Ukrainian and European officials sprang into a frenzy over the weekend to alter President Trump’s new 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, developed with input from Russia and heavily weighted toward the Kremlin.

上周末，乌克兰和欧洲官员紧急行动，试图修改特朗普总统新推出的28点乌克兰和平计划。该计划在制定过程中听取了俄罗斯的意见，明显偏向克里姆林宫。

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, for his part, sat back and watched.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京则选择静观事态发展。

For the Russian leader, a Kremlin-friendly peace plan that enshrines Ukraine’s perpetual subordination and vulnerability would be a win. So would a failed process that leads Mr. Trump to pull remaining support for Ukraine and further antagonize European allies.

对这位俄罗斯领导人而言，一份偏向克里姆林宫、确保乌克兰处于永久从属与脆弱地位的和平计划是一种胜利。即便和平进程失败，导致特朗普停止剩余的对乌援助，进一步疏远欧洲盟友，对他来说也同样有利。

U.S. and Ukrainian officials reported progress on talks aimed at amending the proposal, saying they had made some unspecified changes. By late Monday, the officials had returned home.

美国和乌克兰官员称，针对该修改计划的谈判已取得进展，表示已作出部分未具体说明的调整。截至周一晚间，参与谈判的官员已回国。

It is unclear if Mr. Putin will accept those changes. On Friday, in a video conference with security officials, the Russian leader said the 28-point plan could be the foundation for a peace settlement, pending “substantive and meaningful discussion,” or Russia could keep pressing its case in Ukraine by force.

目前尚不清楚普京是否会接受这些修改。上周五，这位俄罗斯领导人在与安全官员举行的视频会议上表示，这份28点计划可作为和平解决方案的基础，但需经过“实质性且有意义的磋商”；否则，俄罗斯将继续通过武力在乌克兰推进自身主张。

More Ukrainian cities will fall to Russian troops, “perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably,” Mr. Putin warned. He said such a path “also suits us,” because Moscow was content to pursue its interests “through armed confrontation.”

普京警告称，更多乌克兰城市将被俄军攻陷，“或许不会如我们所愿那般迅速，但这是必然趋势”。他表示，这种方式“我们同样可以接受”，因为俄罗斯愿意通过“武装对抗”来维护自身利益。

上周在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，一名居民与母亲站在遭俄军空袭损毁的建筑外。

His message: His authoritarian system can outlast the resources and will of its adversaries.

他的言外之意是：他的威权体制让他拥有比对手更耐久的资源和意志。

“The West has entered a pain contest with Vladimir Putin. Who can withstand more pain?” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “In this competition, Putin can be tough as nails, and his system can be tough as nails.”

“西方正在与弗拉基米尔·普京进行忍耐力的比拼，看谁能承受更多痛苦，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫表示。“在这场较量中，普京本人及他所建立的体制都将坚不可摧。”

The Ukrainians are just as tough, Mr. Gabuev noted, but “they are under-resourced,” suffering from a dearth of military personnel, weaponry and money, as well as a lack of unified Western support.

加布耶夫指出，乌克兰方面同样意志坚定，但是“他们资源匮乏”，面临军事人员、武器装备和资金短缺的困境，同时还缺乏西方世界的统一支持。

Mr. Putin’s ability to continue waging the war isn’t limitless. His economy is facing trouble, particularly after a significant decline in oil revenue, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s recent sanctions. Moscow is raising taxes to cover the war effort and has pruned next year’s military budget. Russia’s forces are on the front foot, but the advance has been slow and costly in lives and matériel.

普京持续发动战争的能力并非不受限制。俄罗斯经济正陷入困境，尤其是石油收入大幅下滑，而特朗普政府近期实施的制裁更是加剧了这一局面。莫斯科正通过增税来支撑战争开支，并削减了明年的军事预算。尽管俄军目前占据攻势，但推进缓慢，且付出了惨重的人员伤亡和物资损耗代价。

Still, Mr. Putin believes, compared to Ukraine, that time is on his side. And while he appears satisfied to let the peace process either succeed or fail, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is under immense pressure on multiple fronts, as Mr. Trump pushes him to accept a settlement plan by Thursday.

即便如此，普京仍认为，相较于乌克兰，时间在自己这边。他似乎对和平进程的成败都持无所谓的态度，但乌克兰总统泽连斯基却身陷多方面的巨大压力——特朗普正逼迫他最晚周四前接受这份和平方案。

莫斯科某加油站，1月。美国近期实施的制裁针对俄罗斯两大石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司。

The battlefield situation has been deteriorating for Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky has been weakened domestically by a ballooning corruption scandal. And Ukraine is running low on cash to sustain its defenses and economy, with its European allies vacillating about using billions of dollars in frozen Russian money to fund Kyiv.

乌克兰方面的战局持续恶化。泽连斯基因不断发酵的腐败丑闻在国内支持度下滑，且乌克兰维持国防与经济运转的资金即将耗尽。对于是否动用冻结的数十亿美元俄罗斯资产援助基辅，欧洲梦游始终犹豫不决。

Mr. Trump has also begun aiming invective again at Ukraine, accusing Mr. Zelensky this past weekend of expressing “ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS.”

特朗普近期也再度对乌克兰口出恶言，上周末指责泽连斯基“对我们的付出毫无感激之情”。

Those efforts produced a 28-point plan that underscored Mr. Putin’s unwillingness to bend on the war, and that Ukraine and its European allies are now pushing to amend.

此前双方磋商形成的28点计划凸显了普京在战争问题上寸步不让的立场，如今乌克兰及其欧洲盟友正全力推动对计划的修改。

Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy aide, said on Monday that many “but not all” of the plan’s positions were acceptable to Russia, but required detailed discussion. He said that European counterproposals that have been circulating were not constructive.

克里姆林宫外交政策顾问尤里·乌沙科夫周一表示，俄罗斯认可该计划中的“多项而非全部”主张，但需展开详细磋商。他还称，目前流传的欧洲提案“不具建设性”。

Most of the provisions in the 28-point proposal reflected Mr. Putin’s longstanding demands, including a legally enshrined ban on NATO membership for Ukraine. Still, it is not clear that Mr. Putin would accept the plan even in its original form. Some smaller points represent a comedown from previous Kremlin proposals, such as a cap on Ukraine’s military strength at 600,000, versus the 100,000 that Moscow proposed in 2022 talks.

这份28点计划的大部分条款都反映了普京长期以来的核心诉求，其中包括以法律形式永久禁止乌克兰加入北约。即便如此，普京是否会接受计划的原始版本仍不明朗。部分次要条款相较克里姆林宫此前的提案有所让步，例如将乌克兰军队规模上限设定为60万人，而2022年谈判时俄方提出的上限仅为10万人。

In his remarks on Friday, Mr. Putin spun it as if he had already made concessions. He said that when he met with Mr. Trump in August in Alaska, the Americans had asked the Russians to show flexibility, and that he was “ready” to do so.

在上周五的讲话中，普京将这些调整包装成己方的让步。他表示，今年8月在阿拉斯加与特朗普会面时，美方曾请求俄方展现灵活性，而他当时表示已经“准备好”这样做。

By this, Mr. Putin was most likely referring to the question of territory. Russia’s negotiators dropped their initial demand that Ukraine hand over the entirety of the four regions that Moscow “annexed” in 2022, even though Russia doesn’t control huge portions of that land, including two regional capitals.

普京所指的很可能是领土问题。俄罗斯谈判代表已放弃最初要求乌克兰交出2022年俄方“吞并”的全部四个州的诉求——尽管俄方实际控制区并不涵盖包括两个地区首府在内的广阔区域。

特朗普总统与普京总统于8月在阿拉斯加会晤，两位领导人就乌克兰战争进行了讨论。

In Alaska, Mr. Putin expressed a willingness to stop fighting if, in addition to accepting his other demands, Ukraine handed over just the part of the Donetsk region it still held. The 28-point plan calls for Ukraine to withdraw from that territory, which would become a “demilitarized zone” recognized as Russian land.

在阿拉斯加会谈中，普京曾表示，若乌克兰在接受其他所有要求基础上，还交出仍在其控制下的顿涅茨克部分地区，俄方愿意停火。此次28点计划明确要求乌克兰撤出该区域，该地区将成为被认定为俄罗斯领土的“非军事区”。

Because Mr. Putin has portrayed his war domestically as a rescue operation for the Russian-speaking people of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk, it would be difficult to sell a victory at home that does not result in the capture of the rest of Donetsk. Russia already controls Luhansk.

由于普京在俄罗斯国内一直将这场战争宣传为“拯救顿涅茨克及毗邻卢甘斯克地区俄族民众”的行动，若无法夺取顿涅茨克剩余领土，他很难向国内民众宣告战争胜利。目前卢甘斯克已完全处于俄罗斯控制之下。

Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said it remained to be seen whether Mr. Putin would be willing to compromise. Mr. Putin could be aiming, Mr. Meister said, to cleave Mr. Trump from the Ukrainians and the Europeans, leaving Russia with an easier path to subjugate Ukraine by force.

德国对外关系委员会俄罗斯问题分析师斯特凡·迈斯特表示，普京是否愿意真正妥协仍有待观察。他认为，普京的真实意图或许是离间特朗普与乌克兰及欧洲的关系，为俄罗斯通过武力征服乌克兰扫清障碍。

“Putin’s calculation is he hopes that Trump gets frustrated with Zelensky and backtracks with any kind of support, and if there is no intelligence sharing or long-range missiles, the Europeans can’t replace it,” Mr. Meister said.

“普京的算盘是，希望特朗普对泽连斯基失去耐心，进而停止一切形式的援助。一旦失去情报共享和远程导弹支持，欧洲方面根本无力填补这一空缺，”迈斯特说道。

Ultimately, Mr. Meister said, Mr. Putin “wants to break Ukraine.”

他总结道，普京的最终目标“就是摧毁乌克兰”。

周日在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔市，人们为上周俄罗斯袭击的遇难者举行葬礼。