业寻找中国替代市场的步伐，进而可能使美国官员减少对中国供应链依赖的长期努力变得复杂。

Many companies remain intent on diversifying where they source their products and are cautious about tying their fortunes to China over the longer term. Yet the current system of tariffs removes some of the urgency for companies to find factories outside China. It also chips away at the economic advantage that companies had expected from moving factories to Brazil, Vietnam and India.

许多企业仍打算实现采购来源多样化，对长期将自身命运与中国绑定持谨慎态度。但当前的关税体系降低了企业在海外寻找工厂的紧迫性，也削弱了企业原本期望通过将工厂迁至巴西、越南和印度所获得的经济优势。

“There isn’t a great incentive, if this is the final tariff structure, to reallocate out of China,” said Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations. He argued that the tariff differential between China and other countries was much smaller now than Mr. Trump had suggested in his 2024 campaign, when he proposed putting a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a 10 to 20 percent tariff on products from the rest of the world.

美国外交关系委员会经济学家布拉德·塞策表示：“如果这就是最终的关税结构，那么企业没有足够动力将业务迁出中国。”他认为，如今中美与美国和其他国家之间的关税差距，远小于特朗普在2024年竞选时提出的水平——当时特朗普提议对中国商品征收60%的关税，对其他国家商品征收10%至20%的关税。

“Contrary to what many in the administration are saying, they haven’t ended up with a tariff structure that really encourages relocation out of China,” Mr. Setser said.

塞策还说：“与政府内部许多人的说法相反，他们最终形成的关税结构，并没有真正起到鼓励企业迁出中国的作用。” 

The Trump administration disputed that idea, saying that its national security tariffs — which impose taxes on products like auto parts, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — would disproportionately affect China. Officials also argued that the administration was focused on ending China’s chokehold on other products, like rare earths.

特朗普政府反驳了这一观点，称其针对汽车零部件、药品、半导体等产品征收的国家安全关税，将对中国造成更大影响。官员们还表示，政府正致力于打破中国在稀土等其他产品上的垄断地位。

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement that Mr. Trump had pledged to end “America’s foreign reliance by reviving domestic manufacturing and industry.” The trade deals and trillions of dollars in investment commitments “prove that the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies are delivering on this pledge,” he said.

白宫发言人库什·德赛在声明中称，特朗普已承诺“通过重振国内制造业，结束美国对外国的依赖”。他表示，各项贸易协议以及数万亿美元的投资承诺“证明特朗普政府的贸易和关税政策正在兑现这一承诺”。

China’s ability to retaliate appears to be one reason that the country is not facing more severe tariffs, as India and Brazil are. Mr. Trump has threatened repeatedly to put triple-digit tariffs on China, but Beijing responded by hitting back at the United States where it hurt. It created a system to regulate the export of rare earth minerals and clamped down on those shipments, threatening to shutter U.S. auto plants and other factories.

中国的反制能力，似乎是它未像印度、巴西那样面临更严厉关税的原因之一。特朗普曾多次威胁要对中国商品征收三位数关税，但中国政府采取了针对性反制措施：建立稀土出口监管体系并限制稀土出口，威胁将导致美国汽车工厂及其他工厂停产。

The strategy worked. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, walked out of negotiations with lower fentanyl-related tariffs than countries like Canada, which have tried to placate Mr. Trump.

这一策略最终奏效。中国最高领导人习近平在谈判中达成的芬太尼相关关税税率，低于加拿大等试图安抚特朗普的国家。

After a meeting in South Korea last week, Mr. Trump agreed to pause new fees on Chinese ships and delay sanctions on thousands of Chinese companies, in addition to cutting a 10 percent tariff. China said it would suspend the rollout of certain rare earths restrictions for a year and return to buying U.S. soybeans. It also said it would crack down on shipments of the chemicals used to make fentanyl.

上周在韩国举行的会晤后，特朗普除了将一项10%的关税下调外，还同意暂停对中国船只征收新费用，并推迟对数千家中国企业的制裁。作为回应，中国表示将暂停实施部分稀土限制措施一年，恢复采购美国大豆，并加大对芬太尼制造所需化学品出口的打击力度。

The Numbers

数据

In the wake of last week’s agreement, Mr. Trump will have added a 20 percent tariff to all Chinese imports so far this year. That includes the 10 percent fentanyl tariff and another 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump said is directed at slowing the flow of Chinese imports into the United States.

根据上周达成的协议，特朗普政府今年已对所有中国进口商品额外征收了20%的关税。这其中包括10%的芬太尼相关关税，以及特朗普所称旨在减缓中国商品进口量的另一项10%关税。

A portion of Chinese imports also face an additional tariff of 7.5 to 25 percent left over from Mr. Trump’s first-term trade war. Chinese products are also hit by Mr. Trump’s global tariffs on industries like autos, steel and aluminum, as well as pre-existing tariffs from the World Trade Organization, and Chinese goods qualify for fewer tariff exclusions than many other countries’.

部分中国进口商品还需缴纳特朗普第一任期贸易战时遗留的7.5%至25%的额外关税。此外，中国商品还需缴纳特朗普政府针对汽车、钢铝等行业征收的全球关税，以及世界贸易组织框架下的既有关税。而且，中国商品享受的关税豁免范围远小于其他许多国家。

Although U.S. tariffs on Chinese products are high, American tariffs on certain products from other countries are now sometimes similar or higher, for reasons that make little sense.

尽管美国对中国商品的关税水平较高，但出于一些难以解释的原因，美国对部分其他国家特定商品的关税如今已达到相近甚至更高水平。

For example, Mr. Trump has imposed a 10 percent “reciprocal” tariff on exports from Britain and Australia, now the same reciprocal rate as for China. The administration says that tariff is directed at offsetting the U.S. trade deficit, but the United States runs trade surpluses with both Britain and Australia, while it racked up a nearly $300 billion trade deficit in goods with China last year.

例如，特朗普对英国、澳大利亚两国出口商品征收10%的“对等关税”，与对中国的对等关税税率持平。美国政府称此举旨在抵消美国的贸易逆差，但事实上美国对两国均存在贸易顺差，而去年美国与中国的商品贸易逆差接近3000亿美元。

The United States also runs a trade surplus with Brazil. But Mr. Trump has put a 50 percent tariff on goods from Brazil and India, amid spats over Brazil’s treatment of a former president and India’s refusal to credit Mr. Trump in making peace with Pakistan. Mr. Trump has also imposed a 39 percent tariff on Switzerland in response to the country’s trade surplus with the United States, even though much of that recent trade has been gold bullion that investors have imported to hedge against tariffs.

美国对巴西同样保持贸易顺差，但特朗普仍对巴西和印度商品征收50%的关税，原因包括美国与巴西在对待前总统问题上的分歧，以及印度拒绝承认特朗普在促成印巴和平中发挥的作用。特朗普还对瑞士商品征收39%的关税，理由是瑞士对美贸易顺差，尽管近期该国对美贸易中很大一部分是投资者为对冲关税风险而进口的黄金。

Canada, America’s closest ally, faces a 35 percent tariff that Mr. Trump imposed in part because of his claim that Canada is a significant source of fentanyl for the United States. While in practice many goods coming from Canada are exempted through the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the nominal rate is still much higher than China’s 10 percent fentanyl tariff, despite far more fentanyl coming from China than Canada.

作为美国最亲密的盟友，加拿大面临特朗普政府征收的35%的关税，部分原因是特朗普声称加拿大是美国芬太尼的重要来源地。尽管实际上通过《美墨加协定》，许多加拿大输美商品获得了豁免，但名义关税税率仍远高于中国10%的芬太尼相关关税——而来自中国的芬太尼远多于加拿大。

Countries in Southeast Asia, where many companies have moved their factories after leaving China, typically now face a reciprocal tariff of 19 or 20 percent, the same as or slightly lower than the base line tariff on China. But economists said countries like Vietnam and Cambodia could be heavily affected by the administration’s plans to put an additional tax on goods that are made with a certain proportion of Chinese content.

许多企业撤离中国后将工厂迁至东南亚国家，而这些东南亚国家如今通常面临19%或20%的对等关税，与针对中国的基准关税相同或略低。但经济学家表示，越南和柬埔寨等国可能因美国政府计划对含特定比例中国成分的商品加征关税而遭受严重影响。

A Range of Strategies

多种策略

For many companies that have spent years planning an exodus from China, an overall tariff reduction of 10 percent on goods made in China is not big enough to lead to any sudden strategic changes. Companies also remain wary that the U.S. trade truce with China could quickly crumble, as it has before.

对于许多多年来一直计划撤离中国的企业而言，中国商品整体10%的关税下调幅度，不足以促使它们做出突然的战略调整。企业还担心，美国与中国的贸易休战可能会像以往一样迅速破裂。

“Ten percent isn’t quite enough to move the needle,” said Cameron Johnson, a supply chain consultant in Shanghai. He said many of his clients are still waiting to see how things play out when Mr. Trump meets with Mr. Xi again in China next year.

上海供应链顾问卡梅伦·约翰逊表示：“10%的降幅不足以改变局面。”他透露，自己的许多客户仍在观望，等待明年特朗普与中国国家领导人再次会晤后的局势发展。

“There is a bit of skepticism about whether this will hold. You’re not going to move your factory or production for six months and a 10 percent reduction,” Mr. Johnson said, referring to a comment Mr. Trump made last week about visiting Beijing in April.

“人们对这份协议能否持续持怀疑态度。不会有人因为短短六个月和10%的关税降幅，就贸然迁移工厂或生产线，”约翰逊在提及特朗普上周所说的4月访华计划时说。

Companies, particularly larger ones, have found ways to weather the volatility in the U.S.-China relationship by diversifying their supply chains through partnerships with factories in neighboring countries like Vietnam, or setting up their own factories outside China. Across southern Vietnam in Ho Chi Minh City, dozens of sprawling new industrial parks have popped up amid the influx of demand for a factory alternative to China.

企业——尤其是大型企业——已找到应对美中关系波动的方法：通过与越南等周边国家的工厂建立合作关系，或在海外自建工厂，实现供应链多元化。在越南南部的胡志明市，随着对替代中国工厂的需求激增，数十个大型新工业园区应运而生。

“I don’t think you’ll see companies moving out of Vietnam, India and elsewhere to go back to China. It’s the big number that actually matters,” said Adam Sitkoff, the executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi.

河内的美国商会会长亚当·西特科夫表示：“我认为不会有企业从越南、印度等地迁回中国。真正重要的是整体大趋势。”