President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday refused to rule out using military force to retake the Panama Canal, which was returned by the U.S. to that country’s control decades ago.

周二，候任总统特朗普拒绝排除使用武力夺回巴拿马运河的可能性。美国在几十年前将运河的控制权交还给了巴拿马。

Last month, Mr. Trump falsely accused Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and of overcharging American ships.

上月，特朗普错误地指责巴拿马允许中国士兵控制这条连接大西洋和太平洋的重要航道，并对美国船只收费过高。

He has also claimed Panama charges U.S. vessels “exorbitant prices,” and warned that if they are not reduced after he takes office next month, he will demand that the United States be granted control of the canal “in full, quickly and without question.”

他声称巴拿马向美国船只收取“高昂的费用”，并警告，如果他下个月上任后这些费用不降低，他将要求美国“全面、迅速、毫无疑问地”获得对巴拿马运河的控制权。

While it is unclear what prompted Mr. Trump’s recent obsession with the Panama Canal, some Republicans have long objected to a decades-old treaty that turned the shipping lane over to Panamanian control. When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he said the people of the United States were the canal’s “rightful owners” and brought audiences to their feet with the line: “We bought it; we paid for it; we built it.”

虽然尚不清楚特朗普最近为什么对巴拿马运河如此痴迷，但一些共和党人长期以来一直反对一项有几十年历史的条约，该条约将这条航道交给巴拿马控制。里根在竞选总统时表示，美国人民是该运河的“合法所有者”，他说：“我们买下了它；我们付了钱；我们建造了它，”这句话令观众起立鼓掌。

Who owns the Panama Canal?

谁拥有巴拿马运河？

20世纪初巴拿马运河建成后，美国政府对其进行了数十年的管理。

After a failed attempt by the French to construct a canal, it was ultimately built by the United States between 1904 and 1914. And the U.S. government managed the canal for several decades.

在法国人的建造尝试失败后，运河最终由美国在1904年至1914年间建成。美国政府在几十年管理着这条运河。

The U.S. also played a role in the creation of the state of Panama. At the beginning of the 20th century, the isthmus of Panama was part of Colombia. When Colombia rejected a proposed canal treaty, the U.S. government encouraged a rebellion. Colombia’s northern provinces eagerly seceded, forming the Republic of Panama. The United States Navy then kept Colombian troops from suppressing the rebellion.

美国在巴拿马的建国过程中也发挥了作用。20世纪初，巴拿马地峡是哥伦比亚的一部分。后者拒绝接受一项运河条约提议后，美国政府怂恿了一场叛乱。哥伦比亚北部的几个省份迫不及待地分离出去，成立了巴拿马共和国。美国海军随后阻止了镇压叛乱的哥伦比亚军队。

U.S. control of the canal created significant tensions with Panama. In 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the U.S.-controlled canal zone.

美国对运河的控制造成了与巴拿马的严重紧张关系。1964年，美国控制的运河区爆发了反美骚乱。

The riots led to the renegotiation of the Panama Canal treaties. In 1977, U.S. President Jimmy Carter and the Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. The agreements guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of joint custody, the treaties called for the United States to relinquish control over the canal by the year 2000.

骚乱导致了巴拿马运河条约的重新谈判。1977年，美国总统吉米·卡特和巴拿马领导人奥马尔·埃弗拉因·托里霍斯签署了《托里霍斯—卡特条约》。这些协定保证了巴拿马运河的永久中立性。在一段时间的共同监管之后，条约要求美国在2000年之前放弃对运河的控制。

Panama took full control in 1999, and has since operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority.

巴拿马于1999年完全控制了该运河，此后一直通过巴拿马运河管理局运营。

Mr. Carter, who died on Dec. 29, always considered the treaties to be signature achievements, and they figured prominently in his obituary.

于12月29日去世的卡特一直认为，这些条约是他的标志性成就，在他的讣告中占据了显著位置。

“Through a bizarre accident of timing, we now have one president fantasizing about taking back the canal at just the time the world recognizes the canal transfer as an important part of a late president’s legacy,” said James Fallows, who was Mr. Carter’s speechwriter at the time and accompanied the president on that 1978 trip to Panama.

“出现了一个时间上的奇怪巧合，我们现在有一位总统在幻想收回运河，而此时全世界都认识到运河的移交是一位已故总统遗产的重要组成部分，”詹姆斯·法洛斯说。他当时是卡特的演讲稿撰写人，并陪同卡特在1978年访问巴拿马。

How has Panama responded?

巴拿马作何反应？

In a statement of rebuke to Mr. Trump last month, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama wrote “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA.”

在上个月一份谴责特朗普的声明中，巴拿马总统何塞·劳尔·穆利诺写道，“巴拿马运河及其邻近地区的每一寸土地都属于巴拿马。”

Mr. Mulino also said U.S. vessels are not being overcharged. Rates being charged to ships and naval vessels, he insisted, are “not on a whim.”

穆利诺还说，美国船只没有被多收费用。他坚称，向船只和海军舰艇收取的费率“并非想收多少就收多少”。

Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, though they would differ based on ship size. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority, and take into account market conditions, international competition, operating and maintenance costs, Mr. Mulino said.

巴拿马官员表示，所有国家都要缴纳同样的费用，但根据船只大小有所不同。穆利诺说，它们是由巴拿马运河管理局在公开会议上确定的，并考虑了市场状况、国际竞争、运营和维护成本。

Rates have gone up recently, however. That’s because starting in 2023, Panama experienced severe drought, driven by a combination of El Niño and climate change, which Mr. Trump has called a hoax. With water levels at Gatun Lake, the principal hydrological reserve for the canal, at historically low levels, authorities reduced shipping through the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water.

然而，最近费率有所上升。这是因为从2023年开始，在厄尔尼诺现象和气候变化的共同作用下，巴拿马经历了严重的干旱，特朗普称气候变化是一场骗局。由于运河的主要蓄水地加通湖的水位处于历史低位，当局减少了通过运河的船只，以保护湖中的淡水。

A Trump spokeswoman said that because the United States is the biggest user of the canal, the increase in fees hits its ships the most.

特朗普的发言人表示，由于美国是该运河的最大用户，费用的增加对美国船只的影响最大。

What is China’s role in the Panama Canal?

中国在巴拿马运河建设中发挥了什么作用？

运河的加勒比海入海口附近的加通水闸，摄于今年早些时候。

Chinese soldiers are not, as Mr. Trump has claimed, “operating” the Panama Canal.

中国士兵并没有像特朗普所说的那样在“操作”巴拿马运河。

“There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God,” Mr. Mulino said in a speech Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”

“看在上帝的份上，运河里没有中国士兵，”穆利诺在周四的一次演讲中说。“全世界都可以免费访问运河。”

A Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison Holdings, does manage two ports at the canal’s entrances. And some experts have said that does raise valid competitive and security concerns for the United States.

总部位于香港的长江和记实业有限公司确实管理着运河入口处的两个港口。一些专家表示，这确实引起了美国在竞争和安全方面的合理担忧。

Ryan C. Berg, the director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, noted that CK Hutchison would likely have data on all ships coming through the Panama Canal. China has been using its shipping and maritime operations to gather foreign intelligence and conduct espionage.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心美洲项目主任瑞安·伯格指出，长江和记可能拥有所有通过巴拿马运河的船只的数据。中国一直在利用其航运和海上行动收集外国情报和进行间谍活动。

“China exercises, or could exercise, a certain element of control even absent some military conflagration,” Mr. Berg said. “I think there is reason to be worried.”

“即使在没有军事冲突的情况下，中国也可以行使或可能行使某种控制权，”伯格说。“我认为有理由担心。”

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Tuesday that China “will as always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.

中国外交部发言人毛宁周二表示，“中方将一如既往尊重巴拿马对运河的主权。”

China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized the island as part of China, a major win for Beijing.

中国是巴拿马运河的第二大使用者，仅次于美国。2017年，巴拿马与台湾断绝外交关系，承认台湾是中国的一部分，这对北京来说是一个重大胜利。

Can the United States reassert control?

美国能重新控制运河吗？

Not easily.

并不容易。

Mr. Mulino has made clear the Panama Canal is not for sale. He noted that the treaties established permanent neutrality of the canal and “guaranteeing its open and safe operation for all nations.” And the Senate ratified the Panama Canal treaties in 1978.

穆利诺明确表示，巴拿马运河是非卖品。他指出，这些条约确立了运河的永久中立地位，并且“保证运河对所有国家开放和安全运行”。参议院于1978年批准了巴拿马运河条约。

Mick Mulvaney, Mr. Trump’s former chief of staff, suggested that the provocations were merely part of a negotiating tactic to get rates down.

特朗普的前幕僚长米克·马尔瓦尼表示，这些挑衅行为只是谈判策略的一部分，目的是降低费用。

“You know, I don’t envision American troops going in to retake the canal, but you got to think that someone is out there scratching their head going, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?’” Mr. Mulvaney said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.

“你知道，我不认为美国军队会去夺回运河，但你能想到有人现在正在挠头，‘唐纳德·特朗普会疯到做出这种事吗？’”周二，马尔瓦尼在《国会山》节目上说。

Mr. Berg said the neutrality agreement made it unlikely that Panama would even be able to grant special rates to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and likely eager to help the incoming Trump administration deal with issues like illegal immigration.

伯格说，中立协议使巴拿马甚至不太可能给美国提供特殊费率。他还指出，穆利诺“非常亲美”，很可能渴望帮助即将上任的特朗普政府处理非法移民等问题。

“President Mulino is going to be a great ally with the United States,” Mr. Berg said. “We should not want this to devolve into some kind of political fight because we’re going to need President Mulino on a number of other issues.”

“穆利诺总统将成为美国的一大盟友，”伯格说。“我们不希望这演变成某种政治斗争，因为我们在许多其他问题上都需要穆利诺总统。”

But there is, as Mr. Trump has threatened, a military option. Mr. Trump could as president order an invasion of Panama. Under the terms of its constitution, Panama has no army. But experts dismissed Mr. Trump’s threat on Tuesday as empty intimidation.

但正如特朗普所威胁的那样，还有军事选项。作为总统，特朗普可以下令入侵巴拿马。根据宪法规定，巴拿马没有军队。但专家们认为，特朗普周二的威胁是虚张声势。

“If the U.S. wanted to flout international law and act like Vladimir Putin, the U.S. could invade Panama and recover the canal,” said Benjamin Gaden, director of the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program in Washington. “No one would see it as a legitimate act, and it would bring not only grievous damage to their image, but instability to the canal.”

“如果美国想藐视国际法，像普京那样行事，美国可以入侵巴拿马，收回运河，”华盛顿威尔逊中心拉丁美洲项目主任本杰明·加登说。“没有人会认为这是合法的行为，这不仅会给他们的形象带来严重损害，还会给运河带来不稳定。”